• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제41권8호
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• pp.619-624
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• 2013

확률론적 수명예측은 파라미터들의 불확실성에 대하여 확률론적인 요소를 적용한다. 따라서 기존의 결정론적 수명해석 기법에 확률론적 기법을 적용하기 위해서는 파손확률을 이용한 위험도 평가가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 항공기 구조물의 확률론적 위험도평가를 수행하기 위하여 파손확률 추정 모델링 기법을 연구하였다. 이를 위해 파라미터들의 확률론적 불확실성을 효과적으로 반영할 수 있는 베이지안 기법을 이용하여 파손확률을 모델링하고 실험 데이터를 이용하여 검증하였다. 연구결과 베이지안 기반의 파손확률 추정 모델링은 정량적인 파손확률을 계산하고 확률론적 위험도평가를 효과적으로 수행할 수 있음을 입증하였다.

• 간호행정학회지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.484-492
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• 2011

Purpose: The aims of study were; (1) to evaluate the validity and sensitivity of a fall-risk assessment tool, and (2) to establish continuous quality improvement (CQI) methods to monitor the effective use of the risk assessment tool. Methods: A retrospective case-control cohort design was used. Analysis was conducted for 90 admissions as cases and 3,716 as controls during the 2006 and 2007 calendar years was conducted. Fallers were identified from the hospital’s Accident Reporting System, and non-fallers were selected by randomized selection. Accuracy estimates, sensitivity analysis and logistic regression were used. Results: At the lower cutoff score of one, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 82.2%, 19.3%, 0.03%, and 96.9%, respectively. The area under the ROC was 0.60 implying poor prediction. Logistic regression analysis showed that five out of nine constitutional items; age, history of falls, gait problems, and confusion were significantly associated with falls. Based on these results, we suggested a tailored falls CQI process with specific indexes. Conclusion: The fall-risk assessment tool was found to need considerable reviews for its validity and usage problems in practice. It is also necessary to develop protocols for use and identify strategies that reflect changes in patient conditions during hospital stay.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제30권6호
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• pp.130-136
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• 2016

대학이 산업수요 맞춤형 인재양성 교육체계를 갖추어 나가기 위해서는 수요자의 입장에서 교육과정을 분석하고 개선해 나갈 필요가 있다. 이러한 취지에서 본 논문은 화재위험성 예측평가분야 교육과정의 전공 적합도를 평가하기 위해 소방관련 산업체 종사자를 대상으로 수요조사를 하였으며 그 결과를 토대로 기술통계분석, 요인분석, 군집분석 그리고 일원분산분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과, 소방관련 산업체 종사자들은 화재위험성 예측평가 분야의 교육과정이 전공에 적합하다고 평가하였다. 그리고 화재위험성 예측평가분야의 교과목 중 전공기초과목과 전공공통과목의 필요성을 크게 인식하고 있었다. 이러한 분석결과는 향후 지속적으로 교육과정을 개선해 나가는데 기초자료로 활용할 계획이다.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2022

전국 시·도 및 시·군·구의 안전 관련 주요통계를 기반으로 사회재난은 지역안전지수 6개 분야(화재, 범죄, 교통사고, 생활안전, 자살, 감염병)에 대한 전국 지방자치단체의 지역안전지수 등급을 관리하여 개선대책을 수립 시행하고 있으며 자연재난은 자연재해 안전도 진단을 통해 관리체계를 운영하고 있다. 현재 적용하고 있는 자연재해 지역안전도 평가는 읍면동 지역 단위까지 자연재해 지역위험성 평가를 하기에는 내용이 매우 미흡한 실정이며, 지나치게 공학적이고 어렵게 표시되어있어 일반인들이 사용하는데 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 외국 선진국에서 주로 사용하는 자연재난과 사회재난이 혼합된 지역위험성평가 모형을 원형으로 하여 우리나라의 자연재난 지역위험성평가를 읍면동 하위 단위까지 확장된 개선 모형으로 제시하는데 목적이 있다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.165-169
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• 2013

Freshwater fish intake is a critical parameter for deriving water quality criteria and water quality standards for protection of human health based on human health risk assessment. Although the freshwater fish intake parameter should be accurate and representative of Korean fish consumption for the water quality criteria to be reliable, data are limited in Korea and have low reliability. In this study, Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2008-2010 were analyzed to reevaluate freshwater fish consumption. Based on these results, an average consumption rate of 3.0 g/day per person, a $90^{th}$ percentile consumption rate of 0.0 g/day per person, an average consumption rate of 65.7 g/day per fish consumer, and a $90^{th}$ percentile consumption rate of 153.4 g/day per fish consumer were proposed for derivation of water quality criteria using a conservative approach and various exposure scenarios.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.532-538
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• 2006

The railway human reliability analysis(R-HRA) plays a role of identifying and assessing human failure events in the framework of the probabilistic risk assessment(PRA) of the railway systems. This study introduces a case study that was performed to select an appropriate R-HRA method. Three HRA methods were considered in the case study: (1) the K-MRA(THERP/ASEP-based) method, (2) the HEART method, (3) the RSSB-HRA method. Two case events were selected based on the review of the railway incidents/accidents, which include (1) a real-end collision event, which occurred on the railway between the Gomo and Kyungsan stations in 2003, (2) the signal passed at danger(SPAD) events, which are caused from a variety of factors. The three HRA methods were applied to both case events, and then the strengths and limitations of each method were derived and compared with each other from the viewpoint of the applicability of a HRA method to the railway industry.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.74-81
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• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method(RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.295-300
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• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significant]y reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.49-59
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• 2004

본 논문에서는 도심지에서의 터널 시공에 따른 지반거동을 평가하고 이에 따른 인접 건물 혹은 매설관의 위험도를 평가하는 GIS기반의 위험도 관리 시스템(GIS-TURIMS) 개발에 대한 내용을 다루었다. 본 시스템은 상용 GIS 소프트웨어인 ArcView 8.1을 기반으로 개발되었고, VB(Visual Basic)와 VBA(Visual Basic Application)를 사용하여 터널시공으로 인한 지반거동과 건물 손상정도의 공학적 연산을 수행할 수 있도록 하였다. 개발된 시스템은 GIS기술의 장점을 최대한 활용하여 터널 시공으로 인한 지반거동, 건물/매설관 손상평가의 강력한 해석을 수행할 수 있도록 하였다. 본 논문에서는 GIS-TURIMS의 개요와 개발과정에 대하여 상세히 다루었다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.128-135
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• 2018

Currently, the government selects products that are likely to cause harm to consumers as safety management targets and classifies them into three types: safety certification, safety confirmation, and supplier conformity verification. In addition, the government conducts safety surveys on products in circulation or accident products, and recalls products that are of great concern to consumer risks. In this paper, we have developed RAP (Risk Assessment method based on Probability), which is a probability based product risk assessment method, for the classification of safety management type of product and safety investigation, and have shown an application example. In this process, information is used for the CISS (Consumer Injury Surveillance System) of the Korean Consumer Agency. In addition, we apply the cluster analysis to classify the current supervised children products into three groups. Then, we confirm the effectiveness of RAP by comparing the result of RAP application, cluster analysis result and current safety management classification type. Also, we recognize the need to review the current safety management classification criteria for classifying products into three types.