• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk cost

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A Stochastic Network Simulation Model for Project Risk Analysis (확률적 네트워크 Simulation 방법을 이용한 프로젝트의 위험분석모델)

  • 황흥석
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2000
  • 본 연구는 대형 프로젝트의 위험분석을 위한 확률적 Network 시뮬레이션모델의 연구로서 Simulation방법으로 프로젝트의 성공 및 실패확률을 산정 하였다. 프로젝트의 주요 불확실성 요소(Uncertainty Factors)인 프로젝트의 수행기간(Time), 비용(Cost) 및 성과(Performance) 등의 계획은 실패 없이 추진되어야 하는 것이 중요하다. 연구 개발 및 신기술개발과 같이 대형 프로젝트의 경우, 그 성과 달성의 위험(Risk)성은 매우 크며 이러한 위험 예측 및 분석이 프로젝트의 성공적인 수행을 위하여 매우 중요 시 된다. 본 연구에서는 이를 위한 위험분석(Risk Analysis)의 방법으로 일반적으로 쉽게 사용할 수 있는 위험요인법(Risk Factor Analysis)과 확률적 Network 시뮬레이션모델을 제시하였으며 또한 이를 위한 Simulation프로그램을 개발하였으며 이를 신 기술개발 프로젝트에 응용하는 과정을 보였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 관련 프로그램을 보완 할 경우 대형 프로젝트의 각종 의사결정 시에 매우 유용하게 활용될 수 있으리라 생각된다.

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A Study on the Perception of Credit Cards' Benefit and Risk and the Shopping Value Types among Korean Undergraduate Consumers (대학생의 쇼핑가치 유형과 신용카드의 혜택 및 위험 요인 지각에 대한 연구)

  • Hong Heeyoung;Doo Kyungja
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.145-161
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    • 2005
  • This study was to examine whether the hedonic and utilitarian shopping values were expressed in shopping experience among the undergraduates and how the consumers with different shopping values vary in the perception of credit cards' benefit and risk. The 215 undergraduates in Seoul were surveyed. The results indicated that undergraduates were divided into hedonic shoppers and utilitarian shoppers according to their shopping value and that the perception of credit cards' benefit and risk was explained by the four factors including the increased cost, the removing the immediate need for money, the additional service and benefits, and the overspending and credit crime. The overspending and credit crime as one of the risk factors was affected by the types of shopping values.

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Application of Toxicogenomic Technology for the Improvement of Risk Assessment

  • Hwang, Myung-Sil;Yoon, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Ja-Young;Son, Bo-Kyung;Jang, Dong-Deuk;Yoo, Tae-Moo
    • Molecular & Cellular Toxicology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2008
  • Recently, there has been scientific discussion on the utility of -omics techniques such as genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics within toxicological research and mechanism-based risk assessment. Toxicogenomics is a novel approach integrating the expression analysis of genes (genomic) or proteins (proteomic) with traditional toxicological methods. Since 1999, the toxicogenomic approach has been extensively applied for regulatory purposes in order to understand the potential toxic mechanisms that result from chemical compound exposures. Therefore, this article's purpose was to consider the utility of toxicogenomic profiles for improved risk assessment, explore the current limitations in applying toxicogenomics to regulation, and finally, to rationalize possible avenues to resolve some of the major challenges. Based on many recent works, the significant impact toxicogenomic techniques would have on human health risk assessment is better identification of toxicity pathways or mode-of-actions (MOAs). In addition, the application of toxicogenomics in risk assessment and regulation has proven to be cost effective in terms of screening unknown toxicants prior to more extensive and costly experimental evaluation. However, to maximize the utility of these techniques in regulation, researchers and regulators must resolve many parallel challenges with regard to data collection, integration, and interpretation. Furthermore, standard guidance has to be prepared for researchers and assessors on the scientifically appropriate use of toxicogenomic profiles in risk assessment. The National Institute of Toxicological Research (NITR) looks forward to an ongoing role as leader in addressing the challenges associated with the scientifically sound use of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment.

Impacts of Perceived Risk on Satisfaction, Trust, and Loyalty in Food-Service Franchise Context (외식 프랜차이즈 기업에 대한 지각된 위험이 만족, 신뢰, 그리고 충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sang-Eon;Woo, Sung-Keun;Choi, Myeong-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - Consumers perceive various risks while using food service franchise stores. Food service franchise stores offer consumers not just menus, but services, physical environment, and prices, which can be perceived as risk to consumers. This means that consumer behavior in foos service franchise stores needs to be studied based on perceived risk theory. Perceived risk consists of performance risk, financial risk, social risk, psychological risk, and time risk. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of perceived risk on satisfaction and trust, and in turn affect loyalty. The results of this study will provide guidelines for marketers to develop strategies to reduce the perceived risk of consumers. Research design, data, methodology - In order to achieve research purposes, the authors developed several hypotheses. Data were through online survey through an online survey firm. A questionnaire survey was distributed to customers who have visited the restaurant in the past three months. The survey was conducted from March 5, 2017 to October 14, 2017. A total of 1,500 people were e-mailed and 260 were returned. A total of 245 items were used in the analysis except 15 of the questionnaire. Data was analyzed by using SPSS 21.0 and AMOS 21.0. Results - The findings of this study are as follows: First, performance risk, economic risk, and psychological risk had negative effects on satisfaction. Social and time risks did not affect on satisfaction. Performance risk and time risk had negative impact on trust. Second, economic, social, and psychological risks did not affect trust, but satisfaction had significant positive effect on trust and loyalty. Third, satisfaction had positive effect on loyalty. Conclusions - The implications of this study are as follows. First, food service franchise marketers should increase their customer loyalty by establishing a risk reduction strategy. Second, there are various risks to customers visiting the store. Therefore, marketers need to analyze the perceived risks of customers. Third, it is also necessary to eliminate the perceived risks of customers. In addition, a restaurant franchise company needs to find a reasonable way to reduce the material cost and present a reasonable menu price.

Risk-Based Performance Evaluation and Prediction Tool by Characterizing Construction Projects in Pre-Project Planning (초기 단계 프로젝트 특성을 고려한 리스크 평가 및 예측 툴 개발)

  • Shin, Kang-Yong;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2008
  • Project risk factors are major triggers in cost performance in construction projects. Both owners and contractors are highly concerned in managing their risks in earlier times. As such, it is needed to provide a robust risk evaluation methodology in identifying and assessing the potential risks before project execution. In previous research, risk identification was conducted only in specific phases, i. e., design, procurement, construction. Therefore, the comprehensive approach in risk management was limited and their quantifying method was not well-defined. Since the benefit of planning in earlier times are maximized compared to later times, the risk management should be implemented in earlier planning stage. This study provide a new risk evaluation method by incorporating previous research and extensive literature review. By quantifying each risk factor from an extensive industry survey, the proposed tool can enhance the reliability of each factor weight and also the weights are categorized from a various perspectives, i.e., owners, contractors, lager-scale company, smaller-scale company, building projects. The proposed tool can be also useful in deciding on whether to proceed a particular project and How much the project contingency would be set aside in project execution. The study findings can also expedite the risk management procedure in a more systematic approach.

Priority Analysis of Project Stage-wise Risk Factors : Focusing on New Product Development Projects in ICT Industry (프로젝트 단계별 리스크 요인들의 우선순위 분석 : ICT(정보통신기술)산업 분야의 신제품 개발 프로젝트를 중심으로)

  • Jang, Heeseok;Choi, Sungyong;Lee, Minho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we identify risk factors that are likely to occur during the lifecycle of a new product development (NPD) project from the literatures, and identify the three objectives or three constraints that will ultimately be achieved for project success in the ICT industry : performance (scope/quality), schedule (time), and cost. Firstly, we interviewed the project experts to classify the risk factors according that the final project objectives are changeable based on scope/quality, time and cost budget constraints. Secondly, the survey for pairwise comparisons between the risk factors was asked to the project managers and members who had ever actually participated in the NPD projects of ICT industry to determine the priority ranks on relative importance using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). The risk factors negatively affecting the goals of projects were analyzed by using the AHP respectively in four project stages during the life cycle of the project. The comparison of risk factors within each stage is a different approach unlike the literatures which have covered project's overall risk assessment. There is an advantage that risk management can be effectively performed with priorities according to each stage from the start to the end of the project. In other words, it is necessary to identify what risk factors will occur in each stage, and to have ideas at each stage with the priorities so that they can be mitigated and eliminated before actual occurrence. As a result, risks on scope & quality changes were found to be the most important considerations for initiative stage of NPD projects in the ICT industry, whereas in the final stage, risks on schedule (time) changes were the most important priorities. Among the ICT industry product categories, 'communication and broadcasting devices' and 'IT and communication based devices' generally have a high priority in terms of risks on scope & quality changes when initiating the project. At the closing stage of the project, however, considering that schedule (time) changeable risk is getting higher, these products tend to target at B2B market rather than B2C because the new products must be delivered and launched in time as customer firm required.

Relationship of Nutritional Status at the Time of Admission to Length of Hospital Stay ( LOS ) and Mortality : A Prospective Study Based on Computerized Nutrition Screening (입원당시의 영양상태가 재원일수와 사망률에 미치는 영향 : 전산영양검색을 이용한 전향적 연구)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hye;Kim, Mi-Gyeong;Seo, Ae-Ri;Lee, Yeon-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 1999
  • This study was prospectively conducted to investigate any relationship of nutritional status at the time of admission to length of hospital stay and mortality. All patients admitted to the Asan Medical Center between October 13 and November 12, 1997 who met the study criteria were included in the study. Patients were classified as Not-at-risk, At-risk Ⅰ or At-risk Ⅱ based on the levels of serum albumin and total lymphocyte count in a computerized nutrition screening program. Sixty three percent of the patients were classified as Not-at-risk Group, 29% as At-risk Group Ⅰ and 8% as At-risk Group Ⅱ. Significant correlation was observed between nutritional status and LOS (P<0.01) as well as mortality rate (P<0.05). The more the patient had the nutritional risk factors, the longer the LOS and the higher the mortality rate were. Further studies have to be done in order to demonstrate cost-effectiveness of medical therapy for the malnourished hospitalized patients.

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The Pricing of Accruals Quality with Expected Returns: Vector Autoregression Return Decomposition Approach

  • YIM, Sang-Giun
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study reexamines the test on the pricing of accruals quality. Theory suggests that information risk is a priced risk factor. Using accruals quality as the proxy for information risk, researchers have tested the pricing of information risk. The results are inconsistent potentially because of the information shock in the realized returns that are used as the proxy for expected returns. Based on this argument, this study revisits this issue excluding information-shock-free measure of expected returns. Research design, data and methodology: This study estimates expected returns using the vector autoregression model. This method extracts information shocks more thoroughly than the methods in prior studies; therefore, the concern regarding information shock is minimized. As risk premiums are larger in recession periods than in expansion periods, recession and expansion subsamples were used to confirm the robustness of the main findings. For the pricing test, this study uses two-stage cross-sectional regression. Results: Empirical results find evidence that accruals quality is a priced risk factor. Furthermore, this study finds that the pricing of accruals quality is observed only in recession periods. Conclusions: This study supports the argument that accruals quality, as well as the pricing of information risk, is a priced risk factor.

Development of the Risk Assessment Systems for Management of Sunken Ships (침몰선박의 관리를 위한 위해도 평가시스템 개발)

  • Choi, H.J.;Lew, J.M.;Kim, H.;Lee, S.H.;Kang, C.G.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.193-202
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    • 2005
  • Marine risk assessment considers events such as collision/grounding, sinking/capsize, fire/explosion and flooding, developing relationships between their causes and effects. In addition, risk assessment of previously sunken ships are also necessary since they continuously have possibility for further oil spill or can cause other marine accidents. The objective of this paper is to develop the risk assessment systems for sunken ships to prevent oil spill and further marine causalities in order to preserve safe and clean oceans around Korea peninsula. The risk assessment systems for sunken ships comprise of database management sub-system for sunken ships, qualitative risk assessment sub-system, quantitative risk assessment sub-system, and cost-benefit analysis subsystem.

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Analysis of Effect of Risk Factors on the Success of Risk Management (리스크요소가 리스크관리 성공에 미치는 영향 분석 연구)

  • Chung, Yeon-Kyo;Chung, Byeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.443-449
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    • 2014
  • Although risk reduction of construction projects have been continued, the risk of fatal accident has been increased. The purpose of this paper is to reduce the cause of the essential risk factors. Questionnaire survey of construction companies in domestic was conducted and the Multiple Regression Analysis of statistics program was used to grasp effective factors among the risk factors of construction companies in domestic. Development of the essential risk factors and its application to projects could lead to improvements such as compression of network, reduction of cost, improvement of quality and reduction of safety accident.