• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based

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A framework of Multi Linear Regression based on Fuzzy Theory and Situation Awareness and its application to Beach Risk Assessment

  • Shin, Gun-Yoon;Hong, Sung-Sam;Kim, Dong-Wook;Hwang, Cheol-Hun;Han, Myung-Mook;Kim, Hwayoung;Kim, Young jae
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.3039-3056
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    • 2020
  • Beaches have many risk factors that cause various accidents, such as drifting and drowning, these accidents have many risk factors. To analyze them, in this paper, we identify beach risk factors, and define the criteria and correlation for each risk factor. Then, we generate new risk factors based on Fuzzy theory, and define Situation Awareness for each time. Finally, we propose a beach risk assessment and prediction model based on linear regression using the calculated risk result and pre-defined risk factors. We use national public data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). The results of the experiment showed the prediction accuracy of beach risk to be 0.90%, and the prediction accuracy of drifting and drowning accidents to be 0.89% and 0.86%, respectively. Also, through factor correlation analysis and risk factor assessment, the influence of each of the factors on beach risk can be confirmed. In conclusion, we confirmed that our proposed model can assess and predict beach risks.

Risk Assessment Using RBI for Internal Corroded Pipelines in CDU Desulfurization Process (CDU 내 탈황공정의 내부부식 된 파이프라인을 대상으로 한 RBI기법을 이용한 위험성 평가)

  • Lim, Donghui;Jeong, Taehun;Lee, In-Dong;Jung, In Hee;Ko, Jae-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2019
  • in 2010s, many factories are operating without any safety guarantees due to the aging process. Although it is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of aging process and equipment, Prevent risk by risk assessment in advance. This study targets the corrosion caused by sulfur in the piping in the CDU(Crude Distillation Unit) process desulfurization equipment and conducts the risk assessment by RBI(Risk Based Inspection) referring to API RP 581. RBI expresses the risk by combining frequency and consequence, and creates a risk matrix based on these expression. In this study, the hole size of the pipe was selected as Small and Medium, and the sensitivity of the frequency was selected as 'Low'. You can refer to the Risk Matrix created from the standard to evaluate the risk of corrosion of sulfur from pipes in the piping and to plan future accident prevention. Similarly, prevention of aging in a similar way can prevent large and small incidents that are not visible.

Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level (분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Song, Inhong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2013
  • The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

Risk-based Operational Planning and Scheduling Model for an Emergency Medical Center (응급의료센터를 위한 위험기반 운영계획 모델)

  • Lee, Mi Lim;Lee, Jinpyo;Park, Minjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2019
  • In order to deal with high uncertainty and variability in emergency medical centers, many researchers have developed various models for their operational planning and scheduling. However, most of the models just provide static plans without any risk measures as their results, and thus the users often lose the opportunity to analyze how much risk the patients have, whether the plan is still implementable or how the plan should be changed when an unexpected event happens. In this study, we construct a simulation model combined with a risk-based planning and scheduling module designed by Simio LLC. In addition to static schedules, it provides possibility of treatment delay for each patient as a risk measure, and updates the schedule to avoid the risk when it is needed. By using the simulation model, the users can experiment various scenarios in operations quickly, and also can make a decision not based on their past experience or intuition but based on scientific estimation of risks even in urgent situations. An example of such an operational decision making process is demonstrated for a real mid-size emergency medical center located in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The model is designed for temporal short-term planning especially, but it can be expanded for long-term planning also with some appropriate adjustments.

Quantitative Risk Reduction Model according to SIL allocated by Risk Graph for Railway Platform Door System (Risk Graph에 의해 할당된 SIL에 따른 철도 승강장 도어 시스템의 정량적 Risk 저감 모델)

  • Song, Ki Tae;Lee, Sung Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2016
  • There exists required safety integrity level (SIL) to assure safety in accordance with international standards for every electrical / electronics / control equipment or systems with safety related functions. The SIL is allocated from lowest level (level 0) to highest level (level 4). In order to guarantee certain safety level that is internationally acceptable, application of methodology for SIL allocation and demonstration based on related international standards is required. Especially, in case of the SIL allocation method without determining of quantitative tolerable risk, the additional review is needed to check whether it is suitable or not is required. In this study, the quantitative risk reduction model based on the safety integrity allocation results of railway platform screen door system using Risk Graph method has been examined in order to review the suitability of quantitative risk reduction according to allocated safety integrity level.

Internet Addiction and Health Behaviors & Mental Health among Adolescents - The 2010 Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (청소년의 인터넷중독과 건강행태 및 정신건강 요인 - 2010년 청소년건강행태온라인조사 자료를 이용하여)

  • Kim, Dae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between internet addiction and health behaviors & mental health among Korean adolescents. Methods: Data from the 2010 Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey was analyzed. Using the Korean Internet Addiction Proneness Scale for Youth-Short Form: Self Report developed by the Korean National Information Society Agency in 2008, subjects were classified into 3 groups for internet addiction including general user, potential-risk group, and high-risk group. The health behaviors and mental health were compared among the groups for internet addiction by gender. Results: There was significantly higher prevalence of internet addiction including potential-risk group and high-risk group in boys(14.1%) than in girls(8.8%). There were significant odds ratios of perceived stress, perceived depression, perceived health and happiness, and satisfaction of sleeping in both genders at potential-risk group and high-risk group compared to general user for the internet addiction. The odds ratios of smoking at high risk group, alcohol drinking at potential risk group, eating breakfast at high risk group, and moderate physical activity at both risk groups among boys were significant. Among girls at both risk group, the odds ratios of smoking, alcohol drinking, and eating breakfast were significant. Conclusions: This study reveals a significant association among internet addiction, and health behaviors, and mental health in Korean adolescents.

Effects of Physical Environment on Risk Perception in Customers at Raw-fish Restaurants - focused on Northeastern Area of Kangwon Province - (생선회전문점의 물리적 환경이 이용고객의 지각된 위험에 미치는 영향 - 강원영동지역권역 위주 -)

  • Yoon, Tae-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.585-592
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this article was to research the effects of physical environment on risk perception in customers at raw-fish restaurants in the Northeastern area of Kangwon province, South Korea. In this research, reliability analysis, factor analysis and path analysis were carried out. Physical environments were divided into four factors and risk perception into three factors. 'Exterior facility' had a negative influence on performance (p<0.001) and financial risk (p<0.001). 'Interior facility' negatively affected performance risk (p<0.001), financial risk (p<0.001) and time risk (p<0.001). 'The others' negatively influenced performance risk (p<0.05). Lastly, 'press copy' negatively influenced performance risk (p<0.001). Based on these results, various physical environments affected the risk perception in customers at raw-fish restaurants, and satisfaction level of customers was based on risk perceptions. As a result, food-service companies need to manage the physical environment as a marketing strategy, as well as reduce risk perception to increase customers loyalty.

Study On the Design of Risk Management Web-Monitoring System using AANN (AANN을 이용한 웹-모니터링 시스템 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 김동회;이영삼;김성호
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.545-550
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    • 2004
  • Recent natural disasters like flooding and slope collapse have shown the need for natural risk management system, as they endanger directly public health and cause severe damages on the national economy. In order to improve the efficiency of risk management systems, this management system based on AANN(Auto-Associative Neural Network)is proposed in this paper. AANN can be effectively used for identification of abnormal data and data compression. The proposed AANN-based risk management system collects and stores measurement data from sensors and transmits them to remote server for web-monitoring. Generally, it is desirable to transmit the compressed data instead of raw data in normal state. However, if dangerous situation happens, rapid tramission of measurement data should be required. These requirements are easily satisfied by using AANN. In order to verify the feasibilities of the proposed system, The AANN-based risk management system is applied to slope collapse monitoring system.

Proposing a Method for Robustness Index Evaluation of the Structures Based on the Risk Analysis of Main Shock and Aftershock

  • Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza;Faghihmaleki, Hadi
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1710-1722
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    • 2018
  • Investigating remained damages from terrible earthquakes, it could be concluded that some events including explosion because of defect and failure in the building mechanical facilities or caused by gas leak, firing, aftershocks, etc., which are occurred during or a few time after the earthquake, will increase the effects of damages. In this paper, by introducing a complete risk analysis which included direct and indirect risks for earthquake (the main shock) and aftershock, the corresponding robustness index was created that called as "robustness index sequential critical events risk-based". One of the main properties of the intended robustness index is using progressive collapse percentage in its evaluation. Then, in a numerical example for a 4-storey moment resisting steel frame structure, a method is presented for obtaining all effective parameters in robustness index evaluation based on the intended risk and at last its results were reported.

Construction Safety Risk Assessment Method Based on Accident Loss Cost in the Construction Phase (시공단계의 사고손실 비용 기반 건설안전 위험성 평가 방안)

  • Lee, Jae-Hyun;Jeong, Jae-Wook;Jeong, Jae-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.407-408
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    • 2023
  • This article proposes a method to assess construction safety risk during the construction phase based on accident loss costs. Risk assessments for hazardous construction work are required by law, but they lack quantitative criteria. To address this, a survey estimated loss costs due to fatalities in the construction industry, finding labor loss cost and delay reimbursement cost to be the largest factors. The proposed method uses algorithm to calculate expected accidents and risk levels based on project characteristics, work methods, personnel, and environment data. This method is expected to enhance the reliability and usability of risk assessments during the construction phase of construction projects.

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