• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk calculation

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Evaluation of Basin-Specific Water Use through Development of Water Use Assessment Index (이수평가지수 개발을 통한 유역별 물이용 특성 평가)

  • Baeck, Seung Hyub;Choi, Si Jung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.367-380
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    • 2013
  • In this study, sub-indicators, and thematic mid-indexes to evaluate the water use characteristics were selected through historical data analysis and factor analysis, and consisted of the subject approach framework. And the integrated index was developed to evaluate water use characteristics of the watershed. Using developed index, the water use characteristics were assessed for 812 standard basins with the exception for North Korea using data of 1990 to 2007 from the relevant agencies. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for this study to determine the proper way through various normalization and weighting methods. To increase the objectivity of developed index, the history of the damage indicators are excluded in the analysis. In addition, in order to ensure its reliability, results from index with and without consideration of the damage history were compared. Also, the index is also applied to real data for 2008 Gangwon region to verify its field applicability. Through the validation process this index confirmed the adequacy for the indicators selection and calculation method. The results of this study were analyzed based on the spatial and time vulnerability of the basin's water use, which can be applied to various parts such as priority decision-making for water business or policy, mitigations for the vulnerable components of the basin, and supporting measures to establishment by providing relevant information about it.

A Comparison of Dose-Response Assessments for CMR Materials in the Workplace (작업장에서 취급하는 CMR물질의 용량반응평가 방법 비교)

  • Lee, Kyung Hwa;Choi, Han Young;Kim, Chi Nyon;Roh, Young Man;Choi, Hee Jin;Park, Chae Ri
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: Currently, there is only limited knowledge regarding the hazard of low-level exposure to CMR materials in workplaces. To overcome this limitation, a reference concentration for workers($RfC_w$) from among the risk assessment tools proposed by the US EPA is widely used to set a provisional workplace exposure level(PWEL) for CMR materials for which there are no established Korea Occupational Exposure Limits(KOELs) or subjective chemicals for work environment measurements as regulated by Korea Ministry of Employment and Labor(KMOEL). A simple European calculator of derived no effect level(SECO-DNEL) as proposed by REACH can also be used in place of $RfC_w$ to set the PWEL for chemicals. This study was performed to test the acceptability of using SECO-DNEL as an alternative to $RfC_w$ when setting a PWEL for low-level exposures. Methods: The $RfC_w$ and DNEL for the five CMR materials of dinitrogen oxide, catechol, 2-phenoxy ethanol, carbitol, and carbon black were calculated using the dose-response assessments of the US EPA for $RfC_w$ and REACH guidance for SECO-DNEL, respectively. They were compared using paired t-tests to determine the statistical differences between them. Results: For the five chemicals, the $RfC_w$ were 2.53 ppm, 0.10 ppm, 1.73 ppm, 1.66 ppm, and $0.05mg/m^3$, respectively, while the SECO-DNEL were 2.01 ppm, 0.11 ppm, 1.83 ppm, 1.77 ppm, $0.14mg/m^3$, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between $RfC_w$ and SECO-DNEL. Conclusions: This study suggests that the SECO-DNEL could be applied in place of $RfC_w$ to set a PWEL for low-level exposure to chemicals, especially CMR materials. To further ensure the reliability of SECO-DNEL as an alternative tool, more chemicals should be applied for calculation and comparison with $RfC_w$.

Optimum Evacuation Route Calculation Using AI Q-Learning (AI기법의 Q-Learning을 이용한 최적 퇴선 경로 산출 연구)

  • Kim, Won-Ouk;Kim, Dae-Hee;Youn, Dae-Gwun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.870-874
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    • 2018
  • In the worst maritime accidents, people should abandon ship, but ship structures are narrow and complex and operation takes place on rough seas, so escape is not easy. In particular, passengers on cruise ships are untrained and varied, making evacuation prospects worse. In such a case, the evacuation management of the crew plays a very important role. If a rescuer enters a ship at distress and conducts rescue activities, which zones represent the most effective entry should be examined. Generally, crew and rescuers take the shortest route, but if an accident occurs along the shortest route, it is necessary to select the second-best alternative. To solve this situation, this study aims to calculate evacuation routes using Q-Learning of Reinforcement Learning, which is a machine learning technique. Reinforcement learning is one of the most important functions of artificial intelligence and is currently used in many fields. Most evacuation analysis programs developed so far use the shortest path search method. For this reason, this study explored optimal paths using reinforcement learning. In the future, machine learning techniques will be applicable to various marine-related industries for such purposes as the selection of optimal routes for autonomous vessels and risk avoidance.

Radiological Impact on Decommissioning Workers of Operating Multi-unit NPP (다수호기 원전 운영에 따른 원전 해체 작업자에 대한 방사선학적 영향)

  • Lee, Eun-hee;Kim, Chang-Lak
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2019
  • The decommissioning of one nuclear power plant in a multi-unit nuclear power plant (multi-unit NPP) site may pose radiation exposure risk to decommissioning workers. Thus, it is essentially required to evaluate the exposure dose of decommissioning workers of operating multi-unit NPPs nearby. The ENDOS program is a dose evaluation code developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). As two sub-programs of ENDOS, ENDOS-ATM to anticipate atmospheric transport and ENDOS-G to calculate exposure dose by gaseous radioactive effluents are used in this study. As a result, the annual maximum individual dose for decommissioning workers is estimated to be $2.31{\times}10^{-3}mSv{\cdot}y^{-1}$, which is insignificant compared with the effective dose limit of $1mSv{\cdot}y^{-1}$ for the public. Although it is revealed that the exposure dose of operating multi-unit NPPs does not result in a significant impact on decommissioning workers, closer examination of the effect of additional exposure due to actual demolition work is required. The calculation method of this study is expected to be utilized in the future for planned decommissioning projects in Korea. Because domestic NPPs are located in multi-unit sites, similar situations may occur.

Method for evaluating the safety performance and protection ability of the mobile steel protective wall during the high-explosive ammunition test (고폭탄 탄약시험 간 이동형 강재 방호벽의 안전성능 판단 및 유효 방호력 평가 방법)

  • Jeon, In-Beom
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.573-582
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a series of processes for evaluating the effective protection against barriers that should be equipped in institutions that perform reliability tests on high-risk ammunition, such as high-explosive ammunition, were introduced. The impact that high-explosive bombs can have on personnel includes damage to the eardrum and lungs caused by explosion overpressure and penetrating wounds that can be received by fragments generated simultaneously with the explosion. Therefore, a high-explosive with COMP B explosives as its contents were set up, and an explosion protection theory investigation to calculate the degree of damage, numerical calculations and simulations were performed to verify the protection power. A numerical calculation revealed the maximum explosion overpressure on the protective wall when the high-explosive exploded and the penetration force of the fragment against a 50 mm-thick protective wall to be 77.74 kPa and 41.34 mm, respectively. In the simulation verification using AUTODYN, the maximum explosion overpressures affecting the firewall and personnel were 56.68 kPa and 18.175 kPa, respectively, and the penetration of fragments was 35.56 mm. This figure is lower than the human damage limit, and it was judged that the protective power of the barrier would be effective.

Selection of Transition Point through Calculation of Cumulative Toxic Load -Focused on Incheon Area- (누적독성부하 산정을 통한 주민소산 전환시점 선정에 관한 연구 -인천지역을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Eun Ji;Han, Man Hyeong;Chon, Young Woo;Lee, Ik Mo;Hwang, Yong Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2020
  • With the development of the chemical industry, the chemical accident is increasing every year, thereby increasing the risk of accidents caused by chemicals. The Ministry of Environment provides the criteria for determining shelter-in-place or outdoor evacuation by material, duration of accident, and distance from the toxic substance leak. However, it is hard to say that the criteria for determining the transition point are not clear. Transition point mean the time that evacuation method is switched from shelter-in-place to outdoor evacuation. So, the purpose of this study was to calculate appropriate transition point by comparing the cumulative toxic load. Namdong-gu in Incheon Metropolitan City was finally selected as the target area, considering the current status of the population of Incheon Metropolitan City in 2016 and the statistical survey of chemicals in 2016. The target materials were HCl, HF, and NH3. Modeling was simulated by ALOHA and performed assuming that the entire amount would be leaked for 10 min. Residents' evacuation scenarios were assumed to be shelter-in-place, immediate outdoor evacuation, and outdoor evacuation at an appropriate time after shelter-in-place. Based on the above method, the appropriate transition point from residents located in A(800 m away), B(1,200 m away), C(1,400 m away) and D(2,200 m away) was identified. In HCl, appropriate transition point was after 15 min, after 16 min, after 17 min, after 20 min in order by A, B, C and D. In HF, appropriate transition point was before 1 min or after 16 min, before 4 min or after 19 min, before 5 min or after 20 min, before 14 min or after 26 min in order by A, B, C and D. In NH3, appropriate transition point at A was before 4 min or after 16. Others are not in chemical cloud. This study confirmed the transition point to minimize the cumulative toxic load can be obtained by quantitative method. Through this, it might be possible to select evacuation method quantitatively that cumulative toxic load are minimal. In addition, if the shelter-in-place is maintained without transition to outdoor evacuation, the cumulative toxic load will increase more than outdoor evacuation. Therefore, it was confirmed that actions to reduce the concentration of chemicals in the room were necessary, such as conducting ventilation after the chemical cloud passed through the site.

Development of integrated disaster mapping method (I) : expansion and verification of grid-based model (통합 재해지도 작성 기법 개발(I) : 그리드 기반 모형의 확장 및 검증)

  • Park, Jun Hyung;Han, Kun-Yeun;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this study is to develop a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that can perform accurate flood analysis with simple input data. The 2D flood inundation models currently used to create flood forecast maps require complex input data and grid generation tools. This sometimes requires a lot of time and effort for flood modeling, and there may be difficulties in constructing input data depending on the situation. In order to compensate for these shortcomings, in this study, a grid-based model that can derive accurate and rapid flood analysis by reflecting correct topography as simple input data was developed. The calculation efficiency was improved by extending the existing 2×2 sub-grid model to a 5×5. In order to examine the accuracy and applicability of the model, it was applied to the Gamcheon Basin where both urban and river flooding occurred due to Typhoon Rusa. For efficient flood analysis according to user's selection, flood wave propagation patterns, accuracy and execution time according to grid size and number of sub-grids were investigated. The developed model is expected to be highly useful for flood disaster mapping as it can present the results of flooding analysis for various situations, from the flood inundation map showing accurate flooding to the flood risk map showing only approximate flooding.

A Study on the Flooding Risk Assessment of Energy Storage Facilities According to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 에너지 저장시설 침수 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Seong-Reul
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: For smooth performance of flood analysis due to heavy rain disasters at energy storage facilities in the Incheon area, field surveys, observational surveys, and pre-established reports and drawings were analyzed. Through the field survey, the characteristics of pipelines and rivers that have not been identified so far were investigated, and based on this, the input data of the SWMM model selected for inundation analysis was constructed. Method: In order to determine the critical duration through the probability flood analysis according to the calculation of the probability rainfall intensity by recurrence period and duration, it is necessary to calculate the probability rainfall intensity for an arbitrary duration by frequency, so the research results of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs were utilized. Result: Based on this, the probability of rainfall by frequency and duration was extracted, the critical duration was determined through flood analysis, and the rainfall amount suggested in the disaster prevention performance target was applied to enable site safety review. Conclusion: The critical duration of the base was found to be a relatively short duration of 30 minutes due to the very gentle slope of the watershed. In general, if the critical duration is less than 30 minutes, even if flooding occurs, the scale of inundation is not large.

Numerical study on basal heave stability of a circular vertical shaft constructed in clay (연약 점성토 지반에 시공되는 원형 수직구의 히빙 안정성에 대한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Kang, Seok-Jun;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.231-245
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    • 2022
  • When vertical shafts are constructed in soft clay with low strength, there is a risk of basal heave, which causes the excavation surface to heave due to the low bearing capacity of the ground against the imbalance of earth pressure at the excavation surface. Methods of deriving a safety factor have been proposed to evaluate the stability against the basal heave. However, there are limitations in that it is difficult to accurately evaluate the heave stability because many assumptions are included in the theoretical derivation. In this study, assuming that a circular vertical shaft is constructed in soft clay, the existing safety factor equation proposed through a theoretical approach was supplemented. Bearing capacity according to the shaft geometry, inhomogeneity of the soil, and the effect of soil plug were considered theoretically and applied in a previous safety factor equation. A three-dimensional numerical analysis was conducted to simulate the occurrence of basal heave and review the supplemented equation through various case studies. Several series of case studies were conducted targeting various factors affecting heave stability. It was verified that the additionally considered characteristics were properly reflected in the supplemented equation. Furthermore, the effects of each factor constituting the safety factor equation were examined using the results of the numerical analysis performed by simulating various cases. It was confirmed that considering the undrained shear strength increment according to depth had the most significant effect on the calculation of the safety factor.

Running Safety and Ride Comfort Prediction for a Highspeed Railway Bridge Using Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 고속철도교량의 주행안전성 및 승차감 예측)

  • Minsu, Kim;Sanghyun, Choi
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.375-380
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    • 2022
  • High-speed railway bridges carry a risk of dynamic response amplification due to resonance caused by train loads, and running safety and riding comfort must therefore be reviewed through dynamic analysis in accordance with design codes. The running safety and ride comfort calculation procedure, however, is time consuming and expensive because dynamic analyses must be performed for every 10 km/h interval up to 110% of the design speed, including the critical speed for each train type. In this paper, a deep-learning-based prediction system that can predict the running safety and ride comfort in advance is proposed. The system does not use dynamic analysis but employs a deep learning algorithm. The proposed system is based on a neural network trained on the dynamic analysis results of each train and speed of the railway bridge and can predict the running safety and ride comfort according to input parameters such as train speed and bridge characteristics. To confirm the performance of the proposed system, running safety and riding comfort are predicted for a single span, straight simple beam bridge. Our results confirm that the deck vertical displacement and deck vertical acceleration for calculating running safety and riding comfort can be predicted with high accuracy.