• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1996년도 Proceedings of the Korea Automatic Control Conference, 11th (KACC); Pohang, Korea; 24-26 Oct. 1996
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• pp.107-110
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• 1996

Continuing advances in the formulation and solution of risk-sensitive control problems have reached a point at which this topic is becoming one of the more intriguing modern paradigms of feedback thought. Despite a prevailing atmosphere of close scrutiny of theoretical studies, the risk-sensitive body of knowledge is growing. Moreover, from the point of view of applications, the detailed properties of risk-sensitive design are only now beginning to be worked out. Accordingly, the time seems to be right for a survey of the historical underpinnings of the subject. This paper addresses the beginnings and the evolution, over the first quarter-century or so, and points out the close relationship of the topic with the notion of optimal cost cumulates, in particular the cost variance. It is to be expected that, in due course, some duality will appear between these notions and those in estimation and filtering. The purpose of this document is to help to lay a framework for that eventuality.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.44-51
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• 2001

To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2021년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.285-286
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• 2021

These days, interior construction is performed to prevent the deterioration of old building finishings or to make distinctive designs. In case of interior construction, a construction cost is estimated through basic 2D drawings in the design step. Accordingly, an efficient construction plan and direction is established according to budget. In such a case, construction is dependent on 2D drawings. At that time, a risk can occur easily. This study is aimed at reducing the cost and risk of interior construction by implementing 3D drawings with the use of the visual data of 2D drawings. For accurate analysis, 2D drawings were completed, and then 3D interior construction modeling for various buildings was conducted with the 3D modeling software 3D Max. According to the 3D modeling, it reduced the cost and risk more than 2D drawings based design, and influenced the improvement in the understanding of orderers and workers.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.13-24
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• 2022

건설공사는 다양한 리스크에 노출되어 있으며, 건설공사의 리스크는 더욱 증가하는 경향을 보이고 있다. 건설공사의 리스크 증가는 건설사의 리스크 예측 및 대응의 중요성을 더욱 증가시키고 있다. 건설사가 건설공사의 리스크를 대응하는 방법 중 하나는 리스크 비용을 사전에 예측 또는 산정하여 이를 실행예산에 반영하는 것이다. 리스크 비용과 관련하여 다양한 연구들이 수행되어 왔지만, 국내 건설사의 실행예산 편성 시 리스크 비용 산정에 관한 인식과 실태에 관한 분석은 미흡한 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 목적은 종합건설사의 실행예산 편성 시 리스크 비용 산정과 관련된 인식과 실태를 조사·분석하여 주요 특징 및 시사점을 도출하는데 있다. 본 연구의 주요 결과를 요약하면 실행예산 편성 시 리스크 비용 반영의 중요성에 대한 인식은 상당히 높았으나, 상대적으로 리스크 비용을 산정하는 수준은 상대적으로 미흡한 것으로 나타났다. 리스크 비용 산정을 효과적으로 수행하기 위해서는 실적 데이터, 가이드라인, 전사적 표준절차 등 실무기반이 구축되어야 하며, 충분한 견적기간도 할애될 필요가 있었다. 또한 리스크 비용 산정을 위해 빅데이터 분석기법을 포함한 정교한 분석기법의 활용에 대한 관심은 높지만 현재 준비 및 활용 수준은 낮은 것으로 나타나 이에 대한 실무 적용성을 높이기 위한 연구개발이 필요하다고 할 수 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.623-635
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• 2021

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of information risk on the Cost of Equity (COE) and whether the risk of a stock price crash mediates the relation between information risk and COE. To test the dynamic nature of the proposed model, the two-step system GMM dynamic panel estimators are applied to all the non-financial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from 2007- 2018. The results of this study show that all three types of information risk, as well as the risk of the share price crash, increases the COE. The crash risk strengthens the impact of information risk on the COE. Moreover, these three information risks are correlated with each other and an increase in information quality reduces the effect of asymmetric information and improves the investor interpreting ability, while an increase in private information decreases the transparency. The finding is crucial for asset pricing, portfolio management, and information disclosure. This study contributes to the literature by providing novel findings on the impact of three different types of information risk, i.e. private information, quality of information, and transparency of information on the COE as well as whether crash risk mediates the relationship.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1176-1182
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• 2009

Due to recession in real estate market, interest of risk analysis is increasing. Feasibility study in the first stage takes a great role in a project. There are not objectified tools which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected method of determinism does not include liquidity of weight risk. Also, shortage of consideration for subjective and atypical external factors causes inappropriate results. Therefore, this study proposes feasibility study model focused on risk factor influences in construction cost and sales cost. Considering effective level of cost based on objective risk factors and probable weight of risk by this model, real workers are able to bring correct and scientific decisions better than former method based on selective analysis of real estate development.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.63-71
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• 2000

건설공사비의 총액을 산정하기 위한 예비 견적은 위험의 정도를 감수하고 있다. 즉 대형 건설공사의 경우 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 수행되어지며 공종에 따른 공사기간별로 초기 계획단계보다 실행견적가에 미달하는 위험과 관련하여 발생되어진다. 이는 신뢰성 있는 유사비용데이터 수집의 어려움과 데이터의 수가 절대적으로 부족할 뿐만 아니라 이러한 수집된 비용데이터 조차도 건설공사의 특성을 충분히 반영하지 못하기 때문이다. 또한 통산 비용산정방법에 있어서 기존에 주로 활용되는 확정론적 비용평가는 다수의 불확실성을 띄고 있는 건설공사의 특수성을 반영하지 못하고 있다. 따라서 국내의 비용평가시 다루어지지 않고 있는 비용의 확률적 개념을 도입함으로서 비용의 위험도를 측정하고 비용요인들간의 상관성과 부위별 비용특성을 반영하여 견적시 과대 과소의 오차합계를 최소화하기 위한 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 여기서 위험도는 예비견적비가 실제 발주자 집행 실행견적가 보다 적게 될 확률로서 정의하고 본 방법의 제시에 따른 사례의 적용을 통해 객관적 인 검증을 연구의 목적으로 한다. 연구의 방법은 첫 번째, 비용 데이터로부터 직접적으로 위험도를 평가하는 통계학적 방법과 두 번째, 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 방법을 이용하여 비용데이터로부터 간접적으로 위험도 평가방법을 제안하고자한다. 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 방법은 단위 요소비용의 분포특성과 비용상관성으로부터 총비용의 확률분포를 생성하여 신뢰성 있는 비용 데이터의 확장과 해석이 가능한 방법으로 실제상황에 접근된 위험도 평가가 가능할 것이다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제20권41호
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• pp.147-156
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• 1997

This Study deals with the problem of determining a minimum cost sampling inspection plan for destructive testing by attribute. The linear cost model(LCM) is constructed under the assumption that unit cost, destructive testing cost, producer's risk cost, consumer's risk cost are given. For the solution from the LCM, we assumed the uniform distribution as a prior distribution.