• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based frequency analysis

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The Assessment of the Risk Index of Live-line Works on Distribution Line by the Accident Analysis (재해분석을 통한 배전선로 활선작업 공종별 위험지수 평가)

  • Choi, Seung-Dong;Hyun, So-Young;Han, Hyeong-Ju;Shin, Woon-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.8-14
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    • 2011
  • The live-line works are very dangerous because of direct contacts with the distribution line or neighboring contacts. So the purpose of this study is to identify the risk factor by accident occurrence form and accident case analysis, and to suggest the quantified risk index by risk occurrence frequency and risk strength analysis. And the risk index assessment is researched by accident cases analysis on work type. Accident cases of transmission distribution line are researched based on data of the Ministry of Employment and Labor in the last ten-year period (2000~2009). In results of this paper, high risk isn't always a priority of safety measures. Risk occurrence frequency and risk strength have to be considered according to detail work types, work methods and conditions of field work. And safety management measures must be planned according to risk occurrence frequency and risk strength.

Risk Analysis Based on Accident-Category for Railway Work Zones (철도건설현장의 사고유형기반 위험도 분석)

  • Park, Mi-Yun;Choi, Eun-Soo;Park, Joo-Nam;Choi, Seung-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2009
  • The theory of risk is applied frequently in analysis of railway accidents. The aim of risk analysis is to search potential causes and contribution factors of accidents by checking the total system of construction field. This paper analyze a pattern and a cause of accident occupied in construction field, calculate risk index considering accident frequency and severity, and then provide the relative risk assessment. Based on this, this paper will provide the methodology of qualitative risk assessment guiding to reach a consistency of risk index with risk assessment.

Risk Assessment of Industrial Machines and Devices and Appropriateness of Their Safety Certification and Self-Declaration of Conformity (위험기계, 기구의 위험성 평가 및 안전인증 또는 자율안전확인의 적정성)

  • Choi, Gi Heung;Loh, Byoung Gook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2016
  • Severity and frequency of industrial accidents are typically used to assess the "absolute" risk associated with the industrial machines and devices ("items") which are subject to safety certification or self-declaration of conformity. However, the "relative" risk associated with a particular item can further be assessed based on unit severity and unit frequency where the total number of item in use is taken into account. This study first attempts to estimate the total number of each item in use which was recently selected for safety certification or self-declaration of conformity. The appropriateness of such selection is recapitulated based on the relative risk involved. Analysis results indicate that depending on items, the relative risk is differentiated from the absolute risk. Recent selection of items for safety certification or self-declaration of conformity is then revisited for its validity. The relative risk based on unit severity and unit frequency of industrial accidents, together with the absolute risk, may be used to further categorize items for safety certification or self-declaration of conformity in the future.

The Influence of Consumers' Purchase Experience and Technology Readiness on Risk Perception and Satisfaction in Internet Clothing Shopping (소비자의 인터넷쇼핑 구매경험과 기술준비성이 인터넷 의류쇼핑시 위험지각과 만족도에 미치는 영향)

  • Hong, Keum-Hee
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study is to examine consumers' risk perception in internet clothing shopping and its relation with technology readiness and the frequency of purchase. Thereafter, this study examines how consumers' risk perception affect service quality and satisfaction at the apparel shopping sites. An on-line survey was made to collect data, and the replies from 785 people, who had an experience of apparel shopping on line, were used in data analysis. From factor analyses, risk perception comprised 3 factors of product related risk, delivery related risk, and security related risk, and technology readiness comprised 4 factors of optimism, innovativeness, discomfort, and insecurity. Based on cluster analysis, consumers were classified into 3 types in terms of the internet risk perception: low risk group, medium risk group, and high risk group. From path analysis, risk perception was decreased with high frequency of purchase and low discomfort and insecurity of technology readiness, and risk perception and service quality had an influence on consumers' satisfaction with the shopping sites.

An Evaluation of the Quantitative Risk of Plastic Process Manufacturing Industries by Means of the 4M Method

  • Lee, Dong-Ho;Kim, Jong-In
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.8-12
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    • 2007
  • This study includes a case study among plastic process manufacturing companies, based on which, the currently used 4M method is applied in terms of machine, media, man, and management, to conduct quantitative risk evaluation, and thus to contribute to reducing human and material loss as well as preventing accidents in industrial fields. The result of this study is analyzed based on the 4M-risk assessment to find out the hazardous risk elements, and the quantitative evaluation made it predictable the value of risk(frequency $\times$ intensity) in such classified levels as serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk. Further, Among the businesses with hazardous risk elements and high frequency of industrial disaster, risk analysis was conducted for each process, and as a result, 38 cases among 76, including those of serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk, were improved, and the risk was reduced. Besides, it is thought that with the engineering approach with 4M-Risk Assessment, the attempt to improve safety level contributes to prevention of accidents.

Development of Risk-Appearance Frequency Evaluation Model for Railway Level-Crossing Accidents (철도건널목 사고 위험도-발생빈도 평가모델 개발)

  • Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Park, Chan-Woo;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.96-101
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

Uncertainty Analysis for Parameter Estimation of Probability Distribution in Rainfall Frequency Analysis Using Bootstrap (강우빈도해석에서 Bootstrap을 이용한 확률분포의 매개변수 추정에 대한 불확실성 해석)

  • Seo, Young-Min;Park, Ki-Bum
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.321-327
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    • 2011
  • Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.

Analysis of Safety of the Chemical Facilities by Korea Risk Based-Inspection in the Petrochemical Plant (석유화학공장에서의 한국형 위험기반검사에 의한 화학설비의 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Ok;Lee, Hern-Chang;Shin, Pyng-Sik;Choi, Byung-Nam;Jo, Ji-Hoon;Choi, Byung-Young;Park, Sung-Hoo;Kim, Hung-Kun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2007
  • As a way of improving the safety of the chemical facilities, the risk based-inspection(RBI) was executed for the facilities of the applied petrochemical plant using KS-RBI Ver. 3.0 program developed based on the API-581 based resource document(BRD). From an evaluation result of KS-RBI program, we could find the evaluation of the process safety management(PSM) for the applied plant, risk of the applied process, risk of static facilities and pipes, and the demage mechanism of the facilities. Also, we could suggest a proper inspection plan(frequency and method of inspection) using the calculated risk and the status of the facilities. Therefore, the applied plant could be achieved a reduced inspection cost by an extension of inspection frequency, improved productivity, improved reliability of the facilities, and a computerized history management.

Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Hydrologic Extreme Variables Considering of Seasonality and Trend (계절성과 경향성을 고려한 극치수문자료의 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ju;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.581-585
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    • 2010
  • This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend seasonal analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel and GEV extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both trend and seasonal analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. In addition, full annual cycle of the design rainfall through seasonal model could be applied to annual control such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

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Design Strength of Bridges against Ship Collision according to Vessel Traffic (선박통행량에 따른 교량의 선박충돌 설계강도)

  • Lee Seong-Lo;Lee Byung-Hwa;Kang Sung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.663-666
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    • 2004
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. AF is computed for each bridge component and vessel classification. The summation of AFs computed over all of the vessel classification intervals for a specific component should equal the annual frequency of collapse of the component. The designer should use judgment in developing a distribution of the vessel frequency data based on discrete groupings or categories of vessel size by DWT. In the present study the effect of vessel classification on the annual frequency of collapse in the ship collision risk assessment is investigated by illustrative numerical examples based on the vessel frequency data of the domestic harbor. The DWT interval for larger vessels has more effect on the ship collision risk. Therefore the expert judgement in determining the larger DWT interval is required because the design impact lateral resistances of bridge components depend on the ship collision risk.

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