• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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Optimum Radiotherapy Schedule for Uterine Cervical Cancer based-on the Detailed Information of Dose Fractionation and Radiotherapy Technique (처방선량 및 치료기법별 치료성적 분석 결과에 기반한 자궁경부암 환자의 최적 방사선치료 스케줄)

  • Cho, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyun-Chang;Suh, Chang-Ok;Lee, Chang-Geol;Keum, Ki-Chang;Cho, Nam-Hoon;Lee, Ik-Jae;Shim, Su-Jung;Suh, Yang-Kwon;Seong, Jinsil;Kim, Gwi-Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2005
  • Background: The best dose-fractionation regimen of the definitive radiotherapy for cervix cancer remains to be clearly determined. It seems to be partially attributed to the complexity of the affecting factors and the lack of detailed information on external and intra-cavitary fractionation. To find optimal practice guidelines, our experiences of the combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-ICBT) were reviewed with detailed information of the various treatment parameters obtained from a large cohort of women treated homogeneously at a single institute. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 743 cervical cancer patients (Stage IB 198, IIA 77, IIB 364, IIIA 7, IIIB 89 and IVA 8) treated by radiotherapy alone, between 1990 and 1996. A total external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose of $23.4\~59.4$ Gy (Median 45.0) was delivered to the whole pelvis. High-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IBT) was also peformed using various fractionation schemes. A Midline block (MLB) was initiated after the delivery of $14.4\~43.2$ Gy (Median 36.0) of EBRT in 495 patients, while In the other 248 patients EBRT could not be used due to slow tumor regression or the huge initial bulk of tumor. The point A, actual bladder & rectal doses were individually assessed in all patients. The biologically effective dose (BED) to the tumor ($\alpha/\beta$=10) and late-responding tissues ($\alpha/\beta$=3) for both EBRT and HDR-ICBT were calculated. The total BED values to point A, the actual bladder and rectal reference points were the summation of the EBRT and HDR-ICBT. In addition to all the details on dose-fractionation, the other factors (i.e. the overall treatment time, physicians preference) that can affect the schedule of the definitive radiotherapy were also thoroughly analyzed. The association between MD-BED $Gy_3$ and the risk of complication was assessed using serial multiple logistic regression models. The associations between R-BED $Gy_3$ and rectal complications and between V-BED $Gy_3$ and bladder complications were assessed using multiple logistic regression models after adjustment for age, stage, tumor size and treatment duration. Serial Coxs proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risks of recurrence due to MD-BED $Gy_{10}$, and the treatment duration. Results: The overall complication rate for RTOG Grades $1\~4$ toxicities was $33.1\%$. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate for ail 743 patients was $83\%$. The midline cumulative BED dose, which is the sum of external midline BED and HDR-ICBT point A BED, ranged from 62.0 to 121.9 $Gy_{10}$ (median 93.0) for tumors and from 93.6 to 187.3 $Gy_3$ (median 137.6) for late responding tissues. The median cumulative values of actual rectal (R-BED $Gy_3$) and bladder Point BED (V-BED $Gy_3$) were 118.7 $Gy_3$ (range $48.8\~265.2$) and 126.1 $Gy_3$ (range: $54.9\~267.5$), respectively. MD-BED $Gy_3$ showed a good correlation with rectal (p=0.003), but not with bladder complications (p=0.095). R-BED $Gy_3$ had a very strong association (p=<0.0001), and was more predictive of rectal complications than A-BED $Gy_3$. B-BED $Gy_3$ also showed significance in the prediction of bladder complications in a trend test (p=0.0298). No statistically significant dose-response relationship for pelvic control was observed. The Sandwich and Continuous techniques, which differ according to when the ICR was inserted during the EBRT and due to the physicians preference, showed no differences in the local control and complication rates; there were also no differences in the 3 vs. 5 Gy fraction size of HDR-ICBT. Conclusion: The main reasons optimal dose-fractionation guidelines are not easily established is due to the absence of a dose-response relationship for tumor control as a result of the high-dose gradient of HDR-ICBT, individual differences In tumor responses to radiation therapy and the complexity of affecting factors. Therefore, in our opinion, there is a necessity for individualized tailored therapy, along with general guidelines, in the definitive radiation treatment for cervix cancer. This study also demonstrated the strong predictive value of actual rectal and bladder reference dosing therefore, vaginal gauze packing might be very Important. To maintain the BED dose to less than the threshold resulting in complication, early midline shielding, the HDR-ICBT total dose and fractional dose reduction should be considered.

Epidemiological Studies of Clonorchiasis. - I. Current Status and Natural Transition of the Endemicity of Clonorchis sinensis in Gimhae Gun and Delta, a High Endemic area in Korea (간흡충증(肝吸虫症)의 역학(疫學) - I. 고도유행지(高度流行地) 김해지방(金海地方)에 있어서의 간흡충감염(肝吸虫感染)의 현황(現況)과 자연추이(自然推移))

  • Kim, D.C.;Lee, O.Y.;Lee, J.S.;Ahn, J.S.;Chang, Y.M;Son, S.C.;Moon, I.S.
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.44-65
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    • 1983
  • As a part of the epidemiological studies of clonorchiasis, this study was conducted to evaluate the current endemicity and the natural transition of the Clonorchis infection in Gimhae Gun and delta area a high endemic area in Korea in recent years, prior to the introduction of praziquantel which will eventually influence the status of the prevalence. The data obtained in this study in 1983 were evaluated for natural transition of the infection in comparison with those obtained 16 years ago in 1967 by the author(Kim, 1974). The areas of investigation, villages and schools surveyed, methods and techniques used in this study were the same as in 1967, except for the contents of the questionnaire for raw freshwater fish consumption by the local inhabitants. 1) The prevalence rate of clonorchiasis in the general population of the villages was 48.1% on the average out of a total of 484 persons examined. The average of those of the riverside-delta area was 65.2% and 43.0% in the inland area. Among the schoolchildren, the prevalence rate was 8.2% on the average out of a total of 1,423 examined. By area, the prevalence rate was 10.8% in the riverside delta area and 2.8% in the inland area. By sex, difference in the prevalence was seen only in the inhabitants of the inland area showing 52.4% in the male and 33.5% in the female. 2) In the natural transition of the infection, the prevalence rate among the inhabitants has decreased from 68.8% in 1967 to 48.1% in 1983, and in the schoolchildren from 56.4% in 1967 to 8.2% in 1983. The reduction rate was higher in the riverside-delta area than in the inland area. 3) In the prevalence rate by age, 11.9% was first seen in the 5-9 age group and the rate gradually increased up to 75.0% in the 50-59 age group. By sex, the rate was higher in the male than in the female in the 20-29 age group and over. 4) In the natural transition of the prevalence rate by age, the reduction rate of the infection during the past 16 years was greater in the younger age groups up to the 40-49 age group and reached the same level in the age group 50-59. Reduction was seen again in the age group over 60s. By sex, the reduction rate was greater in the female than in the male in the 20-29 age group and over. By area, the reduction rate was greater in the riverside delta area than in the inland area, particularly in the young age groups. 5) In the intensity of the infection among the cases, the mean egg out-put per mg feces per infected cases(EPmg) in the inhabitants was 6.3. EPmg of those of the river-side-delta area was 15.4 and that of the in-land was 2.8. On the other hand, in the schoolchildren, EPmg was 3.2, and no difference was seen between the two areas, the river-side-delta area and the inland area. 6) In the transition of the intensity of the infection by area, EPmg among the inhabitants inexplically increased from 7.8 in 1967 to 15.4 in 1983. This was probably caused by uneven specimen collection in the process of sampling the population. EPmg of the inhabitants in the inland area and those of the schoolchildren of both riverside delta and inland areas showed a similar decrease in the past 16 years. 7) The intensity of the infection by age showed a relatively low level in the 20-29 age group and below, and EPmg 5.1-9.5 was seen in the 30-39 age group and over. Sex, Epmg was 5.8 in the male and 4.7 the female. By in 8) In the transition of the intensity of the infection, EPmg decreased from 6.2 in 1967 to 5.4 in 1983. By age, in contrast to the figures of 1967 in which EPmg gradually increased with some fluctuation from 1.1 in the 0-4 age group to peak 10.5 in the 50-59 age group, in 1983 lower intensity of the infection was seen in the age group from 10-14 to 20-29 with the EPmg range of 0.6-2.7. 9) In the distribution of the clonorchiasis cases by the range of EPmg value, 43.2% of the cases were in 0.1 0.9 and 34.6% in 1.0-4.9. As a whole by cumulative percent, 44.6% of them were under 0.9 as light infection and 86.1% of them under 9.9 up to moderate infection. By sex, no difference was seen in Epmg. 10) In the transition of the distribution by the range of Epmg, the cases were distributed up to the range 80.0-99.9 in 1967 and to 60.0-79.9 in 1983. By cumulative percent, in the range of 0.1-0.9 and less, light infection, 34.3% of them were distributed in 1967 and 44.6% in 1983 with about 10% increase. In the range of 5.0-9.9 and less, up to moderate infection, 83.2% in 1967 and 86.1% in 1983 of the cases were seen, respectively. 11) The practice of raw freshwater fish consumption among the inhabitants seems to have decreased in recent years. Those who admitted to raw freshwater fish consumption in the last two years among the infected inhabitants were 59.3%, although 86.8% of them professed to have experience with raw freshwater fish consumption. 31.7% of those who have had experience of the raw freshwater fish consumption denied any further consumption in recent years. From an interview of 543 school-children, 24.1% of them admitted to an experience of raw freshwater fish consumption. However, those who have practised in the past two years comprized 17.9%. Those who denied raw freshwater fish consumption in recent years among those who had such experience were 26.0% out of 131 interviewed. The rate of raw freshwater fish consumption in both inhabitants and schoolchildren were higher in the male than in the female. On the contrary, the rate of those who did not practise in recent years among those who had experience of raw freshwater fish consumption was higher in the female than in the male. 12) The major reason for the reduction of raw freshwater fish consumption among the local inhabitants was the risk of the fluke infection. However, it has become apparent that such change of taste has resulted from water pollution impact which has affected throughout the areas of the freshwater systems in this locality since last several years. 13) In animal survey, Clonorchis infection was seen in 14.8% of 88 dogs examined and 3.7% of 27 house rats examined. It was noted that populations of dogs and cats have increased in the villages surveyed. Although the prevalence rate was lower in the present survey than those of 1967, the significance of the animals as the reservoir host has not changed. 14) Prevalence rate of Clonorchis infection by cercariae in the first intermediate host, Parafossarulus manchouricus, was 0.6% out of 517 snails examined. The infection rate was lower in comparison with 2.3% out of 2,124 examined in 1967. Moreover, sharp decreases in number and distribution of the intermediate host snails in many watershed areas of the huge freshwater systems in this locality seemed to reduce transmission of Clonorchis in connection with the intermediate host stage of its life cycle. 15) Clonorchis infection in the second intermediate fish hosts was relatively low. The mean number of Clonorchis metacercaria per fish in Pseudorasbora parva was 517 in 1983, whereas it was 1943 in 1968 through 1969. Environmental water pollution has also caused the decreased fish population density in these areas, and this has also apparently affected to the practice of raw freshwater fish consumption among the local inhabitants. 16) In conclusion, endemicity of Clonorchis infection in Gimhae Gum and delta area of the Nagdong River has sharply decreased during the past 16 years. The major cause of the regressive transition of the infection was the water pollution of the land water systems of this locality. The pollution has upset the ecosystems comprizing of the intermediate hosts of Clonorchis in many areas, and also affected to a significant extent to the discontinuance of the local inhabitants for raw freshwater fish consumption.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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