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A Study on the Predictability of Hospital's Future Cash Flow Information (병원의 미래 현금흐름 정보예측)

  • Moon, Young-Jeon;Yang, Dong-Hyun
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2006
  • The Objective of this study was to design the model which predict the future cash flow of hospitals and on the basis of designed model to support sound hospital management by the prediction of future cash flow. The five cash flow measurement variables discussed in financial accrual part were used as variables and these variables were defined as NI, NIDPR, CFO, CFAI, CC. To measure the cash flow B/S related variables, P/L related variables and financial ratio related variables were utilized in this study. To measure cash flow models were designed and to estimate the prediction ability of five cash flow models, the martingale model and the market model were utilized. To estimate relative prediction outcome of cash flow prediction model and simple market model, MAE and MER were used to compare and analyze relative prediction ability of the cash flow model and the market model and to prove superiority of the model of the cash flow prediction model, 32 Regional Public Hospital's cross-section data and 4 year time series data were combined and pooled cross-sectional time series regression model was used for GLS-analysis. To analyze this data, Firstly, each cash flow prediction model, martingale model and market model were made and MAE and MER were estimated. Secondly difference-test was conducted to find the difference between MAE and MER of cash flow prediction model. Thirdly after ranking by size the prediction of cash flow model, martingale model and market model, Friedman-test was evaluated to find prediction ability. The results of this study were as follows: when t-test was conducted to find prediction ability among each model, the error of prediction of cash flow model was smaller than that of martingale and market model, and the difference of prediction error cash flow was significant, so cash flow model was analyzed as excellent compare with other models. This research results can be considered conductive in that present the suitable prediction model of future cash flow to the hospital. This research can provide valuable information in policy-making of hospital's policy decision. This research provide effects as follows; (1) the research is useful to estimate the benefit of hospital, solvency and capital supply ability for substitution of fixed equipment. (2) the research is useful to estimate hospital's liqudity, solvency and financial ability. (3) the research is useful to estimate evaluation ability in hospital management. Furthermore, the research should be continued by sampling all hospitals and constructed advanced cash flow model in dimension, established type and continued by studying unified model which is related each cash flow model.

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Some Results from a Sample Survey on the Use of Moxibustion Therapeutics in Korea (국내 뜸요법 사용실태에 관한 표본조사 결과)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong;Hong, Sung-Joon;Park, So-Hyung;Jung, Chan-Yung;Yoon, Eun-Hye;Lee, Seung-Deok
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2010
  • Objectives : Based on a national sample survey, we present an analysis of the current situation in the use of moxibustion therapeutics by qualified medical practitioners in Korea. Methods : The survey population of 11,737 hospitals is stratified by administrative regions, and 331 of them are randomly selected from the list of hospitals. The same number of Korean medical doctors is interviewed under the computer-assisted telephone interviewing(CATI) system. The bound on the error of estimation is ${\pm}\;5.0%$ point. Results : Of the 331 Korean medical doctors surveyed, 69% have used moxibustion therapy for remedial treatment. About half of those doctors have employed the therapy for their patients over 30%. The average number of acupuncture points per treatment using the therapy mostly ranges 1 between 5. The percent of practitioners, who have the number of average minutes less than 20 in treatment, is 74%. The number of practitioners who primarily use modified moxibustion is 4 times as many as that of those using traditional moxibustion. Conclusions : Considering the survey results, if the laser heater, alternative to conventional moxibustion, which not only gives high thermal effect but also reduces both the users inconvenience and side effects, are developed, it may benefit more patients as well as Korean medical doctors.

Design of a SQUID Sensor Array Measuring the Tangential Field Components in Magnetocardiogram (심자도용 접선성분자장 측정방식 스퀴드 센서열 설계)

  • Kim K.;Lee Y. H;Kwon H;Kim J. M;Kim I. S;Park Y. K;Lee K. W
    • Progress in Superconductivity
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2004
  • We consider design factors for a SQUID sensor array to construct a 52-channel magnetocardiogram (MCG) system that can be used to measure tangential components of the cardiac magnetic fields. Nowadays, full-size multichannel MCG systems, which cover the whole signal area of a heart, are developed to improve the clinical analysis with high accuracy and to provide patients with comfort in the course of measurement. To design the full-size MCG system, we have to make a compromise between cost and performance. The cost is involved with the number of sensors, the number of the electronics, the size of a cooling dewar, the consumption of refrigerants for maintenance, and etc. The performance is the capability of covering the whole heart volume at once and of localizing current sources with a small error. In this study, we design the cost-effective arrangement of sensors for MCG by considering an adequate sensor interval and the confidence region of a tolerable localization error, which covers the heart. In order to fit the detector array on the cylindrical dewar economically, we removed the detectors that were located at the corners of the array square. Through simulations using the confidence region method, we verified that our design of the detector array was good enough to obtain whole information from the heart at a time. A result of the simulation also suggested that tangential-component MCG measurement could localize deeper current dipoles than normal-component MCG measurement with the same confidence volume; therefore, we conclude that measurement of the tangential component is more suitable to an MCG system than measurement of the normal component.

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Investigation of the Super-resolution Algorithm for the Prediction of Periodontal Disease in Dental X-ray Radiography (치주질환 예측을 위한 치과 X-선 영상에서의 초해상화 알고리즘 적용 가능성 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Na
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.153-158
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    • 2021
  • X-ray image analysis is a very important field to improve the early diagnosis rate and prediction accuracy of periodontal disease. Research on the development and application of artificial intelligence-based algorithms to improve the quality of such dental X-ray images is being widely conducted worldwide. Thus, the aim of this study was to design a super-resolution algorithm for predicting periodontal disease and to evaluate its applicability in dental X-ray images. The super-resolution algorithm was constructed based on the convolution layer and ReLU, and an image obtained by up-sampling a low-resolution image by 2 times was used as an input data. Also, 1,500 dental X-ray data used for deep learning training were used. Quantitative evaluation of images used root mean square error and structural similarity, which are factors that can measure similarity through comparison of two images. In addition, the recently developed no-reference based natural image quality evaluator and blind/referenceless image spatial quality evaluator were additionally analyzed. According to the results, we confirmed that the average similarity and no-reference-based evaluation values were improved by 1.86 and 2.14 times, respectively, compared to the existing bicubic-based upsampling method when the proposed method was used. In conclusion, the super-resolution algorithm for predicting periodontal disease proved useful in dental X-ray images, and it is expected to be highly applicable in various fields in the future.

Estimation of Ultrasonic Attenuation Coefficients in the Frequency Domain using Compressed Sensing (압축 센싱을 이용한 주파수 영역의 초음파 감쇠 지수 예측)

  • Shim, Jaeyoon;Kim, Hyungsuk
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.167-173
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    • 2016
  • Compressed Sensing(CS) is the theory that can recover signals which are sampled below the Nyquist sampling rate to original analog signals. In this paper, we propose the estimation algorithm of ultrasonic attenuation coefficients in the frequency domain using CS. While most estimation algorithms transform the time-domain signals into the frequency-domain using the Fourier transform, the proposed method directly utilize the spectral information in the recovery process by the basis matrix without the completely recovered signals in the time domain. We apply three transform bases for sparsifying and estimate the attenuation coefficients using the Centroid Downshift method with Dual-reference diffraction compensation technique. The estimation accuracy and execution time are compared for each basis matrix. Computer simulation results show that the DCT basis matrix exhibits less than 0.35% estimation error for the compressive ratio of 50% and about 6% average error for the compressive ratio of 70%. The proposed method which directly extracts frequency information from the CS signals can be extended to estimating for other ultrasonic parameters in the Quantitative Ultrasound (QUS) Analysis.

Assessment of uncertainty associated with parameter of gumbel probability density function in rainfall frequency analysis (강우빈도해석에서 Bayesian 기법을 이용한 Gumbel 확률분포 매개변수의 불확실성 평가)

  • Moon, Jang-Won;Moon, Young-Il;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.411-422
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    • 2016
  • Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

A Study on Determinants for Apartment Remodeling in Seoul Metropolitan Area (아파트 리모델링을 위한 의사결정 요인에 관한 연구 - 서울 및 경기 수도권을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Yongkyung;Lee, Jaewon;Lee, Sangyoub
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2019
  • If aging apartments are left unimproved through remodeling, the city will be eventually slum. As the government recognizes remodeling as an alternative to reconstruction, the law has been revised mainly to increase the housing area, increase the number of house and allow the vertical extension for making remodeling costs. However, the remodeling is still not activated yet in the market. Therefore, this study analyzes the decision factors of apartment remodeling in Seoul metropolitan area based on Heckman two-stage analysis considering sampling error. Research findings indicate that the decision for remodeling is determined by the characteristics of the household, housing, and time-lapse variables. And also the number of household members, net assets, housing satisfaction, the 11-20, 21-30, and more than 30 years of building are identified as the significant variables as a result of remodeling choice probability analysis. It is noteworthy that the significant variables from then remodeling cost analysis are net assets, area, more than 30 years of building, and unit housing price. It is also notable that the policy, which extend the housing area to cover remodeling cost, are not actually effective to activate the remodeling, and the age in the case of elderly people in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do who are expected to have high net assets and income is not significant variables. This study is expected to provide more objective and reliable implication to the policy makers, the home owner and the investors on the decision making process related to the remodeling project.

Evaluation of Analyzer and Measurement Conditions of Blood Ammonia (혈중 암모니아의 측정조건과 분석기기의 평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Su;Kim, Myong Soo;Lee, Seung Mo;Park, Chang-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.68-73
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    • 2016
  • Ammonia is very toxic, and causes neuronal damage via excitotoxicity, oxidative stress, and inflammation. Because the liver is the primary organ for ammonia metabolism, compromised liver function can result from inborn errors of metabolism. Measurement of blood ammonia has some limitations. Recently, several laboratories examined possible concurrent increases in plasma ammonia. However, the collection, handling, storage, and analysis of blood samples are all potential sources of error. For evaluation of rapidity and reliability of measurement of blood ammonia, the DRI-CHEM 100 (Fuji Film Co., Japan) and COBAS 8000 (Roche Diagnostic Ltd., Switzerland) analyzer were used for analysis of ammonia level values. The results of this study detected a high correlation between analyzer. Therefore, one-step measurement was suitable for ammonia analysis. After sampling of the ammonia in the time slot for measurement an increase to 46.5, 57.4, and 79.0 (${\mu}g/dL$) was observed at 30, 90, and 180 minutes. In addition, specific capacity of the ammonia, 7, 10, and 13 (${\mu}L$), was measured as 39, 46, and 43 (${\mu}g/dL$), respectively, and the FDC-100 analyzer was more effective in $10{\mu}L$ (p<0.001). In conclusion, the evaluated analysis may offer useful information for clinical application.

Stability Analysis of a Haptic System with a Human Impedance model using the Routh-Hurwitz Criterion (루드-후르비쯔 (Routh-Hurwitz) 안정성 판별법을 이용한 인간의 임피던스가 포함된 햅틱 시스템의 안정성 분석)

  • Lee, Kyungno
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1813-1818
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents the stability analysis of the haptic system including a human impedance using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The reflective force is computed from a virtual spring model and is transferred to a human operator using the first-order-hold method. The stability boundary conditions are induced and the relation among a virtual spring ($K_w$), the mass ($M_h$), the damping ($B_h$) and the stiffness ($K_h$) of a human impedance is analyzed. Hence the stability boundary of the virtual spring ($K_w$) is proposed as $K_w{\leq}54413{\sqrt{(M_h+M_d)(B_h+B_d)}}-0.486K_h$ when the sampling time is 1 ms. The average relative error is about 0.5% when the mathematical analysis results are compared with the results of the stability boundary model.

Spatial Variation Analysis of Soil Characteristics and Crop Growth accross the Land-partitioned Boundary I. Spatial Variation of Soil Physical Properties (구획경계선(區劃境界線)의 횡단면(橫斷面)에 따른 토양특성(土壤特性)과 작물생육(作物生育)에 관한 공간변이성(空間變異性) 분석(分析) 연구(硏究) I. 토양물리성(土壤物理性)의 공간변이성(空間變異性))

  • Park, Moo-Eon;Yoo, Sun-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 1989
  • In order to study spatial variability of soil physical properties accross the land-partitioned boundary on Hwadong silt clay loam soil (Fine clayey, mixed, mesic family of Aquic Hapludalfs), all measured data were analyzed by means of kriging, fractile diagram, smooth frequency distribution, and autocorrelation. Sampling for soil particle size distribution analysis was made at 225 intersections of $15{\times}15$ grid with 10m interval. Field capacity, bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity were measured in situ at 594 intersections of $33{\times}18$ grid with 2.5m interval in only $6,000m^2$ reselected from $22,500m^2$ of sampling area for particle size distribution analysis. Sampled or measured soil depths were 0 to 10cm 25 to 35cm and 50 to 60cm at each intersections. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The coefficient of variance (CV) of various physical properties ranges from 4.8 to 128.8%. Saturated hydraulic conductivity is classified into the high variation group with CV greater than 100%, while the low variation group with CV smaller than 10% consists of bulk density. Other properties belong to the medium variation group with CV between 10 and 100%. 2. The appropriate number of soil samples for the determination of various physical properties with error smaller than 10% are calculated as one for bulk density, six for field moisture capacity, 16 for silt, 19 for clay, 69 for sand and 686 for saturated hydraulic conductivity. 3. Smooth frequency distribution and fractile diagram show that saturated hydraulic conductivity is in lognormal distribution while other physical properties are in normal distribution. 4. Serial correlation analysis reveals that the soil physical properties have spatial dependence between two nearest neighbouring grid points. Autocorrelation analysis of physical properties measured between the serial grid points in the direction of south to north following section boundary shows that the zone of influence showing stationarity ranges from 7.5 to 40m. In the direction of east to west across section boundary, the autocorrelogram of many physical properties shows peaks with the periodic interval of 30m, which are similar to the partitioned land width. This reveals that the land-partitioned boundary causes soil variability.

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