• Title/Summary/Keyword: Safety Prediction

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Study on Tourism Demand Forecast and Influencing Factors in Busan Metropolitan City (부산 연안도시 관광수요 예측과 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kyu Won Hwang;Sung Mo Nam;Ah Reum Jang;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.915-929
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    • 2023
  • Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.

Safety and Efficacy of Ultrasound-Guided Percutaneous Core Needle Biopsy of Pancreatic and Peripancreatic Lesions Adjacent to Critical Vessels (주요 혈관 근처의 췌장 또는 췌장 주위 병변에 대한 초음파 유도하 경피적 중심 바늘 생검의 안전성과 효율성)

  • Sun Hwa Chung;Hyun Ji Kang;Hyo Jeong Lee;Jin Sil Kim;Jeong Kyong Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.5
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    • pp.1207-1217
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    • 2021
  • Purpose To evaluate the safety and efficacy of ultrasound-guided percutaneous core needle biopsy (USPCB) of pancreatic and peripancreatic lesions adjacent to critical vessels. Materials and Methods Data were collected retrospectively from 162 patients who underwent USPCB of the pancreas (n = 98), the peripancreatic area adjacent to the portal vein, the paraaortic area adjacent to pancreatic uncinate (n = 34), and lesions on the third duodenal portion (n = 30) during a 10-year period. An automated biopsy gun with an 18-gauge needle was used for biopsies under US guidance. The USPCB results were compared with those of the final follow-up imaging performed postoperatively. The diagnostic accuracy and major complication rate of the USPCB were calculated. Multiple factors were evaluated for the prediction of successful biopsies using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results The histopathologic diagnosis from USPCB was correct in 149 (92%) patients. The major complication rate was 3%. Four cases of mesenteric hematomas and one intramural hematoma of the duodenum occurred during the study period. The following factors were significantly associated with successful biopsies: a transmesenteric biopsy route rather than a transgastric or transenteric route; good visualization of targets; and evaluation of the entire US pathway. In addition, the number of biopsies required was less when the biopsy was successful. Conclusion USPCB demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy and a low complication rate for the histopathologic diagnosis of pancreatic and peripancreatic lesions adjacent to critical vessels.

Relationship among porcine lncRNA TCONS_00010987, miR-323, and leptin receptor based on dual luciferase reporter gene assays and expression patterns

  • Ding, Yueyun;Qian, Li;Wang, Li;Wu, Chaodong;Li, DengTao;Zhang, Xiaodong;Yin, Zongjun;Wang, Yuanlang;Zhang, Wei;Wu, Xudong;Ding, Jian;Yang, Min;Zhang, Liang;Shang, Jinnan;Wang, Chonglong;Gao, Yafei
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.219-229
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    • 2020
  • Objective: Considering the physiological and clinical importance of leptin receptor (LEPR) in regulating obesity and the fact that porcine LEPR expression is not known to be controlled by lncRNAs and miRNAs, we aim to characterize this gene as a potential target of SSC-miR-323 and the lncRNA TCONS_00010987. Methods: Bioinformatics analyses revealed that lncRNA TCONS_00010987 and LEPR have SSC-miR-323-binding sites and that LEPR might be a target of lncRNA TCONS_00010987 based on cis prediction. Wild-type and mutant TCONS_00010987-target sequence fragments and wild-type and mutant LEPR 3'-UTR fragments were generated and cloned into pmiRRB-REPORTTM-Control vectors to construct respective recombinant plasmids. HEK293T cells were co-transfected with the SSC-miR-323 mimics or a negative control with constructs harboring the corresponding binding sites and relative luciferase activities were determined. Tissue expression patterns of lncRNA TCONS_00010987, SSC-miR-323, and LEPR in Anqing six-end-white (AQ, the obese breed) and Large White (LW, the lean breed) pigs were detected by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction; backfat expression of LEPR protein was detected by western blotting. Results: Target gene fragments were successfully cloned, and the four recombinant vectors were constructed. Compared to the negative control, SSC-miR-323 mimics significantly inhibited luciferase activity from the wild-type TCONS_00010987-target sequence and wild-type LEPR-3'-UTR (p<0.01 for both) but not from the mutant TCONS_00010987-target sequence and mutant LEPR-3'-UTR (p>0.05 for both). Backfat expression levels of TCONS_00010987 and LEPR in AQ pigs were significantly higher than those in LW pigs (p<0.01), whereas levels of SSC-miR-323 in AQ pigs were significantly lower than those in LW pigs (p<0.05). LEPR protein levels in the backfat tissues of AQ pigs were markedly higher than those in LW pigs (p<0.01). Conclusion: LEPR is a potential target of SSC-miR-323, and TCONS_00010987 might act as a sponge for SSC-miR-323 to regulate LEPR expression.

Predictive Factors of Health promotion behaviors of Industrial Shift Workers (산업장 교대근무 근로자의 건강증진행위 예측요인)

  • Kim, Young-Mi
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.13-30
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    • 2002
  • Industrial shift workers feels suffer mental stresses which are caused by unfamiliar day sleep, noisy environment, sleeping disorder by bright light, unusual contacts with family, difficulty in meeting with friends or having formal social meetings and other social limitations such as the use of transportation. Such stresses influence health of the workers negatively. Thus the health promotion policy for shift workers should be made considering the workers' ways of living and shift work specially. This study attempted to provide basic information for development of the health promotion program for industrial shift workers by examining predictive factors influencing health promotion behaviors of those workers. In designing the study, three power generation plants located in Pusan and south Kyungsang province were randomly selected and therefrom 280 workers at central control, boiler and turbine rooms and environmental chemistry parts whose processes require shift works were sampled as subjects of the study. Data were collected two times from September 17 to October 8, 1999 using questionnaires with helps of safety and health managers of the plants. The questionnaires were distributed through mails or direct visits. Means for the study included the measurement tool of health promotion behavior provided by Park(1995), the tool of self-efficacy measurement by Suh(1995), the tool of internal locus of control measurement by Oh(1987), the measurement tool of perceived health state by Park(1995) and the tool of social support measurement by Paek(1995). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS program. Controlling factors of the subjects were evaluated in terms of frequency and percentage ratio Perceived factors and health promotion behaviors of the subjects were done so in terms of mean and standard deviation, and average mark and standard deviation, respectively. Relations between controlling and perceived factors were analyzed using t-test and ANOVA and those between perceived factors and the performance of health promotion behaviors, using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. The performance of health promotion behaviors was tested using t-test, ANOVA and post multi-comparison (Scheffe test). Predictive factors of health promotion behavior were examined through the Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis. Results of the study are summarized as follows. 1. The performance of health promotion behaviors by the subjects was evaluated as having the value of mean, $161.27{\pm}26.73$ points(min.:60, max.:240) and average mark, $2.68{\pm}0.44$ points(min.:1, max.:4). When the performance was analyzed according to related aspects, it showed the highest level in harmonious relation with average mark, $3.15{\pm}.56$ points, followed by hygienic life($3.03{\pm}.55$), self-realization ($2.84{\pm}.55$), emotional support($2.73{\pm}.61$), regular meals($2.71{\pm}.76$), self-control($2.62{\pm}.63$), health diet($2.62{\pm}.56$), rest and sleep($2.60{\pm}.59$), exercise and activity($2.53{\pm}.57$), diet control($2.52{\pm}.56$) and special health management($2.06{\pm}.65$). 2. In relations between perceived factors of the subjects(self-efficacy, internal locus of control, perceived health state) and the performance of health promotion behaviors, the performance was found having significantly pure relations with self-efficacy (r=.524, P=.000), internal locus of control (r=.225, P=.000) and perceived health state(r=.244, P=.000). The higher each evaluated point of the three factors was, the higher the performance was in level. 3. When relations between the controlling factors(demography-based social, health-related, job-related and human relations characteristics) and the performance of health promotion behaviors were analyzed, the performance showed significant differences according to marital status (t=2.09, P= .03), religion(F=3.93, P= .00) and participation in religious activities (F=8.10, P= .00) out of demography-based characteristics, medical examination results (F=7.20, P= .00) and methods of the collection of health knowledge and information(F=3.41, P= .01) and methods of desired health education(F=3.41, P= .01) out of health-related characteristics, detrimental factors perception(F=4.49, P= .01) and job satisfaction(F=8.41, P= .00) out of job-related characteristics and social support(F=14.69, P= .00) out of human relations characteristics. 4. The factor which is a variable predicting best the performance of health promotion behaviors by the subjects was the self-efficacy accounting for 27.4% of the prediction, followed by participation in religious activities, social support, job satisfaction, received health state and internal locus of control in order all of which totally account for 41.0%. In conclusion, the predictive factor which most influence the performance of health promotion behaviors by shift workers was self-efficacy. To promote the sense, therefore, it is necessary to develop the nursing intervention program considering predictive factors as variables identified in this study. Further industrial nurses should play their roles actively to help shift workers increase their capability of self-management of health.

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Korean Ocean Forecasting System: Present and Future (한국의 해양예측, 오늘과 내일)

  • Kim, Young Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Lee, Jun-Soo;Byun, Do-Seong;Kang, Kiryong;Kim, Young-Gyu;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.89-103
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    • 2013
  • National demands for the ocean forecasting system have been increased to support economic activity and national safety including search and rescue, maritime defense, fisheries, port management, leisure activities and marine transportation. Further, the ocean forecasting has been regarded as one of the key components to improve the weather and climate forecasting. Due to the national demands as well as improvement of the technology, the ocean forecasting systems have been established among advanced countries since late 1990. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) significantly contributed to the achievement and world-wide spreading of ocean forecasting systems. Four stages of GODAE were summarized. Goal, vision, development history and research on ocean forecasting system of the advanced countries such as USA, France, UK, Italy, Norway, Australia, Japan, China, who operationally use the systems, were examined and compared. Strategies of the successfully established ocean forecasting systems can be summarized as follows: First, concentration of the national ability is required to establish successful operational ocean forecasting system. Second, newly developed technologies were shared with other countries and they achieved mutual and cooperative development through the international program. Third, each participating organization has devoted to its own task according to its role. In Korean society, demands on the ocean forecasting system have been also extended. Present status on development of the ocean forecasting system and long-term plan of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration), NFRDI (National Fisheries Research & Development Institute), ADD (Agency for Defense Development) were surveyed. From the history of the pre-established systems in other countries, the cooperation among the relevant Korean organizations is essential to establish the accurate and successful ocean forecasting system, and they can form a consortium. Through the cooperation, we can (1) set up high-quality ocean forecasting models and systems, (2) efficiently invest and distribute financial resources without duplicate investment, (3) overcome lack of manpower for the development. At present stage, it is strongly requested to concentrate national resources on developing a large-scale operational Korea Ocean Forecasting System which can produce open boundary and initial conditions for local ocean and climate forecasting models. Once the system is established, each organization can modify the system for its own specialized purpose. In addition, we can contribute to the international ocean prediction community.

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Application of Predictive Microbiology for Shelf-life Estimation of Tteokgalbi Containing Dietary Fiber from Rice Bran (예측미생물학을 활용한 미강 식이섬유 함유 떡갈비의 유통기한 설정)

  • Heo, Chan;Kim, Hyoun-Wook;Choi, Yun-Sang;Kim, Cheon-Jei;Paik, Hyun-Dong
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.232-239
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study is to estimate the shelf-life of Tteokgalbi containing dietary fiber extracted from rice bran by using the predictive microbiology. This Tteokgalbi was made with 0%, 1%, 2%, and 3% dietary fiber. The number of total viable cells, anaerobic, psychrotrophic, and heat-stable bacteria and coliforms was calculated during 15 days of storage under $4{\pm}1^{\circ}C$ and the obtained data was applied to Baranyi function. The evaluation of fitness between predicted and observed data showed that these were matched in a satisfactory way. Heat-stable bacteria was detected lower than <1 log CFU/g and coliforms were not detected during the storage. The changes of total viable cells and psychrotrophic bacteria in Tteokgalbi were increased gradually, but dramatically increased after 3 days of storage. The models of total viable cells and anaerobic bacteria showed very similar growth trends and values of growth parameters each other. The estimated shelf-life of each Tteokgalbi was calculated from the predictive model of total viable cells and the estimated shelf-life was 1.7, 2.3, 2.3, and 2.4 days, respectively. The results suggested that the prediction of bacteria growth could be used to evaluate the microbiological safety and determine the shelf-life of Tteokgalbi as ready-to-eat food in the local market.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research: A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2014 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향: 2014년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.380-394
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    • 2015
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2014. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of heat and mass transfer, cooling and heating, and air-conditioning, the flow inside building rooms, and smoke control on fire. Research issues dealing with duct and pipe were reduced, but flows inside building rooms, and smoke controls were newly added in thermal and fluid engineering research area. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results for thermal contact resistance measurement of metal interface, a fan coil with an oval-type heat exchanger, fouling characteristics of plate heat exchangers, effect of rib pitch in a two wall divergent channel, semi-empirical analysis in vertical mesoscale tubes, an integrated drying machine, microscale surface wrinkles, brazed plate heat exchangers, numerical analysis in printed circuit heat exchanger. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, non-uniform air flow, PCM applied thermal storage wall system, a new wavy cylindrical shape capsule, and HFC32/HFC152a mixtures on enhanced tubes, were actively studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches on solar water storage tank, effective design on the inserting part of refrigerator door gasket, impact of different boundary conditions in generating g-function, various construction of SCW type ground heat exchanger and a heat pump for closed cooling water heat recovery were performed. (3) In the field of refrigeration, various studies were carried out in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration and modelling and controls including energy recoveries from industrial boilers and vehicles, improvement of dehumidification systems, novel defrost systems, fault diagnosis and optimum controls for heat pump systems. It is particularly notable that a substantial number of studies were dedicated for the development of air-conditioning and power recovery systems for electric vehicles in this year. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, seventeen studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, and renewable energies, piping in the buildings. Proposed designs, performance performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which can improve the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the evaluation of work noise in tunnel construction and the simulation and development of a light-shelf system. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy saving of office building applied with window blind and phase change material(PCM), a method of existing building energy simulation using energy audit data, the estimation of thermal consumption unit of apartment building and its case studies, dynamic window performance, a writing method of energy consumption report and energy estimation of apartment building using district heating system. The remained studies were related to the improvement of architectural engineering education system for plant engineering industry, estimating cooling and heating degree days for variable base temperature, a prediction method of underground temperature, the comfort control algorithm of car air conditioner, the smoke control performance evaluation of high-rise building, evaluation of thermal energy systems of bio safety laboratory and a development of measuring device of solar heat gain coefficient of fenestration system.

Risk Ranking Analysis for the City-Gas Pipelines in the Underground Laying Facilities (지하매설물 중 도시가스 지하배관에 대한 위험성 서열화 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 2004
  • In this article, we are to suggest the hazard-assessing method for the underground pipelines, and find out the pipeline-maintenance schemes of high efficiency in cost. Three kinds of methods are applied in order to refer to the approaching methods of listing the hazards for the underground pipelines: the first is RBI(Risk Based Inspection), which firstly assess the effect of the neighboring population, the dimension, thickness of pipe, and working time. It enables us to estimate quantitatively the risk exposure. The second is the scoring system which is based on the environmental factors of the buried pipelines. Last we quantify the frequency of the releases using the present THOMAS' theory. In this work, as a result of assessing the hazard of it using SPC scheme, the hazard score related to how the gas pipelines erodes indicate the numbers from 30 to 70, which means that the assessing criteria define well the relative hazards of actual pipelines. Therefore. even if one pipeline region is relatively low score, it can have the high frequency of leakage due to its longer length. The acceptable limit of the release frequency of pipeline shows 2.50E-2 to 1.00E-l/yr, from which we must take the appropriate actions to have the consequence to be less than the acceptable region. The prediction of total frequency using regression analysis shows the limit operating time of pipeline is the range of 11 to 13 years, which is well consistent with that of the actual pipeline. Concludingly, the hazard-listing scheme suggested in this research will be very effectively applied to maintaining the underground pipelines.

Calculation Method of Oil Slick Area on Sea Surface Using High-resolution Satellite Imagery: M/V Symphony Oil Spill Accident (고해상도 광학위성을 이용한 해상 유출유 면적 산출: 심포니호 기름유출 사고 사례)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Shin, Hye-Kyeong;Jang, So Yeong;Ryu, Joung-Mi;Kim, Pyeongjoong;Yang, Chan-Su
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_1
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    • pp.1773-1784
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    • 2021
  • In order to minimize damage to oil spill accidents in the ocean, it is essential to collect a spilled area as soon as possible. Thus satellite-based remote sensing is a powerful source to detect oil spills in the ocean. With the recent rapid increase in the number of available satellites, it has become possible to generate a status report of marine oil spills soon after the accident. In this study, the oil spill area was calculated using various satellite images for the Symphony oil spill accident that occurred off the coast of Qingdao Port, China, on April 27, 2021. In particular, improving the accuracy of oil spill area determination was applied using high-resolution commercial satellite images with a spatial resolution of 2m. Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, LANDSAT-8, GEO-KOMPSAT-2B (GOCI-II) and Skysat satellite images were collected from April 27 to May 13, but five images were available considering the weather conditions. The spilled oil had spread northeastward, bound for coastal region of China. This trend was confirmed in the Skysat image and also similar to the movement prediction of oil particles from the accident location. From this result, the look-alike patch observed in the north area from the Sentinel-1A (2021.05.01) image was discriminated as a false alarm. Through the survey period, the spilled oil area tends to increase linearly after the accident. This study showed that high-resolution optical satellites can be used to calculate more accurately the distribution area of spilled oil and contribute to establishing efficient response strategies for oil spill accidents.