• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment Model

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Study of Relationship Between Illness Perception and Delay in Seeking Help for Breast Cancer Patients Based on Leventhal's Self-Regulation Model

  • Attari, Seyedeh Maryam;Ozgoli, Giti;Solhi, Mahnaz;Majd, Hamid Alavi
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup3
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2016
  • One of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in breast cancer patients is delay in seeking help. Leventhal's self-regulation model provides an appropriate framework to assess delay in seeking help. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between "illness perception" and "help seeking delay" in breast cancer patients based on Leventhal's self-regulation model. In this correlational descriptive study with convenience sampling conducted in 2013, participants were 120 women with breast cancer who were diagnosed in the last year and referred to chemotherapy and radiotherapy centers in Rasht, Iran. Data collection scales included demographic data, Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R)and a researcher made questionnaire to measure the delay in seeking help. Pre-hospital delay (help seeking delay) was evaluated in 3 phases (assessment, disease, behavior). The data were analyzed using SPSS-19. The mean (SD) age calculated for the patients was $47.3{\pm}10.2$. Some 43% of the patients had a high school or higher education level and 82% were married. The "pre-hospital delay" was reported ${\geq}3months$. Logistic regression analysis showed that none of the illness perception components were correlated with appraisal and behavioral delay phases. In the illness delay phase, "time line" (p-value =0.04) and "risk factors"(p-value=0.03) had significant effects on reducing and "psychological attributions" had significant effects on increasing the delay (p-value =0.01). "Illness coherence" was correlated with decreased pre-hospital patient delay (p-value<0.01). Women's perceptions of breast cancer influences delay in seeking help. In addition to verifying the validity of Leventhal's self-regulation model in explaining delay in seeking help, the results signify the importance of the "illness delay phase" (decision to seek help) and educational interventions-counseling for women in the community.

Establishment of the Korean total diet study (TDS) model in consideration to pesticide intake (한국형 총식이섭취조사(Total Diet Study, TDS) 모델 확립을 위한 농약섭취수준에 대한 접근)

  • Yang, An-Gel;Shim, Ki-Hoon;Choi, Ok-Ja;Park, Jong-Hyouk;Do, Jung-Ah;Oh, Jae-Ho;Hwang, In Gyun;Shim, Jae-Han
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to establish Korean total diet study (TDS) model for estimating pesticide residue in food samples. In addition, pesticide residues of food samples were monitored by setting the standards of established Korean total diet study model. For monitoring, first step were selection of total 102 species food samples, second step were selection of total 70 species food samples, and third step were selection of total 12 representative diet and 109 species food samples. Ninety-eight pesticides were analyzed using $GC-{\mu}ECD$, GC-MS, and LC-MS/MS after QuEChERS sample preparation method. The residue levels in detected food samples were below the maximum residue limit (MRL). Establishment of the Korean total diet study model means providing safe food for consumers, secure the safety of food samples and provide ongoing information to agricultural producers about use of pesticides.

Estimation of mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster and predicting the potential distribution for Ipomoea triloba using Proto3 model in the Korean peninsula (격자형 한반도 최저극값온도 예측 및 Proto3를 활용한 별나팔꽃 (Ipomoea triloba)의 서식적합지 예측)

  • Lee, Yong Ho;Choi, Tae Yang;Lee, Ga Eun;Na, Chea Sun;Hong, Sun Hee;Lee, Do-Hun;Oh, Young Ju
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.759-768
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to estimate the mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster and predict the potential distribution of the invasive plant, Ipomoea triloba, on the Korean peninsula. We collected annual extreme minimum temperature and mean coldest month minimum temperature data from 129 weather stations on the Korean peninsula from 1990-2019 and used this data to create a linear regression model. The min temperature of the coldest month raster from Worldclim V2 were used to estimate a 30 second spatial resolution, mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster of the Korean peninsula using a regression model. We created three climatic rasters of the Korean peninsula for use with the Proto3 species distribution model and input the estimated mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster, a Köppen-Geiger climate class raster from Beck et al. (2018), and we also used the mean annual precipitation from Worldclim V2. The potential distribution of I. triloba was estimated using the Proto3 model with 117 occurrence points. As a result, the estimated area for a potential distribution of I. triloba was found to be 50.7% (111,969 ㎢) of the Korean peninsula.

Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

Development of a Decision Making Model for Construction Management in LNG Plant Construction - Focused on Construction Stage - (LNG 공사의 건설사업관리 의사결정지원모델 개발 - 시공단계 중심 -)

  • Park, Hwan Pyo;Han, Jae Goo;Chin, Kyung Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2014
  • LNG plant projects tend to be implemented in overseas owing to its characteristics, so their project management scheme is somewhat different from those of general projects. Value chain in a LNG plant project includes exploration/production of gases, physical liquefaction/chemical conversion processes, transportation and storage. Key factors in the chain include liquefaction process (including ultra-low temperature liquefaction) to convert natural gas into liquid materials or fuel, and Front End Engineering Design (FEED) package, as well as Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) technology comprising control, operation and construction. Success of a complex LNG plant project implemented in overseas depends on decision-making process in project management. Accordingly, to develop a decision-making model in of plant construction, the study extracted none factors in project management by EPC stage and assessed importance of each factor. The result showed that items in both project management and project risk management are important. Especially, the study developed a decision-making model in the construction stage of a LNG plant project based on the project management factors and importance assessment. The developed decision-making model would lay groundwork in building a decision-making system in construction stage of project management.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

Fate Analysis and Impact Assessment for Vehicle Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) Emitted from Metropolitan City Using Multimedia Fugacity Model (다매체거동모델을 이용한 대도시 자동차 배출 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) 거동 해석 및 영향평가)

  • Rhee, Gahee;Hwangbo, Soonho;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.479-495
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to research the multimedia fate modeling, concentration distribution and impact assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from automobiles, which are known as carcinogenic and mutation chemicals. The amount of emissions of PAHs was determined based on the census data of automobiles at a target S-city and emission factors of PAHs, where multimedia fugacity modeling was conducted by the restriction of PAHs transfer between air-soil at the impervious area. PAHs' Concentrations and their distributions at several environmental media were predicted by multimedia fugacity model (level III). The residual amounts and the distributions of PAHs through mass transfer of PAHs between environment media were used to assess the health risk of PAHs at unsteady state (level IV), where the sensitivity analyses of the model parameter of each variable were conducted based on Monte Carlo simulation. The experimental result at S-city showed that Fluoranthene among PAHs substances are the highest residual concentrations (60%, 53%, 32% and 34%) at all mediums (atmospheric, water, soil, sediment), respectively, where most of the PAHs were highly accumulated in the sediment media (more than 80%). A result of PAHs concentration changes in S-city over the past 34 years identified that PAHs emissions from all environmental media increased from 1983 to 2005 and decreased until 2016, where the emission of heavy-duty vehicle including truck revealed the largest contribution to the automotive emissions of PAHs at all environment media. The PAHs concentrations in soil and water for the last 34 years showed the less value than the legal standards of PAHs, but the PAHs in air exceeded the air quality standards from 1996 to 2016. The result of this study is expected to contribute the effective management and monitoring of toxic chemicals of PAHs at various environment media of Metropolitan city.

Factors Influencing the Adoption of Location-Based Smartphone Applications: An Application of the Privacy Calculus Model (스마트폰 위치기반 어플리케이션의 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인: 프라이버시 계산 모형의 적용)

  • Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.7-29
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    • 2012
  • Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

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Development Process and Methods of Audit and Certification Toolkit for Trustworthy Digital Records Management Agency (신뢰성 있는 전자기록관리기관 감사인증도구 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Rieh, Hae-young;Kim, Ik-han;Yim, Jin-Hee;Shim, Sungbo;Jo, YoonSun;Kim, Hyojin;Woo, Hyunmin
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.25
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    • pp.3-46
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    • 2010
  • Digital records management is one whole system in which many social and technical elements are interacting. To maintain the trustworthiness, the repository needs periodical audit and certification. Thus, individual electronic records management agency needs toolkit that can be used to self-evaluate their trustworthiness continuously, and self-assess their atmosphere and system to recognize deficiencies. The purpose of this study is development of self-certification toolkit for repositories, which synthesized and analysed such four international standard and best practices as OAIS Reference Model(ISO 14721), TRAC, DRAMBORA, and the assessment report conducted and published by TNA/UKDA, as well as MoRe2 and current national laws and standards. As this paper describes and demonstrate the development process and the framework of this self-certification toolkit, other electronic records management agencies could follow the process and develop their own toolkit reflecting their situation, and utilize the self-assessment results in-house. As a result of this research, 12 areas for assessment were set, which include (organizational) operation management, classification system and master data management, acquisition, registration and description, storage and preservation, disposal, services, providing finding aids, system management, access control and security, monitoring/audit trail/statistics, and risk management. In each 12 area, the process map or functional charts were drawn and business functions were analyzed, and 54 'evaluation criteria', consisted of main business functional unit in each area were drawn. Under each 'evaluation criteria', 208 'specific evaluation criteria', which supposed to be implementable, measurable, and provable for self-evaluation in each area, were drawn. The audit and certification toolkit developed by this research could be used by digital repositories to conduct periodical self-assessment of the organization, which would be used to supplement any found deficiencies and be used to reflect the organizational development strategy.

Predictive Modeling for the Growth of Salmonella Enterica Serovar Typhimurium on Lettuce Washed with Combined Chlorine and Ultrasound During Storage

  • Park, Shin Young;Zhang, Cheng Yi;Ha, Sang-Do
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.374-379
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    • 2019
  • This study developed predictive growth models of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium on lettuce washed with chlorine (100~300 ppm) and ultrasound (US, 37 kHz, 380 W) treatment and stored at different temperatures ($10{\sim}25^{\circ}C$) using a polynomial equation. The primary model of specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) showed a good fit ($R^2{\geq}0.92$) with a Gompertz equation. A secondary model was obtained using a quadratic polynomial equation. The appropriateness of the secondary SGR and LT model was verified by coefficient of determination ($R^2=0.98{\sim}0.99$ for internal validation, 0.97~0.98 for external validation), mean square error (MSE=-0.0071~0.0057 for internal validation, -0.0118~0.0176 for external validation), bias factor ($B_f=0.9918{\sim}1.0066$ for internal validation, 0.9865~1.0205 for external validation), and accuracy factor ($A_f=0.9935{\sim}1.0082$ for internal validation, 0.9799~1.0137 for external validation). The newly developed models for S. Typhimurium could be incorporated into a tertiary modeling program to predict the growth of S. Typhimurium as a function of combined chlorine and US during the storage. These new models may also be useful to predict potential S. Typhimurium growth on lettuce, which is important for food safety purposes during the overall supply chain of lettuce from farm to table. Finally, the models may offer reliable and useful information of growth kinetics for the quantification microbial risk assessment of S. Typhimurium on washed lettuce.