• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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Heating Characteristics of Carbon Fiber Polyimide-Coated by Electrophoretic Deposition (전기영동증착법으로 폴리이미드를 코팅한 탄소섬유의 발열 특성 연구)

  • Geon-Joo Jeong;Tae-Yoo Kim;Seung-Boo Jung;Kwang-Seok Kim
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.90-94
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    • 2023
  • Carbon fiber(CF) with excellent thermal conductivity and electrical conductivity is attracting attention as an alternative material because metal heating elements have problems such as high heat loss and fire risk. However, since CF is oxidized and disconnected at about 200℃ or higher, the application of heating elements is limited, and CF heating elements in the form of vacuum tubes are currently used in some commercial heaters. In this work, polyimide(PI) with high heat resistance was coated on the surface of carbon fiber by electrophoretic deposition to prevent oxidation of CF in the atmosphere without using a vacuum tube, and the coating thickness and heat resistance were investigated according to the applied voltage. The heater made by connecting the PI-coated CF heating elements in series showed stable heating characteristics up to 292℃, which was similar to the heating temperature result of the heat transfer simulation. The PI layer coated by the electrophoretic deposition method is effective in preventing oxidation of CF at 200℃ or higher and is expected to be applicable to various heating components such as secondary batteries, aerospace, and electric vehicles that require heat stability.

A Study on the Operation for Dynamic Bus-Only Hard Shoulder Running on Expressway (고속도로 동적 갓길버스전용차로제 운영방안에 관한 연구)

  • Eon-kyo Shin;Ju-hyun Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.108-126
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, the dynamic hard shoulder running for bus only (HSRFBO) was presented to solve the traffic congestion by increase the capacity in chronic congested sections of highways, and a simulation was performed to evaluate the comparison with the current hard shoulder running for all vehicles(HSRFAV) and median bus only lane and HSR(MBOLHSR). According to the evaluation results, it was evaluated to be more advantageous in terms of traffic flow and safety than the current HSRFAV. In addition, the speed of passing buses is slightly reduced compared to the MBOHSR, but the speed of entering and exiting buses is increased and the speed of buses and cars is greatly improved. Therefore It was analyzed that the efficiency of transport personnel was also improved. In particular, it is expected that traffic flow will be stabilized as the difference in speed between passenger cars and buses will be greatly reduced, and violations of exclusive bus lanes by passenger cars will be greatly reduced. In addition, the operation time of HSR is greatly reduced, so that the original function of the shoulder lane can be maintained as much as possible. As a result, it was analyzed that the risk of accidents was significantly reduced when operating HSRFBO compared to when operating MBOHSR, and cross-conflicts with high accident severity did not occur.

Analysis of the Runoff Characteristics of Small Mountain Basins Using Rainfall-Runoff Model_Danyang1gyo in Chungbuk (강우-유출모형을 활용한 소규모 산지 유역의 유출특성 분석_충북 단양1교)

  • Hyungjoon Chang;Hojin Lee;Kisoon Park;Seonggoo Kim
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2023
  • In this study, runoff characteristics analysis was conducted as a basic research to establish a forecasting and warning system for flood risk areas in small mountainous basins in South Korea. The Danyang 1 Bridge basin located in Danyang-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do was selected as the study basin, and the watershed characteristic factors were calculated using Q-GIS based on the digital elevation model (DEM) of the basin. In addition, nine heavy rainfall events were selected from 2020 to 2023 using hydrometeorological data provided by the National Water Resources Management Comprehensive Information System. HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model was used to analyze the runoff characteristics of small mountainous basins, and rainfall-runoff model simulation was performed by reflecting 9 heavy rainfall events and calculated basin characteristic factors. Based on the rainfall-runoff model, parameter optimization was performed for six heavy rain events with large error rates among the simulated events, and the appropriate parameter range for the Danyang 1 Bridge basin, a small mountainous basin, was calculated to be 0.8 to 3.4. The results of this study will be utilized as foundational data for establishing flood forecasting and warning systems in small mountainous basin, and further research will be conducted to derive the range of parameters according to basin characteristics.

Numerical simulation of flood water level in a small mountain stream considering cross-section blocking and riverbed changes - A case study of Shingwangcheon stream in Pohang before and after Typhoon Hinnamnor flood (단면 폐색과 하상 변화를 고려한 산지 중소하천의 홍수위 수치모의 - 태풍 힌남노 전후의 포항 신광천을 사례로 -)

  • Lee, Chanjoo;Jang, Eun-kyung;Ahn, Sunggi;Kang, Woochul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.837-844
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    • 2023
  • Small and medium-sized mountain rivers that flow through steep, confined valleys carry large amounts of coarse-grained sediment and woody debris during floods. It causes an increase in flood water level by aggrading the riverbed and the cross-section blockage due to driftwood accumulation during flooding. However, the existing flood level calculation in the river basic plan does not consider these changes. In this study, using the Typhoon Hinnamnor flood in September 2022 as an example, we performed numerical simulations using the HEC-RAS model, taking into account the blockage of a cross-section at the bridge and changes in riverbed elevation that occurred during floods, and analyzed the flood level to predict flood risk. This study's results show that flooding occurs if more than 30% of the cross-section is blocked. The rise of flood water levels corresponds to that of the riverbed due to sediment deposition. These results can be used as basic data to prevent and effectively manage flood damage and contribute to establishing flood defense measures that consider actual phenomena.

Radioactivation Analysis of Concrete Shielding Wall of Cyclotron Room Using Monte Carlo Simulation (PET 사이클로트론 가동에 따른 콘크리트 차폐벽의 방사화)

  • Jang, Donggun;Lee, Dongyeon;Kim, Junghoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.335-341
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    • 2017
  • Cyclotron is a device that accelerates positrons or neutrons, and is used as a facility for making radioactive drugs having short half-lives. Such radioactive drugs are used for positron emission tomography (PET), which is a medical apparatus. In order to make radioactive drugs from a cyclotron, a nuclear reaction must occur between accelerated positrons and a target. After the reaction, unncessary neutrons are produced. In the present study, radioactivation generated from the collisions between the concrete shielding wall and the positrons and neutrons produced from the cyclotron is investigated. We tracked radioactivated radioactive isotopes by conducting experiments using FLUKA, a type of Monte Carlo simulation. The properties of the concrete shielding wall were comparatively analyzed using materials containing impurities at ppm level and materials that do not contain impurities. The generated radioactivated nuclear species were comparatively analyzed based on the exposure dose affecting human body as a criterion, through RESRAD-Build. The results of experiments showed that the material containing impurities produced a total of 14 radioactive isotopes, and $^{60}Co$(72.50%), $^{134}Cs$(16.75%), $^{54}Mn$(5.60%), $^{152}Eu$(4.08%), $^{154}Eu$(1.07%) accounted for 99.9% of the total dose according to the analysis having the exposure dose affecting human body as criterion. The $^{60}Co$ nuclear species showed the greatest risk of radiation exposure. The material that did not contain impurities produced a total of five nuclear species. Among the five nuclear species, 54Mn accounted for 99.9% of the exposure dose. There is a possibility that Cobalt can be generated by inducive nuclear reaction of positrons through the radioactivation process of $^{56}Fe$ instead of impurities. However, there was no radioactivation because only few positrons reached the concrete wall. The results of comparative analysis on exposure dose with respect to the presence of impurities indicated that the presence of impurities caused approximately 98% higher exposure dose. From this result, the main cause of radioactivation was identified as the small ppm-level amount of impurities.

Analysis on the Decrease of Planning Target Volume in the Case of Lung Radiation Surgery with the Application of Respiratory Gated Radiotherpy Method (폐암 환자의 방사선수술 시 호흡연동 방사선치료 방법의 적용을 통한 계획용표적체적 감소 효과 분석)

  • Song, Ju-Young;Nah, Byung-Sik;Chung, Woong-Ki;Ahn, Sung-Ja;Nam, Taek-Keun;Yoon, Mee-Sun;Jung, Jae-Uk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.263-268
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    • 2008
  • The application of a respiratory gated radiotherpy method to the lung radiation surgery was evaluated compared with the conventional method in which the whole tumor motion range is considered in the delineation of PTV (Planning target volume). The four dimensional CT simulation images were acquired for the five NSCLC (Non-small cell lung cancer) patients for radiation surgery. The respiratory gated plan was prepared with the 50% phase CT images and the conventional method was planned based on the ITV (Internal target volume) which include all the target volumes created in each phase CT images within a whole respiratory period. The DVH (Dose volume histogram) of OAR (Organ at risk) which calculated in each method was compared for the evaluation of the plan properness. The relative decrease of OARs' DVH were verified in the application of respiratory gated method. The average decrease rate were $16.88{\pm}9.97%$ in the bronchus, $34.13{\pm}19.15%$ in the spinal cord, $28.42{\pm}18.49%$ in the chest wall and $32.48{\pm}16.66%$ in the lung. Based on these results, we can verified the applicability and the effectiveness of the respiratory gated method in the lung radiation surgery.

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Study on Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Response using a SWAT model in the Xe Bang Fai River Basin, Lao People's Democratic Republic (기후변화에 따른 라오스인민공화국의 시방파이 유역의 수문현상 예측에 대한 연구: SWAT 모델을 이용하여)

  • Phomsouvanh, Virasith;Phetpaseuth, Vannaphone;Park, Soo Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.779-797
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    • 2016
  • A calibrated hydrological model is a useful tool for quantifying the impacts of the climate variations and land use/land cover changes on sediment load, water quality and runoff. In the rainy season each year, the Xe Bang Fai river basin is provisionally flooded because of typhoons, the frequency and intensity of which are sensitive to ongoing climate change. Severe heavy rainfall has continuously occurred in this basin area, often causing severe floods at downstream of the Xe Bang Fai river basin. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the climate change impact on river discharge using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model based on future climate change scenarios. In this study, the simulation of hydrological river discharge is used by SWAT model, covering a total area of $10,064km^2$ in the central part of country. The hydrological model (baseline) is calibrated and validated for two periods: 2001-2005 and 2006-2010, respectively. The monthly simulation outcomes during the calibration and validation model are good results with $R^2$ > 0.9 and ENS > 0.9. Because of ongoing climate change, three climate models (IPSL CM5A-MR 2030, GISS E2-R-CC 2030 and GFDL CM3 2030) indicate that the rainfall in this area is likely to increase up to 10% during the summer monsoon season in the near future, year 2030. As a result of these precipitation increases, the SWAT model predicts rainy season (Jul-Aug-Sep) river discharge at the Xebangfai@bridge station will be about $800m^3/s$ larger than the present. This calibrated model is expected to contribute for preventing flood disaster risk and sustainable development of Laos

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Design and Analysis of Online Advertising Expenditure Model based on Coupon Download (쿠폰 다운로드를 기준으로 하는 온라인 광고비 모델의 설계 및 분석)

  • Jun, Jung-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • In offline environment, unlike traditional advertising model through TV, newspaper, and radio, online advertising model draws instantaneous responses from potential consumers and it is convenient to assess. This kind of characteristics of Internet advertising model has driven the growth of advertising model among various Internet business models. There are, conventionally classified, CPM (Cost Per Mile), CPC (Cost Per Click), and CPS (Cost Per Sales) models as Internet advertising expenditure model. These can be examined in manners regarding risks that stakeholders should stand and degree of responsibility. CPM model that is based on number of advertisement exposure is mechanically exposed to users but not actually recognized by users resulting in risk of wasted expenditure by advertisers without any advertising effect. While on aspect of media, CPS model that is based on conversion action is the most risky model because of the conversion action such as product purchase is determined by capability of advertisers not that of media. In this regard, while there are issue of CPM and CPS models disadvantageously affecting only one side of Internet advertising business model value network, CPC model has been evaluated as reasonable both to advertisers and media, and occupied the largest segment of Internet advertising market. However, CPC model also can cause fraudulent behavior such as click fraud because of the competition or dishonest amount of advertising expenditure. On the user aspect, unintentionally accessed advertisements can lead to more inappropriate expenditure from advertisers. In this paper, we suggest "CPCD"(Cost Per Coupon Download) model. This goes beyond simple clicking of advertisements and advertising expenditure is exerted when users download a coupon from advertisers, which is a concept in between CPC and CPS models. To achieve the purpose, we describe the scenario of advertiser perspective, processes, participants and their benefits of CPCD model. Especially, we suggest the new value in online coupon; "possibility of storage" and "complement for delivery to the target group". We also analyze the working condition for advertiser by a comparison of CPC and CPCD models through advertising expenditure simulation. The result of simulation implies that the CPCD model suits more properly to advertisers with medium-low price products rather than that of high priced goods. This denotes that since most of advertisers in CPC model are dealing with medium-low priced products, the result is very interesting. At last, we contemplate applicability of CPCD model in ubiquitous environment.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2013 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2013년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.26 no.12
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    • pp.605-619
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    • 2014
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2013. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of fluid machinery, pipes and relative parts including orifices, dampers and ducts, fuel cells and power plants, cooling and air-conditioning, heat and mass transfer, two phase flow, and the flow around buildings and structures. Research issues dealing with home appliances, flows around buildings, nuclear power plant, and manufacturing processes are newly added in thermal and fluid engineering research area. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results for general analytical model for desiccant wheels, the effects of water absorption on the thermal conductivity of insulation materials, thermal properties of Octadecane/xGnP shape-stabilized phase change materials and $CO_2$ and $CO_2$-Hydrate mixture, effect of ground source heat pump system, the heat flux meter location for the performance test of a refrigerator vacuum insulation panel, a parallel flow evaporator for a heat pump dryer, the condensation risk assessment of vacuum multi-layer glass and triple glass, optimization of a forced convection type PCM refrigeration module, surface temperature sensor using fluorescent nanoporous thin film. In the area of pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, researches on ammonia inside horizontal smooth small tube, R1234yf on various enhanced surfaces, HFC32/HFC152a on a plain surface, spray cooling up to critical heat flux on a low-fin enhanced surface were actively carried out. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches on a fin tube type adsorber, the mass-transfer kinetics of a fin-tube-type adsorption bed, fin-and-tube heat exchangers having sine wave fins and oval tubes, louvered fin heat exchanger were performed. (3) In the field of refrigeration, studies are categorized into three groups namely refrigeration cycle, refrigerant and modeling and control. In the category of refrigeration cycle, studies were focused on the enhancement or optimization of experimental or commercial systems including a R410a VRF(Various Refrigerant Flow) heat pump, a R134a 2-stage screw heat pump and a R134a double-heat source automotive air-conditioner system. In the category of refrigerant, studies were carried out for the application of alternative refrigerants or refrigeration technologies including $CO_2$ water heaters, a R1234yf automotive air-conditioner, a R436b water cooler and a thermoelectric refrigerator. In the category of modeling and control, theoretical and experimental studies were carried out to predict the performance of various thermal and control systems including the long-term energy analysis of a geo-thermal heat pump system coupled to cast-in-place energy piles, the dynamic simulation of a water heater-coupled hybrid heat pump and the numerical simulation of an integral optimum regulating controller for a system heat pump. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, twenty one studies were conducted to achieve effective design of the mechanical systems, and also to maximize the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included heating and cooling, HVAC system, ventilation, and renewable energies in the buildings. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which can improve the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment is mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment are related to infiltration, ventilation, leak flow and airtightness performance in residential building. The subjects of building energy are worked on energy saving, operation method and optimum operation of building energy systems. The remained studies are related to the special facility such as cleanroom, internet data center and biosafety laboratory. water supply and drain system, defining standard input variables of BIM (Building Information Modeling) for facility management system, estimating capability and providing operation guidelines of subway station as shelter for refuge and evaluation of pollutant emissions from furniture-like products.