• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.379-389
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• 2010

It is very important to determine a target probability of failure in reliability based design such as an allowable factor of safety in working stress design because they are indices to judge the stability of structures. We have carried out reliability analyses of nationwide gravity type quay walls and found that sliding and foundation failures of quay walls were dominant failure modes for every case of loads. And a target probability of failure for bearing capacity of foundation of quay wall was also determined in this study. Of several approaches which have been suggested until now, a couple of reasonable approaches were used. Firstly, in order to consider the safety margin of structures which have been executed so far, the reliability levels of existing structures were assessed. And then a mean probability of failure for the quay walls was estimated. In addition, life cycle cost(LCC) analyses for representative structures were performed. Probabilities of failure for several quay walls were calculated with changing the width of each quay wall section. LCC of quay wall which is requiring case by case during the service life was evaluated, and also the optimum probability of failure of quay wall which minimizes LCC was found. Finally, reasonable target probabilities of failure were suggested by comparing with mean probability of failure of existing structures.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.143-148
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• 2022

This paper attempted to analyze the correlation between the risk image of the evacuees in the tunnel and the variables that affect the evacuation behavior due to the closed feeling. As to whether there is a difference in the level of recognizing the tunnel risk image according to the distribution of jobs, the null hypothesis was rejected at the significance probability of 0.002, so it can be said that the level of recognition of the tunnel risk image varies depending on the job group. In the distribution difference between gender and tunnel risk image recognition level, the significance probability was 0.012, indicating that the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that the tunnel risk recognition distribution according to gender was different. As a result of analyzing the distribution difference between the tunnel's closed feeling and the tunnel risk perception level, the significance probability was 0.001, and the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that there was a difference in the tunnel risk image level.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2019

울산, 여주 등 산업단지의 고압매설배관에서 발생할 수 있는 굴착공사 등 타 공사로 인한 중대사고의 발생빈도를 도시가스 매설 배관과 비교하여 FTA에 의해 기초사상(Basic event)을 도출하여 제시한다. 또한 굴착빈도, 순찰주기 등 배관손상 영향 인자를 관찰 및 분석하고, 이들 인자의 중요도와 민감도를 Risk 비교분석을 통해 구해봄으로써 고압가스매설배관의 안전성 향상에 기여한다.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.631-645
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• 2011

The capacity design rule for beam-column joints, as adopted by the EC8, forces the formation of the plastic hinges to be developed in beams rather than in columns. This is achieved by deriving the design moments of the columns of a joint from equilibrium conditions, assuming that plastic hinges with their possible overstrengths have been developed in the adjacent beams of the joint. In this equilibrium the parameters (dimensions, material properties, axial forces etc) are, in general, random variables. Hence, the capacity design is associated with a probability of non-compliance (probability of failure). In the present study the probability of non-compliance of the capacity design rule of joints is being calculated by assuming the basic variables as random variables. Parameters affecting this probability are examined and a modification of the capacity design rule for beam-column joints is proposed, in order to achieve uniformity of the safety level.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.1183-1191
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• 2018

Reliability analysis is generally regarded as the most appropriate method when uncertainties are taken into account in slope designs. With the help of limit analysis, probability evaluation for three-dimensional rock slope stability was conducted based upon the Mote Carlo method. The nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion was employed to reflect the practical strength characteristics of rock mass. A form of stability factor is used to perform reliability analysis for rock slopes. Results show that the variation of strength uncertainties has significant influence on probability of failure for rock slopes, as well as strength constants. It is found that the relationship between probability of failure and mean safety factor is independent of the magnitudes of input parameters but relative to the variability of variables. Due to the phenomenon, curves displaying this relationship can provide guidance for designers to obtain factor of safety according to required failure probability.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.37-52
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• 2017

To quantitatively assess the safety against seismic collapse of eccentrically braced steel frame (EBSF) system, 24 typical EBSFs with K-shape and V-shape braces with seismic precautionary intensities 8 and 9 were designed complying with China seismic design code and relative codes to constitute archetype space of this structure system. In the archetype space, the collapse probability of the structural system under maximum considered earthquakes (MCE) was researched. The results show that the structures possess necessary safety against seismic collapse when they respectively encounter the maximum considered earthquakes corresponding to their seismic precautionary levels, and their collapse probabilities increase with increasing seismic precautionary intensities. Moreover, the EBSFs with V-shape braces have smaller collapse probability, thus greater capacity against seismic collapse than those with K-shape braces.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제15권11호
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• pp.5-12
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• 2014

사면은 건설된 후에도 집중강우나 지진, 풍화 등 외부요인으로 인해 파괴가 발생할 수 있기 때문에, 사면의 안정적 유지관리를 위해서는 사면 붕괴의 가능성을 파악하는 것이 필요하다. 특히 암반사면은 암석의 취성적인 특성으로 인해 변위 계측 등과 같은 일반적인 방법으로는 파괴발생이전에 사전징후를 감지하기 매우 어렵다. 그러나 AE 기법을 사면에 적용한다면 변위가 발생하기 전에 파괴 시 발생된 AE 신호를 분석함으로써 일반적인 계측 방법보다 초기에 상태파악이 가능할 것이다. 본 논문에서는 한국의 암반사면 중 붕괴 이력을 가지고 있는 사면에 AE 기법을 적용하여 사면붕괴 가능성을 파악하였다. 그 결과 붕괴위험이 있는 사면에 AE 기법을 적용하면 사면의 위치별 붕괴 가능성을 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 대한인간공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한인간공학회 1997년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.214-219
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• 1997

In spite of many accidents still occur repeatedly. The reason why we have so many accidents in industrial plants is mainly due to lack of effective safety education. Most safety education committed by safety staff is composed of general education and/or accident case studies. However, it is quite natural that the safety education should be more task- specific rather than general, if it be effective. Thus for preventing gas leakage accidents during changing explosive gas cylinders, this study aimed to analyze a manual chaning work in semiconductor plants, and to deaw importamt educational points. With the help of HRA and ETA, the most important task truned out to be reconfirmation of regulator gauges. Under the assump- tion of independent events, the estimated leakage probability was 23004E-05 which seriously understimated the probability, 8.1008E-05 under the assumption of dependent events. And the most probable situation would be gas leakge from the used gas cylinder. It was made clear that the assumption of independence could distrot safety educational focus.

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.47-58
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• 1985

본 연구에서는 토성정수와 하중을 종래의 단일치 대신 확률변수로 취급하여 얕은 기초의 신뢰도 해석을 시도하였다. 즉 토성정수와 하동을 점추정하는 대신 구간추정하여 얕은 기초의 안정성을 종래의 안전률 대신 파괴확률로 표시할 수 있었다. 이른바 허용안전률이 별다른 이론적 배경이 없는 경험의 소산에 불과하며 안전률이 수치적 안전척경가 되지 못한다는 태책을 감안하면 파괴확율은 보단 합리적인 신뢰도의 표현수단이 될 수 있다고 생각한다. 지전의 지지력과 하중은 정규분포, 대수총규분포 및 베타분포하는 것으로 가정하였고 이들 각 분포에 따르는 다수의 확률변수를 생성하여 오차전파방법으로 파괴확률을 산정하는 전산 프로그램을 개발하였다. 이 전산 프로그램을 이용하여 Case study를 하고 그 결과를 분석하였다.