• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Metals in Water Body using WASP (WASP 모의를 이용한 하천 수계 중금속 위해성평가 방법)

  • Shin, Yu-Ri;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Jeon, Na-Jeong;Rhee, Han-Pil
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.629-636
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    • 2010
  • According to the spatial movements of the Nak-dong river watershed, the changes in heavy metal concentrations were simulated by WASP7.3. The risk assessment was performed using the predicted data of WASP7.3. The target heavy metal was manganese (Mn). In the simulated manganese data of WASP7.3, the average concentration by regions was from 0.03 mg/L to 0.07 mg/L. It is lower than drinking water standard in korea. The risk assessment was presented that it was high at the junction of Nak-dong river and Kumho river. It was influenced by the discharge of industrial complexes and large cities which were located in the junction. In comparison of drinking water standard and predicted data of WASP7.3 risk assessment, whole watershed was also low level at predicted data. However, to keep the similar risk value ($10^{-7}$) in adults and children anywhere, it requires the additional treatment of the point source discharges. It was also reflected by regions. Through this study, it was possible to evaluate heavy metal influence in unattainable monitoring regions and to estimate heavy metal addition and reduction by locations. Therefore, the outcomes of WASP7.3 can connect with the risk assessment and it can evaluate the safety of human by regions.

Interactions between the $FTO$ rs9939609 polymorphism, body mass index, and lifestyle-related factors on metabolic syndrome risk

  • Baik, In-Kyung;Shin, Chol
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.78-85
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    • 2012
  • Whether the $FTO$ polymorphisms interact with environmental factors has not yet been evaluated in associations with metabolic syndrome (MS) risk. The present study investigated the association of the $FTO$ rs9939609 genotypes, body mass index (BMI), and lifestyle-related factors including smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, and diet with MS incidence. A population-based prospective cohort study comprised 3,504 male and female Koreans aged 40 to 69 years. At the beginning of the study, all individuals were free of MS and known cardiovascular disease. Incident cases of MS were identified by biennial health examinations during a follow-up period from April 17, 2003 to April 15, 2009. Pooled logistic regression analysis was applied to obtain relative odds (RO) of MS with its 95% confidence interval (CI). After controlling for potential MS risk factors, we observed no association between the rs9939609 genotypes and MS incidence. In analysis stratified by BMI, however, carriers with the $FTO$ risk allele whose BMI is $29kg/m^2$ or greater showed an approximately 6-fold higher RO (95% CI: 3.82 to 9.30) compared with non-carriers with BMI less than $25kg/m^2$. In particular, the association between the rs9939609 variants and MS risk was significantly modified by high BMI (P-value for interaction < 0.05). Such significant interaction appeared in associations with central obesity and high blood pressure among the MS components. Because carriers of the $FTO$ risk alleles who had BMI of $29kg/m^2$ or greater are considered a high risk population, we suggest that they may need intensive weight loss regimens to prevent MS development.

Body Mass Index, Self-recognized Body-type, Eating Habits, and Eating Disorders of College Students (일부 대학생의 인식체형, 식행동, 체질량지수 및 섭식장애 경향)

  • Rhie, Seung Gyo;Song, Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.495-508
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to recognize the need for diet and nutrition education to correct body-shape and eating habits that lead to eating disorders in college students. The relationship between diet and obesity was confirmed. Approximately 405 (male 46.4%, female 53.6%) students were evaluated by questionnaire in September 2014. The statistical program SAS (ver. 4.3) was used to evaluate the Chi-squared, F and T-value. The correlation between eating disorder risk and eating habits was evaluated by Pearson's correlation. Body type recognition was classified into nine steps up the body fatty (9) to skinny (1) to show their body. Eating disorder risk (KEAT-26) was composed of F1 (attachment factors for weight loss), F2 (attachment factors for binge eating, and food), and F3 (adjustment factor to eating their will. The risk of eating disorders in male 73.4% of low risk, in female 61.3% (p<0.05). According to body mass index, underweight groups recognized in the normal weight (53.7%), normal weight group was in overweight (29.1%) (p<0.001). According to body-type, the overweight group had a higher risk of eating disorders (68.2%). The KEAT-26 showed that the overweight and obese group were high-risk in F1 & F2, while the underweight group was high-risk in F3 (p<0.001). Recognized overweight showed the dangers of eating disorders, proper recognition of body-type and body mass index required. Tendency to seek a balanced diet was associated with eating disorders, no-imposed adequate diet for nutritional education would be made. Proper nutrition education for males is needed depending on the increased incidence of male eating disorders.

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study

  • Shadmani, Fatemeh Khosravi;Mansori, Kamyar;Karami, Manoochehr;Zayeri, Farid;Shadman, Reza Khosravi;Hanis, Shiva Mansouri;Soori, Hamid
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

Regional Analysis of Particulate Matter Concentration Risk in South Korea (국내 지역별 미세먼지 농도 리스크 분석)

  • Oh, Jang Wook;Lim, Tea Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.157-167
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    • 2017
  • Millions of People die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Especially, one of the most severe types of air pollution is fine particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5). South Korea also has been suffered from severe PM. This paper analyzes regional risks induced by PM10 and PM2.5 that have affected domestic area of Korea during 2014~2016.3Q. We investigated daily maxima of PM10 and PM2.5 data observed on 284 stations in South Korea, and found extremely high outlier. We employed extreme value distributions to fit the PM10 and PM2.5 data, but a single distribution did not fit the data well. For theses reasons, we implemented extreme mixture models such as the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with the normal, the gamma, the Weibull and the log-normal, respectively. Next, we divided the whole area into 16 regions and analyzed characteristics of PM risks by developing the FN-curves. Finally, we estimated 1-month, 1-quater, half year, 1-year and 3-years period return levels, respectively. The severity rankings of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration turned out to be different from region to region. The capital area revealed the worst PM risk in all seasons. The reason for high PM risk even in the yellow dust free season (Jun. ~ Sep.) can be inferred from the concentration of factories in this area. Gwangju showed the highest return level of PM2.5, even if the return level of PM10 was relatively low. This phenomenon implies that we should investigate chemical mechanisms for making PM2.5 in the vicinity of Gwangju area. On the other hand, Gyeongbuk and Ulsan exposed relatively high PM10 risk and low PM2.5 risk. This indicates that the management policy of PM risk in the west side should be different from that in the east side. The results of this research may provide insights for managing regional risks induced by PM10 and PM2.5 in South Korea.

Fashion shoppers' perceived risk and satisfaction at overseas online malls based on their internet shopping values (해외 인터넷 쇼핑몰에서 패션상품을 직접 구매하는 소비자의 쇼핑 가치에 따른 위험 지각과 만족도)

  • Kim, Yongsook
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2016
  • The purposes of this study was to identify fashion shoppers' perceived risk and satisfaction while shopping at overseas online shopping malls based on their internet shopping values. A self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection and an internet survey was conducted from April 12~15, 2015. Most consumers purchased one or two fashion items at overseas online malls directly, motivated by low prices, and spent 200,000~400,000 won during the last one year. The factors of consumers' internet shopping values were information, hedonics, and practicality. Factors of perceived risk were delivery and refund, price and approval, and product and shopping mall. Consumers were divided into three categories: heavy pursuit shoppers, intermediate shoppers, and uninformed shoppers based on their internet shopping values. Heavy pursuit shoppers were primarily female; they spent more, felt a deeper patronage with overseas online shopping malls and their perceived risk regarding delivery and refund was higher than the other shoppers. The group of uninformed shoppers were primarily male. They spent less, had low patronage with overseas online shopping malls, and their perceived risk regarding delivery and refund was lower than other shoppers. Overall satisfaction was positively affected by information provided while shoppers were surfing the overseas online shopping malls and practicality. Satisfaction was negatively affected by perceived risk regarding price and approval and difficulty in finding specific products while shopping at overseas online shopping malls.

Major Studios' Risk Sharing Mechanism in the US TV Drama Industry (미국 TV드라마 산업에서 메이저 스튜디오의 리스크 분산 메커니즘)

  • Yim, Jung-Su
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2011
  • This study explored the risk sharing mechanism in the US TV drama industry. The hollywood system of TV production and distribution can be understood to be the result of the efforts to reduce the uncertainty and the risk of investment. Since the 1990s, the vertical integration of major studios and networks has been one of the core strategies for risk sharing. In the strategy, the most important role of networks is to schedule new series that the affiliated studios produce. Networks also provide the new series their brand value. On the other hand, the most important role of studios in the vertical integrated environment is to provide the affiliated networks the infrastructures for production and distribution, financial management, and product management. In addition, networks keep the right on the series in the secondary markets, and attempt to increase the aggressive investment on new series on the base of the rights. However, such a risky investment can be the potential burden and risk for the networks in the future. This paper shows the importance of the reasonable risk sharing in the television drama industry to the Korean TV drama industry that has experienced the conflict between networks and independent production companies.

The effect of the cariview test and professional brushing training on the reduction of PHP index of dental hygiene students (Cariview test와 전문가 칫솔질 교육이 치위생(학)과 신입생의 PHP index 감소에 미치는 효과)

  • Kim, Youn-Hwa;Kim, Yu-Geun;Yoo, Jin-Ah;Park, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.993-1001
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to examine the effectiveness in oral health promotion through oral health education for freshmen students of the dental hygiene department. Methods: To verify its effectiveness, research was conducted on 74 freshmen of the dental hygiene department by the evaluation of DMFT index, PHP index, and Cariview test (2015-2016). Results: The analysis of the test results using Cariview equipment shows a categorization of low risk group consisting of 10 students (13.5%), middle risk group consisting of 47 students (63.5%), and a high risk group consisting of 17 students (22.9%). DT index according to the number of daily tooth brushing by <2 is DT index average score higher and in such a case, statistics are considered meaningful (p<0.01). Oral health state at DMFT index of low risk group according to Cariview risk group for an analysis is lower than both the middle risk group and the high risk group (p<0.001). Conclusions: A review of the effect of the promotion of oral health through oral health education on the behavior change rather than of Cariview test and value of dental plaque through tooth brushing method was conducted.

Ultrasonographic Mass Screening for Thyroid Carcinoma (초음파를 이용한 갑상선암의 집단검진)

  • Chung Woong-Yoon;Chang Hang-Seok;Kim Eun-Kyung;Park Cheong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.177-181
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    • 1999
  • Objective: The clinical significance of mass screening for thyroid carcinoma remains unclear. This study was carried out to clarify the value of mass screening for thyroid carcinoma. Materials and Methods: From December 1997 through July 1998, a total of 1,401 subjects who were enrolled to receive breast screening or follow-up examination for breast cancer were included in this study. Thyroid glands were examined by 10 MHz ultrasonography by one experienced radiologist. The patients with thyroid nodules were classified into 2 groups according to their potential risk of malignancy by ultrasonographic findings(high-risk : hypoechogenicity, microcalcification, irregular margin, taller than wider shape). High-risk patients were advised to undergo fine-needle aspiration biopsy and thyroidectomy. The characteristics of the thyroid cancers detected by ultrasonographic mass screening were compared by those of clinical thyroid cancer excluding male patients during the same period. Results: Thyroid nodules were detected in 353(25.2%) of the subjects and 259(73.4%) were listed in the low-risk group and 94(26.6%) in high-risk group. Among 94 patients in the high-risk group, 43 underwent thyroidectomy and 37 turned out to have thyroid carcinomas. Thus, the detection rates for carcinoma were 2.6% of all subject, 10.5% of the detected nodules, 36.4% of the high risk women and 86.0% of the operated cases. The tumor size was significantly smaller in the mass-screening group than in the clinical cancer group(p<0.05). However, there was no statistical differences between two groups in the prevalences of neck node involvement and extracapsular invasion and the patients distributions by AMES score, MACIS score and TNM stage. Conclusion: Ultrasonogrpahic mass screening may be useful for the early detection of thyroid carcinoma in women who are scheduled to have breast examination.

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Development of Impact-based Heat Health Warning System Based on Ensemble Forecasts of Perceived Temperature and its Evaluation using Heat-Related Patients in 2019 (인지온도 확률예보기반 폭염-건강영향예보 지원시스템 개발 및 2019년 온열질환자를 이용한 평가)

  • Kang, Misun;Belorid, Miloslav;Kim, Kyu Rang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.195-207
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to introduce the structure of the impact-based heat health warning system on 165 counties in South Korea developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. This system was developed using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a human physiology-based thermal comfort index, and the Local ENSemble prediction system for the probability forecasts. Also, A risk matrix proposed by the World Meteorological Organization was employed for the impact-based forecasts of this system. The threshold value of the risk matrix was separately set depending on regions. In this system, the risk level was issued as four levels (GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED) for first, second, and third forecast lead-day (LD1, LD2, and LD3). The daily risk level issued by the system was evaluated using emergency heat-related patients obtained at six cities, including Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, for LD1 to LD3. The high-risks level occurred more consistently in the shorter lead time (LD3 → LD1) and the performance (rs) was increased from 0.42 (LD3) to 0.45 (LD1) in all cities. Especially, it showed good performance (rs = 0.51) in July and August, when heat stress is highest in South Korea. From an impact-based forecasting perspective, PTmax is one of the most suitable temperature indicators for issuing the health risk warnings by heat in South Korea.