• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-sensitive

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A Sensitivity Analysis for Risk Management of Private Investment Projects - Focused on BTL Projects - (민자유치사업의 리스크 관리를 위한 민감요인 분석 - BTL 사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Sun-Kuk;Park, Tong-Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.1 s.29
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2006
  • Since the partly changed 'Private Investment Act for Social Infrastructure Projects' set forth in January 2005, the number of BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects offered to the market has rapidly increased. The scope of BTL projects offered covers not only legally defined facilities but several facilities for the private schools. A BTL project, by definition, is a way of project management that includes the entire process of development such as planning, design, construction and operation over the period of 20-30 years. As a result, various types of risk may happen at each stage of the project and it is extremely important to efficiently control the sensitive factors that affect the risk profiles of the project. The examples of the sensitive factors are construction cost, interest rate, discount rate, lease amount, rental fee, O&M cost and so on. This study examines the characteristics of these sensitivity factors, analyzes their impact on the project feasibility and suggests the alternatives to manage them efficiently.

Knowledge sharing under perceived risk: Altruistic or goal-oriented motives? (위험 지각에 따른 지식공유: 이타적인 행동인가, 속셈이 있는 행동인가?)

  • Kim, Hayeon;Kang, Dae-seok;Won, So Jung
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.35-56
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    • 2014
  • This study examined the effect of perceived risk, an under-explored area in the knowledge sharing literature. We proposed that employee perceptions of risk relate positively with their knowledge sharing behaviors (donating and collecting), and examined the mediating role of impression management strategies in the hypothesized relationships. We also explored the moderating effect of leader-member exchange (LMX) in the relationship between perceived risk and impression management strategies. Valid and reliable self-report and supervisory evaluation measures were collected from a sample of 251 railroad employees in safety-sensitive positions. The results indicate that perceived risk was not significantly associated with knowledge sharing, but rather the risk perception impacts were indirect through impression management strategies such as exemplification and supplication. The study also found that LMX has no moderating effect on the perceived risk and impression management strategies. In discussing these results, we present significant insights in terms of subjective risk judgment as a potential mechanism which can encourage organizational politics.

Foreign Exchange Risk Premia and Goods Market Frictions

  • Moon, Seongman
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.3-38
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    • 2015
  • Fama's (1984) volatility relations show that the risk premium in foreign exchange markets is more volatile than, and is negatively correlated with the expected rate of depreciation. This paper studies these relations from the perspective of goods markets frictions. Using a sticky-price general equilibrium model, we show that near-random walk behaviors of both exchange rates and consumption, in response to monetary shocks, can be derived endogenously. Based on this approach, the paper provides quantitative results on Fama's volatility relations.

A Study on the Pollution Risk Assessment of Oil Spill Accidents (해양유류오염사고 위해도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Moon-Jin;Kim, Hye-Jin
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.24-30
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to establish an assessment method for the estimation of the pollution risk by oil spill accidents. Various oil spill patterns were calculated based on past accidents in the study area and these results were analyzed statistically. Then the risk probability, the oil arrival time, risk range, and so on were calculated. These calculations were performed for sub area sectors, fisheries and aquaculture farms, based on information about environmentally sensitive resources. Finally, the risk to each sub area sector was assessed by comparing the calculated results. These consequences indicated the objective and general risks of oil spill accidents and the result of this method will be made more appropriate by integrating real time risk predictions.

A Study on the Method of the Risk Management in the Housing Project (주택사업의 리스크 원인분석 및 대응방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong kyu;Lee, Ju Hyung
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2008
  • A housing project is very sensitive the changing environment. Therefor, a housing project is the high risk. Therefor in order to be succeed the project it becomes necessary to effectively manage the risk involved in the process of the housing project. This study analysed the risk factors that involved in the process of the housing project as compared with the precede research. The results of this research are as follows : First, complete feasibility study and verification with conviction in market and environment are required. And, securing organization and specificity for simulation and variation of environment are required in the process by step. And then, complaint and flaw are required in the final stage. The results of this study can be used as the guideline to make the risk management system for the housing project.

Estimation of the Relative Risk of the Elderly with Different Evacuation Velocity in a Toxic Gas Leakage Accident (독성물질 누출 시 대피 속도 차이에 따른 고령자의 상대적 위험도 산정)

  • Lee, H.T.;Kwak, J.;Park, J.;Ryu, J.;Lee, J.;Jung, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2019
  • Leakage accidents in businesses dealing with hazardous chemicals can have a great impact on the workers inside the workplace, as well as residents outside the workplace. In fact, there were cases where hazardous chemicals leaked from many businesses. As a result, the Chemicals Control Act(CCA) was enacted in 2015, the Ministry of Environment introduced an Off-site Risk Assessment(ORA). The purpose of the ORA is to secure safety from the installation of the design of the workplace facilities so that chemical accidents of hazardous chemical handling facilities do not cause human or physical damage outside the workplace. In general, the ORA qualitatively determines where a protected facility is within the scope of the accident scenario. However, elderly who belong to the sensitive group is more sensitive than the general group under the same chemical accident effect, and the extent of the damage is serious. According to data from the Korea National Statistic Office, the number of elderly people is expected to increase steadily. Therefore, a quantitative risk analysis considering the elderly is necessary as a result of a chemical accident. In this study, accident scenarios for 14 locations were set up to perform emergency evacuation due to toxic gas leakage of Cl2(Chlorine) and HF(Hydrogen Fluoride), and the effects of exposure were analyzed based on the evacuation velocity difference of age 20s and 60s. The ALOHA(Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) program was used to calculate the concentration for assessing the effects. The time of exposure to toxic gas was calculated based on the time it took for the evacuation to run from the start point to the desired point and a methodology was devised that could be applied to the risk calculation. As a result of the study, the relative risk of the elderly, the sensitive group, needs to be determined.

Performance analysis of satellite maneuver and structure control using risk-sensitive control (위성 운동과 건물 진동제어에 활용된 리스크 센서티브 제어기의 성능 분석)

  • Won, Chang-Hui
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.219-226
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    • 1997
  • 지구를 원궤도로 돌고 있는 위성 운동과 지진에 흔들리는 건물 진동을 선형 확률적 미분 방정식으로 나타내고 최적화 제어를 위하여 리스크 센서티브 제어기를 사용한다. 리스크 센서티브 파라미터에 따라서 코스트 함수의 평균과 분산이 변하게 된다. 이 파라미터가 무한히 커지면 리스크 센서티브 제어기는 기존의 LQG 제어기와 같아지므로 리스크 샌서티브 제어이론은 LQG 제어 이론을 포함한 종합적인 이론이다. 이 논문에서는 리스크 센서티브 이론을 소개하고, 리스크 센서티브 제어 방식의 성능 측정및 평가 방법을 도출하기 위하여 공분산을 이용하면 리스크 센서티브 제어기는 기존의 LQG 제어기 보다 우수한 성능을 나타낸다는 것을 보여준다. 시뮬레이션을 통하여 위성의 자세및 궤도 운동 제어와 건물 진동 제어에 활용된 리스크 센서티브 제어기의 향상된 성능과 안정성을 보여준다.

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A Study on the Use of Display and Perceived Risk according to High School Girls′ Attitudes Toward Fashion (여고생의 유행태도에 따른 의복구매시의 디스플레이 활용도와 인지위험)

  • 황춘섭;박지영
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of the present study was to investigate the use level of display and perceived risk of high school girls according to their attitudes toward fashion. Data were collected through self-administered questionnaires and analyzed by descriptive statistics, $x^2$, ANOVA, and Duncan test. The sample consisted of 390 students at four girls' high schools located in Seoul. The results are as follows : 1. Based on the attitudes toward fashion, respondents were classified into 3 groups, fashion-oriented, fashion-conformed, fashion-retarded. No differences were found in fashion attitudes among and between the groups by residing place. The group having higher interest in fashion spent more expenditure for apparels, and showed the higher interest in display, and highly regarded the needs of display. 2. The more fashion-oriented group showed higher degree of risk perceiving. Especially, they perceived psychological risk, fashionability risk, and social risk highly. And all the three groups perceived opportunity risk most. 3. In general, those who are more sensitive to fashion showed more positive attitude of risk reduction activities.

Assessment of the Risk of Exposure to Chemical Carcinogens

  • Purchase, Iain F.H.
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.17
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    • pp.41-45
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    • 2001
  • The methods used for risk assessment from exposure to chemicals are well established. in most cases where toxicity other than carcinogenesis is being considered, the standard method relies on establishing the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) in the most sensitive animal toxicity study and using an appropriate safety factor (SF) to determine the exposure which would be associated with an acceptable risk. For carcinogens a different approach is used because it has been argued there is no threshold of effect. Thus mathematical equations are used to extrapolate from the high doses used in ani-mal experiments. These methods have been strongly criticised in recent years on several grounds. The most cogent criticisms are a) the equations are not based on a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis and b) the outcome of a risk assessment based on such models varies more as a consequence of changes to the assumptions and equation used than it does from the data derived from carcinogenicity experiments. Other criticisms include the absence of any measure of the variance on the risk assessment and the selection of default values that are very conservative. Recent advances in the application of risk assessment emphasise that measures of both the exposure and the hazard should be considered as a distribution of values. The outcome of such a risk assessment provides an estimate of the distribution of the risks.

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An Application of Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment for An Incineration Facility (소각설비에 대한 확률론적 환경위험성 평가 적용)

  • Kim, Young Jae;Jang, E.J.;Ahn, K.S.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • A wide spectrum of risk assessments including qualitative and quantitative approaches and the analyses of its consequence were performed for an environmentally sensitive object such as incineration facility. To find out the major risk concerns, HAZOP(Hazard and Operability) were performed. Then, the frequency of hazardous gas release scenarios was calculated. Finally consequence analyses were performed for the gas release scenarios. On the basis of analyses through evaluation, a more innovative way for making a better control system or the enhancement of operation procedure was given. The results from these analyses would act as a substantial benefits for the incineration facility operator, and giving some measured information for the neighbors and the people involved.