• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario factors

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Assessment of REDD+ Suitable Area for Sustainable Forest Management in Paraguay

  • Park, Jeongmook;Lee, Yongkyu;Lim, Byeongmin;Lee, Jungsoo
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.187-198
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    • 2020
  • This study extracted deforestation area and degraded forestland area, which are potential REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) project candidate areas in Paraguay using Land Cover Map (LCM) and Tree Cover Map (TCM). The REDD+ project objectives scenarios were set three stages: 'afforestation and economic efficiency scenario', 'local capacity reinforcement scenario', and 'Infrastructure-oriented scenario'. And then, we evaluated the project unit suitable area of the REDD+ project. All scenarios selected the evaluation factors for each scenario in addition to the area ratio factors for deforestation area and degraded forestland area and weighted values were extracted by assigning category scores. As a result of the three scenarios comparison analysis, Concepcion state score was the highest. Within Concepcion state, the Belon district had the highest score, making it appropriate as a project unit REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, while the San Carlos district had the lowest score. This study can be used as basic data for selecting REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, and it is expected to contribute sufficiently to REDD+ project if additional data or information of social, cultural and economic sectors are secured.

A Study on Fire Scenario Analysis Based on Fire Statistics for Building Fire Risk Analysis (건축물 화재위험평가를 위한 화재통계 기반 화재시나리오 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jin, Seung-Hyeon;Kim, Hye-Won;Koo, In-Hyuk;Kwon, Yeong-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.04a
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    • pp.81-82
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to establish a methodology for rational fire risk assessment for building evacuation safety in case of fire, and specifically, to propose a fire risk assessment technique using fire scenarios considering various uncertain factors in case of fire. In order to analyze the extent to which the assumed conditions can occur, that is, the probability of each accident caused by fire, the safety rate is analyzed according to the presence or absence of each factor by using fire statistics. Factors related to the fire protection performance and evacuation ability of buildings are defined as disaster factors. In this study, disaster factors were classified into the following three categories.

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Study on Cost of Energy(COE) Reduction Scenario of Korean Offshore Wind Power (해상풍력발전의 에너지단가(COE)절감 시나리오 연구)

  • Sung, Jin Ki;Lee, Jong Hoon;Kang, Kung Suk;Lee, Tae Jin
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.11
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    • pp.1520-1527
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to derive COE reduction targets of offshore wind power in Korea. In addition, innovation factors for achieving the COE reduction targets were derived. Also the COE reduction targets of offshore wind power was to improve that national policy, technology, industry and improving regulations would like to help. The results of this study has been created based on the various assumptions, scenarios and experts' discussions. Currently, offshore wind power generation price is 229.72won/kWh in 2012. According to the study, COE of offshore wind power has been proposed 88.8won/kWh at third scenario by 2030. This result has shown competitiveness with fossil fuel power generation.

A Study on Prediction of Suspension Time of Unmanned Light Rail according to Safety Personal Deployment (안전요원 배치 여부에 따른 무인운전 경전철의 운행중단 시간예측 연구)

  • Sang Log Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2023
  • The number of unmanned light rail train operators is continuously increasing in Korea. In a failure event during an operation due to the nature of the unmanned operation, recovery is performed based on the remote control. However, if remote recovery is not feasible, safety personnel arrive at the train to resume the train operation. There are regulations on safety personnel and the suspension time of the train operation. However, there is currently no rule for safety personnel deployment. Currently, railway operating organizations operate in three scenarios: safety personnel on board trains, stationed at stations, and deployed at major stations. Four major factors influence the downtime for each emergency response scenario. However, these four influencing factors vary too much to predict results with simple calculations. In this study, four influencing factors were considered as random variables with high uncertainty. In addition, the Monte Carlo method was applied to each scenario for the safety personnel deployment to predict train service downtime. This study found a 17% difference in train service suspension by safety personnel deployment scenario. The results of this study can be used in setting service goals, such as standards for future safety personnel placement and frequency of service interruptions.

Human and organizational factors for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment: Identification and characterization for the Korean case

  • Arigi, Awwal Mohammed;Kim, Gangmin;Park, Jooyoung;Kim, Jonghyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.104-115
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    • 2019
  • Since the Fukushima Daiichi accident, there has been an emphasis on the risk resulting from multi-unit accidents. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is one of the important issues in multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA). Hence, there is a need to properly identify all the human and organizational factors relevant to a multi-unit incident scenario in a nuclear power plant (NPP). This study identifies and categorizes the human and organizational factors relevant to a multi-unit incident scenario of NPPs based on a review of relevant literature. These factors are then analyzed to ascertain all possible unit-to-unit interactions that need to be considered in the multi-unit HRA and the pattern of interactions. The human and organizational factors are classified into five categories: organization, work device, task, performance shaping factors, and environmental factors. The identification and classification of these factors will significantly contribute to the development of adequate strategies and guidelines for managing multi-unit accidents. This study is a necessary initial step in developing an effective HRA method for multiple NPP units in a site.

Evaluation of Face Recognition System based on Scenarios (얼굴인식 시스템의 시나리오 기반 평가 방법론)

  • Maeng, Doo-Lyel;Hong, Byung-Woo;Kim, Sung-Jo
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.487-495
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    • 2010
  • It has been required to develop an accurate and reliable evaluation method for the performance of biometric systems as their use is getting popular. Among a number of biometric systems, face recognition is one of the most widely used techniques and this leads to develop a stable evaluation method for face recognition systems in order to standardize the performance of face recognition systems. However, it is considered as a difficult task to evaluation such systems due to a large number of factors that affect their performance. Thus, it may be infeasible to take into account all the environmental factors that are related to the performance of face recognition systems and this naturally suggests an evaluation method for the overall performance based on scenarios. In this paper, we have analyzed environmental factors that are related to the performance of general face recognition systems and proposed their evaluation method taking into account those factors. We have proposed an evaluation method based on scenario that considers the combination of individual environment factors instead of evaluating the performance of face recognition systems regarding each factor. Indeed, we have presented examples on the evaluation of face recognition systems based on scenario that takes into account overall environmental factors.

An Extension of MSDL for Obtaining Weapon Effectiveness Data in a Military Simulation (국방 시뮬레이션에서 무기효과 데이터 획득을 위한 MSDL의 확장)

  • Lee, Sangjin;Oh, Hyun-Shik;Kim, Dohyung;Rhie, Ye Lim;Lee, Sunju
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • Many factors such as wind direction, wind strength, temperature, and obstacles affect a munition's trajectory. Since these factors eventually determines the probability of hit and the hitting point of a target, these factors should be considered to obtain reliable weapon effectiveness data. In this study, we propose the extension of the MSDL(Military Scenario Definition Language) to reflect these factors to improve the reliability of weapon effectiveness data. Based on the existing MSDL, which has been used to set the initial condition of a military simulation scenarios, the newly identified subelements are added in ScenarioID, Environment, Organizations, and Installations as a scenario schema. Also, DamageAssessment and DesignOfExperiments element are added to make weapon effectiveness data easily. The extended MSDL enables to automatically generate the simulation scenarios that reflect various factors which affect the probability of hit or kill. This extended MSDL is applied to an integrated simulation software of weapon systems, named AddSIM version 4.0 for generation of weapon effectiveness data.

A Study on the Influencing Factors of Continuous Usage Intention for a Scenario based FAQ Service regarding on Private Information Protection (개인정보보호에 관한 시나리오 기반 질의응답서비스 품질이 이용의도에 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Sang-Ug;Lee, Dae-Chul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.223-236
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    • 2014
  • The paper studies the influencing factors of continuous usage intention for a scenario based cognitive FAQ service regrading on private information protection. The research result finds that three major factors are significantly positive to the continuous usage intention for the service. First, search easiness is an essential factor and it can be improved using sophisticate categorization. Second, Scenario based FAQ service is effective on understanding and solving questioner's situation. Related information is helpful for problem solving. The research shows that the new approach to private information protection area can lead to a more acceptable and reasonable problem solving tool.

Foresight study on the Overseas Export of Nuclear Power Plants (시나리오 기반 미래원전산업의 환경변화 전망 및 수출전략 도출)

  • Hwang, Byung Yong;Choi, Han Lim;Lee, Yong Suk
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2012
  • This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

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