• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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Integrating Real Options with Earned Value methods as a decision support tool for the financial evaluation of alternative construction methods

  • Bonsang Koo
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.129-132
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    • 2013
  • Determining on a particular construction method is typically decided in the initial phases of a project. However, changing conditions during actual construction may require a different method or technology to be employed. Providing an option for project managers to change construction provides flexibility that can increase value to the overall project. This research provides the ability to modify construction methods as a real option, which allows its value to be modeled. The research also formalizes a way to integrate a binomial lattice model with the Earned Value Method's S-curve. The integrated model provides a decision support tool that planners can use to determine whether to exercise the option depending on the status metrics provided by EVM.

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Strategic Deviance, Cost Behavior and Firm Value (전략적 일탈 기업의 원가행태와 기업가치)

  • Soon-hong Park
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.189-204
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of corporate strategic deviance on firm value considering a firm's cost stickiness. Design/methodology/approach - This study used 40,823 firm-year observations from the Korean stock markets, KOSPI and KOSDAQ. Several multiple regression models were used in order to analyze the data Findings - First, unlike the previous results, corporate strategic deviation is positively associated with firm value. Second, the cost stickiness of a firm is positively related to firm value. Third, the interaction effect between strategic deviation and cost stickiness has negative relation with firm value. Fourth, An increase in standard deviation directly correlates with a decrease in firm value for firms with high levels of controlling shareholder ownership or that are part of chaebols. Research implications or Originality - Strategically deviant firms can experience an increase in firm value due to their future competitive advantage. Moreover, stickiness of costs generally has a positive impact on firm value. However, when firms with high levels of cost stickiness employ strategic deviant strategies, there is a risk of agency problems such as excessive overinvestment, which can negatively impact firm value.

Risk Assessment of Drought for Regional Upland Soil According to RCP8.5 Scenario Using Soil Moisture Evaluation Model (AFKE 0.5)

  • Seo, Myung-Chul;Cho, Hyeon-Suk;Seong, Ki-Yeong;Kim, Min-Tae;Park, Tae-Seon;Kang, Hang-Won;Shin, Kook-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.434-444
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    • 2013
  • In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

The Analysis of Risk according to Traffic Accident Types by Novice and Experienced Drivers in Korea (초보 및 일반운전자의 교통사고유형별 위험도 비교분석)

  • Kim, Gi-Yong;Jang, Myeong-Sun;O, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2009
  • To analyze the risk according to accident types by novice and experienced drivers, it is used the accidents data which occurred for 2 years(2005~2006) in Korea. It is defined that novice driver is a people who is not passed 1 year after getting a driving licence and experienced driver is a people who is passed 1 year in this study. It is used a risk model to compare and analyze about the risk between two groups. The risk model is developed to apply together two variables which is accidents frequency and severity. Then it is used a conceptual weight to find that proper rate between accident frequency and fatal accident frequency. It is found a weight($\omega=0.6$) to suitable value to apply a risk model. The results showed that collision with obstacles, angle collision($90^{\circ}$) types to novice driver group have bigger risk than experienced driver group.

Assessment of Risk Based Pollution Level of Pb and Cd in Metal Contaminated Soils Using Biotic Ligand Model (Biotic ligand model에 근거한 중금속 오염지역의 Pb 및 Cd 위해오염도 평가기법 개발)

  • An, Jin-Sung;Jeong, Seul-Ki;Moon, Hee-Sun;Nam, Kyoung-Phile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2011
  • Risk based pollution level of Pb and Cd in metal contaminated soils depending on physicochemical properties of soil in a target site was assessed using biotic ligand model. Heavy metal activity in soil solution defined as exposure activity (EA) was assumed to be toxic to Vibrio fischeri and soil organisms. Predicted effective activity (PEA) determined by biotic ligand model was compared to EA value to calculate risk quotient. Field contaminated soils (n = 10) were collected from a formes area and their risk based pollution levels were assessed in the present study using the calculated risk quotient. Concentrations of Pb determined by aqua regia were 295, 258, and 268 mg/kg in B, H and J points and concentrations of Cd were 4.73 and 6.36 mg/kg in G and I points, respectively. These points exceeded the current soil conservation standards. However, risk based pollution levels of the ten points were not able to be calculated because concentrations of Pb and Cd in soil solution were smaller than detection limits or one (i.e., non toxic). It was because heavy metal activity in soil solution was dominant toxicological form to organisms, not a total heavy metal concentration in soil. In addition, heavy metal toxicity was decreased by competition effect of major cations and formation of complex with dissolved organic carbon in soil solution. Therefore, it is essential to consider site-specific factors affecting bioavailability and toxicity for estimating reliable risk of Pb and Cd.

Application of Matrices and Risk Assessment of Industries and Processes using DMF (DMF 취급 사업장에 대한 매트릭스 적용 및 위험성 평가 연구)

  • Ha, Kwon Chul;Park, Dong-Uk;Yoon, Chung Sik;Choi, Sang Jun;Lee, Gwang Yong;Paik, Do Hyun;Nam, Tek Hyung;Lee, Jae Hwan;Lee, Jong Keun;Jung, Eun-Kyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.303-309
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    • 2008
  • The reduction of risk within the workplace has long been focus of attention both through industry initiatives and legislation. Exposure matrices according to industries and processes treated DMF (N,N-Dimethylformamide) were constructed based on KOSHA (Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency)'s 2005 exposure database which were gathered from Korean agencies of workplace hazards evaluation for business place. These exposure matrices were assessed by danger value (DV) that was calculated from combination of hazard rating, duration of use rating, and risk probability rating of exposure to chemical hazardous agents in accordance with Hallmark Risk Assessment Tool. The results of risk assessment is divided four kinds of control bands which were related with control measures. The applicability of risk assessment using exposure matrices was performed by field study and survey for high matrices group. This study found that more attentions should be paid to two industries, manufacture of sewn wearing apparel and manufacture of textiles, among 19 industries, and to 3 processes, coating, processing & mixing, and lab, among 80 processes because those were regarded as having the highest risk.

Analysis of Risk Factors in Ex-Ante Evaluation of Large-Scale Government R&D Programs (대형 R&D사업 사전평가에서의 위험요인에 대한 인식 분석)

  • Lee, Yoon Been;Yoon, Ji Woong
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.289-308
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    • 2014
  • We analyze the risk factors identified for ex-ante evaluation regarding government R&D programs. In particular, we empirically examined to what extent each risk factor is perceived to be important by the stage of R&D, technology field, researcher's career and experience. The empirical results show that technology risk is perceive to be less important for basic research, while market risk more perceived to be important in the IT field. Political risk is perceived to be less important for the university faculty, while researchers with government R&D project experience gave more value to legal risk factor.

Guarantee Institutions' Risk in China: Evidence from Small and Medium Enterprises (중국 보증기관의 위험 결정 요인 : 중소형 기업을 중심으로)

  • Xiao, Han;Lee, Sang-Whi;Jung, Do-Sub
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.25-47
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    • 2013
  • In China, the commercial bank credit financing is the most important external financing channel for SMEs. However, the lack of credit guarantee significantly deters commercial banks to finance SMEs. which may generate a negative impact on the trade activities of SME in China. In this paper we examine the risk of credit guarantee for SMEs financing and the factors affecting this risk through a VAR (Value-at-Risk) model. Our analysis shows that the scale of enterprises' impact on the VAR (risk of financing guarantee) is not much relevant. We also find that the certainty of financing for SMEs, such as the fixed asset ratio, has a significant and negative effect on the VAR of Chinese credit guarantee institutions. The product uniqueness is positively correlated with the VAR, and operation risk is also positively related to the credit risk of Chinese credit guarantee institutions.

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Brand License Effects on Consumer's Preception - Focus on Perceived Risk and Congruence between Product and Brand type - (브랜드 라이센싱이 소비자지각에 미치는 연구 - 상품유형과의 적합성이 지각된 위험에 미치는 영향을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Sang-Jo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of perceived risk and brand attitude on licensing brands comparing with non-licensed brands(virtual brand). Data was collected through a self-administered questionnaire in quasi-experimental design setting. I designed the experimental setting that there were two virtual companies to sell the luxury bags(symbolic goods) or cruise tour(experiential goods) and to launch their goods with own brand or licensed brand. The experimental groups were composed of women consumers who were familiar with consuming experiential goods and symbolic goods. Results from the experiment suggest that consumer's perceived risk on brands gives a negative impact on brand attitude. And congruence in goods types and licensed brand values leads to difference in the level of perceived risk. In experiential goods, brand licensing from famous and experiential brands can reduce perceived risk. But in symbolic goods, brand licensing effect which reduces the perceived risk is less effective than in experiential goods. This findings suggest that brand licensing may lower the level of consumer's perceived risk, but incongruity in goods type and brand value may result in strategic failure.

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A Study on the Application of Records Management Standards to Risk Management Framework (위험관리체계의 기록관리표준 적용방안 연구)

  • Jeong, Ki-Ae;Lee, Jeong-Hoon;Nam, Young-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.189-215
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    • 2011
  • Owing to changing work environment and increasing uncertainty, risk management in records management area is becoming more important to secure work legitimacy and to increase the value of information for future. While risk factors in traditional records management were mainly focused on the preservation function, those in current records management were directly coupled with those of overall work processes which produce, distribute, and utilize records because information technologies make the relationship between works and records closer. This study proposes a set of risk management factors and strategies in records management based on the overall risk management framework of ISO 31000. Moreover, ARMA's works areas and NIST's systems areas were applied to form the risk management processes in records management, and ISO's records management standards were used to suggest the checklists for the processes in both areas, especially with ISO TR 26122 for work processes, and ISO 16175-3 for the context of records.