• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.83-92
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• 2022

Due to the uncertainty in the order of the integrated model, the SARIMA-LSTM model, SARIMA-SVR model, LSTM-SARIMA model, and SVR-SARIMA model are constructed respectively to determine the best-combined model for forecasting the China-Russia trade turnover. Meanwhile, the effect of the order of the combined models on the prediction results is analyzed. Using indicators such as MAPE and RMSE, we compare and evaluate the predictive effects of different models. The results show that the SARIMA-LSTM model combines the SARIMA model's short-term forecasting advantage with the LSTM model's long-term forecasting advantage, which has the highest forecast accuracy of all models and can accurately predict the trend of China-Russia trade turnover in the post-epidemic period. Furthermore, the SARIMA - LSTM model has a higher forecast accuracy than the LSTM-ARIMA model. Nevertheless, the SARIMA-SVR model's forecast accuracy is lower than the SVR-SARIMA model's. As a result, the combined models' order has no bearing on the predicting outcomes for the China-Russia trade turnover time series.

• Acta Via Serica
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.55-90
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• 2021

In the last several decades, and especially since the Chinese launching of the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative in 2013, the Chinese presence in Central Asia has intensified. Russia and Chinese leaders deny that there is any conflict of interests between them, while the standard narrative has been that the two states adhere to a functional division of tasks in which China concentrates on economic activity while Russia acts as the security guarantor for the region. This article argues that the professed equanimity between the Russian and Chinese leaderships masks the emergence of widening cracks in their relationship with regard to Central Asia. The convenient narrative of a functional division of tasks between the two states is called into question by China's increasingly active presence in the military and security sector in the region, but China's influence is growing throughout the Central Asian economic, political, and social order. China's movement into Central Asia challenges Russia's claim to act as an equal partner of China, as well as its pretensions to regional hegemony. This development reflects the widening disparity between the two states with respect to their power capabilities but it also exposes the interactions between Russia and China in Central Asia as the most vulnerable aspect of their relationship. In Central Asia, a defensive Russia encounters an ascendant China.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.13-30
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• 2021

The government of Vladimir Putin, which has been ruling Russia for a long period since 2000, has recently strived for the balanced development of underdeveloped regions and sustainable economic growth. Therefore, along with energy development in the Far East and Siberian regions, the government is promoting development projects on logistics and distribution infrastructure. It is also expanding the construction of innovative districts to develop cutting-edge technologies in the outskirts of Moscow. Amid these moves, South Korea is pushing for the New Northern Policy aimed at widening economic cooperation with European and North Asian countries to expand the scope and influence of the country's trade market. The previous year of 2020, marked the 30th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Russia. In this context, this study was initiated to propose various measures for promoting economic cooperation and expanding trade between South Korea and Russia. Therefore, this study examined Russia's political and economic environment and explored its major industrial environment with a focus on the energy industry, innovative districts and infra facility. The study also examined the progress of a FTA between the Eurasian Economic Union, in which Russia currently takes the lead, and South Korea and recommended several measures to upgrade and accelerate economic cooperation between the two countries through research on a range of topics.

• Anayses & Alternatives
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.5-36
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• 2022

The Russia-Ukraine War was a "three-layer compounded war" between the US and Russia, Russia and Ukraine, and Ukrainian government forces and rebels. First, the war is a phenomenon that occurred when the western sphere of influence seeking to maintain and strengthen the liberal international order and the Sino-Russian sphere of influence seeking a new alternative order collided in Ukraine, a geopolitical fault zone. Second, this war is the result of a typical 'security dilemma' phenomenon caused by the 'chain reaction' game of NATO's continuous expansion and Russia's response. Third, the Russia-Ukraine war was caused by the Russian military projection to prevent the military restoration of Donbas region by Ukraine. Until now, the Western world, led by the US, showed unexpected solidarity after the war despite subtle differences in positions. However, the non-Western world, including China, is not participating in the condemnation and sanctions against Russia. This war will be an important turning point in the existence and change of the current international order that has been formed and is operating since the end of the Cold War. The direction of maintenance/restoration, revision/change, and end/transformation of the current international order is highly likely to be determined depending on the development pattern and method of ending the war.

• Anayses & Alternatives
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.44-64
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• 2017

Russia's push in the Asia-Pacific region stems from its interests that have the national, regional and global dimensions. In their turn, the aims of this policy are civilizational, geopolitical, economic and prospective, with a long-term outlook. In the course of their achievement, cooperation with Northeast Asia's countries will play one of the key roles owing to the factors of geographic proximity, Northeast Asia's economic potential, risk hedging and a growing influence Northeast Asia exerts upon the global development. A new cooperation paradigm between Russia and the states of Northeast Asia should be based upon establishing and cementing self-reproducing ties. This is the central aim of Russian initiatives in relations, with Japan, the Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia and China. However, numerous obstacles ranging from Russia's absence in the regional free trade agreements and supply-production chains of value-added production to the permanent international instability generated by Pyongyang's missile-nuclear developments hamper the practical implementation of this task. Realizing the necessity to give an additional impetus to this new cooperative paradigm, Russia has to develop directions with an apparent consolidating effect. The most promising may be the establishment of a permanent security forum based upon Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism chaired by the Russian Federation. The urgency of this measure and its expected support stem from the necessity to strengthen security in Northeast Asia, a task neither the US-led hub-and-spoke system nor ASE-AN-led multilateral dialogue venues have been able to resolve. The issues addressed at the security forum must include the unification of approaches to North Korean nuclear issue and producing a document specifying actions of the claimants on the disputed maritime territories in the "direct contact" situations. At the expert level, Russia has elaborated on the idea to establish such a forum outlining the spectrum of the key directions of cooperation. With the urgency in the establishment of this dialogue venue, its agenda has to be coordinated with the agendas of the existing security systems presented by the US alliances and the ASE-AN-led multilateral negotiations. The practical implementation of this initiative will strengthen security in Northeast Asia as its challenges will be resolved in the pre-emptive way based on coordinated approaches. Therefore, Russia as the Eurasian state will be one of the role players in the advent of the Asian century.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.165-191
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• 2023

The US and EU have imposed energy sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector in response to the Ukraine crisis. One of the key measures is to cut oil and gas imports from Russia. The US and EU are both the senders of sanctions against Russia. However, there is a fundamental difference between them. While the US is the net oil and gas exporter, most EU member states are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. If the US and other major oil and gas exporting countries can replace Russia in the EU energy market, the effectiveness of energy sanctions against Russia can be guaranteed. Our result shows that it is difficult for the major oil and gas exporters to fully replace Russia in the short run because of the lack of additional production capacity and infrastructure. We conclude that the US and EU's energy sanctions against Russia can not guarantee its effectiveness. We argue that other measures, such as diplomacy, should be taken to settle the conflicts in Ukraine.

• Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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• 2000.10b
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• pp.18-19
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• 2000

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.91-98
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• 2011

Korea's aerospace industry tries to achieve the exports goal in 2020, 10 billion dollars, in accordance with the "Future aviation industry development master plan", but it's skill is still not keeping pace. To secure and improve the appropriate technology, it is desperately needed to cooperate with advanced countries or companies of aerospace industry, but they are liked to manage their technology transfer or demand tremendous high price. This study presents that Russia could be a another nation which is able to cooperation on aerospace industry. Although Russia had have superior technology in aerospace industry, they have lost the competitiveness on that field after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, they are trying to regain their original fame in the commercialized way. So, this study suggests practical ways which South Korea and Russia may be helpful each other based on experiences working together.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.209-215
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• 2020

Russia has an interesting history as a donor, recipient and re-emerging donor in international development assistance (IDA). This article introduces the history, policy and challenges of Russian IDA, and provides suggestions for such challenges. The main barrier to Russian IDA is the absence of a central government agency and Russia can learn from other country's experience. Concerning lack of data on the provision of assistance to each sector of IDA and the large number of recipient countries, Russia can learn from Korea particularly in education sector. With respect to building a system ensuring the efficiency of the Russian IDA works, a tool for analysis of the effect of the Russian IDA programmes may be drawn in consultation with international institutions or successful programmes of other donor countries.

• Acta Via Serica
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.23-56
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• 2020

The study of Putin's Russia should be placed in a broad historiographical context, prevailing in the West. While in the beginning of the post-Soviet era, most observers believed that Russia would reach a Fukuyamian "end of history," the situation is quite different now. At present, Western observers see Putin's Russia as the manifestation of authoritarianism. While this assumption is undoubtedly true, it does not provide much insight into the regime's operational model. Here, a comparison with Renaissance and early modern Europe might provide a clue to the operational model of the regime. Similar to early modern European rulers, Putin limits the use of direct and wide use of force, preferring manipulation, corruption, and the targeted killing of his most important enemies. In foreign policy, Putin has tried to avoid wholesale conflicts and broadly uses mercenaries, whose relationships with the Kremlin are downplayed. The similarities between Putin's regime and early modern European regimes do not mean that their destinies will be the same. In Europe, the Renaissance led to centralized states, whereas in Russia, the "Renaissance" could well lead to the country's disintegration.