• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

Climate change lead to environmental pollution caused by the radical economic growth and development of industry. The amount of damage from abnormal climate is increasing rapidly for this reason in Korea. In particular, the cities is a lot of carbon emission quantity from the radical growth. Thus the government present "low carbon green growth" for eco-friendly city planning. As one of the important factors effecting climate change, active researches on land use change is performed. In this study, we knew land use change of each scenarios using land use equilibrium model which is kind of predictive model of land use in Japan. First, we selected study area to Jeju lsland. For this study, indicators for input data were selected and spatial data for input data were established using GIS program. Second, we established future scenarios based in 2040s. There are 2 future scenarios: dispersion scenario, compact scenario. Third, we compared with residential area of current and residential area for future scenarios. Results showed that residential area of the difference between current and dispersion scenario were 1,230 ha and residential area of the difference between current and compact scenario were 1,515 ha. Finally, for comparing carbon dioxide absorption volume between dispersion scenarios and compact scenarios, we calculated carbon dioxide absorption volume according to residential area decreased of each future scenarios. Results showed that carbon dioxide absorption volume in dispersion scenario was 477,878 ton and carbon dioxide absorption volume in compact scenario was 588,606 ton. Therefore, the study showed that land use equilibrium model is expected to put to use for future enhancement in creating data for climate change stabilization. And it is also expected to be utilized for city planning research in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.418-428
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to predict the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and to evaluate land-based pollutant loads in the future under Total Water Pollution Load Management System using CLUE-S model. For these ends, sensitive parameters of conversion elasticities in CLUE-S model were calibrated and these calibrated parameters of conversion elasticities, level II land cover map of year 2009, and 7 driving factors of land use changes were used in predicting future land uses in 2002 with two scenarios(Scenario 1: non area restriction, Scenario 2: area restriction). This projected land use map of 2020 was used to estimate land-based pollutant loads. It was expected that urban areas will increase in 2020 from both scenarios 1 and 2. In Scenario 1, urban areas are expected to increase within greenbelt areas and deforest would be expected. Under Scenario 2, these phenomena were not expected. Also the results of estimation of BOD and TP pollutant loads, the BOD difference between scenarios 1 and 2 was 719 kg/day in urban areas and TP difference was 17.60 kg/day in urban areas. As shown in this study, it was found that the CLUE-S model can be useful in future pollutant load estimations because of its capability of projecting future land uses considering various socio-economic driving factors and area-restriction factors, compared with conventionally used land use prediction model.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.582-589
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• 2010

As a part of the back-end fuel cycle, transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from nuclear power plants (NPPs) to a fuel storage facility is very important in establishing a nuclear fuel cycle. In Korea, the accumulated amount of SNF in the NPP pools is troublesome since the temporary storage facilities at these NPP pools are expected to be full of SNF within ten years. Therefore, Korea cannot help but plan for the construction of an interim storage facility to solve this problem in the near future. Especially, a decision on several factors, such as where the interim storage facility should be located, how many casks a transport ship can carry at a time and how many casks are initially required, affect the configuration of the transportation system. In order to analyze the various possible candidate scenarios, we assumed four cases for the interim storage facility location, three cases for the load capacity that a transport ship can carry and two cases for the total amount of casks used for transportation. First, this study considered the currently accumulated amount of SNF in Korea, and the amount of SNF generated from NPPs until all NPPs are shut down. Then, how much SNF per year must be transported from the NPPs to an interim storage facility was calculated during an assumed transportation period. Second, 24 candidate transportation scenarios were constructed by a combination of the decision factors. To construct viable yearly transportation schedules for the selected 24 scenarios, we created a spreadsheet program named TranScenario, which was developed by using MS EXCEL. TranScenario can help schedulers input shipping routes and allocate transportation casks. Also, TranScenario provides information on the cask distribution in the NPPs and in the interim storage facility automatically, by displaying it in real time according to the shipping routes, cask types and cask numbers that the user generates. Once a yearly transportation schedule is established, TranScenario provides some statistical information, such as the voyage time, the availability of the interim storage facility, the number of transported casks sent from the NPPs, and the number of transported casks received at the interim storage facility. By using this information, users can verify and validate a yearly transportation schedule. In this way, the 24 candidate scenarios could be constructed easily. Finally, these 24 scenarios were compared in terms of their operation cost.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.18 no.8
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• pp.2346-2365
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• 2024

This research identifies specific user experience factors that have positive impact on user's behavior intention to use so that a new technology called stretchable display(SD) can be accepted and spread in the market. To show how these factors can be applied to SD home appliances, a few concrete designs have been suggested. In the first stage of the research, the initial concept of innovative product design with stretchable display was derived by developing a scenario that solves the expected experience by home product users through the attributes of the SD technology. In the second stage, a scenario of the product to which a stretchable display was applied was suggested to investigate the expected experience factors that influence the behavior intention to use. As a result of the analysis, users showed a positive intention to use for the factors of Functionality of Space and Life Support, Presentation of Preferences, and Customization of Emotions, provided by the product with SD technology applied. In the next stage, based on the verified user experience factors, multifunctional kitchen appliances design, smart furniture design with flexible surfaces, and smart interior wall tile design have been derived. After all, the differentiated transformable interface designs shown through this process have been suggested as three-dimensional soft-physical button design and attachable design for multi-curved soft furniture. This study is significant as it emphasizes a user-centered design process over a technology-centered approach, enhancing market acceptability and focusing on design features aligned with the user's expected experience.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.544-553
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• 2017

There is an overall guideline of the installation of air quality monitoring stations in Korea, but specified steps for the selection of monitoring sites for hazardous air pollutants(HAPs) are not provided. In this study, we proposed a systematic method for the selection of monitoring sites for HAPs using geographic information system (GIS). As a case study, the Seoul metropolitan area (Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province) was chosen, and 15 factors including population, vehicle registration, and emission data were compiled for each grid cell ($7km{\times}7km$). The number of factors above the top 30% of individual data for each grid cell was used to select priority monitoring sites for HAPs. In addition, several background sites were added for data comparison and source identification. Three scenarios were suggested: Scenario 1 with 7 sites, Scenario 2 with 17 sites, and Scenario 3 with 30 sites. This proposal is not the final result for an intensive monitoring program, but it is an example of method development for selecting appropriate sampling sites. These results can be applied not only to HAPs monitoring in megacities but also to the national HAPs monitoring network.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.265-273
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• 2020

We aimed to predict the Italian ryegrass (IRG) productivity change of introduced and domestic varieties based on climate factors and identify suitable areas for IRG cultivation using the RCP 8.5 scenario. The minimum mean air temperature in January showed the highest correlation with productivity. The ratio of possible and low productivity areas was high in Gangwondo, and the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the central and southern regions in the past 30 years. The change in the IRG cultivation area was found to be 26.9% in the best suitable area between 1981-2010 but increased significantly to 88.9% between 2090s. In the IRG suitability comparison classes between domestic and introduced cultivars, the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the domestic varieties during the past 30 years. However, there is almost no difference between the IRG domestic and introduced varieties in the IRG suitability classes after the 2050s. These results can predict changes in the IRG suitability classes between domestic and introduced cultivars according to the climate change scenario, but there are limitations in accurately predicting the productivity of IRG because the results may vary depending on other environmental factors.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.233-240
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• 2021

The stochastic method is applied to simulate strong ground motions at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, creating an earthquake scenario based on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake. Input parameters are established according to what has been revealed so far for the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake, while the ratio of differences in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions is assumed to be an adjustment factor. The calculations confirm the applicability and reproducibility of strong ground motion simulations based on the relatively small bias in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions. Based on this result, strong ground motions by a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake with moment magnitude 6.5 are simulated, assuming that the ratios of its fault length to width are 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1. The results are similar to those of the empirical Green's function method. Although actual site response factors of seismic stations should be supplemented later, the simulated strong ground motions can be used as input data for developing ground motion prediction equations and input data for calculating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.38-43
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• 2022

As the use of unmanned aerial vehicles increases, in order to expand the operability of the unmanned aerial vehicle, it is essential to develop an unmanned aerial vehicle traffic management system, and to establish the system, it is necessary to analyze the integrated navigation performance of the unmanned aerial vehicle to be operated. Integrated navigation performance is affected by various factors such as the type of unmanned aerial vehicle, flight environment, and guidance law algorithm. In addition, since a large amount of flight data is required to obtain high-reliability analysis results, efficient and consistent flight scenarios are required. In this paper, a flight scenario that satisfies the requirements for integrated navigation performance analysis of rotary and fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles was designed and verified through flight experiments.

• Journal of Engineering Education Research
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.23-37
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• 2022

This study evaluated the engineering students' ethical sensitivity to an AI emotion recognition robot scenario and explored its characteristics. For data collection, 54 students (27 majoring in Convergence Electronic Engineering and 27 majoring in Computer Software) were asked to list five factors regarding the AI robot scenario. For the analysis of ethical sensitivity, it was checked whether the students acknowledged the AI ethical principles in the AI robot scenario, such as safety, controllability, fairness, accountability, and transparency. We also categorized students' levels as either informed or naive based on whether or not they infer specific situations and diverse outcomes and feel a responsibility to take action as engineers. As a result, 40.0% of students' responses contained the AI ethical principles. These include safety 57.1%, controllability 10.7%, fairness 20.5%, accountability 11.6%, and transparency 0.0%. More students demonstrated ethical sensitivity at a naive level (76.8%) rather than at the informed level (23.2%). This study has implications for presenting an ethical sensitivity evaluation tool that can be utilized professionally in educational fields and applying it to engineering students to illustrate specific cases with varying levels of ethical sensitivity.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2010

The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.