• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.551-562
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• 2008

Option pricing model in finance has been applied to price non-financial options, called real options. The real option valuation method is ideally suited to irreversible decision making under uncertainty, including the need to determine the optimal time to act and even change between alternative courses of action as information is collected. Therefore, the real option valuation method is expected to provide a superior and less subjective approach to determining optimal strategies for water resources supply projects, which have been reported to have huge risks due to uncertainties, and investors and policy makers need to build an optimal strategy - when and if to invest - with uncertainties and managerial flexibilities considered.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.3D
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• pp.295-302
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• 2010

Since the late 1990s, the BOT mode in China has been extensively used in the water sector in order to attract private investment, improve technical and operational efficiency, and expand the coverage of water services. The BOT mode has been hailed as this provides a win-win structure between the government and private players through formalized procedures and an optimal risk allocation. However, recent market analyses show that some foreign investors are reluctant to participate in the market or even retreat due to uncertainties and risks in the market. This study aims to explore various risks in the Chinese water BOT market based on the thorough literature review, fieldwork, and the case studies on the two wholly foreign-owned BOT water projects: the Chengdu No. 6 and the Shanghai Dachang Water Supply BOT projects. The research results indicate that the Chinese BOT market embraces high risks in political, institutional and legal, and financial systems. The key to a successful takeoff of the BOT mode in the Chinese water market depends on the extent to which the government will be able to remove risky factors in political, institutional and legal, and financing systems. This research outcome will provide a useful reference to the Korean construction companies which consider expanding business to overseas water markets in the form of public private partnership.

• Architectural research
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.75-80
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• 2014

Risks, uncertainties, and associated cost overruns are critical problems for construction projects. Cost contingency is an important funding source for these unforeseen events and is included in the base estimate to help perform financially successful projects. In order to predict more accurate contingency, many empirical models using regression analysis and artificial neural network method have been proposed and showed its viability to minimize prediction errors. However, categorical factors on contingency cannot have been treated and thus considered in these empirical models since those models are able to treat only numerical factors. This paper identified potential factors on contingency in transportation construction projects and evaluated categorical factors using the one-way ANOVA statistical method. Among factors including project work type, delivery method type, contract agreement type, bid award type, letting type, and geographical location, two factors of project work type and contract agreement type were found to be statistically important on allocating cost contingency.

• Architectural research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.37-45
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• 2006

A fungal spore transportation model that accounts for the concentration of airborne indoor spores and the amount of spores deposited on interior surfaces has been developed by extending the current aerosol model. This model is intended to be used for a building with a mechanical ventilation system, and considers HVAC filter efficiency and ventilation rate. The model also includes a surface-cleaning efficiency and frequency that removes a portion of spores deposited on surfaces. The developed model predicts indoor fungal spore concentration and provides an indoor/outdoor ratio that may increase or decrease mold growth risks in real, in-use building cases. To get a more useful outcome from the model simulation, an uncertainty analysis has been conducted in a real building case. By including uncertainties associated with the parameters in the spore transportation model, the simulation results provide probable ranges of indoor concentration and indoor/outdoor ratio. This paper describes the uncertainty quantification of each parameter that is specific to fungal spores, and uncertainty propagation using an appropriate statistical technique. The outcome of the uncertainty analysis showed an agreement with the results from the field measurement with air sampling in a real building.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.47-79
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• 2008

RFID(Radio Frequency Identification) technologies enjoy an enormous interest in all throughout the world, not only from the research but also from corporate practice. Although bar code is gradually substituted with RFID technology, the use of RFID technology in the companies is at the early stages and it's potential value isn't fully realized yet. RFID-related-trust is needed to solve these problems because these phenomena are related to uncertainties or risks disturbing RFID diffusion. This paper focuses on trust in the adoption of RFID and analyzes the effect to RFID technology acceptance of trust. This paper proposes 5 second constructs of trust; institutional trust, trust between companies, trust within company, technology trust, and service provider trust. In order to analyze some relationships between trust variable and 4 variables in TAM, structural equation modeling(SEM) is developed and SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 7.0 are used for analyses.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.94-115
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic value of a biotechnology in the middle of R&D and to examine strategies to manage a variety of risks and uncertainties intrinsic in research and development of biotechnologies through economic valuation in consideration of technological and industrial characteristics of the technology. To do this, this study analyzes the probability of commercial success of the technology development in qualitative terms, evaluates the quantitative value of the technology on the basis of a determined model, and proposes the implications on R&D strategy. In concrete, this study analyzes the economic value of the technology by constructing a decision tree reflecting the characteristics of the R&D process of the technology and draw the implications on the future R&D strategies of the technology.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.9-9
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• 2000

For the planning of future land use for economic activities, an essential component is the identification of the vulnerable areas for natural hazard and environmental impacts from the activities. Also, exploration for mineral and energy resources is carried out by a step by step approach. At each step, a selection of the target area for the next exploration strategy is made based on all the data harnessed from the previous steps. The uncertainty of the selected target area containing undiscovered resources is a critical factor for estimating the exploration risk. We have developed not only spatial prediction models based on adapted artificial intelligence techniques to predict target and vulnerable areas but also validation techniques to estimate the uncertainties associated with the predictions. The prediction models will assist the scientists and decision-makers to make two critical decisions: (i) of the selections of the target or vulnerable areas, and (ii) of estimating the risks associated with the selections.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.51-63
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• 1996

In this paper, we develop two replacement-type reliability acceptance sampling plans(RASPs) for the gamma lifetime distribution assuming that the shape parameter is known. The two plans are respectively based upon failure-free period and hybrid life tests. We then compare the plans in terms of expected test time to reach a decision, power, etc. Computational results indicate among others that the failure-free period RASP has a shorter expected completion time than the corresponding hybrid RASP when the true scale parameter is 'large'. Finally, sensitivity analyses reveal that the effects of the uncertainties involved in the assumed shape parameter on the producer and the consumer risks are in favorable directions for both parties for both types of plans.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.267-273
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.357-360
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• 2007

Any investment analysis has to deal with the uncertainty that arises over the course of operating the invested project. When it comes to an wind power, such analysis gets even more complicated, as the wind resource or the current is inherently unstable and unpredictable. Different from predecessors in the field of analyzing wind power economics, this paper proposes a stochastic methodology of analyzing the economic efficiency of an investment in wind power to explicitly address those uncertainties or risks. A probability distribution is assigned to each variable to generate a probability distribution of the economic value of an investment through a Monte-Carlo simulation