• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

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A Study on the Sensitivity Analysis of Ship Mooring Evaluation Factors According to Sea Level Rise in Mokpo Port (목포항 해수면 상승에 따른 선박 계류평가요소의 민감도 분석 연구)

  • Seungyeon Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.445-455
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    • 2023
  • Sea level rise due to global warming is accelerating. According to the IPCC survey, the expected sea level rise in 2100 was analyzed to be 47cm in the low-carbon scenario (SSP 1-2.6) and 82cm in the high-carbon scenario (SSP 5-8.5). Sea level rise can cause serious damage to port infrastructure and reduce the safety of ships docked inside ports. In this study, Mokpo Port, which frequently suffers from flooding during high tide, was selected and the sensitivity of mooring evaluation factors was analyzed for actual berthing ships according to sea level rise scenarios. From the analysis, we found that the tension of mooring line, the load of bollard, vertical angle of mooring line, and ship's motion of 6-DOF, which are evaluation factors, generally increased when the sea level increased. The most sensitive evaluation factor was sway motion of 6-DOF. Also, we analyzed that the value of mooring evaluation factors decreased when the crown height was raised. This was beneficial in improving ship and pier safety. The results of this study can be used as basic data to secure measures to improve port and ship safety according to sea level rise in Mokpo Port.

Risk Assessment of Drought for Regional Upland Soil According to RCP8.5 Scenario Using Soil Moisture Evaluation Model (AFKE 0.5)

  • Seo, Myung-Chul;Cho, Hyeon-Suk;Seong, Ki-Yeong;Kim, Min-Tae;Park, Tae-Seon;Kang, Hang-Won;Shin, Kook-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.434-444
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    • 2013
  • In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

Health Risk Assessment for Artificial Turf Playgrounds in School Athletic Facilities: Multi-route Exposure Estimation for Use Patterns

  • Kim, Ho-Hyun;Lim, Young-Wook;Kim, Sun-Duk;Yeo, In-Young;Shin, Dong-Chun;Yang, Ji-Yeon
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.206-221
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    • 2012
  • Hazardous chemicals can be released from artificial turf used in some school playgrounds. To distinguish between Health risk assessment (HRA) exposure scenarios for this study, the ratio of elementary, middle and high schools was considered before final selection. Considering exposure pathways (inhalational, oral and dermal), media and materials were examined, targeting hazardous chemicals released from artificial turf playground-related products. Upon evaluation, the quantity of infill chips was shown to exceed the domestic product content standard (90 mg/kg) at eight (16%) out of 50 schools. PAHs were shown to exceed standards (10 mg/kg) at two (4%) out of the 50 schools. The excess cancer risk (ECR) of carcinogens was shown to be $1{\times}10^{-6}$ in most users for the worst exposure scenario. In children with pica, who represented the most extreme exposure group, the ECR was expected to be as high as $1{\times}10^{-4}$, showing the low risk level of carcinogens. The hazard index (HI) for individual chemicals was shown to be low, at around 0.1 or less, except for children with pica, according to the mean exposure scenario of artificial turf playground exposure. However, the HI was shown to exceed 1.0 in children with pica. Therefore, no direct health risk was found in using artificial turf playgrounds and urethane flooring tracks for the mean exposure scenario, except in children with pica.

Design and Implementation of CTI System for Hearing-Impaired People in Mobile Environment (모바일 환경에서 청각장애인을 위한 CTI시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Yang, Seung-Su;Park, Seok-Cheon
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, analyze the technical elements of the CTI system to design the proposed system, understand the requirements of CTI IP based system. in the Hearing-Impaired designed a CTI system of mobile phone-based services available to the CTI call center system based on this. Furthermore, we implemented voiceXML scenario data analysis modules using the JAVA language to implement the system was designed, the server provides. And an implementation of the CTI system of mobile phone base for the Hearing-Impaired by integrating the modules that have been implemented. Finally, create a scenario that uses the CTI system for mobile base to test and evaluation, based on the test scenario each functional, we conducted repeated tests. It was possible to confirm the results of time for the acquisition of the test result information has been reduced about 20 seconds on average than the audio system based on conventional.

Job Assignment Simulation of Ship Hull Production Design in Consideration of Mid-Term Schedule (중일정계획을 고려한 선체 생산설계 작업할당 시뮬레이션)

  • Son, Myeong-Jo;Kim, Tae-Wan
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.334-342
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we analyze the procedure of the design manager for the enhancement of the hull production design process by use of the simulation method. Normally, design manager assigns design jobs according to various methods and estimates the corresponding results. When the construction drawing which is the output of the detail design where a design is dealt by zones, the design manager identifies blocks and analyzes their work difficulties, and assigns jobs to design engineers who are different in capabilities. These processes including the design engineer who can be modeled with man-hours evaluation model are represented in detail as a simulation model. As the high-level modeling for the discrete-event system, we use Event Graph model. And we implemented the simulation using Simkit which is open simulation engine for the discrete-event system. We made the simulation scenario to be written by a user in the scenario generator which is separated from the simulation model, and made the simulation result to be visualized in the form of Gantt chart in a Web. In the scenario of the irregular issuance for various construction drawings which contain different numbers of blocks, we performed the Monte-Carlo simulation according to various assignment methods to find the assignment result that satisfies the mid-term schedule.

Development and application of Scenario-based Admission Management VR contents for nursing students

  • Kim, Yu-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, I developed a scenario-based admission management virtual reality (SAM VR) content for practical training for nursing students and verified the effectiveness. The SAM VR contents used in the study was developed by the researcher using Gear VR and smartphone according to the standard practical procedure suggested by the Korea Acreditation Board of Nursing Education and Evaluation. In the 30 experimental groups who received practical training using SAM VR contents, learning flow, learning confidence, and learning satisfaction increased statistically significantly after the practical training (p<.001). In the control group, who received practical training in the traditional way, learning confidence increased after the practical training (p<.005), but there was no change in learning flow and learning satisfaction (p>.005). It was verified that the SAM VR contents are effective practical education contents for nursing students' learning flow, learning confidence and learning satisfaction.

A study of future scenario forecasting of autonomous vehicle industry (자율주행 자동차 산업의 미래 시나리오 예측 연구)

  • Joo, Baegsu;Kim, Jieun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, the autonomous vehicle industry has changed drastically. So the needs and interests in predicting future technologies and market prospects of the autonomous vehicle field have been very increased. However, considering the characteristics of the automotive industry, which has various factors, complex correlation of them and big influence on each other, the study of systematic future forecasting methodologies are urgent and necessary which are applicable to autonomous vehicle industry. In this research, the two methods such as "Field Anomaly Relaxation" and "Multiple Perspective Concept" were analyzed and chosen, which are suitable to automotive industry. By the combination of two methods this research developed and examined the three future scenarios related to core technologies and industry trends. And these scenarios feasibility was verified by experts and evaluation checklist. This research has a contribution that this future scenario forecasting approach can be applied to the industries which have various volatility like the autonomous vehicle industry.

Vibration Serviceability Evaluation of a Single Span Steel-Concrete Composite Foot Bridge under Dynamic Pedestrian Loadings Considering Moving Mass Effect (이동 질량 효과를 고려한 단경간 강합성 보행교의 보행 하중 진동 사용성 평가)

  • Wonsuk Park
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we present the analysis results on the vibration serviceability of a pedestrian bridge considering the effect of pedestrian moving mass inertia. Using dynamic finite element analysis, we considered different walking scenarios, including pedestrian density, walking speed, random walking, and synchronized walking, to analyze the acceleration response of a 40m long single-span bridge with a steel composite box cross section. We showed that the equivalent fixed mass analysis method did not significantly differ from the moving mass analysis in the random walk scenario and a wider frequency excitation band may be useful to consider when evaluating vibration serviceability in a random walk scenario.

Student Responses to Smart Device-Based Test on Competency Evaluation in Dental Education

  • Kim, Jooah;Kim, Soo-Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Dental Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study was aimed to investigate the possibility of utilizing smart device-based test (SBT) for competency evaluation in dental education and to analyze the student responses on overall competency evaluation using SBT method, in comparison to ubiquitous-based test (UBT). Materials and Methods: Questionnaire surveys have been conducted at Yonsei University College of Dentistry from 2015 to 2018 to obtain students' feedback on the application of SBT to competency evaluation. In addition, in order to supplement the competency evaluation procedure, considerations were explored by comparing the expected and actual difficulty of each item when preparing items for competency evaluation with SBT. Result: According to the survey results, student responses between the initial two years (2015 and 2016) differed from those in next two years (2017 and 2018). Students in 2017 and 2018 had more positive responses on competency evaluation with SBT. To determine the test validity, criterion-referenced evaluation was adopted to compare the data in 2017 and 2018 and slight differences in test difficulty in 2018 between the expected and actual difficulty of items were found. Conclusion: The results indicated that SBT was more appropriate for competency evaluation than UBT, based on four-year period of competency evaluation. The SBT was not affected by either the file size or the number of test-takers. Interestingly, students were not sensitive to test version of competency evaluation (paper-based test and SBT). This study suggests that the quality of the test items should be measured by continuous monitoring of the expected and actual difficulty of items for determining test validity. More detailed results and discussions of the findings are given for the development of test procedure and further potential research directions in dental education.

Evaluation of stream flow and water quality behavior by weir operation in Nakdong river basin using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 낙동강유역의 보 개방에 따른 하천유량 및 수질 거동 분석)

  • Lee, Ji Wan;Jung, Chung Gil;Woo, So Young;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.349-360
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the stream flow and water quality (SS, T-N, and T-P) behavior of Nakdong river basin ($23,609.3km^2$) by simulating the dam and weir operation scenarios using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The operation senarios are the simultaneous release for all dam and weirs (scenario 1), simultaneous release for all weirs (scenario 2), and sequential release for the weirs with one month interval from upstream weirs (scenario 3). Before evaluation, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2005-2015) daily multi-purpose dam inflow at 5 locations (ADD, IHD, HCD, MKD, and MYD), multi-function weir inflow at 7 locations (SHW, GMW, CGW, GJW, DSW, HCW, and HAW), and monthly water quality monitoring data at 6 locations (AD-4, SJ-2, EG, HC, MK-4, and MG). For the two dam inflow and dam storage, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.56~0.79, and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.68~0.90. For water quality, the $R^2$ of SS, T-N, and T-P was 0.64~0.79, 0.51~0.74, and 0.53~0.72 respectively. For the three scenarios of dam and weir release combination suggested by the ministry of environment, the scenario 1 and 3 operations were improved the stream water quality (for T-N and T-P) within the 3 months since the time of release, but it showed the negative effect for 3 months after compared to scenario 2.