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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Studies on the Roadside Revegetation and Landscape Reconstruction Measures (도로녹화(道路綠化) 및 도로조경기술개발(道路造景技術開発)에 관(関)한 연구(硏究))

  • Woo, Bo Myeong;Son, Doo Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 1980
  • One of the most important basic problems for developing the new techniques in the field of road landscape planting practices in Korea, is to clarify, analyse, and evaluate the existing technical level through actual field survey on the various kinds of planting techniques. This study is, therefore, aimed at the good grasp of detail essences of the existing level of road landscape planting techniques through field investigations of the executed sites. In this study, emphasized efforts are made to the detail analysis and systematic rearrangements of such main subjects as; 1) principles and functions of the road landscape planting techniques; 2) essential elements in planning of it; 3) advanced practices in execution of planting of it; 4) and improved methods in maintenance of plants and lands as an entire system of road landscape planting techniques. The road landscape planting techniques could be explained as the planting and landscaping practices to improve the road function through introduction of plants (green-environment) on and around the roads. The importances of these techniques have been recognized by the landscape architects and road engineers, and they also emphasize not on]y the establishment of road landscape features but also conservation of human's life environment by planting of suitable trees, shrubs, and other vegetations around the roads. It is essentially required to improve the present p]anting practices for establishment of the beautiful road landscape features, specially in planning, design, execution, establishment, and maintenance of plantings of the environmental conservation belts, roadside trees, footpathes, median strips, traffic islands, interchanges, rest areas, and including the adjoining route roads.

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Studies on the Biochemical Features of Soybean Seeds for Higher Protein Variety -With Emphasis on Accumulation during Maturation and Electrophoretic Patterns of Proteins- (고단백 대두 품종 육성을 위한 종실의 생화학적 특성에 관한 연구 -단백질의 축적과 전기영동 유형을 중심으로)

  • Jong-Suk Lee
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.135-166
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    • 1977
  • Some biochemical features of varietal variation in seed protein and their implications for soybean breeding for high protein were pursued employing 86 soybean varieties of Korea, Japan, and the U.S.A. origins. Also, studied comparatively was the temporal pattern of protein components accumulation during seed development characteristic to the high protein variety. Seed protein content of the 86 soybean varieties varied 34.4 to 50.6%. Non-existence of variety having high content of both protein and oil, or high protein content with average oil content as well as high negative correlation between the content of protein and oil (r=-0.73$^{**}$) indicate strongly a great difficulty to breed high protein variety while conserving oil content. The total content of essential amino acids varied 32.82 to 36.63% and the total content of sulfur-containing amino acids varied 2.09 to 2.73% as tested for 12 varieties differing protein content from 40.0 to 50.6%. The content of methionine was positively correlated with the content of glutamic acid, which was the major amino acid (18.5%) in seed protein of soybean. In particular, the varieties Bongeui and Saikai #20 had high protein content as well as high content of sulfur-containing amino acids. The content of lysine was negatively correlated with that of isoleucine, but positively correlated with protein content. The content of alanine, valine or leucine was correlated positively with oil content. The seed protein of soybean was built with 12 to 16 components depending on variety as revealed on disc acrylamide gel electrophoresis. The 86 varieties were classified into 11 groups of characteristic electrophoretic pattern. The protein component of Rm=0.14(b) showed the greatest varietal variation among the components in their relative contents, and negative correlation with the content of the other components, while the protein component of Rm=0.06(a) had a significant, positive correlation with protein content. There was sequential phases of rapid decrease, slow increase and stay in the protein content during seed development. Shorter period and lower rate of decrease followed by longer period and higher rate of increase in protein content during seed development was of characteristic to high protein variety together with earlier and continuous development at higher rate of the protein component a. Considering the extremely low methionine content of the protein component a, breeding for high protein content may result in lower quality of soybean protein.n.

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Clinical Results after Repair of Rotator Cuff Tear in Patients with Accompanying AC Joint Pathology: Clinical Comparison of Non-operative Treatment (회전근개 파열과 동반된 견봉 쇄골 관절 병변이 회전근개 봉합술 후 결과에 미치는 영향: 비수술적 치료를 통한 임상적 비교)

  • Yoo, Moon-Jib;Seo, Joong-Bae;Lee, Dae-Hee;Kim, Sung-Jin
    • Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.86-90
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: We studied the need for distal clavicle resection by comparing rotator cuff tear patients who underwent non-surgical treatment with and without acromioclavicular joint pathology. Materials and Methods: 45 cases that had been under follow up care for at least 9 months after receiving rotator cuff repair in our hospital between Jan. 2005 and Jun. 2011 had been studied. Acromioclavicular joint pathology group and control group were classified by physical examination and MRI findings. The temporal changes in shoulder joint abduction, internal and external rotation strength, ASES and KSS score of the two groups were measured and analyzed. Results: The acromioclavicular joint pathology complicated rotator cuff injury group's strength measurements for abduction, internal rotation, external rotation were each 8.05 (${\pm}4.54$), 11.33 (${\pm}6.05$), 10.24 (${\pm}5.27$) preoperatively and improved to 13.26 (${\pm}5.50$), 17.51 (${\pm}6.80$), 15.60 (${\pm}5.37$) post operatively while the KSS score and ASES score were each 49.07 (${\pm}15.28$) and 48.65 (${\pm}13.27$) preoperatively, improving to 84.48 (${\pm}10.96$) and 84.65. (${\pm}9.86$). The measurements for the group without complicating acromioclavicular pathology are as follows. The strength for abduction, internal rotation, external rotation was each 6.42 (${\pm}3.11$), 7.59 (${\pm}4.81$) and 7.93 (${\pm}4.49$) preoperatively, improving to 15.85 (${\pm}7.35$), 19.18 (${\pm}9.14$), 16.95 (${\pm}5.70$) post operatively, while the KSS score and ASES score each went from 42.12 (${\pm}6.43$) and 41.37 (${\pm}7.42$) to 83.44 (${\pm}6.30$) and 83.17 (${\pm}7.01$) respectively. The measurements for the two groups, however, did not show a statistically significant difference (p>0.05). Conclusion: Analysis of the rotator cuff injury groups with and without AC joint pathology showed that both groups had improved strength, ASES and KSS scores with no statistical difference difference among the groups. As such, it thought that conservative treatment is an acceptable alternative to distal clavicle resection.

Effects of CDP-Choline, Aminoguanidine and Difluoromethylornithine on the ECS-induced Impairment of Active Conditioned Response Retention (백서의 조건회피반응-유지에 대한 경련성 전기충격의 저해작용에 미치는 CDP-Choline, Aminoguanidine, 및 Difluoromethylornithine의 영향에 관한 연구 : 뇌내 Acetylcholine과 Polyamine 함량-변동에 연관하여)

  • Kim, Hyung-Gun;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Choi, Sang-Hyun;Ihm, Suk-Young;Lee, Min-Soo;Chun, Boe-Gwun
    • The Korean Journal of Pharmacology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 1992
  • The training of male wistar rats for active conditioned response (ACR) was performed by one daily training session of 30 consecutive trials for 10 successive days using a two-way shuttle box, and the rats that showed 10 or more ACRs on the last day were treated for further 10 days with electroconvulsive shock (ECS : 50 mA, 0.5 msec; 100 Hz; 1.5 sec) and the following compounds. On the 20th day, all the rats were tested for the ACR rention. The ECS regimens were one ECS per day for 10 days with one day interval $(5{\times}ECS)$, one ECS at 3 hrs (ECS-3h), and one ECS at 24 hrs (ECS-24h), respectively, before the ACR retention test. And CDP-choline (cc: 250 mg/kg), spermine (SM: 10 mg/kg), ${\alpha}-difluoromethylornithine$ (DO: 250 mg/kg), or aminoguanidine (AG: 100 mg/kg) was administered by one daily i.p. injection for 10 days. The ACR number $(13.7{\pm}1.0)$ obtained on the last training day was increased by 37.23% on the 20th day in the control rats. And the ACR increase was significantly suppressed by 5-ECS, ECS-3h, CC, or SM but was little affected by ECS-24h, DO, or AG. However, the 5-ECS induced impairment of ACR retention was significantly suppressed by AG, SM, and CC in the order of potency but was little affected by DFMO. And the ECS-3h induced impairment was moderately worsened by SM or AG. The acetylcholine (ACh) of the rat hypothalamus (HT), hippocampus (HC), and entorhinal cortex (EC) was markedly increased by CC and moderately increased by SM, but little affected by ECS-3h, ECS-24h, DO, or AG. But $5{\times}ECS$ slightly increased the ACh content. The brain putrescine (Pt) content was significantly increased by AG and little affected by CC, SM, or DO. But the $5{\times}ECS$ markedy decreased the brain Pt content, and the decrease was significantly suppressed by CC, SM, or AG. CC induced the marked increases of the spermidine (Sd) and spermine (Sm) contents of all the areas. SM increased the Sd contents of all the areas and the EC-Sm content. DO decreased the brain Sd and Sm contents. And AG increased the HT-Sd content and the Sm contents of all the brain areas. The $5{\times}ECS$ induced decrease of the HC-Sm content was suppressed by CC, SM and AG. These results suggest that the improving effect of aminoguanidine on the $5{\times}ECS$ induced impairment of ACR retention may be ascribed in part to its activity as a diamine oxidase inhibitor.

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Applications of Fuzzy Theory on The Location Decision of Logistics Facilities (퍼지이론을 이용한 물류단지 입지 및 규모결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이승재;정창무;이헌주
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2000
  • In existing models in optimization, the crisp data improve has been used in the objective or constraints to derive the optimal solution, Besides, the subjective environments are eliminated because the complex and uncertain circumstances were regarded as Probable ambiguity, In other words those optimal solutions in the existing models could be the complete satisfactory solutions to the objective functions in the Process of application for industrial engineering methods to minimize risks of decision-making. As a result of those, decision-makers in location Problems couldn't face appropriately with the variation of demand as well as other variables and couldn't Provide the chance of wide selection because of the insufficient information. So under the circumstance. it has been to develop the model for the location and size decision problems of logistics facility in the use of the fuzzy theory in the intention of making the most reasonable decision in the Point of subjective view under ambiguous circumstances, in the foundation of the existing decision-making problems which must satisfy the constraints to optimize the objective function in strictly given conditions in this study. Introducing the Process used in this study after the establishment of a general mixed integer Programming(MIP) model based upon the result of existing studies to decide the location and size simultaneously, a fuzzy mixed integer Programming(FMIP) model has been developed in the use of fuzzy theory. And the general linear Programming software, LINDO 6.01 has been used to simulate, to evaluate the developed model with the examples and to judge of the appropriateness and adaptability of the model(FMIP) in the real world.

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Charateristics upon aging period of depanding on distillation method using Saccharomyces cerevisiae 88-4 isolated from traditional Nuruk (전통누룩에서 분리한 효모 88-4로 제조한 술의 증류방법에 따른 숙성기간 중 품질 특성)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Kang, Heui-Yun;Seo, Jae-Soon;Won, Seon-Yi;Kim, Tae-Wan;Kim, Jae-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.407-413
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    • 2018
  • The current study reviews the manufacturing characteristics, upon aging, using different distillation methods with Saccharomyces cerevisiae 88-4 isolated from traditional Nuruk. The alcohol content slightly decreased at 180 days of aging period, under the conditions: -60 cmHg, distilling temperature $50^{\circ}C$, head cut 7%, and body cut 30%. The alcohol content decreased by 2.2% at: -50 cmHg, distilling temperature $60^{\circ}C$, head cut 7%, and body cut 30%. From 2-thiobarbituric acid (TBA) analysis, the TBA values were not found to change significantly in most of the alcohols, but increased at conditions of: -60 cmHg, distilling temperature $60^{\circ}C$, head cut 7%, and body cut 50% and -50 cmHg, distilling temperature $50^{\circ}C$, head cut 7%, and body cut 50%, when initial alcohol levels were low. According to n-propanol, iso-butanol, and isoamyl alcohol analysis, with increasing aging period, the n-propanol and isoamyl alcohol content did not change, although that of iso-butanol decreased. The flavor components showed different results based on the aging period. Results of sensory evaluation showed no significant difference based on aging. The sensory evaluation test was continued for 180 days at a condition of: -60 cmHg, distilling temperature $60^{\circ}C$, and body cut 50%, which had the best overall evaluation ($5.8{\pm}0.9$).

Development of Self-Managed Food Sanitation Check-List and On-Site Monitoring of Food Sanitation Management Practices in Restaurants for Control of Foodborne Illness Risk Factors (식중독 발생 위험요인 관리를 위한 외식업체 자가위생관리점검표 개발 및 현장모니터링)

  • Chung, Min-Jae;Choi, Jung-Hwa;Ryu, Kyung;Kwak, Tong-Kyung
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.603-616
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    • 2010
  • Based on recent dramatic increases in foodborne outbreaks in restaurants, self-managed sanitation systems are now recommended to control contributing risk factors. This study aimed to improve sanitation management practices in restaurants and had two objectives. First, we tried to develop a self-managed sanitation check-list, including risk factors contributing to foodborne illness and Korean food hygiene regulation articles. We also tried to evaluate current sanitation management practices in restaurants according to operation and restaurant type. Thirty restaurants were evaluated by on-the-spot inspectors using an auditing tool consisting of four dimensions, seventeen categories, and forty-one items. Total compliance rate categorized by operation type significantly differed between chain restaurants and self-managed restaurants, with values of 85.5% and 51.6%, respectively. Therefore, self-managed restaurants, which showed the lowest compliance rate of below 30.0%, need more strict control to improve current unsanitary management practices, specifically relating to 'sterilization of knives, chopping boards, and wiping cloths', 'sanitation training', 'not allowing access into the kitchen to outsiders', 'handling of food or utensils on shelves at a 15 cm distance away from floor', 'prevention of cross-contamination of cooked foods or vegetables', and 'records of kitchen access or inspection'. Thus, an effective food sanitation system is essential and should be implemented to improve the existing sanitary conditions in restaurants. However, the most important factor to achieving food sanitation management objectives is food handlers' self-motivation.

Quality and Functional Properties of Red Ginseng Prepared with Different Steaming Time and Drying Methods (원료삼의 증삼 및 건조 조건별 홍삼의 품질 및 기능성)

  • Kim, Kyo-Youn;Shin, Jin-Ki;Lee, Su-Won;Yoon, Sung-Ran;Chung, Hun-Sik;Jeong, Yong-Jin;Choi, Myung-Sook;Lee, Chi-Moo;Moon, Kwang-Deog;Kwon, Joong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.494-499
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    • 2007
  • The quality and functional properties of red ginseng in relation to steaming and drying conditions were evaluated. Fresh ginseng (5-year roots), cultivated in the Punggi region, were steamed for 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 hr, and then dried by hot-air (60-$65^{\circ}C$/24 hr and $40^{\circ}C$,/3-4d) freezing ($-80^{\circ}C$/56 hr), and infrared (900 W/$62^{\circ}C$/68 hr). Hunter#s yellowness (b-value) and browning indexes (420 nm) of the samples were higher in the rootlets than in the main roots. Furthermore, these same index values were found to be high in the order of 3.5, 4.5, and 2.5 hr and infrared, hot-air, and freezing for steaming and subsequent drying, respectively. Analysis of soluble solids, total phenolics, total flavonoids, acidic polysaccharides, and electron donating abilities of the steamed and dried samples showed that 3.5hr of steaming with infrared drying was optimal. However, crude saponin contents were not influenced by steaming and drying conditions. The contents of $ginsenoside-Rg_l$, -Re, -Rf and $-Rb_2$, which were the major components in the samples, were reduced with steaming time, while the amounts of $-Rg_3$ and $-Rh_2$ increased, reaching the highest levels at 3.5 and 4.5 hr in the main roots and rootlets, respectively. The contents of $-Rg_3$ and $-Rh_2$ were similar in both the freeze-dried and hot-air dried samples.

Activity and Survival of the Natural Bacteria under the Stressed Conditions Detected by Bioluminescent Phenotype (스트레스 하의 자연세균의 활성 및 생존의 발광표현형을 이용한 탐지)

  • Park, Kyoung-Je;Yoon, Hye-Young;Chun, Se-Jin;Lee, Ho-Sa;Lee, Dong-Hun;Jahng, Deokjin;Lee, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.154-161
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    • 1998
  • To investigate whether the introduced genetic marker is useful to detect the survivalship and activity of the natural bacteria under the stressed conditions, one Gram-negative isolate, KP964 was transformed to the luminous phenotype by transferring luxAB gene. Under the starvation-stress this luminous bacterial culturability (determined by colony-forming-units [CFU] on agar plate) decreased rapidly below the detection limit by 37 days, while its total cell number (determined by AODC) remained almost the same as its initial inocular size. At that time period, the viable cell number was estimated to be 1400 times higher than its CFU number. The bioiuminescence (determined by relative light units [RLU]) produced under the same condition was also monitored and found to decrease more rapidly than the culturability by 5-fold. Under the other stresses, e.g., osmotic shocks, acid shock, and exposure to toxic chemicals, this bacterial strain did not show the reliable correlation between CFU and RLU. These results might not suggest the direct estimation of bioiuminescence from the stressed bacteria be an index of both the survivalship and its activity. However, when the stressed bacterial cells were incubated under the favorable condition by relieving from the existing stress, the potential bioiuminescence (the lag periods before the increase of bioiuminescence, the increase rates of bioiuminescence, and the maximal levels of bioiuminescence) was shown to be highly dependent upon the strengths of the stresses exposed to the bacterial cells. Therefore, analysis of the potential bioiuminescence from the stressed bacteria revealed good relationships with survival as well as activity.

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