• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based assessment

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Two Models to Assess Fuzzy Risk of Natural Disaster in China

  • Chongfu, Huang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 1997
  • China is one of the few countries where natural disaster strike frequently and cause heavy damage. In this paper, we mathematically develop two models to assess fuzzy risk of natural disaster in China. One is to assess the risk based on database of historical disaster effects by using information diffusion method relevant in fuzzy information analysis. In another model, we give an overview over advanced method to calculate the risk of release, exposure and consequence assessent, where information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing historical experience of natural disasters, and fuzzy approximate inference is employed to study loss risk based on these basic relationships. We also present an examples to show how to use the first model. Result show that the model is effective for natural disaster risk assessment.

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Effect of Bisphenol A on Early Embryonic Development and the Expression of Glutathione S-transferase (GST) in the Sea Urchin (Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus) (말똥성게(Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus)의 초기배아 발생과 glutathione S-transferase (GST)의 발현에 대한 bisphenol A의 영향)

  • Hwang, Un-Ki;Kim, Dae-Han;Ryu, Hyang-Mi;Lee, Ju-Wook;Park, Seung-Yoon;Kang, Han Seung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.234-242
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    • 2014
  • In this study, gametotoxicity and embryotoxicity experiments using Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus were carried out to investigate the ecotoxicological effects of bisphenol A (BPA). We examined the effects of BPA on fertilization and normal embryogenesis at various concentrations (0, 300, 500, 800, 1000, and 1500 ppb). The results demonstrated that the fertilization rates were not changed. The normal embryogenesis rates were gradually decreased in a dose-dependent manner, and were significantly lowered following 800 ppb BPA treatment ($EC_{50}$=1056.1 ppb, 95% Cl=981.8~1163.9 ppb). The observed effective concentration and the lowest observed effective concentration of the normal embryogenesis rate were 500 ppb and 800 ppb, respectively. The embryos showed retarded development at each tested concentration, indicating the fact the embryonic development was delayed due to the increasing concentrations of BPA. Furthermore, we examined the expression of glutathione S-transferase (GST) mRNA at various concentrations of BPA in H. pulcherrimus. Interestingly, it was found that the expression level of GST mRNA was significantly increased in the experimental group exposed to BPA. Based on these results, we suggested that BPA at greater than 800 ppb has a toxic effect during the early embryonic stages of H. pulcherrimus, and GST mRNA may be used as a biomarker for risk assessment of BPA contamination.

AN OVERVIEW OF RISK QUANTIFICATION ISSUES FOR DIGITALIZED NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS USING A STATIC FAULT TREE

  • Kang, Hyun-Gook;Kim, Man-Cheol;Lee, Seung-Jun;Lee, Ho-Jung;Eom, Heung-Seop;Choi, Jong-Gyun;Jang, Seung-Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.849-858
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    • 2009
  • Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I&C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system.

Estimation of Human Carcinogenic Potency (HCP) of Carcinogens in Risk Assessment and Management. (위해성 평가 및 관리에 있어서 발암물질의 인체발암능력 평가)

  • 이병무;김대영;김세기;김근종
    • Environmental Mutagens and Carcinogens
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 1999
  • Human Carcinogenic Potency (HCP) can be estimated based on human daily exposure dose to carcinogen (Dh), body weight (Wh), 10% tumorigenic dose (TD10), and slope factor at TD10 (Q10) from 2-yr bioassay data. This approach is more relevant to humans generally exposed to low doses of carcinogens and can reduce more of extrapolation errors from high dose in animal experiments to low dose in humans than HERP (human exposure dose/rodent potency dose) proposed by Ames et al. (Science, 236, 271-280, 1987). TD50 and HERP have been routinely used to compare rodent carcinogenic potency and human carcinogenic potency, but those approaches have had limitations in extrapolation of high dose to low dose in humans. The advantages of HCP are to estimate human exposure dose (Dh) by human monitoring instead of environmental monitoring, to consider slope factor (Q10) which reflects the tendency of curve at low dose, and to use TD10 which represents much lower dose thant TD50 or HERP. HCP will be a useful parameter for the estimation of human carcinogenic potency in risk assessment and management of carcinogens.

Sensitivity analysis of failure correlation between structures, systems, and components on system risk

  • Seunghyun Eem ;Shinyoung Kwag ;In-Kil Choi ;Daegi Hahm
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.981-988
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    • 2023
  • A seismic event caused an accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, which further resulted in simultaneous accidents at several units. Consequently, this incident has aroused great interest in the safety of nuclear power plants worldwide. A reasonable safety evaluation of such an external event should appropriately consider the correlation between SSCs (structures, systems, and components) and the probability of failure. However, a probabilistic safety assessment in current nuclear industries is performed conservatively, assuming that the failure correlation between SSCs is independent or completely dependent. This is an extreme assumption; a reasonable risk can be calculated, or risk-based decision-making can be conducted only when the appropriate failure correlation between SSCs is considered. Thus, this study analyzed the effect of the failure correlation of SSCs on the safety of the system to realize rational safety assessment and decision-making. Consequently, the impact on the system differs according to the size of the failure probability of the SSCs and the AND and OR conditions.

Risk assessment of the potential for a classical swine fever outbreak in Korea based on a herd immunity

  • Lee, Changhee;Yoon, Hachung;Park, Choi-Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.429-435
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    • 2007
  • The risk of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) was evaluated in relation to the vaccination and seroprevalence of antibodies. Blood samples were collected from 60 piggeries throughout Korea and information regarding CSF vaccination habits was also obtained via in-person interviews with pig farmers. The results of the survey indicated that 51 out of 60 farms were regularly performing CSF vaccinations in reproductive herds. Farmers preferred to vaccinate their reproductive pigs before weaning (41 farms) than on (9 farms) or after weaning (1 farm). In growing herds, however, double vaccinations as recommended were implemented for only 40 farms (66.7%) and vaccine schedules were identified as being frequently ignored. Moreover, many farms (18/40) were found to vaccinate earlier or later than the recommended time. According to antibody seroprevalence levels, only 36 farms (60%) were considered to be safe regarding potential risk for a CSF outbreak. Among the remaining pig farms, 6 were at low-risk (10%), 12 were at medium-risk (20%), and another 6 were at high-risk (10%). Antibody levels were found to be consistent with vaccination status obtained from personal interview surveys. Our findings demonstrate the importance of vaccinations regarding the prevention of a CSF outbreak, suggesting that vaccinations must be promoted toward pig raisers and practitioners.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS IN A PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Authen, Stefan;Holmberg, Jan-Erik
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.471-482
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    • 2012
  • To assess the risk of nuclear power plant operation and to determine the risk impact of digital systems, there is a need to quantitatively assess the reliability of the digital systems in a justifiable manner. The Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general and PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Currently digital I&C systems are mostly analyzed simply and conventionally in PRA, based on failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree modelling. More dynamic approaches are still in the trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale PRA-models. As basic events CPU failures, application software failures and common cause failures (CCF) between identical components are modelled.The primary goal is to model dependencies. However, it is not clear which failure modes or system parts CCF:s should be postulated for. A clear distinction can be made between the treatment of protection and control systems. There is a general consensus that protection systems shall be included in PRA, while control systems can be treated in a limited manner. OECD/NEA CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRisk) has set up a task group, called DIGREL, to develop taxonomy of failure modes of digital components for the purposes of PRA. The taxonomy is aimed to be the basis of future modelling and quantification efforts. It will also help to define a structure for data collection and to review PRA studies.

Risk Assessment and Intervention of Ergonomic Risk Factor in Beekeeping (양봉 작업의 인간공학적 위험성평가 및 개선 사례)

  • Lee, Chanhwi;Kang, Taesun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.138-143
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the ergonomic risk factors in beekeeping, and to evaluate the effectiveness of assistive device hive lift. Methods: This study included 30 subjects of beekeeper in Pocheon, Korea. We assessed the ergonomic risk of main task in beekeeping with NLE, OWAS and evaluate the effectiveness of hive lift. We also surveyed prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms among the subjects based on the Korea Working Condition Survey. Results: Moving to different floral origin, internal inspection of beehives, feeding syrup is the most burdensome to musculoskeletal system (NLE LI value=2~3. OWAS action category=4). The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms (lower and upper extremities) among the subjects was over 80 %. The introduction of assistive devices in the three hazardous tasks has dramatically reduced the risk by removing manual lifting hives (OWAS action category<1). Conclusions: Beekeeping is a heavy workload on the musculoskeletal system because it has a lot of manual lifting task. As a result of applying the hive lift, the burden could be reduced.