• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario-based approach

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Estimating Worst Case Flood and Inundation Damages under Climate Change

  • Kim, Sunmin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Nakakita, Eiichi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.189-189
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    • 2016
  • To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

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A large scale simulation of floe-ice fractures and validation against full-scale scenario

  • Lu, Wenjun;Heyn, Hans-Martin;Lubbad, Raed;Loset, Sveinung
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 2018
  • While interacting with a sloping structure, an ice floe may fracture in different patterns. For example, it can be local bending failure or global splitting failure depending on the contact properties, geometry and confinement of the ice floe. Modelling these different fracture patterns as a natural outcome of numerical simulations is rather challenging. This is mainly because the effects of crack propagation, crack branching, multi fracturing modes and eventual fragmentation within a solid material are still questions to be answered by the on-going research in the Computational Mechanic community. In order to simulate the fracturing of ice floes with arbitrary geometries and confinement; and also to simulate the fracturing events at such a large scale yet with sufficient efficiency, we propose a semi-analytical/empirical and semi-numerical approach; but with focus on the global splitting failure mode in this paper. The simulation method is validated against data we collected during the Oden Arctic Technology Research Cruise 2015 (OATRC2015). The data include: 1) camera images based on which we specify the exact geometry of ice floes before and after an impact and fracturing event; 2) IMU data based on which the global dynamic force encountered by the icebreaker is extracted for the impact event. It was found that this method presents reasonably accurate results and realistic fracturing patterns upon given ice floes.

Development of e-CRM System Using LBS of Cellular Phone and Call Back URL SMS (휴대폰의 위치기반서비스와 Call Back URL SMS를 이용한 e-CRM 시스템 개발)

  • Jeon, Jin-Ho;Seo, Phil-Kyo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2010
  • Whenever and wherever, recognizing location of object such as human as well as things, ubiquitous Location-Based Service which provides useful service based on this are rising as an important service. In this paper, we implemented customized real time 1:1 e-CRM system that can communicate with user's mobile phone through using Location-Based Service of mobile phone. Among various scenarios that are applicable to designed system, development and test were conducted based on scenario that provides shopping information and discount information to customers through SMS as they approach to vicinity of large discount store and allow them to download discount coupons through Call Back. The suggested system will be applied to various service event and can be used as a customized real time marketing method according to user's personal activity area.

Design and Development of WBI Contents: A Goal-based Scenarios (GBS) Model Approach (Goal-based Scenarios(GBS) 모형을 적용한 웹기반 교육용 컨텐츠의 설계 및 개발 연구)

  • Cho, Kyoo-Lak;Cho, Young-hoan;Kim, Meekyoung;Sung, Bongsik
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2004
  • In spite of the strong request that Internet, a new IT technique, should be extensively used in classroom settings, WBI is not still wide spread. One possible reason is that most WBIs developed so far are not qualitatively different from the traditional classroom ones and various design models for WBI are unknown. Developing a WBI program according to Goal-based Scenarios (GBS), a constructivistic instructional design model, this study offers a useful case for the design and development of WBI to educators and implementers. The program developed embodied seven important components of the GBS model. The development process also included needs assessment, task analysis, and learner and environment analysis, which are the basic components of the domain of instructional design. The GBS development case in this article will provide concrete guidelines to educational practitioners who have an intention to create a new type of WBI in schools as well as in corporate.

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Estimation of non-point pollution reduction effect of Haean Catchment by application of Nature-based Solutions (자연기반해법 적용에 따른 강원도 양구군 해안면의 비점오염 저감 효과 추정)

  • Lee, Ji-Woo;Park, Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.47-62
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    • 2022
  • The Ministry of Environment has been working to reduce the impact on biodiversity, ecosystems, and social costs caused by soil runoff from highland Agricultural fields by setting up non-point pollution source management districts. To reduce soil loss, runoff path reduction technology has been applied, but it has been less cost effective. In addition, non-point pollution sources cause environmental conflicts in downstream areas, and recently highland Agricultural fields are becoming vulnerable to climate change. The Ministry of Environment is promoting the optimal management plan in earnest to convert arable land into forests and grasslands, but since non-point pollution is not a simple environmental problem, it is necessary to approach it from the aspect of NbS(Nature-Based Solution). In this study, a scenario for applying the nature-based solution was established for three subwatersheds west of Haean-myeon, Yanggu-gun, Gangwon-do. The soil loss distribution was spatialized through GeoWEPP and the amount of soil loss was compared for the non-point pollution reduction effect of mixed forests and grasslands. When cultivated land with a slope of 20% or more and ginseng fields were restored to perennial grasslands and mixed forests, non-point pollution reduction effects of about 32% and 29.000 tons compared to the current land use were shown. Also, it was confirmed that mixed forest rather than perennial grassland is an effective nature-based solution to reduce non-point pollution.

Present Scenario and Future Prospects of Phytase in Aquafeed - Review -

  • Debnath, Dipesh;Sahu, N.P.;Pal, A.K.;Baruah, Kartik;Yengkokpam, Sona;Mukherjee, S.C.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1800-1812
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    • 2005
  • Aquaculture pollution is a major concern among the entrepreneurs, farmers and researchers. Excess discharge of phosphorus and nitrogen into the water bodies is the principal pollutant responsible for this. Plant-based feed ingredients due to its high phytic acid content enhances both nitrogen and phosphorus discharge thereby increasing the pollution level. Dietary phytase treatment is probably the best answer to address this problem. This review explains the nature and properties of phytate, its interactions with other nutrients and the application of phytase in aquafeed to reduce the pollution. This review also covers the different biotechnological aspects for lowering the phytic acid level in the common aquafeed ingredients, as an alternate approach to controlling the pollution level. Some of future research needs have also been highlighted to attract the attention of more researchers to this area.

Extended Kalman Filter Based Relative State Estimation for Satellites in Formation Flying (확장형 칼만 필터를 이용한 인공위성 편대비행 상대 상태 추정)

  • Lee, Young-Gu;Bang, Hyo-Choong
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.962-969
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, an approach is developed for relative state estimation of satellite formation flying. To estimate relative states of two satellites, the Extended Kalman Filter Algorithm is adopted with the relative distance and speed between two satellites and attitude of satellite for measurements. Numerical simulations are conducted under two circumstances. The first one presents both chief and deputy satellites are orbiting a circular reference orbit around a perfectly spherical Earth model with no disturbing acceleration, in which the elementary relative orbital motion is taken into account. In reality, however, the Earth is not a perfect sphere, but rather an oblate spheroid, and both satellites are under the effect of $J_2$ geopotential disturbance, which causes the relative distance between two satellites to be on the gradual increase. A near-Earth orbit decays as a result of atmospheric drag. In order to remove the modeling error, the second scenario incorporates the effect of the $J_2$ geopotential force, and the atmospheric drag, and the eccentricity in satellite orbit are also considered.

A Study on Service Recovery and Customer Behavior from Service Failure (서비스 실패에 따른 서비스 회복과 고객행동에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Bae
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.13 no.1 s.32
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    • pp.152-165
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to prove that the appropriate fit between service failure and recovery strategy can efficiently maximize customer satisfaction and behavioral intention, by using the prepared scenario through comprehensive approach concerning how the expectation level of service recovery has influence on perceived fairness, satisfaction and behavioral intention of service recovery based upon size in case of service failure. This study has been conducted by way of selection of filling-up type questionnaires for customers themselves who have experience in service failure out of customers who can easily visit family and hotel restaurants, that is, domestic restaurants in Seoul area, $June{\sim}August$ 2004, by setting factorial design of 2(control, severeness)$\times$3(distributive fairness, procedural fairness, mutual relational fairness)$\times$2(customer satisfaction, customer behavior). The survey was performed on the customers who visited common restaurants, family restaurants, hotel restaurants, etc. mainly in Seoul, and total 600 sheets of questionnaires were distributed and 496 sheets of them were returned(82.67% of return ratio). Research findings are as follows; First, perceived recovery justice has an effect on customer satisfaction and behavioral intention. Second, customer satisfaction and restaurant satisfaction have positive influence on behavioral intention. The results will be helpful for them to develop a further service failure and recovery framework. For service marketing managers, the results will suggest specific guidelines for establishing service recovery strategies.

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Correlation of similar call-signs aircraft and human error in ATC (항공기 유사호출부호와 항공교통관제 인적오류 상관관계 연구)

  • Moon, Woo-Choon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2010
  • As the ultimate goal of the Aeronautical communication is delivery of information, it is essential to communicate via accurate use of language; there are possibilities of errors occurring as the exchange of information between pilot and air traffic controller is conducted through radio communication. Especially, there are frequently reported errors in radio communication in the event that two or more aircrafts using similar call-signs are operated in one sector. In this paper, a list of errors, which can possibly caused by air traffic controllers when controlling airplanes using similar call-signs, was derived through preceding researches and theories related to similar call-signs and human errors. Based on this list, an experiment was conducted on 52 air traffic controllers working at "J" international airport. For this experiment, ATC2K which is a simulated approach control radar developed in Korea, was used; and a regression formula was derived by analyzing the quantity of frequency change in error occurrence when controlling two or more airplanes using similar call-signs base on a premeditated scenario.The data presented in this research has useful findings and concepts for understanding the errors that can possibly occur while controlling airplanes using similar call-signs.

Mitigation of seismic drift response of braced frames using short yielding-core BRBs

  • Pandikkadavath, Muhamed Safeer;Sahoo, Dipti Ranjan
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.285-302
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    • 2017
  • Buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs) are commonly used as the lateral force-resisting systems in building structures in the seismic regions. The nearly-symmetric hysteretic response and the delayed brace core fracture of buckling-restrained braces (BRBs) under the axial cyclic loading provide the adequate lateral force and deformation capacity to BRBFs under the earthquake excitation. However, the smaller axial stiffness of BRBs result in the undesirable higher residual drift response of BRBFs in the post-earthquake scenario. Two alternative approaches are investigated in this study to improve the elastic axial stiffness of BRBs, namely, (i) by shortening the yielding cores of BRBs; and (ii) by reducing the BRB assemblies and adding the elastic brace segments in series. In order to obtain the limiting yielding core lengths of BRBs, a modified approach based on Coffin-Manson relationship and the higher mode compression buckling criteria has been proposed in this study. Both non-linear static and dynamic analyses are carried out to analytically evaluate the seismic response of BRBFs fitted with short-core BRBs of two medium-rise building frames. Analysis results showed that the proposed brace systems are effective in reducing the inter-story and residual drift response of braced frames without any significant change in the story shear and the displacement ductility demands.