• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL FACTORS AFFECTING DENGUE EPIDEMICS USING GIS IN THAILAND

  • Nakhapakorn Kanchana;Tripatht Nitin;Nualchawee Kaew;Kusanagt Michiro;Pakpien Preeda
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.774-777
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    • 2005
  • Dengue Fever(DF) and Dengue haemorrhagic fever(DHF) has become a major international public health concern. Dengue Fever(DF) and Dengue haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is also still the major health problem of Thailand, although many campaigns against it have been conducted throughout the country. GIS and Remotely Sensed data are used to evaluate the relationships between socio-spatial, environmental factors/indicators and the incidences of viral diseases. The aim of the study is to identify the spatial risk factors in Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Sukhothai province, Thailand using statistical, spatial and GIS Modelling. Preliminary results demonstrated that physical factors derived from remotely sensed data could indicate variation in physical risk factors affecting DF and DHF. The present study emphasizes the potential of remotely sensed data and GIS in spatial factors affecting Dengue Risk Zone analysis. The relationship between land cover and the cases of incidence of DF and DHF by information value method revaluated that highest information value is obtained for Built-up area. A negative relationship was observed for the forest area. The relations between climate data and cases of incidence have shown high correlation with rainfall factors in rainy season but poor correlation with temperature and relative humidity. The present study explores the potential of remotely sensed data and GIS in spatial analysis of factors affecting Dengue epidemic, strong spatial analysis tools of GIS. The capabilities of GIS for analyst spatial factors influencing risk zone has made it possible to apply spatial statistical analysis in Disease risk zone.

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Seismic risk investigation for reinforced concrete buildings in Antalya, Turkey

  • Kepenek, Engin;Korkmaz, Kasim A.;Gencel, Ziya
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2020
  • Turkey is located in one of the most seismically active regions of in Europe. The majority of the population living in big cities are at high seismic risk due to insufficient structural resistance of the existing buildings. Such a seismic risk brings the need for a comprehensive seismic evaluation based on the risk analysis in Turkey. Determining the seismic resistance level of existing building stock against the earthquakes is the first step to reduce the damages in a possible earthquake. Recently in January 2020, the Elazig earthquake brought the importance of the issue again in the public. However, the excessive amount of building stock, labor, and resource problems made the implementation phase almost impossible and revealed the necessity to carry out alternative studies on this issue. This study aims for a detailed investigation of residential buildings in Antalya, Turkey. The approach proposed here can be considered an improved state of building survey methods previously identified in Turkey's Design Code. Antalya, Turkey's fifth most populous city, with a population over 2.5 Million, was investigated as divided into sub-regions to understand the vulnerability, and a threshold value found for the study area. In this study, 26,610 reinforced concrete buildings between 1 to 7 stories in Antalya were examined by using the rapid visual assessment method. A specific threshold value for the city of Antalya was determined with the second level examination and statistical methods carried out in the determined sub-region. With the micro zonation process, regions below the threshold value are defined as the priority areas that need to be examined in detail. The developed methodology can be easily calibrated for application in other cities and can be used to determine new threshold values for those cities.

A method for quantitative measuring the degree of damage by personal information leakage (개인 정보 노출에 대한 정량적 위험도 분석 방안)

  • Kim, Pyong;Lee, Younho;Khudaybergenov, Timur
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.395-410
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    • 2015
  • This research defines the degree of the threat caused by the leakage of personal information in a quantitative way. The proposed definition classifies the individual items in a personal data, then assigns a risk value to each item. The proposed method considers the increase of the risk by the composition of the multiple items. We also deals with various attack scenarios, where the attackers seek different types of personal information. The concept of entropy applies to associate the degree of the personal information exposed with the total risk value. In our experiment, we measured the risk value of the Facebook users with their public profiles. The result of the experiment demonstrates that they are most vulnerable against stalker attacks among four possible attacks with the personal information.

MiR-34b/c rs4938723 Polymorphism Significantly Decreases the Risk of Digestive Tract Cancer: Meta-analysis

  • Ji, Tian-Xing;Zhi, Cheng;Guo, Xue-Guang;Zhou, Qiang;Wang, Guo-Qiang;Chen, Bo;Ma, Fei-Fei
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.6099-6104
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    • 2015
  • Background: Previous studies investigating the association between miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism and cancer risk showed inconclusive. Here, we performed meta-analysis to investigate the association between miR- 34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism and digestive cancer risk. Materials and Methods: Literature database including PubMed, OVID, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for publications concerning the association between the miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism and digestive cancer risk. Results: A total of 6 studies consisting of 3246 cases and 3568 controls were included in this meta-analysis. The combined analysis suggested the miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism significantly reduced digestive cancer risk under allelic model, homogeneous co-dominant model and recessive model (C vs T: OR=0.88, 95%CI=0.82-0.95, p-value=0.001; CC vs TT: OR =0.67, 95%CI=0.57-0.80, p-value=0.000; CC vs TT/TC: OR=0.68, 95%CI=0.58-0.80, p-value=0.000). Q-test and I2 test revealed no significant heterogeneity in all genotype comparisons. The Begger's funnel plot and Egger's test did not show significant publication bias. Conclusions: The current evidence supports the conclusion that the miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism decreases an individual's susceptibility to digestive cancers.

Fruit and Vegetable Intake in Relation to Prostate Cancer in Iranian Men: A Case-Control Study

  • Askari, Faezeh;Parizi, Mehdi Kardoust;Jessri, Mahsa;Rashidkhani, Bahram
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5223-5227
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    • 2014
  • Background: Findings of epidemiologic studies on the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and prostate cancer (PCa) risk have been inconclusive. We therefore examined the association between intake of fruits and vegetables and PCa risk in Iran. Materials and Methods: In this hospital based, case-control study, a total of 50 patients with PCa and 100 controls underwent face-to-face interviews. Regression analysis was used to examine the relation between fruit and vegetable intake and PCa risk. Results: A protective independent effect was observed for the highest tertile of total fruit and vegetable (OR: 0.33, CI: 0.04-0.30, p value<0.001), total fruit (OR: 0.30, CI: 0.06-0.4, p value=0.03) and total vegetable (OR: 0.31, CI: 0.02-0.21, p value<0.001) consumption. Within the group of fruits, a significant inverse association was observed for apple and pomegranate (p trends were 0.01 and 0.016, respectively). In the vegetable group, a significant inverse association was observed for tomatoes (p trend<0.001) and cabbage (p trend=0.021). Conclusions: The results of the present study suggested that fruits and vegetable intake might be negatively associated with PCa risk.

Role of Hyperinsulinemia in Increased Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Case Control Study from Kathmandu Valley

  • Pandeya, Dipendra Raj;Mittal, Ankush;Sathian, Brijesh;Bhatta, Bibek
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.1031-1033
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    • 2014
  • Aim: To investigate the effect of hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia on prostate cancer risk. Materials and Methods: This hospital based study was carried out using data retrieved from the register maintained in the Department of Biochemistry of a tertiary care hospital of Kathmandu, Nepal between $31^{st}$ December, 2011 and $31^{st}$ October, 2013. The variables collected were age, serum cholesterol, serum calcium, PSA, fasting blood glucose, serum insulin. Analysis was performed by descriptive statistics and testing of hypothesis using Excel 2003, R 2.8.0, Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for Windows Version 16.0 (SPSS Inc; Chicago, IL, USA) and the EPI Info 3.5.1 Windows Version. Results: Of the total 125 subjects enrolled in our present study, 25 cases were of PCa and 100 were healthy controls. The mean value of fasting plasma glucose was 95.5 mg/dl in cases of prostatic carcinoma and the mean value of fasting plasma insulin was $5.78{\mu}U/ml$ (p value: 0.0001*). The fasting insulin levels ${\mu}U/ml$ were categorized into the different ranges starting from ${\leq}2.75$, >2.75 to ${\leq}4.10$, >4.10 to ${\leq}6.10$, > $6.10{\mu}U/ml$. The maximum number of cases of prostatic carcinoma of fasting insulin levels falls in range of > $6.10{\mu}U/ml$. The highest insulin levels (> $6.10{\mu}U/ml$) were seen to be associated with an 2.55 fold risk of prostatic carcinoma when compared with fasting insulin levels of (< $2.75{\mu}U/ml$). Conclusions: Elevated fasting levels of serum insulin appear to be associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer.

Saddlepoint approximations for the risk measures of linear portfolios based on generalized hyperbolic distributions (일반화 쌍곡분포 기반 선형 포트폴리오 위험측도에 대한 안장점근사)

  • Na, Jonghwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.959-967
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    • 2016
  • Distributional assumptions on equity returns play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Elberlein and Keller (1995) investigated the distributional form of compound returns and found that some of standard assumptions can not be justified. Instead, Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) distribution fit the empirical returns with high accuracy. Hu and Kercheval (2007) also show that the normal distribution leads to VaR (Value at Risk) estimate that significantly underestimate the realized empirical values, while the GH distributions do not. We consider saddlepoint approximations to estimate the VaR and the ES (Expected Shortfall) which frequently encountered in finance and insurance as measures of risk management. We supposed GH distributions instead of normal ones, as underlying distribution of linear portfolios. Simulation results show the saddlepoint approximations are very accurate than normal ones.

A Risk Analysis Model Using VERT for R & D Project Management (R & D 프로젝트의 위험분석모형의 연구)

  • 황홍석
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 1995
  • Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

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The Analyzing Risk Factor of Big Data : Big Data Processing Perspective (빅데이터 처리 프로세스에 따른 빅데이터 위험요인 분석)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Kim, Chang-Jae;Lee, Nam-Yong
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2014
  • Recently, as value for practical use of big data is evaluated, companies and organizations that create benefit and profit are gradually increasing with application of big data. But specifical and theoretical study about possible risk factors as introduction of big data is not being conducted. Accordingly, the study extracts the possible risk factors as introduction of big data based on literature reviews and classifies according to big data processing, data collection, data storage, data analysis, analysis data visualization and application. Also, the risk factors have order of priority according to the degree of risk from the survey of experts. This study will make a chance that can avoid risks by bid data processing and preparation for risks in order of dangerous grades of risk.

Domestic Seismic Design Maps Based on Risk-Targeted Maximum- Considered Earthquakes (위험도기반 최대예상지진에 근거한 국내 내진설계 지도)

  • Shin, Dong Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2015
  • This study evaluates collapse probabilities of structures which are designed according to a domestic seismic design code, KBC2009. In evaluating their collapse probabilities, to do this, probabilistic distribution models for seismic hazard and structural capacity are required. In this paper, eight major cities in Korea are selected and the demand probabilistic distribution of each city is obtained from the uniform seismic hazard. The probabilistic distribution for the structural capacity is assumed to follow a underlying design philosophy implicitly defined in ASCE 7-10. With the assumptions, the structural collapse probability in 50 years is evaluated based on the concept of a risk integral. This paper then defines an mean value of the collapse probabilities in 50 years of the selected major cities as the target risk. Risk-targeted spectral accelerations are finally suggested by modifying a current mapped spectral acceleration to meet the target risk.