• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based assessment

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Time-Temperature Curve for Fire Safety Assessment of Metropolitan Transit Tunnels (도시철도 터널구조체의 내화안정성 평가를 위한 표준시간-온도곡선 적용)

  • Won, Jong-Pil;Choi, Min-Jung;Lee, Su-Jin;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.118-122
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    • 2010
  • The study presents a standard time-temperature curve to evaluate the fire performance of subway tunnel structures. The central subway section is 135km long in Korea, the fourth longest in the world. The number of subway tunnels has been increasing rapidly and fire risk is proportional to the tunnel length. However, an adequate time-temperature curve for subway tunnel fires does not exist. Therefore, we studied a proposed foreign fire design model for which the heat rate is based on the traffic, and we present an appropriate time-temperature curve for Korean subway tunnels. The ISO 834 curve was used as a fire design model and the temperature distribution in the tunnel was estimated using numerical analysis. This led to a proposal for effective measures against subway tunnel fires.

Geographic Information Systems(GIS) Use in Forest Pest Management : A Simulated Study on Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation (지리정보(地理情報)시스템(GIS) 이용(利用)과 산림(山林) 병충해(病蟲害) 관리(管理) : 소나무 좀벌레의 모형적(模型的) 예(例))

  • Lee, Kyu Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.78 no.2
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 1989
  • Recent development of geographic information systems(GIS) provides a great deal of potential in handling a variety of spatial data required by forest resource managers. This study is designed to identify a possible GIS application in forest pest management. Several mountain pine beetle risk assessment parameters(stand characteristics, weather conditions, and topographic factor) were spatially analyzed through computer map overlaying operations in order to estimate the hazard level of the pest damage. In addition, the expected infestation route from an initially infected forest stand was located through further may analysis operations(distance measurement and connectivity analysis). Although current GIS technology may have a few limitations in operational situations, the computer based GIS has been proven as an invaluable tool to resource managers by providing flexible spatial data handing capabilities.

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A probabilistic framework for drought forecasting using hidden Markov models aggregated with the RCP8.5 projection

  • Chen, Si;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.197-197
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    • 2016
  • Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

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Analyzing the Market Structure of Asian Construction Contracts : A Perspective on Korean Construction Firms (국내 건설기업의 아시아 계약실적 구조 분석)

  • Lee, Kang-Wook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.623-630
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    • 2019
  • As the Asian region becomes strategically important in the international construction market, competition among construction firms has been more intense. While existing literature on the Asian construction market have mainly focused on qualitative approaches to market entry strategies and risk assessment, quantitative research to explain the dynamic competitive structure of the market has been rarely conducted. To address this issue, this study analyzes the structure of contract performance in the Asian region based on the data from 3,996 projects awarded to Korean construction firms from 2009 to 2017. In addition, this study applies a mathematical model using both static (market concentration) and dynamic (market mobility and instability) analyses. Consequently, the static analysis indicates that market concentration led by top-four firms tends to be increased, and on the dynamic aspect, the market position of Korean construction firms is recently weakened and fluctuated in most of the Asian regions and the construction sectors. The methodology and result of this paper would be meaningful not only to understand the underlying structure of industry-level performance but also to provide a useful reference for establishing competitive strategies towards the Asian market.

A Study on the Assessment of Safety Performance for Complex Installation System of Stationary Fuel Cell and Boiler (건물용 연료전지-보일러 복합설치 안전성능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Woo;Lee, Eun-Kyung;Oh, Gun-Woo;Lee, Jung-Woon;Lee, Seung-Kuk
    • Korean Journal of Hazardous Materials
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2018
  • Interest in renewable energy is increasing for eco-friendly use of energy, and fuel cells are being used in various ways such as houses and buildings as power generation methods that have low emissions such as $NO_X$ and $CO_2$. As the supply of fuel cells expands, more and more boilers are installed in the existing buildings, but safety management is not being performed properly. Therefore, in this study, a prior study was conducted on the status of fuel cell-boiler complex installation and related criteria, and the risk factors were analyzed according to the installation environment and structure. Based on these standards, the safety performance of the fuel cell-boiler combined installation is assessed by conducting a demonstration using the starting product of the simulated operation to derive the installation criteria (proposal) for the fuel cell-boiler combined installation. The installation criteria (proposal) include the construction and connection method of the piping according to the fuel cell-boiler complex installation.

Usefulness of presepsin in predicting the prognosis of patients with sepsis or septic shock: a retrospective cohort study

  • Koh, Jeong Suk;Kim, Yoon Joo;Kang, Da Hyun;Lee, Jeong Eun;Lee, Song-I
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.318-325
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    • 2021
  • Background: The diagnosis and prediction of prognosis are important in patients with sepsis, and presepsin is helpful. In this study, we aimed to examine the usefulness of presepsin in predicting the prognosis of sepsis in Korea. Methods: Patients diagnosed with sepsis according to the sepsis-3 criteria were recruited into the study and classified into surviving and non-surviving groups based on in-hospital mortality. A total of 153 patients (32 and 121 patients with sepsis and septic shock, respectively) were included from July 2019 to August 2020. Results: Among the 153 patients with sepsis, 91 and 62 were in the survivor and non-survivor groups, respectively. Presepsin (p=0.004) and lactate (p=0.003) levels and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (p<0.001) were higher in the non-survivor group. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed poor performances of presepsin and lactate in predicting the prognosis of sepsis (presepsin: area under the curve [AUC]=0.656, p=0.001; lactate: AUC=0.646, p=0.003). The SOFA score showed the best performance, with the highest AUC value (AUC=0.751, p<0.001). The prognostic cutoff point for presepsin was 1,176 pg/mL. Presepsin levels higher than 1,176 pg/mL (odds ratio [OR], 3.352; p<0.001), higher lactate levels (OR, 1.203; p=0.003), and higher SOFA score (OR, 1.249; p<0.001) were risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: Presepsin levels were higher in non-survivors than in survivors. Thus, presepsin may be a valuable biomarker in predicting the prognosis of sepsis.

Systematic Review on the Effects of Herbal Medicine Compared to Amoxicillin in Patients with Upper Respiratory Tract Infection : Focusing on PubMED (상기도 감염 환자의 amoxicillin 대비 한약의 효과에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰 : PubMED를 중심으로)

  • Gwak, Seung Yeon;Jeong, Seol;Cho, Eun Ji;Jerng, Ui Min
    • The Korea Journal of Herbology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2021
  • Objective : This study aims to examine the effectiveness and safety of herbal medicines in upper respiratory tract infection by conducting systematic review against amoxicillin. Methods : Relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published by December 2020 were searched in PubMED database. Study selection was conducted according to the PRISMA guideline. The Risk of Bias of the RCTs were evaluated based on the Cochrane criteria. Study selection and bias assessment were conducted independently by two researchers, and the third party was involved if there is a disagreement. Results : Three RCTs were included. Meta-analysis was not performed due to different specific disease and outcome measurements among the included studies. Herbal medicine showed statistically significant improvement in symptoms and endoscopic findings compared to amoxicillin in acute rhinosinusitis. In addition, herbal medicine showed statistically significant improvement in symptoms and a smaller dose of additional antibiotics in acute tonsillitis. However, herbal medicine showed no significant effects compared to amoxicillin in chronic sinusitis patients after functional endoscopic sinus surgery. In terms of adverse events, no significant difference was observed between the herbal medicine group and the amoxicillin group in all studies. Conclusion : Herbal medicine might be more effective than amoxicillin in the treatment of upper respiratory tract infection. Nevertheless, it is hard to clear that conclusion due to the fact that the collected studies were conducted on different specific diseases and herbal medicine, and that the included studies had flaws in the research methodology.

A Study on the Development of Calculation Tables and Formulas for Determining Separation Distance in Case of Cl2・HF Tank-lorry Leakage (염소・불화수소 탱크로리 누출사고 시 이격거리 산정을 위한 산정표 및 산정식 개발 연구)

  • Jeon, Byeong-Han;Kim, Hyun-Sub;Lim, Sang-Min;Lee, Joo-Chan;Lee, Gang-San
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.212-219
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    • 2021
  • Chemical accidents caused by transport vehicles account for 20% of all chemical accidents every year, but there are difficulties in the accident-response process due to repeated situations where the impact assessment information is unknown. In this study, we developed a calculation table and formula for predicting the range of damage for chlorine and hydrogen fluoride, which have a high domestic usage, high risk of accidents, and high accident frequency in the last 7 years. The calculation table is based on the leakage rate, wind speed, and temperature, and the calculation formula was derived using R software for special situations where it is difficult to apply the calculation table. The calculation table and formula could be used on site by related organizations to obtain important information for decision making, which could help in minimizing damage from chemical accidents, setting separation distances, and deciding to evacuate residents.

Clinical Importance of Peak Cough Flow in Dysphagia Evaluation of Patients Diagnosed With Ischemic Stroke

  • Min, Sang Won;Oh, Se Hyun;Kim, Ghi Chan;Sim, Young Joo;Kim, Dong Kyu;Jeong, Ho Joong
    • Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.798-803
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    • 2018
  • Objective To investigate the relationship between peak cough flow (PCF), pulmonary function tests (PFT), and severity of dysphagia in patients with ischemic stroke. Methods This study included patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke, who underwent videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS), PCF and PFT from March 2016 to February 2017. The dysphagia severity was assessed using the videofluoroscopic dysphagia scale (VDS). Correlation analysis of VDS, PFT and PCF was performed. Patients were divided into three groups based on VDS score. One-way ANOVA of VDS was performed to analyze PCF, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and age among the different groups. Results The correlation coefficients of VDS and PCF, VDS and FVC, and VDS and FEV1 were -0.836, -0.508, and -0.430, respectively, all of which were statistically significant at the level of p<0.001. The one-way ANOVA indicated statistically significant differences in PCF, FVC, FEV1, and age among the VDS groups. Statistically significant differences in VDS and age were observed between aspiration pneumoia and non-aspiration pneumonia groups. Conclusion Coughing is a useful factor in evaluating the risk of aspiration in dysphagia patients. Evaluation of respiratory and coughing function should be conducted during the swallowing assessment of patients with ischemic stroke.

Implementation of Fatigue Identification System using C4.5 Algorithm (C4.5 알고리즘을 이용한 피로도 식별 시스템 구현)

  • Jin, You Zhen;Lee, Deok-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2019
  • This paper proposes a fatigue recognition method using the C4.5 algorithm. Based on domestic and international studies on fatigue evaluation, we have completed the fatigue self - assessment scale in combination with lifestyle and cultural characteristics of Chinese people. The scales used in the text were applied to 58 sub items and were used to assess the type and extent of fatigue. These items fall into four categories that measure physical fatigue, mental fatigue, personal habits, and fatigue outcomes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the leading causes of fatigue formation and to recognize the degree of fatigue, thereby increasing the personal interest in fatigue and reducing the risk of cerebrovascular disease due to excessive fatigue. The recognition rate of the fatigue recognition system using the C4.5 algorithm was 85% on average, confirming the usefulness of this proposal.