• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk calculation

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Collision Risk Analysis in Busan Harbour

  • Gug, Seung-Gi;Fukuda, Gen;Cho, A-Ra;Park, Hye-Ri
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.53-57
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    • 2014
  • This thesis, concentrates on marine collision risks of the area divided by cells. Using a gas molecular collision calculation model, a collision risk model is proposed. Collision risk is estimated by relative angle, relative speed, and ship's density in the cell. For one week, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data was collected and analyzed on the Busan North Port area. The results indicate a high-risk area at the sea route connection point in Busan North Port. It also shows that twilight is the time of day when most collisions occur. This means that the area is high risk due to the number of collisions and other dangerous factors related to twilight. Although there is still need to consider other risks such as grounding risks, the results of this study are useful to for plotting a risk map for the port.

Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants (화력발전설비 위험도 평가를 통한 기기별 정비주기 예측)

  • Song, Gee Wook;Kim, Bum Shin;Choi, Woo Song;Park, Myung Soo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.1291-1296
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    • 2013
  • Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (POF) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RBI is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the POF and COF can be assessed for each failure. During POF and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the POF is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided.

A Study on Risk Assessment of GHG Inventory Verification (온실가스 인벤토리 검증의 위험성평가에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-Bok;Kim, Geon-Ho;Lee, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Eun-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.203-208
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    • 2009
  • Government and company are unfolding greenhouse gas reduction activity to prevent the effects of global warming. Also, verification business through greenhouse gas inventory construction is spreaded variously. Greenhouse gas verification proceeds by document examination, risk analysis, field survey. Document investigates emission information, calculation standard, emission report, data management system. And through risk assessment result, establish field verification plan. Through study on risk assessment of greenhouse gas inventory verification, wish to reduce risk of verification.

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Risk Prediction Process for Access to Hazard Workplaces in Construction Sites (건설현장 내 위험작업구역 접근 시 위험도 예측 프로세스)

  • Ha, Min-woo;Cho, Yu-jin;Son, Seok-hyun;Han, Seung-woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.69-70
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    • 2020
  • Accidents in the construction industry are very high compared to other industries, and the number is also increasing steeply every year. Relevant studies were limited for solving the problems. The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive risk prediction process for personnel deployed at construction sites on safety management. First of all, the variables were divided into fixed, real-time and working types variables, and the relevant comprehensive data were collected. Second, the probability of a disaster was derived based on the collected data, and weights for each variable were calculated using the dummy regression analysis method using statistical methodology. Lastly, the resulting weighting and disaster probability equation was constructed, and The Final Risk Calculation Formula was developed. The Final Risk Calculation Formula presented in this study is expected to have a significant impact on the establishment of effective safety management measures to prevent possible safety accidents at construction sites

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GMP Calculation Process in CM at Risk for Public Construction Project (공공 건설사업 CM at Risk 적용시 GMP 산출 프로세스)

  • Kim, Gun-Sung;Jin, Zheng-Xun;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.48-49
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    • 2020
  • Recently the diversification of construction market and the continuous reduction of construction amount are raising the need of alternative delivery method in the construction industry. The foreign advanced companies actively adopted the CM at Risk delivery method where they perform the service of agent CM in the design phase, and agree GMP(Guaranteed Maximum Price) with the client at the time of 50~80% completion of design. Even in Korea they began to apply that method to pilot projects. In CM at Risk, through the early participation of builder, the level of design completion can be improved and the change order and construction period delay can be minimized. On the other hand, GMP is usually calculated when the design is about 80% complete, so there is uncertainty in the construction cost. Therefore, in this research, the increased amounts of construction cost are analyzed in a number of public construction projects, and GMP calculation process is proposed using the analysis results and CBR(Case-Based Reasoning) technique to reduce the construction cost increase in the construction phase.

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An Analysis of the Importance of the Risk Factors Influencing the Calculation of the Subcontract Construction Bidding Cost (건설공사 하도급 입찰단가 산정에 영향을 미치는 리스크 요인의 중요도 분석)

  • Lee, Sung-Goo;Park, Tae-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2007
  • The construction environment has the trend of oversizing and professionalizing, the increase of the construction period, and the risk factors and the uncertain factors which are important in the construction bid. The misunderstanding and the lack of knowledge of the subcontractor result in the decrease of the profit or the deficit. In conclusion, these are supposed to give the financial burden to the subcontractor. So, it is very important to predict the construction preparation cost calculation by the risk factors in the bidding stage and to calculate the bid unit cost considering the target profit of the subcontractor in the process of the mutual agreement and performance of the contract. In these points of view, this study analyzes how the importance of the risks influencing the bidding cost calculation affect the construction cost, and this analysis can be used as the basic data to establish the suitable bid strategy of the subcontractor.

Relative Location based Risk Calculation to Prevent Identity Theft in Electronic Payment Systems (전자지불거래에서 상대위치와 연동한 도용 위험성 산출방법)

  • Suh, Hyo-Joong;Hwang, Hoyoung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.455-461
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    • 2020
  • Electronic payment system using Internet banking is a very important application for users of e-commerce environment. With rapidly growing use of fintech applications, the risk and damage caused by malicious hacking or identity theft are getting significant. To prevent the damage, fraud detection system (FDS) calculates the risk of the electronic payment transactions using user profiles including types of goods, device status, user location, and so on. In this paper, we propose a new risk calculation method using relative location of users such as SSID of wireless LAN AP and MAC address. Those relative location information are more difficult to imitate or copy compared with conventional physical location information like nation, GPS coordinates, or IP address. The new method using relative location and cumulative user characteristics will enable stronger risk calculation function to FDS and thus give enhanced security to electronic payment systems.

The recent trend of prenatal screening (산전 검진의 최신 지견)

  • Hwang, Do-Yeong
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2008
  • Twenty years have passed since a prenatal screening for Down syndrome and neural tube defect was applied to obstetric field. The Quad test (AFP, hCG, uE3, Inhibin-A) of the second trimester and the combination test (PAPP-A, hCG, NT) of the first trimester became popular now. The recent trend of prenatal screening is to combine these two screening tests together in order to increase a detection rate of Down syndrome. Three types of screening methods are introduced as follows; integrated test, sequential test and contingent test. In addition to combination of each test, an incorporation of characteristic ultrasound findings of Down syndrome is suggested for its risk calculation. The absence of fetal nasal bone would be a very useful marker especially in the first trimester screening test. According to a change of way calculating risk of Down syndrome, obstetrician's role will be more increased not by passive participation, but by active participation using ultrasound in risk calculation.

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Determining Contingency Ranking Using the Probabilistic Method of the Power System (확률적 방법을 이용한 전력계통의 상정사고 순위 결정)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Young;Lee, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.07a
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    • pp.113-115
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    • 2003
  • The electric power industry throughout the world is undergoing considerable changes from the vertically integrated utility structure to the deregulated market. However, the deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper presents fast calculation method for determining contingency ranking using the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI). The probabilistic risk index can be classified into normal weather and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking requiring for security under the deregulated electricity market.

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A Study on Intellgence Emergency Guide Line System (지능형 피난유도선 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Yong-Gyu;Kim, Suk-Eun;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2010
  • Government and company are unfolding greenhouse gas reduction activity to prevent the effects of global warming. Also, verification business through greenhouse gas inventory construction is spreaded variously. Greenhouse gas verification proceeds by document examination, risk analysis, field survey. Document investigates emission information, calculation standard, emission report, data management system. And through risk assessment result, establish field verification plan. Through study on risk assessment of greenhouse gas inventory verification, wish to reduce risk of verification.

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