• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.45-52
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• 2023

Recently, as climate change caused by greenhouse gases is intensifying, the international community has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The purpose of this study is to present the methodology and major considerations for investment judgment. Two actual cases of overseas projects were selected as study subjects. As an analysis method, the major risk factors were defined as a probability distribution, and the NPV was stochastically estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In addition, assuming a policy change, the range of NPV change was analyzed. As a result, the average NPV of project A was lowered by 19%, and the probability of showing a negative NPV was 12.2%. The average value of project B was lowered by 12.5%. Considering the policy change, project A can obtain economic benefits only when it obtains 72.9% or more of the total amount of carbon credits generated, and project B is economically feasible when it acquires 49.5% or more. As a result, the average value of project A is lower than the net present value under basic assumptions, so caution is needed in investment decisions depending on changes in major risk factors. Additionally, considering policy changes, the carbon credit distribution ratio should be differentially applied depending on the project size, and this was presented as a specific figure.

• 한국환경농학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.3-18
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• 2009

It is difficult for consumers to satisfy high safety request with post-management method such as inspection and surveillance, as various changes in-and-out of the country associated with food safety. In terms of food safety problems related to foods, it is crucial to recognize public health and consumer protection and construct pre-preventive Food Control System. A joint committee, FAO/WHO made the following consultations to the National Food Safety System. ${\circ}$ Approach entirely from farm to table ${\circ}$ Get ready for Risk Analysis System ${\circ}$ Secure transparency ${\circ}$ Establish the optimal policy by evaluating the effect of regulation When it comes to summarizing the consultation, it would be accumulated as two key words; "Efficiency" and "Credibility". Whereas the problem of efficiency focuses on precaution rather than post-management, it requires policy option to maximize consumer's benefit by evaluating the cost for the Food Safety Management and its benefit. Also, analyzing risk's character and amount, demanding an optimal means, and introducing scientific analysis system put much value on the stakeholder's communications are procedure's security which can satisfy both "Efficiency" and "Credibility" simultaneously. Especially, it is emphasized here that Risk Assessment need to be separated from Risk Management. This action is a valid means of credibility security throughout improving transparency. A number of nations and organizations have reformed the method of food management passing through reflection and examination of the prior National Food Safety Management since BSE occurred in Britain, 1996. FSA; Food Standard Agency, AFFSA, EFSA, BfR, and FSC are Risk Assessment Organization functionally separated from Risk Management Organization, JECFA, JMCFA, JMPR, JEMRA in Codex charge Risk Assessment internationally. In case of advanced countries excluding several those such as The U.S. and so forth, though these Risk Assessment Organizations are either separated functionally within Risk Management Organization or operated as apart organ, common factors are in which it has independence as Science Base. While securing independence of Risk Assessment Function, it is a tendency Risk Management should be functionally unified into efficiency as well. Though Germany constructs integral Risk Management System of diverse ways according to social and political conditions of each country such as GFOCP, DVFA, SNFA, CFIS and AQIS, there is a key word in the center, "Securing efficiency of Food Safety Management". However our nation has a representative plural；diversified system with The U.S., we took a step forward for unification as empowering policy's generalization；adjustment and Risk Assessment Function by means of enacting the "Food Safety Fundamental Law" in 2008 and establishing the "Food Safety Policy Commission" with private and governmental sectors in the Prime Minister's office. Even though the unification of Risk Management hereby increased, there is the lack of strengthening function of Risk Assessment and securing independence. It needs to be required for the professional committee in Food Safety Policy Commission to develop as a exclusive office of Risk Assessment by separating from a policy decision. Administrative Branches should reinforce feeble functions such as fundamental investigation；research for carrying out Risk Assessment with securing efficiency throughout reassessment of prior Risk Management Means.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.241-263
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• 2008

Within any income approach, a discount rate is used to convert some projected free cash flow to its presented value. In case of valuing companies, the most frequently used discount rate is the weighted average cost of capital(WACC) at the aggregate level. But technology valuation is different to discounting aggregate corporate cash flow since it is concerned about individual Intellectual property. Therefore, blindly applying standard discount rate such as WACC in technology valuation is unlikely to lead to the right result. The primary focus of this paper is to establish the structure of discount rate for technology valuation and to suggest the method of estimation. To determine an appropriate discount rate for technology valuation, the level of technology risk, market risk and competitive risk should be included in the structure of discount rate. This paper suggests the build-up model which consists of three components as a expansion of the CAPM. It includes (1) a risk-free rate of return, (2) general market risk premium and beta and (3) intellectual property risk premium related to technology risk and specific target market risk. However, there is no specific check list for examining the intellectual property risk until now and no specific method for quantifying its risk into risk premium. This paper developed the 10 element to determine the level of the intellectual property risk and applied estimation function such as linear function, natural log function and exponential function to transform the level of risk into risk premium. The limitation of this paper is that the range of intellectual property risk premium is inferred based on the information of foreign and domestic valuation agency. Finally, this paper explored the development of an intellectual property discount rate for technology valuation and presented the method in order to quantify the intellectual property risk premium.

• Physical Therapy Korea
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.140-148
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• 2020

Background: Scapular winging (SW) could be caused by tightness or weakness of the periscapular muscles. Although data mining techniques are useful in classifying or predicting risk of musculoskeletal disorder, predictive models for risk of musculoskeletal disorder using the results of clinical test or quantitative data are scarce. Objects: This study aimed to (1) investigate the difference between young women with and without SW, (2) establish a predictive model for presence of SW, and (3) determine the cutoff value of each variable for predicting the risk of SW using the decision tree method. Methods: Fifty young female subjects participated in this study. To classify the presence of SW as the outcome variable, scapular protractor strength, elbow flexor strength, shoulder internal rotation, and whether the scapula is in the dominant or nondominant side were determined. Results: The classification tree selected scapular protractor strength, shoulder internal rotation range of motion, and whether the scapula is in the dominant or nondominant side as predictor variables. The classification tree model correctly classified 78.79% (p = 0.02) of the training data set. The accuracy obtained by the classification tree on the test data set was 82.35% (p = 0.04). Conclusion: The classification tree showed acceptable accuracy (82.35%) and high specificity (95.65%) but low sensitivity (54.55%). Based on the predictive model in this study, we suggested that 20% of body weight in scapular protractor strength is a meaningful cutoff value for presence of SW.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1489-1492
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• 2016

Background: Although there are no biomarkers that are routinely used in endometrial cancer (EC) management, many studies have found that serum human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is superior to cancer antigen 125 (CA125) in the detection of EC. The correlation of HE4 with two prognostic factors for EC, primary tumor diameter (PTD) and depth of myometrial invasion (DMI) may be useful in identifying EC patients at high risk of lymphatic dissemination. Objective: To evaluate the correlation of serum HE4 with PTD and DMI in patients with EC. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 70 EC patients who were scheduled for elective surgery at Rajavithi Hospital between 1st September 2013 and 30th May 2014. Preoperative serum levels of HE4 and CA125 were investigated, and then gross measurement of PTD was taken and postoperative pathologic slides were reviewed for DMI including histologic types, grading and staging. Results: Preoperative serum HE4 levels were strongly correlated with PTD (r=0.65, p<0.001) and moderately correlated with DMI (r=0.46, p<0.001). Moreover, serum HE4 levels were significantly elevated in EC patients with PTD >2 cm (p<0.001) and DMI > 50% (p=0.004). The performance of serum HE4 in identifying EC patients at low risk and high risk of lymph node metastasis was significantly better than that of CA125 (AUC 0.88 vs. 0.65, p=0.003). At an optimal cut-off value of 70 pM/L, serum HE4 had a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 80.0%. Conclusions: In EC patients, preoperative serum HE4 is significantly correlated with PTD and DMI. Serum HE4 levels could be useful in identifying endometrial cancer patients at high risk of lymphatic spread who would benefit from systemic lymphadenectomy at the cut-off value of 70 pM/L.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.1999-2002
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• 2012

Background: DNA polymerase is a single-copy gene that is considered to be part of the DNA repair machinery in mammalian cells. The encoded enzyme is a key to the base excision repair (BER) pathway. It is evident that pol beta has mutations in various cancer samples, but little is known about ovarian cancer. Aim: Identification of any variant form of $pol{\beta}$ cDNA in ovarian carcinoma and determination of association between the polymorphism and ovarian cancer risk in Indian patients. We used 152 samples to isolate and perform RT-PCR and sequencing. Results: A variant of polymerase beta (deletion of exon 4-6 and 11-13, comprising of amino acid 63-123, and 208-304) is detected in heterozygous condition. The product size of this variant is 532 bp while wild type pol beta is 1 kb. Our study of association between the variant and the endometrioid type shows that it is a statistically significant factor for ovarian cancer [OR=31.9 (4.12-246.25) with p<0.001]. The association between variant and stage IV patients further indicated risk (${\chi}^2$ value of 29.7, and OR value 6.77 with 95% CI values 3.3-13.86). The correlation study also confirms the association data (Pearson correlation values for variant/stage IV and variant/endometrioid of 0.44 and 0.39). Conclusion: Individuals from this part of India with this type of variant may be at risk of stage IV, endometrioid type ovarian carcinoma.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1065-1074
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• 2011

During several decades, many researchers in the field of finance have studied Value at Risk (VaR) to measure the market risk. VaR indicates the worst loss over a target horizon such that there is a low, pre-specified probability that the actual loss will be larger (Jorion, 2006, p.106). In this paper, we compare conditional copula method with two conventional VaR forecasting methods based on simple moving average and exponentially weighted moving average for measuring the risk of the portfolio, consisting of two domestic stock indices. Through real data analysis, we conclude that the conditional copula method can improve the accuracy of portfolio VaR forecasting in the presence of high kurtosis and strong correlation in the data.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.43-49
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• 2021

Purpose: This study attempted to examine the risk of stock price plunge according to the firm's management strategy. Prospector firms value innovation and have high uncertainties due to rapid growth. There is a possibility of lowering the quality of financial reporting in order to meet market expectations while withstanding the uncertainty of the results. In addition, managers of prospector firms enter into compensation contracts based on stock prices, thus creating an incentive to withhold negative information disclosure to the market. Prospector firms' information opacity and delays in disclosure of negative information are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices in the future. Research design, data and methodology: This study performed logistic analysis of KOSPI listed firms from 2014 to 2017. The independent variable is the strategic index, and is calculated by considering the six characteristics (R&D investment, efficiency, growth potential, marketing, organizational stability, capital intensity) of the firm. The higher the total score, the more it is a firm that takes a prospector strategy, and the lower the total score, the more it is a firm that pursues a defender strategy. In the case of the dependent variable, a value of 1 was assigned when there was a week that experienced a sharp decline in stock prices, and 0 when it was not. Results: It was found that the more firms adopting the prospector strategy, the higher the risk of a sharp decline in the stock price. This is interpreted as the reason that firms pursuing a prospector strategy do not disclose negative information by being conscious of market investors while carrying out venture projects. In other words, compensation contracts based on uncertainty in the outcome of prospector firms and stock prices increase the opacity of information and are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices. Conclusions: This study's analysis of the impact of management strategy on the stock price plunge suggests that investors need to consider the strategy that firms take in allocating resources. Firms need to be cautious in examining the impact of a particular strategy on the capital markets and implementing that strategy.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.379-396
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the rational payoff from the standpoint of foreign investors and the government when the government issues GDP-linked bonds to foreign investors. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the prices of 12 types of GDP-linked bond structures, which are classified according to the calculation cycle of the rate of change of linked GDP, the currency issued, and whether options are embedded, were evaluated. The Fama-French 3-factor model and the GMM-SDF model are used in the asset pricing model, and domestic and overseas investors used different basis assets. Findings - The KRW premium for US investors is estimated to be 43bp on a quarterly basis and 30bp on an annual basis, respectively, meaning that when the government issues bonds in KRW, the interest rate paid to US investors will be reduced by 30bp to 160bp (annually converted). Using the Fama-French 3 factor model, the KRW premium is the risk premium for the US market beta, meaning that if US investors do not intend to invest in US market beta, it is advantageous to receive an additional interest rate by investing in USD-denominated GDP-linked bonds. Korea's GDP- linked bond give US investors diversified investment utility, so they are willing to incorporate Korean GDP-linked bonds even if -150bp of interest is deducted from the structure issued to Korean investors. And as a result of estimating the value of the option through the GDP-linked bond with options that provides a floor for guaranteeing the principal, the value of the option linked to the annual GDP issued in dollars was the lowest. Research implications or Originality - Issuing dollar-denominated GDP-linked bonds linked to annual GDP with the option of guaranteeing the principal by the government is a way to increase investment opportunities for US investors and achieve financial stability of the government.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.1203-1212
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• 2021

Objective: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy and complications of cone-beam CT-guided percutaneous transthoracic needle biopsy (PTNB) of juxtaphrenic lesions and identify the risk factors for diagnostic failure and complications. Materials and Methods: In total, 336 PTNB procedures for lung lesions (mean size ± standard deviation [SD], 4.3 ± 2.3 cm) abutting the diaphragm in 326 patients (189 male and 137 female; mean age ± SD, 65.2 ± 11.4 years) performed between January 2010 and December 2014 were included. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the PTNB procedures for the diagnosis of malignancy were measured based on the intention-to-diagnose principle. The risk factors for diagnostic failures and complications were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Results: The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 92.7% (293/316), 91.3% (219/240), 91.4% (74/81), 96.9% (219/226), and 77.9% (74/95), respectively. There were 23 diagnostic failures (7.3%), and lesion sizes ≤ 2 cm (p = 0.045) were the only significant risk factors for diagnostic failure. Complications occurred in 98 cases (29.2%), including 89 cases of pneumothorax (26.5%) and 7 cases of hemoptysis (2.1%). The multivariable analysis showed that old age (> 65 years) (p = 0.002), lesion size of ≤ 2 cm (p = 0.003), emphysema (p = 0.006), and distance from the pleura to the target lesion (> 2 cm) (p = 0.010) were significant risk factors for complications. Conclusion: The diagnostic accuracy of cone-beam CT-guided PTNB of juxtaphrenic lesions for malignancy was fairly high, and the target lesion size was the only significant predictor of diagnostic failure. Complications of cone-beam CT-guided PTNB of juxtaphrenic lesions occurred at a reasonable rate.