• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk mitigation

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THE NEXT-GENERATION INFRARED ASTRONOMY MISSION SPICA UNDER THE NEW FRAMEWORK

  • NAKAGAWA, TAKAO;SHIBAI, HIROSHI;ONAKA, TAKASHI;MATSUHARA, HIDEO;KANEDA, HIDEHIRO;KAWAKATSU, YASUHIRO
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.621-624
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    • 2015
  • We present the current status (as of August 2014) of SPICA (Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics), which is a mission optimized for mid- and far-infrared astronomy with a cryogenically cooled 3m-class telescope. SPICA is expected to achieve high spatial resolution and unprecedented sensitivity in the mid- and far-infrared, which will enable us to address a number of key problems in present-day astronomy, ranging from the star-formation history of the universe to the formation of planets. We have carried out the "Risk Mitigation Phase" activity, in which key technologies essential to the realization of the mission have been extensively developed. Consequently, technical risks for the success of the mission have been significantly mitigated. Along with these technical activities, the international collaboration framework of SPICA has been revisited, which resulted in la arger contribution from ESA than that in the original plan. To enable the ESA participation under the new framework, a SPICA proposal to ESA is under consideration as a medium-class mission under the framework of the ESA Cosmic Vision. The target launch year of SPICA under the new framework is the mid-2020s.

Seismic vulnerability assessment criteria for RC ordinary highway bridges in Turkey

  • Avsar, O.;Yakut, A.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.127-145
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    • 2012
  • One of the most important and challenging steps in seismic vulnerability and performance assessment of highway bridges is the determination of the bridge component damage parameters and their corresponding limit states. These parameters are very essential for defining bridge damage state as well as determining the performance of highway bridges under a seismic event. Therefore, realistic damage limit states are required in the development of reliable fragility curves, which are employed in the seismic risk assessment packages for mitigation purposes. In this article, qualitative damage assessment criteria for ordinary highway bridges are taken into account considering the critical bridge components in terms of proper engineering demand parameters (EDPs). Seismic damage of bridges is strongly related to the deformation of bridge components as well as member internal forces imposed due to seismic actions. A simple approach is proposed for determining the acceptance criteria and damage limit states for use in seismic performance and vulnerability assessment of ordinary highway bridges in Turkey constructed after the 1990s. Physical damage of bridge components is represented by three damage limit states: serviceability, damage control, and collapse prevention. Inelastic deformation and shear force demand of the bent components (column and cap beam), and superstructure displacement are the most common causes for the seismic damage of the highway bridges. Each damage limit state is quantified with respect to the EDPs: i.e. curvature and shear force demand of RC bent components and superstructure relative displacement.

Parameter Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis of the Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우-유출모형 매개변수의 최적화 및 불확실성 분석)

  • Moon, Young-Il;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.723-726
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    • 2008
  • It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established, uncertainty analysis, therefore, are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an expected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

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Estimation of Surface Wind Speed on the Strong Wind Damage by Typhoon (태풍으로 인한 강풍 피해 추정을 위한 지상풍 산정 연구(Ⅰ))

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Jung, Woo-Sik;Choi, Hyo-Jin
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.85-88
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    • 2008
  • Damage from typhoon disaster can be mitigated by grasping and dealing with the damage promptly for the regions in typhoon track. What is this work, a technique to analyzed dangerousness of typhoon should be presupposed. This study estimated 10m level wind speed using 700hPa wind by typhoon, referring to GPS dropwindsonde study of Franklin(2003). For 700hPa wind, 30km resolution data of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System(RDAPS) were used. For roughness length in estimating wind of 10m level, landuse data of USGS are employed. For 10m level wind speed of Typhoon Rusa in 2002, we sampled AWS point of $7.4\sim30km$ distant from typhoon center and compare them with observational data. The results show that the 10m level wind speed is the estimation of maximum wind speed which can appear in surface by typhoon and it cannot be compared with general hourly observational data. Wind load on domestic buildings relies on probability distributions of extreme wind speed. Hence, calculated 10m level wind speed is useful for estimating the damage structure from typhoon.

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A Study on Coping Behavior of Elderly in the Disaster (노인의 재난시 대처행동에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Soon-Dool;Park, Hyun-Ju;Choi, Yeo-Hee;Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.389-392
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    • 2008
  • Warning phase of disaster is a critical period in determining the likely survival of threatened citizens. Elderly requires special attention primarily because they tend to be uncompliant and less likely to cooperate with authorities. But there is much less research on how elderly respond to disaster warnings, while there is a strong consistent empirical literature on older citizen in the recovery periods of disaster. The purpose of this study is to examine coping behavior of elderly when they are at risk of disaster. Data were collected from 130 senior citizens aged over 60 who are residing in Pyungchang and Injae in Kangwon province which had damaged due to heavy rain in 2006. Perry & Lindell(1997)'s index, a series of six categories that represent coping behaviors which progressively approximate the action of evacuating was used : do nothing(1), check environmental cues for evidence of a threat(2), engage in threat-specific property protection(3), engage in protective action for personal safety(4), prepare to evacuate(5), evacuate the areas as instructed in the warning(6). Almost respondents(69.2%) chose the level 6(51.5%) and level 5(17.7%). This proves the elderly are not uncompliant or uncooperative population. Furthermore, this finding emphasizes the importance of public warning in case of disasters. And 13.8% of total respondent checked level 1 for their reaction.

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Analysis of Fuel Moisture Contents Change after Precipitation in the Pine tree stand during Forest Fire Period in the East sea region (영동지역 소나무림에서 강우 후 임내 연료습도 변화분석)

  • Lee, Si-Young;Lee, Myung-Woog;Kwon, Chun-Geun;Yeom, Chan-Ho
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.149-152
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    • 2008
  • This study is the result between the variation of fuel moisture and the risk of forest fire through measuring the change of moisture containing ratio on-site and its average analysis for fallen leaves layer, humus layer, and soil layer in the forest. The measurement was performed on six days from the day after a rainfall. The fuel moisture on-site was measured on the day when the accumulated rainfall was above 5.0mm, and the measurements was 2 times in spring and 1 time in fall. From the pine forest which were distributed around Samcheok and Donghae in Kangwondo, three regions were selected by loose, medium, and dense forest density, and the fuel moisture was measured on fallen leaves layer, humus layer, and soil layer in the forest. for six days from the day after a rainfall. The study showed that the moisture containing ratio converged on 3 - 4 days in spring and fall for fallen leaves layer, and the convergence was made more than six days in spring and fall for the humus layer. In the other case of soil layer, the variation of moisture containing ratio after rainfall was not distinguishable regardless of season.

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Classifying meteorological drought severity using a hidden Markov Bayesian classifier

  • Sattar, Muhammad Nouman;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.150-150
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    • 2019
  • The development of prolong and severe drought can directly impact on the environment, agriculture, economics and society of country. A lot of efforts have been made across worldwide in the planning, monitoring and mitigation of drought. Currently, different drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are developed and most commonly used to monitor drought characteristics quantitatively. However, it will be very meaningful and essential to develop a more effective technique for assessment and monitoring of onset and end of drought. Therefore, in this study, the hidden Markov Bayesian classifier (MBC) was employed for the assessment of onset and end of meteorological drought classes. The results showed that the probabilities of different classes based on the MBC were quite suitable and can be employed to estimate onset and end of each class for meteorological droughts. The classification results of MBC were compared with SPI and with past studies which proved that the MBC was able to account accuracy in determining the accurate drought classes. For more performance evaluation of classification results confusion matrix was used to find accuracy and precision in predicting the classes and their results are also appropriate. The overall results indicate that the MBC was effective in predicating the onset and end of drought events and can utilized for monitoring and management of short-term drought risk.

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Assessment of Human Impact on Mekong River Flood by Using Satellite Nightlight Image

  • Try, Sophal;Lee, Giha;Lee, Daeeop;Thuy, HoangThu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.187-187
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    • 2016
  • High intensity of population distribution in deltaic setting especially in Asia tends to have increased and causes coastal flood risk due to lower elevations and significant subsidence. Maximum or peak discharge of flood always causes numerous deaths and huge economic losses. New technology of spatial satellite image has been applied to analyze flood damage. In this research, the relationship of nightlight intensity associated with flood damages has been determined during 1992-2013 with spatial resolution of 30 arc sec ($0.0083^{\circ}$) which is nearly one kilometer at the equator in whole six countries along the Mekong River (i.e., China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam). ArcGIS Hydrological Flow Length Tool has been used to determine the distance of each pixel areas from the rivers and streams. Statistical analysis results highlight the significant correlation R = 0.47 between nightlight digital number and economic damages per unit area (US$/km2) and R = 0.62 for number of affected people for unit area ($people/km^2$). The areas near by the Mekong River and its tributaries correspond to high flood damage. This spatial analysis result is going to be prestigious key information to the regions and all related stakeholders for decisions and mitigation strategies.

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Seismic behavior of isolated bridges with additional damping under far-field and near fault ground motion

  • Losanno, Daniele;Hadad, Houman A.;Serino, Giorgio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a numerical investigation on the seismic behavior of isolated bridges with supplemental viscous damping. Usually very large displacements make seismic isolation an unfeasible solution due to boundary conditions, especially in case of existing bridges or high risk seismic regions. First, a suggested optimal design procedure is introduced, then seismic performance of three real bridges with different isolation systems and damping levels is investigated. Each bridge is studied in four different configurations: simply supported (SSB), isolated with 10% damping (IB), isolated with 30% damping (LRB) and isolated with optimal supplemental damping ratio (IDB). Two of the case studies are investigated under spectrum compatible far-field ground motions, while the third one is subjected to near-fault strong motions. With respect to different design strategies proposed by other authors, results of the analysis demonstrated that an isolated bridge equipped with HDLRBs and a total equivalent damping ratio of 70% represents a very effective design solution. Thanks to confirmed effective performance in terms of base shear mitigation and displacement reduction under both far field and near fault ground motions, as well as for both simply supported and continuous bridges, the suggested control system provides robustness and reliability in terms of seismic performance also resulting cost effective.

A Study on the Risk Assessment and Mitigation Plan about Fire Explosion of n-Pentane in EPS Process (EPS공정에서 발생하는 n-Pentane의 화재폭발에 대한 위험성평가 및 위험성 완화 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Min Su;Kim, Ki Sug;Kim, Bo Min;Kang, Dong Cheon;Kang, Kil Jae;Chon, Young Woo
    • Korean Journal of Hazardous Materials
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2018
  • 최근 전자제품 생산업체에서 EPS를 직접생산하게 되면서 EPS 공정이 증가하고 있다. EPS에는 펜탄이 포함되어 있으며, 펜탄은 하이브리드 혼합물로 구분할 수 있어 높은 화재폭발의 위험성을 가지고 있다. 각 공정별 펜탄의 누출률은 발포기, 사일로실, 저장실 순이나 발포기의 경우 일반적으로 밀폐되어 있으므로 사일로 실이 가장 화재폭발 위험성이 높다고 판단하였다. 사일로실의 누출률 중 70%는 사일로 상단을 통해 누출되며, 사일로 상단을 통해 누출되는 펜탄의 거동을 분석하여 사일로실 위험성 완화대책을 수립하였다. 1. 폭발위험구역 2종으로 관리, 2. 사일로상단 50cm이내 환기설비 설치 또는 Push-Pull 구조의 환기설비설치, 3. 사일로 하단 1.4m이내에 가스감지기 설치, 4. 60%이상의 습도유지