• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.405-415
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• 2010

To assess the possible collision risk between Mokpo Harbour Bridge, which is under construction, and passing vessels, we proposed Real-Time Bridge-Vessel Collision Model (RT-BVCM) in this paper. The mathematical model of RT-BVCM consists of the causation probability by the vessel aberrancy due to navigation environments, the geometric probability by the structural feature of a bridge relative to a ship size and, the failure probability by the ship collision track and the stopping distance which is not to come to a stop before hitting the obstacles. Then, the probabilistic mathematical model represented as risk index with the risk level from 1 to 5. The merit of the proposed model to the collision model proposed by AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) is that it can provide enough time to take adequate collision avoiding action. Through the simulation tests to the two kinds of test ships, 3,000 GT and 10,000 GT, it is cleary found that the proposed model can be used as a collision evaluation model to the passing vessel and Mokpo Harbour Bridge.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.5260-5275
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• 2019

In the process of constructing the traditional offensive and defensive game theory model, these are some shortages for considering the dynamic change of security risk problem. By analysing the critical indicators of the incomplete information game theory model, incomplete information attack and defense game theory model and the mathematical engineering method for solving Bayes-Nash equilibrium, the risk-averse income function for information assets is summarized as the problem of maximising the return of the equilibrium point. To obtain the functional relationship between the optimal strategy combination of the offense and defense and the information asset security probability and risk probability. At the same time, the offensive and defensive examples are used to visually analyse and demonstrate the incomplete information game and the Harsanyi conversion method. First, the incomplete information game and the Harsanyi conversion problem is discussed through the attack and defense examples and using the game tree. Then the strategy expression of incomplete information static game and the engineering mathematics method of Bayes-Nash equilibrium are given. After that, it focuses on the offensive and defensive game problem of unsafe information network based on risk aversion. The problem of attack and defense is obtained by the issue of maximizing utility, and then the Bayes-Nash equilibrium of offense and defense game is carried out around the security risk of assets. Finally, the application model in network security penetration and defense is analyzed by designing a simulation example of attack and defense penetration. The analysis results show that the constructed income function model is feasible and practical.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.959-967
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• 2016

Distributional assumptions on equity returns play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Elberlein and Keller (1995) investigated the distributional form of compound returns and found that some of standard assumptions can not be justified. Instead, Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) distribution fit the empirical returns with high accuracy. Hu and Kercheval (2007) also show that the normal distribution leads to VaR (Value at Risk) estimate that significantly underestimate the realized empirical values, while the GH distributions do not. We consider saddlepoint approximations to estimate the VaR and the ES (Expected Shortfall) which frequently encountered in finance and insurance as measures of risk management. We supposed GH distributions instead of normal ones, as underlying distribution of linear portfolios. Simulation results show the saddlepoint approximations are very accurate than normal ones.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.215-221
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• 2018

The structural design of offshore installations against explosions has been required to protect vital areas (e.g. control room, worker's area etc.) and minimize the damage from explosion accidents. Because the explosion accident will not only result in significant casualties and economic losses, but also cause serious pollution and damage to surrounding environment and coastal marine ecosystems. Over the past two decades, an incredible efforts was made to develop reliable methods to reduce and manage the explosion risk. Among the methods Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management (QRA&M) is the one of cutting-edge technologies. The explosion risk can be quantitatively assessed by the product of explosion frequency based on probability calculation and consequence analyzed using computer simulations, namely Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Finite Element Analysis (FEA). However to obtain reliable consequence analysis results by CFD and FEA, uncertainties associate with modeling and simulation are needed to be identified and validated by comparison with experimental data. Therefore, large-scaled explosion test procedure is developed in this study. And developed test procedure can be helpful to obtain precious test data for the validation of consequence analysis using computer simulations, and subsequently allow better assessment and management of explosion risks.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.145-155
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• 2016

Purpose: Radiation therapy targeting axilla and groin lymph nodes improves regional disease control in locally advanced and high-risk skin cancers. However, trials generally used conventional two-dimensional radiotherapy (2D-RT), contributing towards relatively high rates of side effects from treatment. The goal of this study is to determine if three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT), intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), or volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) may improve radiation delivery to the target while avoiding organs at risk in the clinical context of skin cancer regional nodal irradiation. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients with locally advanced/high-risk skin cancers underwent computed tomography simulation. The relevant axilla or groin planning target volumes and organs at risk were delineated using standard definitions. Paired t-tests were used to compare the mean values of several dose-volumetric parameters for each of the 4 techniques. Results: In the axilla, the largest improvement for 3D-CRT compared to 2D-RT was for homogeneity index (13.9 vs. 54.3), at the expense of higher lung $V_{20}$ (28.0% vs. 12.6%). In the groin, the largest improvements for 3D-CRT compared to 2D-RT were for anorectum $D_{max}$ (13.6 vs. 38.9 Gy), bowel $D_{200cc}$ (7.3 vs. 23.1 Gy), femur $D_{50}$ (34.6 vs. 57.2 Gy), and genitalia $D_{max}$ (37.6 vs. 51.1 Gy). IMRT had further improvements compared to 3D-CRT for humerus $D_{mean}$ (16.9 vs. 22.4 Gy), brachial plexus $D_5$ (57.4 vs. 61.3 Gy), bladder $D_5$ (26.8 vs. 36.5 Gy), and femur $D_{50}$ (18.7 vs. 34.6 Gy). Fewer differences were observed between IMRT and VMAT. Conclusion: Compared to 2D-RT and 3D-CRT, IMRT and VMAT had dosimetric advantages in the treatment of nodal regions of skin cancer patients.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.29-36
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• 2022

The prevalence of stress and depression among emotional workers is increasing due to the rapid increase in emotional labor and service workers. However, the current mental health management of emotional workers is difficult to consider the emotional response at the time of stress situations, and the existing mental health management is limited because the individual's base state is not reflected. In this study, we present mental healthcare digital twin solution technology, a personalized stress risk management solution. For mental health risk management due to emotional labor, a solution simulation is performed to accurately predict stress risk through synchronization/modeling of dynamic objects in virtual space by extracting individual stress risk factors such as emotional/physical response and environment into various modalities. It provides a mental healthcare digital twin solution for predicting personalized mental health risks that can be configured with modalities and objects tailored to the environment of emotional workers and improved according to user feedback.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.4 s.26
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• pp.80-90
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• 2005

Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.11 no.7
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• pp.627-635
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• 2017

Brachytherapy is generally performed in conjunction with external radiation therapy, and the treatment course is very complicated, which can lead to radiation accidents. In order to solve this problem, we designed the process map by applying the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method to the Brachytherapy and scored the risk priority number (RPN) for each treatment course based on this process map. The process map consisted of five steps, Patient consulting", "Brachytherapy simulation", "CT simulation", "Brachytherapy treatment planning" and "Treatment". In order to calculate the RPN, doctor, medical physicist, dose planners, therapist, and nurse participated in the study and evaluated occurrence, severity, and lack of detectability at each detail step. Overall, the process map is preceded by a patient identification procedure at each treatment stage, which can be mistaken for another patient, and a different treatment plan may be established to cause a radiation accident. As a result of evaluating the RPN for the detailed steps based on the process map, overall "Patient consulting" and "Brachytherapy treatment planning" step were evaluated as high risk. The nurses showed a tendency to be different from each other, and the nurses had a risk of 55 points or more for all the procedures except "Treatment", and the "Brachytherapy simulation" step was the highest with 88.8 points. Since the treatment stage differs somewhat for each medical institution performing radiotherapy, it is thought that the risk management should be performed intensively by preparing the process map for each institution and calculating the risk RPN.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2014.11a
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• pp.113-113
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• 2014

This study has been conducted for evaluation of qualitative/quantitative risk of HCNG filling station. In case of fire explosion occurred because of hydrogen, CNG, and HCNG leaking on same conditions, maximum overpressure was measured as 30kPa for hydrogen, 3.5kPa for HCNG, and 0.4kPa for CNG. The overpressure of HCNG was measured 7.75 times higher than that of CNG, but it was only 11.7% compared with hydrogen. When the explosion was occurred, in case of hydrogen, the measured influential distance of overpressure was 59m and radiant heat was 75m. In case of CNG, influential distance of overpressure was 89m and radiant heat was 144m would be estimated. In case of 30% HCNG that was blended with hydrogen and CNG, influential distance of overpressure was 81m and radiant heat was 130m were measured. As the explosion occurred with the same sized container that had 350bar for hydrogen and 250bar of CNG and HCNG, the damage distance that explosive overpressure and radiant heat influenced CNG was seen as the highest. HCNG that was placed between CNG and hydrogen tended to be seen as more similar with CNG.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.2 s.6
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• pp.90-97
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• 2001

The paper considers non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate. The method(referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation' method) interprets cost data indirectly, to generate a probability distribution for total costs from the deficient elemental experience cost distribution. The Monte Carlo method is popular method for incorporating uncertainty relative to parameter values in risk assessment modelling. Non-deterministic methods, they are here presented as possibly effective foundation on which to risk management in cost estimating. The objectives of this research is to develop a computerized algorithms to forecast the probabilistic total construction cost and the elemental work cost at the planning stage.