• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sales Forecast

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A study on Development Process of Fish Aquaculture in Japan - Case by Seabream Aquaculture - (일본 어류 양식업의 발전과정과 산지교체에 관한 연구 : 참돔양식업을 사례로)

  • 송정헌
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.75-90
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    • 2003
  • When we think of fundamental problems of the aquaculture industry, there are several strict conditions, and consequently the aquaculture industry is forced to change. Fish aquaculture has a structural supply surplus in production, aggravation of fishing grounds, stagnant low price due to recent recession, and drastic change of distribution circumstances. It is requested for us to initiate discussion on such issue as “how fish aquaculture establishes its status in the coastal fishery\ulcorner, will fish aquaculture grow in the future\ulcorner, and if so “how it will be restructured\ulcorner” The above issues can be observed in the mariculture of yellow tail, sea scallop and eel. But there have not been studied concerning seabream even though the production is over 30% of the total production of fish aquaculture in resent and it occupied an important status in the fish aquaculture. The objectives of this study is to forecast the future movement of sea bream aquaculture. The first goal of the study is to contribute to managerial and economic studies on the aquaculture industry. The second goal is to identify the factors influencing the competition between production areas and to identify the mechanisms involved. This study will examine the competitive power in individual producing area, its behavior, and its compulsory factors based on case study. Producing areas will be categorized according to following parameters : distance to market and availability of transportation, natural environment, the time of formation of producing areas (leaderㆍfollower), major production items, scale of business and producing areas, degree of organization in production and sales. As a factor in shaping the production area of sea bream aquaculture, natural conditions especially the water temperature is very important. Sea bream shows more active feeding and faster growth in areas located where the water temperature does not go below 13∼14$^{\circ}C$ during the winter. Also fish aquaculture is constrained by the transporting distance. Aquacultured yellowtail is a mass-produced and a mass-distributed item. It is sold a unit of cage and transported by ship. On the other hand, sea bream is sold in small amount in markets and transported by truck; so, the transportation cost is higher than yellow tail. Aquacultured sea bream has different product characteristics due to transport distance. We need to study live fish and fresh fish markets separately. Live fish was the original product form of aquacultured sea bream. Transportation of live fish has more constraints than the transportation of fresh fish. Death rate and distance are highly correlated. In addition, loading capacity of live fish is less than fresh fish. In the case of a 10 ton truck, live fish can only be loaded up to 1.5 tons. But, fresh fish which can be placed in a box can be loaded up to 5 to 6 tons. Because of this characteristics, live fish requires closer location to consumption area than fresh fish. In the consumption markets, the size of fresh fish is mainly 0.8 to 2kg.Live fish usually goes through auction, and quality is graded. Main purchaser comes from many small-sized restaurants, so a relatively small farmer and distributer can sell it. Aquacultured sea bream has been transacted as a fresh fish in GMS ,since 1993 when the price plummeted. Economies of scale works in case of fresh fish. The characteristics of fresh fish is as follows : As a large scale demander, General Merchandise Stores are the main purchasers of sea bream and the size of the fish is around 1.3kg. It mainly goes through negotiation. Aquacultured sea bream has been established as a representative food in General Merchandise Stores. GMS require stable and mass supply, consistent size, and low price. And Distribution of fresh fish is undertook by the large scale distributers, which can satisfy requirements of GMS. The market share in Tokyo Central Wholesale Market shows Mie Pref. is dominating in live fish. And Ehime Pref. is dominating in fresh fish. Ehime Pref. showed remarkable growth in 1990s. At present, the dealings of live fish is decreasing. However, the dealings of fresh fish is increasing in Tokyo Central Wholesale Market. The price of live fish is decreasing more than one of fresh fish. Even though Ehime Pref. has an ideal natural environment for sea bream aquaculture, its entry into sea bream aquaculture was late, because it was located at a further distance to consumers than the competing producing areas. However, Ehime Pref. became the number one producing areas through the sales of fresh fish in the 1990s. The production volume is almost 3 times the production volume of Mie Pref. which is the number two production area. More conversion from yellow tail aquaculture to sea bream aquaculture is taking place in Ehime Pref., because Kagosima Pref. has a better natural environment for yellow tail aquaculture. Transportation is worse than Mie Pref., but this region as a far-flung producing area makes up by increasing the business scale. Ehime Pref. increases the market share for fresh fish by creating demand from GMS. Ehime Pref. has developed market strategies such as a quick return at a small profit, a stable and mass supply and standardization in size. Ehime Pref. increases the market power by the capital of a large scale commission agent. Secondly Mie Pref. is close to markets and composed of small scale farmers. Mie Pref. switched to sea bream aquaculture early, because of the price decrease in aquacultured yellou tail and natural environmental problems. Mie Pref. had not changed until 1993 when the price of the sea bream plummeted. Because it had better natural environment and transportation. Mie Pref. has a suitable water temperature range required for sea bream aquaculture. However, the price of live sea bream continued to decline due to excessive production and economic recession. As a consequence, small scale farmers are faced with a market price below the average production cost in 1993. In such kind of situation, the small-sized and inefficient manager in Mie Pref. was obliged to withdraw from sea bream aquaculture. Kumamoto Pref. is located further from market sites and has an unsuitable nature environmental condition required for sea bream aquaculture. Although Kumamoto Pref. is trying to convert to the puffer fish aquaculture which requires different rearing techniques, aquaculture technique for puffer fish is not established yet.

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Future Development of Genetics and the Broiler (BROILER 육종기술의 전망)

  • 오봉국
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 1981
  • In trying to predict the effect of genetics on the broiler in the year 2000, this is a relatively short period of time as far as broiler genetics in concerned. Modern broiler genetics started around 1945 and tremendous gains when made in past 35 years. Futher improvements on broiler will depend on the evolution and revolution: 1. Evolution: (1) Growth rate has been made 4-5% per year. (2) Feed conversion has improved approximately 1% per year. (3) Abdominal fat is becoming a major complaint in broiler. (4) Because of the changing life-style, broiler meat sales in the future will be more and more in cut-up form. (5) Breeding for stress resistance and selection for docile temperament can be important in order to funker improve fled efficiency. (6) In female parent stock, reproduction characteristics are in many can negatively correlated with the desired broiler traits. (7) Egg production and hatchability in moot commercial parent nod m at a fairly high level. (8) In male parent stock, the heavier and mon super-meat-type male lines are desired to Product better broilers. 2. Revolution: Trying to forecast revolutionary change in broiler genetics is highly speculative, as sudden change are aften unpredictable. (1) Species hybridization, such as a turkey-chicken cross (2) Biochemical tools, such as blood typing. (3) Mutation breeding by radiation or chemical mutagentia. (4) Broiler breeding would be to change the phenotypic appearance by single gene, such as naked, wingless. (5) Changes in production techniques. such as growing in cage or growing in filtered air positive pressure houses.

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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Examining the Relationships among Attitude toward Luxury Brands, Customer Equity, and Customer Lifetime Value in a Korean Context (측시이한국위배경적사치품패태도(测试以韩国为背景的奢侈品牌态度), 고객자산화고객종신개치지간적관계(顾客资产和顾客终身价值之间的关系))

  • Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Park, Seong-Yeon;Lee, Seung-Hee;Knight, Dee K.;Xu, Bing;Jeon, Byung-Joo;Moon, Hak-Il
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2010
  • During the past 10 years, sales of luxury goods increased significantly to more than US$ 130 billion in 2007. In this industry, more than half of the revenue comes from Asia where the average income has risen significantly, and the demand for luxury products is forecast to grow rapidly. Purchasing luxury brands appears to be an intriguing social phenomenon that is profitable for companies in this region. As a newly developed country, Korea is one of the most attractive luxury markets in Asia. Currently, a total of 120 luxury fashion brands have entered the Korean market, primarily in luxury districts in Seoul where the competition is fierce. The purposes of this study are to: (1) identify antecedents of attitude toward luxury brands, (2) examine the effect of attitudes toward luxury brands on customer equity, (3) determine the impact of attitudes toward luxury brands on customer lifetime value, and (4) investigate the influence of customer equity on customer life time value. Previous studies have examined materialism, social need, experiential need, need for uniqueness, conformity, and fashion involvement as antecedents of attitude toward luxury brands. Richins and Dowson (1992) suggested that that materialism influences consumption behavior relative to quantity of goods purchased. Nueno and Quelch (1998) reported that the ownership of luxury brands conveys information related to the owner's social status, communicates an image of success and prestige, and is a determinant of purchase behavior. Experiential need is recognized as an important aspect of consumption, especially for new products developed to meet consumer demand. Since luxury goods, by definition are relatively scarce, ownership of these types of products may fulfill consumers' need for uniqueness. In this study, value equity, relationship equity, and brand equity are examined as drivers of customer equity. The sample (n = 114) was undergraduate and graduate students at two private women's universities in Seoul, Korea. Data collection was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire survey in March, 2009. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, factor analysis, reliability analysis, and regression analysis using SPSS 15.0 software. Data analysis resulted in a number of conclusions. First, experiential need and fashion involvement positively influence participants' attitude toward luxury brands. Second, attitude toward luxury brands positively influences brand equity, followed by value equity and relationship equity. However, there is no significant relationship between attitude toward luxury brand and customer lifetime value. Finally, relationship equity positively influences customer lifetime value. In conclusion, young consumers are an important potential consumer group that tries different brands to discover the ones most suitable for them. Luxury marketers that use effective marketing strategies to attract and engender loyalty among this potentially lucrative consumer group may increase customer equity and lifetime value.

The Development and Application of Standard Diagnostic Table for Mountain Ginseng Management (산양삼 경영 표준진단표의 개발 및 현지 적용)

  • Jeon, Jun-Heon;Lee, Seong-Youn;Lee, Jung-Min;Ji, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Yeon-Tae;Kang, Kil-Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.103 no.4
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    • pp.622-629
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to develop a standard diagnostic table for mountain ginseng so that the cultivators not only can check their current level of management with the table, but also can understand and address operational challenges better by themselves utilizing the table. The standard diagnostic table consists of 3 categories and 18 subcategories to diagnose the general status of forestry households, the indicators of management performance and the level of management. To develop the table, the study conducted a survey on the actual condition of management, targeting 81 forestry households throughout 15 municipalities including Mu-ju, Jeollabukdo, and Ham-yang, Gyeongsangnamdo, all of which are the chief producing districts of mountain ginseng. Then, the study calculated total scores by regions by aggregating the scores of 18 subcategories, in order to evaluate and compare the management level among regions based on the scores. According to the result, the average score of 81 forestry households was 57.2 point-58% of which surveyed belonged to the range of 40-60 point. Compared by regions, the average score of Jeollabukdo regions was 52.9 point, the lowest, and that of Gyeongsangnamdo regions was 61.4 point, the highest. It is remarkable that among the indicators of management base, the average score of 'mounding (the height of mound)' item was recorded rather low with 1.59 point, reflecting the fact that the cultivators tend to raise mountain ginseng with no additional mounds. As for the indicators of production skills, the average score of the pest control item was remarkably low with 1.28 point. Over 90% of cultivators answered that they do not usually forecast or survey the pest disease in advance. Meanwhile, it is also noticeable that the item of sowing and planting methods, and the item of seed were both rather high, recording 4.00 and 4.47 point respectively. As for the item of management and sales skill, however, the score was rather low with 2.20 point, meaning that the forestry households still have a low interest in the business management.

Framework of Stock Market Platform for Fine Wine Investment Using Consortium Blockchain (공유경제 체제로서 컨소시엄 블록체인을 활용한 와인투자 주식플랫폼 프레임워크)

  • Chung, Yunkyeong;Ha, Yeyoung;Lee, Hyein;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.45-65
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    • 2020
  • It is desirable to invest in wine that increases its value, but wine investment itself is unfamiliar in Korea. Also, the process itself is unreasonable, and information is often forged, because pricing in the wine market is done by a small number of people. With the right solution, however, the wine market can be a desirable investment destination in that the longer one invests, the higher one can expect. Also, it is expected that the domestic wine consumption market will expand through the steady increase in domestic wine imports. This study presents the consortium block chain framework for revitalizing the wine market and enhancing transparency as the "right solution" of the nation's wine investment market. Blockchain governance can compensate for the shortcomings of the wine market because it guarantees desirable decision-making rights and accountability. Because the data stored in the block chain can be checked by consumers, it reduces the likelihood of counterfeit wine appearing and complements the process of unreasonably priced. In addition, digitization of assets resolves low cash liquidity and saves money and time throughout the supply chain through smart contracts, lowering entry barriers to wine investment. In particular, if the governance of the block chain is composed of 'chateau-distributor-investor' through consortium blockchains, it can create a desirable wine market. The production process is stored in the block chain to secure production costs, set a reasonable launch price, and efficiently operate the distribution system by storing the distribution process in the block chain, and forecast the amount of orders for futures trading. Finally, investors make rational decisions by viewing all of these data. The study presented a new perspective on alternative investment in that ownership can be treated like a share. We also look forward to the simplification of food import procedures and the formation of trust within the wine industry by presenting a framework for wine-owned sales. In future studies, we would like to expand the framework to study the areas to be applied.

Attention to the Internet: The Impact of Active Information Search on Investment Decisions (인터넷 주의효과: 능동적 정보 검색이 투자 결정에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Young Bong;Kwon, YoungOk;Cho, Wooje
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.117-129
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    • 2015
  • As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, a large volume of information is posted on the Internet with exponential growth every day. Accordingly, it is not unusual that investors in stock markets gather and compile firm-specific or market-wide information through online searches. Importantly, it becomes easier for investors to acquire value-relevant information for their investment decision with the help of powerful search tools on the Internet. Our study examines whether or not the Internet helps investors assess a firm's value better by using firm-level data over long periods spanning from January 2004 to December 2013. To this end, we construct weekly-based search volume for information technology (IT) services firms on the Internet. We limit our focus to IT firms since they are often equipped with intangible assets and relatively less recognized to the public which makes them hard-to measure. To obtain the information on those firms, investors are more likely to consult the Internet and use the information to appreciate the firms more accurately and eventually improve their investment decisions. Prior studies have shown that changes in search volumes can reflect the various aspects of the complex human behaviors and forecast near-term values of economic indicators, including automobile sales, unemployment claims, and etc. Moreover, search volume of firm names or stock ticker symbols has been used as a direct proxy of individual investors' attention in financial markets since, different from indirect measures such as turnover and extreme returns, they can reveal and quantify the interest of investors in an objective way. Following this line of research, this study aims to gauge whether the information retrieved from the Internet is value relevant in assessing a firm. We also use search volume for analysis but, distinguished from prior studies, explore its impact on return comovements with market returns. Given that a firm's returns tend to comove with market returns excessively when investors are less informed about the firm, we empirically test the value of information by examining the association between Internet searches and the extent to which a firm's returns comove. Our results show that Internet searches are negatively associated with return comovements as expected. When sample is split by the size of firms, the impact of Internet searches on return comovements is shown to be greater for large firms than small ones. Interestingly, we find a greater impact of Internet searches on return comovements for years from 2009 to 2013 than earlier years possibly due to more aggressive and informative exploit of Internet searches in obtaining financial information. We also complement our analyses by examining the association between return volatility and Internet search volumes. If Internet searches capture investors' attention associated with a change in firm-specific fundamentals such as new product releases, stock splits and so on, a firm's return volatility is likely to increase while search results can provide value-relevant information to investors. Our results suggest that in general, an increase in the volume of Internet searches is not positively associated with return volatility. However, we find a positive association between Internet searches and return volatility when the sample is limited to larger firms. A stronger result from larger firms implies that investors still pay less attention to the information obtained from Internet searches for small firms while the information is value relevant in assessing stock values. However, we do find any systematic differences in the magnitude of Internet searches impact on return volatility by time periods. Taken together, our results shed new light on the value of information searched from the Internet in assessing stock values. Given the informational role of the Internet in stock markets, we believe the results would guide investors to exploit Internet search tools to be better informed, as a result improving their investment decisions.

Development of a Feasibility Evaluation Model for Apartment Remodeling with the Number of Households Increasing at the Preliminary Stage (노후공동주택 세대수증가형 리모델링 사업의 기획단계 사업성평가 모델 개발)

  • Koh, Won-kyung;Yoon, Jong-sik;Yu, Il-han;Shin, Dong-woo;Jung, Dae-woon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.22-33
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    • 2019
  • The government has steadily revised and developed laws and systems for activating remodeling of apartments in response to the problems of aged apartments. However, despite such efforts, remodeling has yet to be activated. For many reasons, this study noted that there were no tools for reasonable profitability judgements and decision making in the preliminary stages of the remodeling project. Thus, the feasibility evaluation model was developed. Generally, the profitability judgements are made after the conceptual design. However, decisions to drive remodeling projects are made at the preliminary stage. So a feasibility evaluation model is required at the preliminary stage. Accordingly, In this study, a feasibility evaluation model was developed for determining preliminary stage profitability. Construction costs, business expenses, financial expenses, and generally sales revenue were calculated using the initial available information and remodeling variables derived through the existing cases. Through this process, we developed an algorithm that can give an overview of the return on investment. In addition, the preliminary stage feasibility evaluation model developed was applied to three cases to verify the applicability of the model. Although applied in three cases, the difference between the model's forecast and actual case values is less than 5%, which is considered highly applicable. If cases are expanded in the future, it will be a useful tool that can be used in actual work. The feasibility evaluation model developed in this study will support decision making by union members, and if the model is applied in different regions, it will be expected to help local governments to understand the size of possible remodeling projects.