• 제목/요약/키워드: Robust decision making

검색결과 88건 처리시간 0.025초

크리깅 근사모델을 이용한 강건설계에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Robust Design Using Kriging Surrogate Models)

  • 이권희;조용철;박경진
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.870-875
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    • 2004
  • Current trend of design technologies shows engineers to objectify or automate the given decision-making process. The numerical optimization is an example of such technologies. However, in numerical optimization, the uncertainties are uncontrollable to efficiently objectify or automate the process. To better manage these uncertainties, Taguchi method, reliability-based optimization and robust optimization are being used. To obtain the target performance with the maximum robustness is the main functional requirement of a mechanical system. In this research, the robust design strategy is developed based on the DACE and the global optimization approaches. The DACE modeling, known as the one of Kriging interpolation, is introduced to obtain the surrogate approximation model of the system. The robustness is determined by the DACE model to reduce the real function calculations. The simulated annealing algorithm of global optimization methods is adopted to determine the global robust design of a surrogated model. The mathematical problems and the MEMS design problem are investigated to show the validity of the proposed method.

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기후변화의 비정상성 대비 댐 운영 개선을 위한 Robust-SDP의 개발 (Development of Robust-SDP for improving dam operation to cope with non-stationarity of climate change)

  • 윤해나;서승범;김영오
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제51권spc1호
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    • pp.1135-1148
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    • 2018
  • 기존의 저수지 운영 연구들은 미래의 기후가 과거와 유사하다는 정상성의 가정을 전제로 하였다. 하지만 기후의 비정상성으로 인해 불확실성이 더욱 커질 경우에는 큰 불확실성에서도 안정된 최적해를 찾을 수 있는 로버스트 최적화 과정(Robust Optimization, 이하 RO)이 필요하다고 알려져 있다. RO는 입력자료의 비정상성으로 인해 야기되는 불확실성을 제어하는 로버스트 항을 목적함수에 추가하여 기존의 최적화 방법을 개선한다. 본 연구는 기후변화의 비정상성을 대비하는 저수지 운영규칙 산정을 위해 추계학적동적계획법(Stochastic Dynamic Programing, 이하 SDP)과 RO를 결합하는 Robust-SDP를 제안하였고, 이를 최근 4년간 가뭄을 겪었던 보령댐에 적용하였다. 즉, 비정상성이 반영된 미래 유입량 자료를 생성하고 이를 6가지의 평가지표와 2가지의 의사결정 지원그림을 사용하여 과거 유입량 자료로부터 산출된 저수지 운영규칙의 수행능력을 평가하였다. 그 결과, Robust-SDP가 기후의 비정상성 하에서 극단적인 물 부족 사건의 발생률과 물 부족 사건의 실패의 크기를 감소시켰지만, 작은 크기의 물 부족 발생률은 증가하는 상충관계(trade-off)를 가져옴을 확인할 수 있었다. 이를 바탕으로 의사결정자가 우선시하는 평가지표의 결과에 따라 최적화 모형을 선택할 수 있음을 제안하였다.

다구찌 방법을 이용한 $\beta$-carotene 대량생산의 최적환경 조건 결정 (The Optimal Parameter Decision of$\beta$ carotene Mass Production Using Taguchi Method)

  • 조용욱;박명규
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2000
  • The Robust Design method uses a mathematical tool called orthogonal arrays to study a large number of decision variables with a small number of experiments. It also uses a new measure of quality, called signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio, to predict the quality from the customer's perspective. Thus, the most economical product and process design from both manufacturing and customers' viewpoints can be accomplished at the smallest, affordable development cost. Many companies, big and small, high-tech and low-tech, have found the Robust Design method valuable in making high-quality products available to customers at a low competitive price while still maintaining an acceptable profit margin. A study to analyze and solve problems of a biochemical process experiment has presented in this paper. We have taken Taguchi's parameter design approach, specifically orthogonal array, and determined the optimal levels of the selected variables through analysis of the experimental results using S/N ratio.

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특징공간을 사선 분할하는 퍼지 결정트리 유도 (Fuaay Decision Tree Induction to Obliquely Partitioning a Feature Space)

  • 이우향;이건명
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.156-166
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    • 2002
  • 결정트리 생성은 특징값들로 기술된 사례들로부터 분류 규칙을 추출하는 유용한 기계학습 방법중 하나이다. 결정트리는 특징공간을 분할하는 형태에 따라 단변수(univariate) 결정트리와 다변수(multivariate) 결정트리로 대별된다. 실제 현장에서 얻어지는 데이터는 관측오류, 불확실성, 주관적인 판단 등의 이유로 특징값 자체에 오류를 포함하는 경우가 많다. 이러한 오류에 대해 강건한 결정트리를 생성하기 위한 방법으로 퍼지 기법을 도입한 결정트리 생성 방법에 대한 연구가 진행되어 왔다. 현재까지 대부분의 퍼지 결정트리에 대한 연구는 단변수 결정트리에 퍼지 기법을 도입한 것들이며, 다변수 결정트리에 퍼지 기법을 적용한 것은 찾아보기 힘들다. 이 논문에서는 다변수 결정트리에 퍼지 기법을 적용하여 퍼지사선형 결정트리라고 하는 퍼지 결정트리를 생성하는 방법을 제안한다. 또한 제안한 결정트리 생성 방법의 특성을 보이기 위한 실험 결과를 보인다.

크리깅 근사모델을 이용한 전역적 강건최적설계 (A Global Robust Optimization Using the Kriging Based Approximation Model)

  • 박경진;이권희
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제29권9호
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    • pp.1243-1252
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    • 2005
  • A current trend of design methodologies is to make engineers objectify or automate the decision-making process. Numerical optimization is an example of such technologies. However, in numerical optimization, the uncertainties are uncontrollable to efficiently objectify or automate the process. To better manage these uncertainties, the Taguchi method, reliability-based optimization and robust optimization are being used. To obtain the target performance with the maximum robustness is the main functional requirement of a mechanical system. In this research, a design procedure for global robust optimization is developed based on the kriging and global optimization approaches. The DACE modeling, known as the one of Kriging interpolation, is introduced to obtain the surrogate approximation model of the function. Robustness is determined by the DACE model to reduce real function calculations. The simulated annealing algorithm of global optimization methods is adopted to determine the global robust design of a surrogated model. As the postprocess, the first order second-moment approximation method is applied to refine the robust optimum. The mathematical problems and the MEMS design problem are investigated to show the validity of the proposed method.

면역알고리즘 기반의 MECs (에너지 허브) 시스템 (An Immune Algorithm based Multiple Energy Carriers System)

  • 손병락;강유경;이현
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2014
  • Recently, in power system studies, Multiple Energy Carriers (MECs) such as Energy Hub has been broadly utilized in power system planners and operators. Particularly, Energy Hub performs one of the most important role as the intermediate in implementing the MECs. However, it still needs to be put under examination in both modeling and operating concerns. For instance, a probabilistic optimization model is treated by a robust global optimization technique such as multi-agent genetic algorithm (MAGA) which can support the online economic dispatch of MECs. MAGA also reduces the inevitable uncertainty caused by the integration of selected input energy carriers. However, MAGA only considers current state of the integration of selected input energy carriers in conjunctive with the condition of smart grid environments for decision making in Energy Hub. Thus, in this paper, we propose an immune algorithm based Multiple Energy Carriers System which can adopt the learning process in order to make a self decision making in Energy Hub. In particular, the proposed immune algorithm considers the previous state, the current state, and the future state of the selected input energy carriers in order to predict the next decision making of Energy Hub based on the probabilistic optimization model. The below figure shows the proposed immune algorithm based Multiple Energy Carriers System. Finally, we will compare the online economic dispatch of MECs of two algorithms such as MAGA and immune algorithm based MECs by using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS).

시나리오 모델을 활용한 수요 및 가격 불확실성이 존재하는 TFT-LCD 산업에서의 Robust 생산 및 수송계획 (Robust production and transportation planning for TFT-LCD industry under demand and price uncertainties using scenario model)

  • 신현준;유재필
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제11권9호
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    • pp.3304-3310
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    • 2010
  • 연구는 가격 및 수요 불확실성하의 강건한 (robust) 생산 및 수송 전략을 수립함으로써 수요 및 가격 불확실성이 존재하는 TFT-LCD 제조업 공급사슬망의 의사결정 문제를 해결하고자 한다. 품질로 구분되는 제품들의 생산, 재고 및 물류에 관한 의사결정을 조정하기 위해, 본 연구에서는 생산용량 제약, 해상/항공 수송 리드타임 및 용량 제약 등의 현실적인 제약조건들을 반영하는 확정적 모델을 정의하고, 시나리오 모델을 이용하여 수요 및 가격 불확실성을 함께 반영하는 확률적 혼합정수선형계획법모형들을 개발한다. 또한 개발된 확률적 모형들의 robust 솔루션을 도출하기 위한 휴리스틱 알고리즘을 제안한다. 그리고 이들 모형들로부터 산출된 솔루션의 성능을 실험을 통하여 다양한 시나리오 하에서 평가하도록 한다.

2속성 강건 설계를 이용한 박판성형공정의 최적화 (Optimization of Sheet Metal Forming Process Based on Two-Attribute Robust Design Methodology)

  • 김경모;인정제;박종천
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2014
  • Fractures and wrinkles are two major defects frequently found in the sheet metal forming process. The process has several noise factors that cannot be ignored when determining the optimal process conditions. Therefore, without any countermeasures against noise, attempts to reduce defects through optimal design methods have often led to failure. In this study, a new and robust design methodology that can reduce the possibility of formation of fractures and wrinkles is presented using decision-making theory. A two-attribute value function is presented to form the design metric for the sheet metal forming process. A modified complex method is adopted to isolate the optimal robust design variables. One of the major limitations of the traditional robust design methodology, which is based on an orthogonal array experiment, is that the values of the optimal design variables have to coincide with one of the experimental levels. As this restriction is eliminated in the complex method, a better solution can be expected. The procedure of the proposed method is illustrated through a robust design of the sheet metal forming process of a side member of an automobile body.

연성 시스템의 강건설계 방법 (Robust Design Methodology of a Coupled System)

  • 이권희;박경진;주원식
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2003년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.1763-1768
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    • 2003
  • Current trend of design technologies shows engineers to objectify or automate the given decision-making process. The numerical optimization is an example of such technologies. However, in numerical optimization, the uncertainties are uncontrollable to efficiently objectify or automate the process. To better manage these uncertainties, Taguchi method, reliability-based optimization and robust optimization are being used. Based on the independence axiom of axiomatic design theory that illustrates the relationship between desired specifications and design parameters, the designs can be classified into three types: uncoupled, decoupled and coupled. To best approach the target performance with the maximum robustness is one of the main functional requirements of a mechanical system. Most engineering designs are pertaining to either coupled or decoupled ones, but these designs cannot currently accomplish a real robustness thus a trade-off between performance and robustness has to be made. In this research, the game theory will be applied to optimize the trade-off.

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Perturbation analysis for robust damage detection with application to multifunctional aircraft structures

  • Hajrya, Rafik;Mechbal, Nazih
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.435-457
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    • 2015
  • The most widely known form of multifunctional aircraft structure is smart structures for structural health monitoring (SHM). The aim is to provide automated systems whose purposes are to identify and to characterize possible damage within structures by using a network of actuators and sensors. Unfortunately, environmental and operational variability render many of the proposed damage detection methods difficult to successfully be applied. In this paper, an original robust damage detection approach using output-only vibration data is proposed. It is based on independent component analysis and matrix perturbation analysis, where an analytical threshold is proposed to get rid of statistical assumptions usually performed in damage detection approach. The effectiveness of the proposed SHM method is demonstrated numerically using finite element simulations and experimentally through a conformal load-bearing antenna structure and composite plates instrumented with piezoelectric ceramic materials.