• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment Model

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Application of Two-Dimensional Flow Analysis Model for Flood Risk Assessment in Flood Plain (둔치에서의 홍수위험도 평가를 위한 2차원 흐름해석모형의 적용)

  • Ku, Young Hun;Song, Chang Geun;Kim, Young Do
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.40-40
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    • 2015
  • 최근 기후변화로 인해 홍수의 발생빈도와 홍수량이 증가하고 있으며, 여름철 집중호우 및 태풍에 의해 하천의 둔치가 침수됨으로써 다양한 침수피해를 야기한다. 대하천 사업 이후 하천의 둔치를 활용한 체육시설, 자전거도로 및 생태공원과 같은 친수시설들이 조성되었으며 태풍으로 인한 하천의 홍수위 상승은 이러한 친수시설에 대한 직접적인 피해를 가져올 수 있다. 따라서 이와 같은 침수피해를 예측하기 위해서는 둔치를 포함한 복단면에서의 흐름해석을 통한 수리학적 영향을 분석해야하며, 둔치에서의 흐름양상은 주수로에 비해 수심이 얕고 흐름에 대한 저항이 크기 때문에 2차원 수리해석이 바람직한 것으로 제안되고 있다. 2차원 수리해석에 있어 하천의 홍수위 상승과 하강으로 인해 발생하는 둔치구간에서의 마름과 젖음 현상은 수치해의 발산을 야기하며, 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 다양한 마름/젖음 해석 기법에 대한 연구들이 진행되어 왔으며 일반적으로 마름/젖음에 대한 문제를 해결하는 방법은 마름/젖음에 상관없이 모든 부분에서 방정식을 푸는 박막기법과 해석영역으로부터 마름 부분을 제거하는 이동경계법으로 나눌 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 단기간에 수위가 급변하는 태풍사상에 대한 둔치에서의 홍수위험도를 평가하기 위해 마름/젖음 해석이 가능한 2차원 유한차분모형인 Nays2D 모형을 이용하여 마름/젖음에 대한 과거 선행연구들의 결과와 적용된 모형의 결과를 비교하여 모형의 적용성을 검증하였고, 검증된 모형을 강정-고령보에서부터 달성보 사이 구간에 적용하여 수리학적 영향을 분석하였다. 또한, 모형의 결과를 이용하여 홍수위험지수를 산정하였으며, 이를 통해 둔치구간에서의 홍수위험도 평가를 실시하였다.

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Detection of Emetic Bacillus cereus from Ready-to-eat Foods in Markets and its Production of Cereulide under Simulated Conditions

  • Kim, Heesun;Chang, Hyeja
    • Journal of the FoodService Safety
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2020
  • B. cereus-produced cereulide as an emetic toxin is commonly isolated in starch-based cooked foods. This study examined the prevalence of B. cereus from ready-to-eat foods in markets by polymerase chain reaction analysis and determined the relationship between the level of B. cereus and the quantity of cereulide in the sample after different storage times and temperatures. The prevalence of general B. cereus in 43 starch foods was 32.6%, and the level of B. cereus ranged from 0.5 to 1.95 log cfu/g, meeting the Korea Food Code Specifications of 3 log CFU/g of B. cereus. No samples revealed emetic B. cereus. Fried rice samples were inoculated with a cereulide-producing reference strain, B. cereus NCCP 14796, to determine the level of B. cereus and the quantity of cereulide in the samples after storage for 0, 4, 6, 8, 20, 24, 30, 48, 72, and 96 h at 7, 25, 35, and 57℃. The average levels of B. cereus at 7, 25, 35, and 57℃ were 4.38, 7.31, 7.88, and 3.82 log cfu/g, and the levels of cereulide were 150.41, 1680.70, 2652.65, and 77.83 ㎍/mL, respectively, showing a significant difference according to the incubation time (P<0.05) and temperature (P<0.001).

Analysis methodology of local damage to dry storage facility structure subjected to aircraft engine crash

  • Almomani, Belal;Kim, Tae-Yong;Chang, Yoon-Suk
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1394-1405
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    • 2022
  • The importance of ensuring the inherent safety and security has been more emphasized in recent years to demonstrate the integrity of nuclear facilities under external human-induced events (e.g. aircraft crashes). This work suggests a simulation methodology to effectively evaluate the impact of a commercial aircraft engine onto a dry storage facility. A full-scale engine model was developed and verified by Riera force-time history analysis. A reinforced concrete (RC) structure of a dry storage facility was also developed and material behavior of concrete was incorporated using three constitutive models namely: Continuous Surface Cap, Winfrith, and Karagozian & Case for comparison. Strain-based erosion limits for concrete were suitably defined and the local responses were then compared and analyzed with empirical formulas according to variations in impact velocity. The proposed methodology reasonably predicted such local damage modes of RC structure from the engine missile, and the analysis results agreed well with the calculations of empirical formulas. This research is expected to be helpful in reviewing the dry storage facility design and in the probabilistic risk assessment considering diverse impact scenarios.

A Study on the Safety Enhancement of Hydrogen Tube Trailer (수소운송설비 안전성 강화 방안 고찰)

  • Woo-Il, Park;Yeong-Hun, Kim;In-Woo, Lee;Seung-Kyu, Kang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.59-64
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    • 2022
  • Currently, 787 hydrogen tube trailer are in operation as of the end of October 2022, and a maximum of 340 kg is transported in a Type 1 seamless container at a pressure of up to 200 bar. The current safety management system and facility management are in good condition, but the system and facility structure improvement are needed to strengthen safety. Accordingly, this paper simulated and analyzed an accident case that occurred on the Daejeon-Dangjin highway on December 28, 2021 during the process of expanding the supply and operation of hydrogen tube trailer according to the hydrogen energy activation policy. Based on the results, suggestions were made on how to improve the safety of hydrogen tube trailer.

Flow Assessment and Prediction in the Asa River Watershed using different Artificial Intelligence Techniques on Small Dataset

  • Kareem Kola Yusuff;Adigun Adebayo Ismail;Park Kidoo;Jung Younghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.95-95
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    • 2023
  • Common hydrological problems of developing countries include poor data management, insufficient measuring devices and ungauged watersheds, leading to small or unreliable data availability. This has greatly affected the adoption of artificial intelligence techniques for flood risk mitigation and damage control in several developing countries. While climate datasets have recorded resounding applications, but they exhibit more uncertainties than ground-based measurements. To encourage AI adoption in developing countries with small ground-based dataset, we propose data augmentation for regression tasks and compare performance evaluation of different AI models with and without data augmentation. More focus is placed on simple models that offer lesser computational cost and higher accuracy than deeper models that train longer and consume computer resources, which may be insufficient in developing countries. To implement this approach, we modelled and predicted streamflow data of the Asa River Watershed located in Ilorin, Kwara State Nigeria. Results revealed that adequate hyperparameter tuning and proper model selection improve streamflow prediction on small water dataset. This approach can be implemented in data-scarce regions to ensure timely flood intervention and early warning systems are adopted in developing countries.

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Assessment of Near-Term Climate Prediction of DePreSys4 in East Asia (DePreSys4의 동아시아 근미래 기후예측 성능 평가)

  • Jung Choi;Seul-Hee Im;Seok-Woo Son;Kyung-On Boo;Johan Lee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.355-365
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    • 2023
  • To proactively manage climate risk, near-term climate predictions on annual to decadal time scales are of great interest to various communities. This study evaluates the near-term climate prediction skills in East Asia with DePreSys4 retrospective decadal predictions. The model is initialized every November from 1960 to 2020, consisting of 61 initializations with ten ensemble members. The prediction skill is quantitatively evaluated using the deterministic and probabilistic metrics, particularly for annual mean near-surface temperature, land precipitation, and sea level pressure. The near-term climate predictions for May~September and November~March averages over the five years are also assessed. DePreSys4 successfully predicts the annual mean and the five-year mean near-surface temperatures in East Asia, as the long-term trend sourced from external radiative forcing is well reproduced. However, land precipitation predictions are statistically significant only in very limited sporadic regions. The sea level pressure predictions also show statistically significant skills only over the ocean due to the failure of predicting a long-term trend over the land.

Effects of aerobic exercise training on the risk factors for liver diseases in elderly women with obesity and impaired fasting glucose: A pilot study

  • Park, Jae Ho;Kim, Hee-jae;Han, Aleum;Kang, Deuk-mo;Park, Sok
    • Korean Journal of Exercise Nutrition
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2019
  • [Purpose] In the present pilot study, we aimed to investigate the effects of the Silverrobics exercise program, which is similar to aerobic dance, on the factors related to glucose metabolism and liver enzymes. [Methods] Eight elderly women with obesity and impaired fasting glucose participated in the Silverrobics exercise program (60 minutes per session for five times a week for 8 weeks). The program was conducted at 50-60% of the heart rate reserve at 1 to 2 weeks and at 60-80% of the heart rate reserve at 3 to 8 weeks. To verify the effect of this 8-week exercise program on glucose metabolism and liver enzymes, blood analysis at pre- and post-training was performed. [Results] After the Silverrobics exercise program, there were significant decreases in the glucose (p<0.05), glycated hemoglobin A1c (p<0.05), 1,5-anhydroglucitol (p<0.05), and insulin levels (p<0.01) and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance score (p<0.05). However, there were no significant effects on the liver enzymes, except for alkaline phosphatase. The alkaline phosphatase level increased after the Silverrobics exercise program (p<0.05). [Conclusion] Although the Silverrobics exercise program had no beneficial effects on the liver enzymes, it may play an important role in preventing liver diseases considering the effects on glucose metabolism.

Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model (Bayesian 모형을 이용한 단일사상 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Lee, Jong-Seok;Na, Bong-Kil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2012
  • The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.

Responses of Misgurnus anguillicaudatus and Cyprinus carpio Fed on Disease Resistant(OsCK1) Rice Variety (병저항성 GM(OsCK1)벼가 미꾸리(Misgurnus anguillicaudatus)및 잉어(Cyprinus carpio)에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Sung-Dug;Lee, Kijong;Park, Soo-Yun;Lee, Dae-Yong;Sohn, Soo-In;Kim, Min-Young;Ryu, Tae-Hun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.231-239
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    • 2013
  • BACKGROUND: The disease resistant (OsCK1) rice was generated by inserting choline kinase (CK1) and phosphinothricin acetyltransferase (PAT) genes isolated from Oriza sativa and Streptomyces hygroscopicus into the genome of rice (Nakdongbyeo). With the potential problems of safety, the non-target organism evaluation is required as an essential element for the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) crops. In present study, we studied the effects on survival of Misgurnus anguillicaudatus and Cyprinus carpio, commonly used as a model organism in ecotoxicological studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: The M. anguillicaudatus and C. carpio were fed on disease resistant (OsCK1) rice and non-genetically modified (non-GM) rice (Nakdongbyeo) to 0, 10, 100, 1,000 and 5,000 mg/L, as treatment concentration respectively. The OsCK1 rice used for the test was confirmed to have the OsCK1/PAT gene expression by the PCR and ELISA analysis. Feeding test showed that no significant differences in cumulative immobility and abnormal response of M. anguillicaudatus and C. carpio fed on between OsCK1 rice and non-GM rice. The 96hr-$LC_{50}$ values showed no difference between OsCK1 rice (>5,000 mg/L) and non-GM rice (>5,000 mg/L). CONCLUSION(S): The results of this study suggested that there was no significant difference in toxicity for M. anguillicaudatus and C. carpio between OsCK1 rice and non-GM counterparts.

A decision-centric impact assessment of operational performance of the Yongdam Dam, South Korea (용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Daeha;Kim, Eunhee;Lee, Seung Cheol;Kim, Eunji;Shin, June
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2022
  • Amidst the global climate crisis, dam operation policies formulated under the stationary climate assumption could lead to unsatisfactory water management. In this work, we assessed status-quo performance of the Yongdam Dam in Korea under various climatic stresses in flood risk reduction and water supply reliability for 2021-2040. To this end, we employed a decision-centric framework equipped with a stochastic weather generator, a conceptual streamflow model, and a machine-learning reservoir operation rule. By imposing 294 climate perturbations to dam release simulations, we found that the current operation rule of the Yongdam dam could redundantly secure water storage, while inefficiently enhancing the supply reliability. On the other hand, flood risks were likely to increase substantially due to rising mean and variability of daily precipitation. Here, we argue that the current operation rules of the Yongdam Dam seem to be overly focused on securing water storage, and thus need to be adjusted to efficiently improve supply reliability and reduce flood risks in downstream areas.