• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based assessment

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A Case Study of Risk Assessment of Ozone Impact on Forest Tree Species in Japan

  • Watanabe, Makoto;Yamaguchi, Masahiro;Matsumura, Hideyuki;Kohno, Yoshihisa;Koike, Takayoshi;Izuta, Takeshi
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2011
  • Ozone ($O_3$) is a main component of photochemical oxidants and a phytotoxic air pollutant. Although the current levels of tropospheric $O_3$ in East Asia could adversely affect productivity of forest tree species, risk assessments of $O_3$ impact were limited. In this paper, we summarize the methodology of risk assessment of $O_3$ on forest tree species based on our two previous studies, risk assessments of $O_3$ impact on the growth of Fagus crenata by Watanabe et al. (2012) and on the annual carbon absorption of three representative conifers, Cryptomeria japonica, Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi by Watanabe et al. (2010). $O_3$ sensitivity of each tree species obtained from an experimental study, $O_3$ exposure and atmospheric N deposition based on field monitoring and vegetation survey were integrated by geographic information system method. Based on the results, we conclude that the area with high risk of $O_3$ impact does not necessarily correspond to the area with high $O_3$ exposure. The varieties of tree habitat, tree sensitivity to $O_3$ and annual carbon absorption among the tree species, and N deposition-induced change in the $O_3$ sensitivity of F. crenata are raised as the factors of discordance between areas with high risk and those with high $O_3$ exposure. In the last part of this paper, we discuss the present uncertainty and perspectives of risk assessment for the future studies on the impact of $O_3$ on forest tree species in East Asia.

A study on the ecosystem-based fisheries assessment by quality analysis in Jeonnam marine ranching ecosystem (정량적 분석에 의한 전남바다목장의 생태계 기반 어업평가)

  • Park, Hee Won;Choi, Kwang Ho;Zhang, Chang Ik;Seo, Young Il;Kim, Heeyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2013
  • In the application of the ecosystem-based fisheries assessment Jeonnam marine ranching ecosystem, two fisheries, funnel fishery and trap fishery, were selected as target fisheries. Black seabream, Acanthopagru schlegelii, rock bream, Sebastes inermis, gray mullet, Mugil cephalus, were selected as target species for the funnel fishery, and conger eel, Conger myriaster, was target species for the trap fishery. For assessing indicators of four management objectives, that is the maintenance of sustainability, biodiversity, habitat quality and socio-economic benefits, indicators were selected considering the availability of data, which were 5 indicators for sustainability, 3 indicators for biodiversity, 4 indicators for habitat, 2 indicators for socio-economic benefit. The Objective risk indices for sustainability and biodiversity of two fisheries were estimated at yellow zone, medium risk level. The objective risk indices for habitat and socio-economic benefit were estimated at green zone, safe level. The species risk indices (SRI) were estimated at yellow zone. The fishery risk indices (FRIs) were estimated at 1.143 and 1.400 for funnel net fishery and trap fishery, respectively. Finally the ecosystem risk index estimated at 1.184.

Risk assessment of water inrush in karst tunnels based on a modified grey evaluation model: Sample as Shangjiawan Tunnel

  • Yuan, Yong-cai;Li, Shu-cai;Zhang, Qian-qing;Li, Li-ping;Shi, Shao-shuai;Zhou, Zong-qing
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.493-513
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    • 2016
  • A modified grey clustering method is presented to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels. Based on the center triangle whitenization weight function and upper and lower limit measure whitenization weight function, the modified grey evaluation model doesn't have the crossing properties of grey cluster and meets the standard well. By adsorbing and integrating the previous research results, seven influence factors are selected as evaluation indexes. A couple of evaluation indexes are modified and quantitatively graded according to four risk grades through expert evaluation method. The weights of evaluation indexes are rationally distributed by the comprehensive assignment method. It is integrated by the subjective factors and the objective factors. Subjective weight is given based on analytical hierarchy process, and objective weight obtained from simple dependent function. The modified grey evaluation model is validated by Jigongling Tunnel. Finally, the water inrush risk of Shangjiawan Tunnel is evaluated by using the established model, and the evaluation result obtained from the proposed method is agrees well with practical situation. This risk assessment methodology provides a powerful tool with which planners and engineers can systematically assess the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.

Assessment of the Risks of Occupational Diseases of the Passenger Bus Drivers

  • Golinko, Vasyl;Cheberyachko, Serhiy;Deryugin, Oleg;Tretyak, Olena;Dusmatova, Olga
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.543-549
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    • 2020
  • Background: The working conditions of bus drivers are difficult; they lead to occupational diseases and require careful study, particularly in Ukraine. The objective of the article is the description of occupational health risks of passenger bus drivers that lead to deteriorating health. Methods: The risk assessment was performed using a modified Risk Score method, which allowed determining the generalized level of danger to the driver's health. The hygienic hazards level was assessed as based on Stevenson's law, which was generalized later. Results: Based on the modification of the Risk Score method, it was possible to depart from expert assessments method of the risk level and calculate the general indicator based on the degree of dependence of the impact on the human body on its intensity, proposed by V. Minko. This allows objective determining of the impact of hygiene hazards on the health of the driver and to predict the occurrence of occupational diseases associated with the cardiovascular system, musculoskeletal system, and partial or complete disability due to the accumulation of emotional fatigue. The hazard assessment was carried out for three brands of passenger buses common in Ukraine, in which the driver is exposed to the dangers of fever, vibration, noise, harmful impurities in the bus cabin, and emotional load. Conclusion: The health of drivers in the cabins of passenger buses is most affected by hygiene hazards: fever, vibration, and emotional stress. The generalized level of risk is calculated by the modified method of Risk Score is 0.83; -0.99, -0.92 respectively.

Risk assessment of heavy metals in soil based on the geographic information system-Kriging technique in Anka, Nigeria

  • Johnbull, Onisoya;Abbassi, Bassim;Zytner, Richard G.
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2019
  • Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.

Mitigating Threats and Security Metrics in Cloud Computing

  • Kar, Jayaprakash;Mishra, Manoj Ranjan
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.226-233
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    • 2016
  • Cloud computing is a distributed computing model that has lot of drawbacks and faces difficulties. Many new innovative and emerging techniques take advantage of its features. In this paper, we explore the security threats to and Risk Assessments for cloud computing, attack mitigation frameworks, and the risk-based dynamic access control for cloud computing. Common security threats to cloud computing have been explored and these threats are addressed through acceptable measures via governance and effective risk management using a tailored Security Risk Approach. Most existing Threat and Risk Assessment (TRA) schemes for cloud services use a converse thinking approach to develop theoretical solutions for minimizing the risk of security breaches at a minimal cost. In our study, we propose an improved Attack-Defense Tree mechanism designated as iADTree, for solving the TRA problem in cloud computing environments.

Development of a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Based Risk Assessment Tool for Information Security

  • Lai, Lotto Kim Hung;Chin, Kwai Sang
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2014
  • Risk management is recognized as a significant element in Information Security Management while the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is widely used in risk analysis in manufacturing industry. This paper aims to present the development work of the Information Security FMEA Circle (InfoSec FMEA Circle) which is used to support the risk management framework by modifying traditional FMEA methodologies. In order to demonstrate the "appropriateness" of the InfoSec FMEA Circle for the purposes of assessing information security, a case study at Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation (HKSTP) is employed. The "InfoSec FMEA Circle" is found to be an effective risk assessment methodology that has a significant contribution to providing a stepwise risk management implementation model for information security management.

Development of sewer condition assessment and rehabilitation decision-making program(SCARD) (하수관거 평가 및 정비 우선순위 의사결정도구 개발)

  • Han, Sangjong;Hwang, Hwankook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 2015
  • A CCTV inspection method has been widely used to assess sewer condition and performance, but Korea lacks a proper decision support system for prioritizing sewer repair and rehabilitation (R&R). The objective of this paper is to introduce the results that we have developed in the Sewer Condition Assessment and Rehabilitation Decision-making (SCARD) Program using MS-EXCEL. The SCARD-Program is based on a standardized defect score for sewer structural and hydraulic assessment. Priorities are ranked based on risk scores, which are calculated by multiplying the sewer severity scores by the environmental impacts. This program is composed of three parts, which are decision-making for sewer condition and performance assessment, decision-making for sewer R&R priority assessment, and decision-making for optimal budget allocation. The SCARD-Program is useful for decision-makers, as it enables them to assess the sewer condition and to prioritize sewer R&R within the limited annual budget. In the future, this program logic will applied to the GIS-based sewer asset management system in local governments.

Risk Assessment of Growth Hormones and Antimicrobial Residues in Meat

  • Jeong, Sang-Hee;Kang, Dae-Jin;Lim, Myung-Woon;Kang, Chang-Soo;Sung, Ha-Jung
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.301-313
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    • 2010
  • Growth promoters including hormonal substances and antibiotics are used legally and illegally in food producing animals for the growth promotion of livestock animals. Hormonal substances still under debate in terms of their human health impacts are estradiol-$17\beta$, progesterone, testosterone, zeranol, trenbolone, and melengestrol acetate (MGA). Many of the risk assessment results of natural steroid hormones have presented negligible impacts when they are used under good veterinary practices. For synthetic hormonelike substances, ADIs and MRLs have been established for food safety along with the approval of animal treatment. Small amounts of antibiotics added to feedstuff present growth promotion effects via the prevention of infectious diseases at doses lower than therapeutic dose. The induction of antimicrobial resistant bacteria and the disruption of normal human intestinal flora are major concerns in terms of human health impact. Regulatory guidance such as ADIs and MRLs fully reflect the impact on human gastrointestinal microflora. However, before deciding on any risk management options, risk assessments of antimicrobial resistance require large-scale evidence regarding the relationship between antimicrobial use in food-producing animals and the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in human pathogens. In this article, the risk profiles of hormonal and antibacterial growth promoters are provided based on recent toxicity and human exposure information, and recommendations for risk management to prevent human health impacts by the use of growth promoters are also presented.

International Research on Geotechnical Risk & Landslide Hazards (지반공학적 재해 및 산사태 위험도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Gil-Lim;Yoon, Yeo-Won;Kim, Hong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.03a
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    • pp.444-455
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    • 2009
  • Great concerns on geotechnical risk & hazard assessment have been increased due to human and economic damage by natural disasters with recent global climate changes. In this paper, geotechnical problems in particular, landslides which is interested in European countries and North America, were mainly discussed. For these, 18 key topics on geotechnical risk and hazards which had been discussed at the LARAM 2008 workshop in Italy were analyzed after grouping by subjects. Main topic contents consisted of applications such as field measurement, early warning systems, uncertainty analysis of parameters using radar, optical data and statistical theory and so on. And the problems related to analysis of vulnerability and deformation due to earthquakes, investigation of gas zone using seismic reflection data in a landslide area, risk quantification and hazard assessment of landslide movements and multi-dimensional analysis for stability of complex slopes were attracted. Also, there were studies on risk matters of cultural heritage, the blockglide of clayey ground, simulations of debris flows based on GIS, quantification of the failure processes of rock slopes, a meshless method for 3D crack modelling, and finally risk assessment for cryological processes due to global warming.

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