• Title/Summary/Keyword: SSP Scenario

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A Comparison of Predictive Power among SSP Scenarios of Oyster Aquaculture Production (SSP 시나리오별 굴 양식 생산량 예측력 비교)

  • Min-Gyeong Jeong;Jong-Oh Nam
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is a major global problem. Oysters, one of the most representative farmed fish in Korea, are attracting attention as candidates for blue carbon, an alternative to carbon neutrality. This study is analyzed by the SSP scenarios to determine the impact of oyster aquaculture production according to climate change. Based on the analysis, future productions of oysters are predicted by the SSP scenario. Significant differences by the SSP scenario are confirmed through predictive power tests among scenarios. Regression analysis was conducted from January 2001 to December 2014. As a result of the analysis, water temperature, water temperature quadratic term, salinity, salinity quadratic term, and month × water temperature cross term were estimated as significant variables. Oyster production which is predicted by the SSP scenario based on the significant variables from 2015 to 2022 was compared with actual production. The model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE and MAPE criteria. The predictive power was compared with the MDM test to determine which model was superior. As a result, based on RMSE and MAPE, the SSP1-2.6 scenario was selected as the best model and the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios all showed the same predictive power based on the MDM test. In conculusion, this study predicted oyster aquaculture production by 2030, not the distant future, due to the short duration of the analytical model. This study was found that oyster aquaculture production increased in all scenarios and there was no significant difference in predictive power by the SSP scenario.

Estimation of Future Land Cover Considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways using Scenario Generators (Scenario Generator를 활용한 사회경제경로 시나리오 반영 미래 토지피복 추정)

  • Song, Cholho;Yoo, Somin;Kim, Moonil;Lim, Chul-Hee;Kim, Jiwon;Kim, Sea Jin;Kim, Gang Sun;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.223-234
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    • 2018
  • Estimation of future land cover based on climate change scenarios is an important factor in climate change impact assessment and adaptation policy. This study estimated future land cover considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) using Scenario Generators. Based on the storylines of SSP1-3, future population and estimated urban area were adopted for the transition matrix, which contains land cover change trends of each land cover class. In addition, limits of land cover change and proximity were applied as spatial data. According to the estimated land cover maps from SSP1-3 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, urban areas near a road were expanded, but agricultural areas and forests were gradually decreased. More drastic urban expansion was seen in SSP3 compared to SSP1 and SSP2. These trends are similar with previous research with regard to storyline, but the spatial results were different. Future land cover can be easily adjusted based on this approach, if econometric forecasts for each land cover class added. However, this requires determination of econometric forecasts for each land cover class.

Future Runoff Characteristics of Ganwol Estuary Reservoir Watershed Based on SSP Scenarios (SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 간월호 유역의 미래 유출특성 변화)

  • Kim, Sinae;Kim, Donghee;Kim, Seokhyeon;Hwang, Soonho;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.5
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2023
  • The estuary reservoir is a major source of agricultural water in Korea; for effective and sustainable water resource management of the estuary reservoir, it is crucial to comprehensively consider various water resource factors, including water supply, flood, and pollutant management, and analyze future runoff changes in consideration of environmental changes such as climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of future climate change on the runoff characteristics of an estuary reservoir watershed. Climate data on future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate past and future long-term runoff of the Ganwol estuary reservoir watershed. The findings showed that as the impact of climate change intensified, the average annual runoff in the future period was higher in the order of SSP5, SSP3, SSP1, and SSP2, and the ratio of runoff in July decreased while the ratio of runoff in October increased. Moreover, in terms of river flow regime, the SSP2 scenario was found to be the most advantageous and the SSP3 scenario was the most disadvantageous. The findings of this study can be used as basic data for developing sustainable water resource management plans and can be applied to estuary reservoir models to predict future environmental changes in estuary reservoirs.

Prediction of Changes in Potential Distribution of Warm-Temperate and Subtropical Trees, Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium in South Korea (남한에서 기후변화에 따른 난아열대 목본식물, Myrica rubra와 Syzygium buxifolium의 잠재분포 변화 예측)

  • Eun-Young, Yim;Hyun-kyu, Won;Jong-Seo, Won;Dana, Kim;Hyungjin, Cho
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.282-289
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    • 2022
  • Analyzing the impact of climate change on the Korean Peninsula on the forest ecosystem is important for the management of subtropical forest bioresources. In this study, we collected location data and bioclimatic variables of the warm-temperate woody plant species, Myrica rubra and Cyzygium buxifolium, and applied the MaxEnt model based on the collected data to estimate the potential distribution area. Precipitation and temperature seasonality in the warmest quarter were the main environmental factors that determined the distribution of M. rubra, and the main environmental factors for S. buxifolium were precipitation in the warmest quarter and precipitation in the wettest quarter. The results of the MaxEnt model by administrative district, the M. rubra showed an area increase rate of 4.6 - 17.7% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 13.8 - 30.5% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. S. buxifolium showed area increase rates of 4.8 - 32.2% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 12.9 - 48.6% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. This study is meaningful in establishing a database and identifying future potential distribution areas of warm and subtropical plants by applying climate change scenarios.

Dynamic Survivable Routing for Shared Segment Protection

  • Tapolcai, Janos;Ho, Pin-Han
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.198-209
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    • 2007
  • This paper provides a thorough study on shared segment protection (SSP) for mesh communication networks in the complete routing information scenario, where the integer linear program (ILP) in [1] is extended such that the following two constraints are well addressed: (a) The restoration time constraint for each connection request, and (b) the switching/merging capacity constraint at each node. A novel approach, called SSP algorithm, is developed to reduce the extremely high computation complexity in solving the ILP formulation. Basically, our approach is to derive a good approximation on the parameters in the ILP by referring to the result of solving the corresponding shared path protection (SPP) problem. Thus, the design space can be significantly reduced by eliminating some edges in the graphs. We will show in the simulation that with our approach, the optimality can be achieved in most of the cases. To verify the proposed formulation and investigate the performance impairment in terms of average cost and success rate by the additional two constraints, extensive simulation work has been conducted on three network topologies, in which SPP and shared link protection (SLP) are implemented for comparison. We will demonstrate that the proposed SSP algorithm can effectively and efficiently solve the survivable routing problem with constraints on restoration time and switching/merging capability of each node. The comparison among the three protection types further verifies that SSP can yield significant advantages over SPP and SLP without taking much computation time.

Future Projection of Extreme Climate over the Korean Peninsula Using Multi-RCM in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Project (CORDEX-EA Phase 2 다중 지역기후모델을 이용한 한반도 미래 극한 기후 전망)

  • Kim, Do-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Byun, Young-Hwa;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Won;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Cha, Dong-Hyun;Min, Seung-Ki;Chang, Eun-Chul
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.607-623
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    • 2021
  • This study presents projections of future extreme climate over the Korean Peninsula (KP), using bias-corrected data from multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 project. In order to confirm difference according to degree of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, high GHG path of SSP5-8.5 and low GHG path of SSP1-2.6 scenario are used. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, mean temperature and precipitation over KP are projected to increase by 6.38℃ and 20.56%, respectively, in 2081~2100 years compared to 1995~2014 years. Projected changes in extreme climate suggest that intensity indices of extreme temperatures would increase by 6.41℃ to 8.18℃ and precipitation by 24.75% to 33.74%, being bigger increase than their mean values. Both of frequency indices of the extreme climate and consecutive indices of extreme precipitation are also projected to increase. But the projected changes in extreme indices vary regionally. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the extreme climate indices would increase less than SSP5-8.5 scenario. In other words, temperature (precipitation) intensity indices would increase 2.63℃ to 3.12℃ (14.09% to 16.07%). And there is expected to be relationship between mean precipitation and warming, which mean precipitation would increase as warming with bigger relationship in northern KP (4.08% ℃-1) than southern KP (3.53% ℃-1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected relationship, however, is not significant for extreme precipitation. It seems because of complex characteristics of extreme precipitation from summer monsoon and typhoon over KP.

Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario (SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석)

  • Kim, Jihye;Kwak, Jihye;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang Min;Lee, Sunghack;Lee, Jae Nam;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.5
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

Impacts of Carbon Neutrality and Air Quality Control on Near-term Climate Change in East Asia (탄소중립과 대기질 개선 정책이 동아시아 근 미래 기후변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Youn-Ah Kim;Jung Choi;Seok-Woo Son
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.505-517
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policies on near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), and high carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. For these scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface air temperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency (TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in East Asia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustly forced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes the impact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effective than an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

A Study on Statistical Characteristics for Extreme Rainfall based on CMIP6 SSP scenario - Focused on Busan Metropolitan City (CMIP6 SSP 시나리오 극한 강우량의 통계적 특성 연구 - 부산광역시를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sunghun;Kim, Heechul;Kim, Gyobeom;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.410-410
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    • 2022
  • 기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)에서는 지난해부터 제6차 평가보고서(Sixth Assessment Report, AR6)를 준비하고 있으며, 최근 Working Group II에서 수행한 기후변화 영향, 적응 및 취약성(Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) 보고서를 공개하였다. 보고서는 기존의 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 시나리오에 사회경제적 조건을 추가로 고려한 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오를 제시하였고, 세계기후연구프로그램(World Climate Research Programme, WCRP)의 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)에서 제공하는 6단계(Phase 6) 미래 전망 자료를 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화로 인한 미래 극한 강우량의 통계적 특성을 파악하기 위하여 CMIP6에서 제공하는 General Circulation Models (GCMs) 기반 미래 강우자료를 수집하여 부산광역시를 중심으로 분석하였다. 4개의 SSP (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) 시나리오별로 10개 GCMs의 모의 결과를 사용하였다. Gumbel 분포형과 확률가중모멘트법을 이용하여 미래 극한 강우량을 산정하였고, 현재 모의기간(S0, 1983-2014) 대비 미래 전망기간(S1, 2015-2044; S2, 2041-2070; S3, 2071-2100)의 변화를 재현기간(return period, T)별로 분석하여 제시하였다.

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Future hydrological changes in Jeju Island based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios (CMIP6 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 제주도 지역의 미래 수문변화 전망)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Jeong Eun;Chang, Sunwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.737-749
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we analyzed the hydrological impacts of future climate change on Jeju Island using SSP-based climate change scenarios from 18 climate models and watershed modeling (SWAT-K). Despite discrepancies among climate models, we generally observed an increase in evapotranspiration due to rising future temperatures. Furthermore, a significant increase in runoff and recharge was noted due to increased precipitation. These increasing trends were particularly pronounced in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and differences among GCM models became more significant in the late 21 century. When compared to the historical period (1981-2010), the projected changes for the far-future period (2071-2100) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario showed a 21.4% increase in precipitation, a 19.2% increase in evapotranspiration, a 40.9% increase in runoff, and a 16.6% increase in recharge on an annual average basis. On a monthly basis in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, precipitation was expected to increase by 24.5% in September, evapotranspiration by 34.1% in April, runoff by 58.1% in October, and recharge by 33.8% in September. To further assess projections based on extreme climate scenarios, we selected two models, CanESM5 and ACCESS-ESM1-5, which represented the maximum and minimum future precipitation forecasts, and compared the hydrological changes in the future scenarios. The results indicated that runoff and recharge rates were relatively higher in the CanESM5 model with the highest precipitation forecast, while evapotranspiration rates were higher in the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model with the lowest precipitation forecast. Based on the climate change scenarios used in this study, the overall available water resources on Jeju Island are more likely to increase. However, since results vary by season and region depending on the climate model and scenario, it is considered necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis and develop response measures using various scenarios.