• Wind and Structures
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.71-80
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• 2011

This study presents a decision making process for installation of wind barrier which is used to reduce the wind speed applied to running vehicles on expressway. To determine whether it is needed to install wind barrier or not, cost and benefit from wind barrier are calculated during lifetime. In obtaining car accidental risk, probabilistic distribution of wind speed, daily traffic volume, mixture ratio in the volume, and duration time for wind speed range are considered. It is recommended to install wind barrier if benefit from the barrier installation exceed construction cost. In the numerical examples, case studies were shown for risk and benefit calculation and main risky regions on Korean highway were all evaluated to identify the number of installation sites.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.134-136
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• 2003

The deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper compares the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI) with the system performance index for power flow in the IEEE-RBTS. also, the system performance index for power flow presents the power system stability. The probabilistic risk index can be classified into normal weather and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking requiring for security under the deregulated electricity market.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.642-648
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• 2009

Determining the total duration for a construction project is an integral part of project management in the construction industry. This is to ensure the project and all its associated activities can be carried out and completed within the time frame stipulated. There are several commonly used scheduling methods and techniques in project management, some of which involves manual calculation while others involve computer software. This paper looks into the various time determination methods, extracting out their differences and similarities. It also seeks to draw out the problems when determining time for projects, especially those encountered of case studies. Based on the results from the case studies, there were delays on certain projects even though time determination had been carried out rigorously prior to the commencement of the projects. This paper seeks to develop a time determination model, which incorporates risk management techniques into the calculations in order to improve the method for time estimation to minimize the chances of project delay.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.275-276
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• 2023

In order to prevent disaster risks caused by building aging in advance, the prevailing opinion is that it is urgent to actively improve systems such as mandatory safety inspections, and to calculate risks and develop safety management systems due to building aging. The need for systematic risk management continues to be emphasized in the process of safety inspection and repair of old buildings, but the risk management and safety management techniques of each construction entity have not been established in practice. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the vulnerability factors of aging buildings and provide basic data on the development of a risk rating calculation model for old buildings and the efficiency of safety management systems in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.606-611
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• 2018

City natural gas is classified flammable hazardous gas and should be secured according to explosion risk assessment determined by Industrial Standard KS C IEC. In this study, leak size, ventilation grade and effectiveness were adopted to the KS C IEC for risk assessment in natural gas supply system. To evaluate the applicability of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), the risk assessment was studied for four different conditions using hypothetical volume($V_z$) valuesfrom gas leak experiments, KS C IEC calculation, and CFD simulation.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.203-216
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• 1999

This paper describes a set of multi-pathway models for estimating health risk to lead. The models link concentrations of an environmental contaminant (lead) in air, water and food to human exposure through inhalation, ingestion, and dietary routes. Exposure is used as the foundation for predicting risk of health detriment within the population. The process of estimating exposure using often limited data and extrapolating to a large diverse population requires many assumption, inferences, and simplification. This paper is divided into four section. The first section provides lead contaminant levels on obtaining environmental concentration of air, tap water, and foods. The second section provides a discussion of exposure parameters and uncertainty associated predicting human health risk of contaminants. The third and fourth section illustrate lifetime average daily exposure (LADE) and excess cancer risk (ECR) based on exposure parameters. The relationship between concentration of lead in an environmental medium and human exposure is determined with pathway exposure factors (PEFs). The calculation of LADE and ECR is carried out using Monte-Carlo simulation with probability density function of exposure parameters. Examination of the result reveals that, for lead exposure, ingestion (food) is the dominant route of exposure rather than inhalation (air), and ingestion (tap eater).

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.44 no.7
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• pp.745-754
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• 2012

The correlations between Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) and Early Fatality need to be investigated for risk-informed application and regulation. In Regulatory Guide (RG) -1.174, while there are decision-making criteria using the measures of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and LERF, there are no specific criteria on LERF. Since there are both huge uncertainties and large costs needed in off-site consequence calculation, a LERF assessment methodology needs to be developed, and its correlation factor needs to be identified, for risk-informed decision-making. A new method for estimating off-site consequence has been presented and performed for assessing health effects caused by radioisotopes released from severe accidents of nuclear power plants in this study. The MACCS2 code is used for validating the source term quantitatively regarding health effects, depending on the release characteristics of radioisotopes during severe accidents. This study developed a method for identifying correlations between LERF and Early Fatality and validates the results of the model using the MACCS2 code. The results of this study may contribute to defining LERF and finding a measure for risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.59-79
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• 2021

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most common risk management tools in finance. Since a portfolio of several assets, rather than one asset portfolio, is advantageous in the risk diversification for investment, VaR for a portfolio of two or more assets is often used. In such cases, multivariate distributions of asset returns are considered to calculate VaR of the corresponding portfolio. Copulas are one way of generating a multivariate distribution by identifying the dependence structure of asset returns while allowing many different marginal distributions. However, they are used mainly for bivariate distributions and are not widely used in modeling joint distributions for many variables in finance. In this study, we would like to examine the performance of various copulas for high dimensional data and several different dependence structures. This paper compares copulas such as elliptical, vine, and hierarchical copulas in computing the VaR of portfolios to find appropriate copula functions in various dependence structures among asset return distributions. In the simulation studies under various dependence structures and real data analysis, the hierarchical Clayton copula shows the best performance in the VaR calculation using four assets. For marginal distributions of single asset returns, normal inverse Gaussian distribution was used to model asset return distributions, which are generally high-peaked and heavy-tailed.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.67-74
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• 2014

Buried natural gas pipelines in densely populated urban areas have serious hazards of property damages and casualties generated by release, dispersion, fire and explosion of gas caused by outside or inside failures. So as to prevent any accident in advance, managers implement danger management based on quantitative risk analysis. In order to evaluate quantitative risk about buried natural gas pipelines, we need calculation for radiant heat and pressure wave caused by calculation for release rate of chemical material, dispersion analysis, fire or explosion modeling through consequence analysis in priority, in this paper, we carry out calculation for release rate of pressured natural gas, radiant heat of fireball based in accident scenario of actual "San Bruno" buried high pressured pipelines through models which CCPS, TNO provide and compare with an actual damage result.

• Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.102-109
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• 2021

Recently, an interest in risk calculation methods has been increasing in Korea due to the establishment of classification code for explosive hazardous area on gas facility (KGS CODE GC101), which is based on the international standard of classification of areas - explosive gas atmospheres (IEC 60079-10-1). However, experiments to check for leaks of combustible or toxic gases are very difficult. These experiments can lead to fire, explosion, and toxic poisoning. Therefore, even if someone tries to provide a laboratory for this experiment, it is difficult to install a gas leakage equipment. In this study we find out differences among actual experiments, CFD by using FLACS and calculation based on classification code for explosive hazardous area on gas facility (KGS CODE GC101) by comparing to each other. We develpoed KGS HAC (hazardous area classification) program which based on KGS GC101 for convenience and popularization. As a result, actual gas leak, CFD and KGS HAC are showing slightly different results. The results of dispersion of 1.8 to 2.7 m were shown in the actual experiment, and the CFD and KGS HAC showed a linear increase of about 0.4 to 1 m depending on the increase in a flow rate. In the actual experiment, the application of 3/8" tubes and orifice to take into account the momentum drop resulted in an increase in the hazardous distance of about 1.95 m. Comparing three methods was able to identify similarities between real and CFD, and also similarities and limitations of CFD and KGS HAC. We hope these results will provide a good basis for future experiments and risk calculations.