• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.1154-1162
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• 2014

In the restructured electricity market, Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) regime has been introduced to the distribution network. To ensure the network stability, this regime is used along with quality regulations. Quality regulation impose new financial risks on distribution system operators (DSOs). The poor quality of the network will result in reduced revenues for DSOs. The mentioned financial risks depend on the quality indices of the system. Based on annual variation of these indices, the cost of quality regulation will also vary. In this paper with regard to reclosing fault in distribution network, we develop a risk-based method to assess the financial risks caused by quality regulation for DSOs. Furthermore, in order to take the stochastic behavior of the distribution network and quality indices variations into account, time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used. Using the proposed risk method, the effect of taking reclosing time into account will be examined on system quality indicators and the cost of quality regulation in Swedish rural reliability test system (SRRTS). The results show that taking reclosing fault into consideration, affects the system quality indicators, particularly annual average interruption frequency index of the system (SAIFI). Moreover taking reclosing fault into consideration also affects the quality regulations cost. Therefore, considering reclosing time provides a more realistic viewpoint about the financial risks arising from quality regulation for DSOs.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.158-170
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• 2009

This paper considers how the optimal export level is influenced by export risk, the degree of risk-averseness for exporting firms, and those firms' cost structure. In addition, export insurance is incorporated into some simple theoretical model to analyze the optimal export level. This paper applies genetic algorithm simulation to show that the exporting firms'risk-averseness do not affect the optimal export decision while export risk and cost function characteristic have relatively more significant effects on the optimal export level. Finally, our findings suggest that the most influential factor for the optimal export levels seems to be the monopoly power of exporting firms.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제29권8호
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• pp.1188-1196
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• 2016

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model ($r=1.82{\times}10^{-11}$) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were $12.40{\pm}19.43g$ and $19.46{\pm}14.39g$, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=91$; ${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=309$)${\times}$uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were $9.57{\times}10^{-14}$ and $3.58{\times}10^{-14}$, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by consumption cheese is low, and it can be used to establish microbial criteria for C. perfringens on natural and processed cheeses.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.38-49
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• 2016

This paper proposes a mathematical model-based solution for sourcing decisions with an objective of minimizing the manufacturer's total cost in the two-echelon supply chain with supply capacity risk. The risk impact is represented by uniform, beta, and triangular distributions. For the mathematical model, the probability vector of normal, risk, and recovery statuses are developed by using the status transition probability matrix and the equations for estimating the supply capacity under risk and recovery statuses are derived for each of the three probability distributions. Those formulas derived are validated using the sampling method. The results of the simulation study on the test problem show that the sourcing decisions using the proposed solution reduce the total cost by 1.6~3.7%, compared with the ones without a consideration of supply capacity risk. The total cost reduction increases approximately in a linear fashion as the probability of risk occurrence or reduction rate of supply capacity due to risk events is increased.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제37권6호
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• pp.567-574
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• 2013

Although Korea coastal area has the increasing potential marine accident due to frequent ship's encounter, increased vessel traffic and large vessel, there is no specific model to evaluate the navigating vessel's risk considering the domestic traffic situation. The maritime transport environmental assessment is necessary due to the amended maritime traffic law. However, marine safety diagnosis is now carried out by foreign model. In this paper, therefore, we suggest a domestic traffic model reflecting the characteristics of korea coastal area and navigator's risk as we named PARK(Potential Assessment of Risk) model. We can evaluate the subjective risk by establishing the model and model output into maritime risk exposure system. To evaluate this model's effectiveness, we used ship handling simulation and applied, analyzed collision accident which occurred in korea coastal area. And also, we applied integrated to an ECDIS program for monitoring traffic risk of vessels with real time based AIS data and apply to evaluate traffic risk in busan harbor waterway. As a result, we could evaluate busan harbor waterway risk effectively.

• 한국가시화정보학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.8-13
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• 2006

Fire simulation has been developed for decades to analyze fire cases and provide a tool to study fundamental fire dynamics and combustion. There are three way of fire simulation which are a full scale simulation, an experimental simulation and a computational simulation. In case of a full scale simulation, because a higher cost, a higher risk, more efforts are needed, a demand for it has been decreased. But recently a demand for an experimental simulation and a computational simulation has been increased. A computational simulation has several advantages; lower cost, short period, many case studies, more visual results, a quantitative result and etc. FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator) which has been developed in BFRL(Building and Fire Research Laboratory), NIST(National Institute of Standards and Technology) is a popular world wide code for fire simulation. Lack of accurate predictions by the model could lead to erroneous conclusions with regard to fire safety. All results should be evaluated by the informed judgment of the qualified user.

• 산업공학
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.24-39
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• 2011

In this paper, we study the methodology for the measurement and integration of market risk and credit risk using Copula. We apply the methodology of Rosenberg, and Schuermann(2006) to the assets of pension system. Firstly we estimate dynamics of risk factors and their effects on investment returns, then use the estimated result to simulate future movement of risk factors and distribution of investment returns. Finally we measure integrated risk using integrated return distribution by Copula and simulated future investment return distributions. We found the integrated risk changing with the correlation of risks and investment weights of risks and confirmed the diversification effect of risks. This result is consistent when we use normal Copula and normal marginals, t-Copula and t(3) marginals, and normal Copula and non-parametric marginals. And in the case of non-parametric maginals, larger integrated risk is calculated. It means that use of non-parametric marginals is more conservative.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.541-551
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• 2020

Based on the trend, there have been numerous researches analysing the ship collision risk. However, in this scope, the navigational conditions and external environment are ignored or incompletely considered in training or/and real situation. It has been identified as a significant limitation in the navigational collision risk assessment. Therefore, a novel algorithm of the ship navigational collision risk solving system has been proposed based on basic collision risk and vulnerabilities of marine accidents. The vulnerability can increase the possibility of marine collision accidents. The factors of vulnerabilities including bad weather, tidal currents, accidents prone area, traffic congestion, operator fatigue and fishing boat operating area are involved in the fuzzy reasoning engines to evaluate the navigational conditions and environment. Fuzzy logic is employed to reason basic collision risk using Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Time of Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) and the degree of vulnerability in the specific coastal waterways. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to obtain the integration of vulnerabilities. In this paper, vulnerability factors have been proposed to improve the collision risk assessment especially for non-SOLAS ships such as coastal operating ships and fishing vessels in practice. Simulation is implemented to validate the practicability of the designed navigational collision risk solving system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권2호
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• pp.393-398
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• 2021

Current risk assessment of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) transportation has the problem of the incomplete risk factors consideration and the general particle diffusion model utilization. In this paper, the accident frequency calculation and the detailed simulation of the accident consequences are coupled by the integrated risk assessment method. The "man-machine-environment" three-dimensional comprehensive risk indicator system is established and quantified to characterize the frequency of the transportation accidents. Consideration of vegetation, building and turbulence effect, the standard k-ε model is updated to simulate radioactive consequence of leakage accidents under complex terrain. The developed method is applied to assess the risk of the leakage accident in the scene of the typical domestic SNF Road Transportation (SNFRT). The critical risk factors and their impacts on the dispersion of the radionuclide are obtained.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제25권10호
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• pp.534-539
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• 2013

In general, entire supply air of the BSL3 laboratory should be vented to the outside for its biosafety and the air conditioning system should always be operating to maintain a room pressure difference. In this regard, annual energy consumption is approximately five or ten times greater than the magnitude of the office building. In addition, to adjust room pressure difference to the set value efficiently, the supply and exhaust duct system are installed in each room of the BSL3 lab. Thus, initial construction cost is extremely high. In this study, multizone simulation is performed to estimate maintaining the appropriate room pressure difference in the case of changing model A (each room supply and exhaust system) to model B (each zone supply and exhaust system) for verification of the BSL3 lab biosafety. Also, in the case of these two models, the multizone simulation for three kinds of biohazard scenario is performed as part of risk assessment. The analysis of initial construction cost of two models is conducted for comparison. According to the studies, initial construction cost of model B is less than about 22% of existing model A. Moreover, biosafety of the BSL3 lab is still maintaining in the case of the two models.