• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario-based approach

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시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 보령시 가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가 (Evaluation of hydrologic risk of drought in Boryeong according to climate change scenarios using scenario-neutral approach)

  • 김지영;한영만;서승범;김대하;김태웅
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제57권3호
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2024
  • 기후위기에 선제적으로 대비하기 위해서는 기후변화에 따른 영향을 예측 및 분석하고, 이를 바탕으로 기후위기 적응과 관련한 정책과 전략을 수립할 필요가 있다. 이를 위해 기후변화를 고려해야 하나, 기존 연구 방법인 시나리오 리드 접근법에서 연구자들은 기후변화 대표 시나리오를 선택하여 활용하기 때문에, 예측된 결과의 불확실성이 크고 신뢰도가 낮다. 이러한 연구 결과는 기후변화 관련된 수자원 정책 및 설계기준에 반영되는 데 한계가 있다. 따라서 기후변화로 인해 발생가능한 변화 범위를 고려하는 시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 보령시를 대상으로 총 343개의 기후스트레스 시계열을 생성한 뒤 이변량 가뭄빈도분석을 통해 재현기간을 산정하고 가뭄에 대한 수문학적 위험도를 산정하였다. 분석결과, SSP1-2.6 18개 및 SSP5-8.5에 18개에 대해 최대 재현기간의 가뭄이 20년 내에 발생할 수문학적 위험도는 0.15±0.025, 50년 내에 발생할 수문학적 위험도는 0.3125±0.0625 사이로 나타났다. 따라서 보령시에서는 해당 범위의 수문학적 위험도를 고려하여 가뭄 정책 및 대책 수립이 필요하다.

Integrated Flood Risk Management through Modelling of Nature Based Solutions

  • Bastola, Shiksha;Kareem, Kola Yusuff;Park, Kiddo;Jung, Younghun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.160-160
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    • 2022
  • Floods are the most common natural disasters and are annually causing severe destructions worldwide. Human activities, along with expected increased extreme precipitation patterns as a result of climate change enhance the future potential of floods. There are proven evidence that infrastructure based responses to flood disaster is no longer achieving optimum mitigation and have created a false sense of security. Nature-based solutions(NBS) is a widely accepted sustainable and efficient approach for disaster risk reduction and involves the protection, restoration, or management of natural and semi-natural ecosystems to tackle the climate and natural crisis. Adoption of NBS in decision-making, especially in developing nations is limited due to a lack of sufficient scenario-based studies, research, and technical knowledge. This study explores the knowledge gap and challenges on NBS adoption with case study of developing nation, specially for flood management, by the study of multiple scenario analysis in the context of climate, land-use change, and policies. Identification and quantification of the strength of natural ecosystems for flood resilience and water management can help to prioritize NBS in policymaking leading to sustainable measures for integrated flood management.

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Vision-Based Relative State Estimation Using the Unscented Kalman Filter

  • Lee, Dae-Ro;Pernicka, Henry
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.24-36
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    • 2011
  • A new approach for spacecraft absolute attitude estimation based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is extended to relative attitude estimation and navigation. This approach for nonlinear systems has faster convergence than the approach based on the standard extended Kalman filter (EKF) even with inaccurate initial conditions in attitude estimation and navigation problems. The filter formulation employs measurements obtained from a vision sensor to provide multiple line(-) of(-) sight vectors from the spacecraft to another spacecraft. The line-of-sight measurements are coupled with gyro measurements and dynamic models in an UKF to determine relative attitude, position and gyro biases. A vector of generalized Rodrigues parameters is used to represent the local error-quaternion between two spacecraft. A multiplicative quaternion-error approach is derived from the local error-quaternion, which guarantees the maintenance of quaternion unit constraint in the filter. The scenario for bounded relative motion is selected to verify this extended application of the UKF. Simulation results show that the UKF is more robust than the EKF under realistic initial attitude and navigation error conditions.

Application plan for radiological exposure model using virtual reality-based radiological exercise system

  • Lee, Dewhey;Lee, Byung Il;Park, Younwon;Kim, Dohyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제50권5호
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    • pp.745-750
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    • 2018
  • New exercise technology such as the virtual reality (VR)-based exercise system is required to meet soaring demand for target participants in exercises and to alleviate the difficulties in personnel mobilization through an alternative approach to the exercise system. In a previous study, event tree methodologies were introduced in setting up an exercise scenario of a VR-based radiological exercise system. In the scenario, the locations at which major events occur are rephrased as nodes, routes as paths, and public response actions as protective actions or contents of an exercise at individual locations. In the study, a model for estimating effective doses to the participants is proposed to evaluate the exercise system, using the effective dose rates at particular times and locations derived from a computer program. The effective dose received by a student when she/he follows a successful route is about a half of the dose received when she/he does not follow the exercise guide directions. In addition, elapsed time to finish an exercise when following a successful route is less than one-third of the time spent to finish an exercise when following the guide's directions.

Self-Organization for Multi-Agent Groups

  • Kim, Dong-Hun
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.333-342
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents a framework for the self-organization of swarm systems based on coupled nonlinear oscillators (CNOs). In this scheme, multiple agents in a swarm self-organize to flock and arrange themselves as a group using CNOs, which are able to keep a certain distance by the attractive and repulsive forces among different agents. A theoretical approach of flocking behavior by CNOs and a design guideline of CNO parameters are proposed. Finally, the formation scenario for cooperative multi-agent groups is investigated to demonstrate group behaviors such as aggregation, migration, homing and so on. The task for each group in this scenario is to perform a series of processes such as gathering into a whole group or splitting into two groups, and then to return to the base while avoiding collision with agents in different groups and maintaining the formation of each group.

Service Scenarios for Green House Gas Monitoring Service over NGN

  • Choi, Sam-Gil;Kim, Dong-Il;Lee, Soong-Hee
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.401-404
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    • 2011
  • Considerations for green house gas (GHG) monitoring over next generation network (NGN) are regarded as a green convergence service for the successful reduction of GHG emission leading to resolve global warming issue in that NGN is expected to provide secure connections to fixed-and-mobile converged (FMC) features. Model-based scenario approach is an appropriate way to standardize and actualize the desired service. This paper first describes the service scenario of GHG monitoring service over NGN.

시스템 아키텍처 설계 방법론에 기반한 무인운전 경량전철 차량의 화재대응 시나리오 생성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Fire Response Scenarios Generation of Unmanned Light Rail Transit with Systems Engineering Architecture Design Methodology)

  • 한석윤;김주욱;김영민
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2015
  • Modern systems development becomes more and more complicated due to the need on the ever-increasing capability of the systems. In addition to the complexity issue, safety concern is also increasing since the malfunctions of the systems under development may result in the accidents in both the test and evaluation phase and the operation phase. Light rail transit(LRT) with passenger capacity between bus and subway is driven by an unmanned control, so safety issues of LRT in emergency shall be considered more carefully than other rolling stock. Modern railway system is a complex system and many actions in emergency are required. In this view, interoperability approach is effective to identify the related elements in emergency. In this paper, we propose the method to generate the fire response scenario of unmann ed LRT based on the outputs of systems engineering architecture design methodology. The proposed method is could be contributed to establish more reliable and applicable fire response scenario.

지구온난화에 의한 가정용 전력에너지의 소비평가 (An Assessment of the Residential Electric Energy Consumption Induced by Global Warming)

  • 임한철;변영화;권영태;전종갑
    • 대기
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2008
  • This study provides an impact assesment of climate change on energy consumption, based on active-deal scenario. This approach assumes that the amount of electric energy consumption depends on human spontaneous acts against local (REC) has ben developed by using monthly mean temperature and monthly amount of electric energy consumption in the 6 major cities over the 19-205 period. The statistical model is utilized to estimate the past and future REEC, and to assess the economic benefits and damage in energy consumption sector. For an estimation of the future REEC, climate change scenario, which is generated by National Institute of Meteorological Research, is utilized in this study. According to the model, it is estimated that over the standard period (1999~2005), there might be economic benefits of about 31 bilion Won/year in Seoul due to increasing temperature than in the 1980s. The REC is also predicted to be gradually reduced across the Korean peninsula since the 2020s. These results suggest that Korea will gain economic benefits in the REC sector during the 21st century as temperature increases under global warming scenarios.

시나리오의 자동 생성을 통한 GUI 테스트 케이스 생성 방법 (Test Cases Generation Method for GUI Testing with Automatic Scenario Generation)

  • 이정규;국승학;김현수
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2009
  • 최근 GUI 컴포넌트는 소프트웨어의 중요한 성공 요소이다. 따라서 GUI 컴포넌트는 반드시 검증되어야 한다. 그러나 소프트웨어의 GUI 검증을 위한 테스트에는 많은 시간과 비용이 소요된다. 이러한 자원의 소비를 줄이기 위해서는 GUI 테스트의 자동화가 필연적이다. 본 논문에서는 GUI 테스트를 수행하기 위해 고려해야 할 문제를 논하고 기존치 Record & Play-back 기술을 기반으로 한 GUI 테스트 케이스 생성 기법을 보완한다. 이를 위해 스파이 기술을 이용한 이벤트 생성 방법과 이렇게 생성된 이벤트를 그룹화하여 다양하고 효과적인 시나리오 생성 방법을 제안한다. 그리고 이렇게 생성된 시나리오를 바탕으로 GUI 테스트 케이스 생성 방법을 기술한다.

빅데이터 분석을 통한 전기차 파워트레인 도메인 전기전자 아키텍처 연구 (A Study on the Electrical and Electronic Architecture of Electric Vehicle Powertrain Domain through Big Data Analysis)

  • 김도곤;김우주
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.47-73
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    • 2022
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to select the electronic architecture concept of the powertrain domain of the electronic platform to be applied to electric vehicles after 2025. Previously, the automotive electrical and electronic architecture was determined only by trend analysis, but the purpose was to determine the scenario based on the data and select it with clear evaluation indicators. Design/methodology/approach This study identified the function to be applied to the powertrain domain of next-generation electric vehicle, estimated the controller, defined the function feature list, organized the scenario candidates with the controller list and function feature list, and selected the final architecture scenario. Findings According to the research results, the powertrain domain of electric vehicles was selected as the architectural concept to apply the DCU (Domain Control Unit) and VCU (Vehicle Control Unit) integrated architecture to next-generation electric vehicles. Although it is disadvantageous or equivalent in terms of cost, it was found to be excellent in most indicators such as stability, security, and hardware demand.