• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment Model

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Desorption Characteristics and Bioavailability of Zn to Earthworm in Mine Tailings (광미내 Zn의 탈착 특성과 지렁이에 대한 생이용성)

  • Oh, Sang-Hwa;Shin, Won-Sik
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.38-52
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    • 2011
  • Sorption and sequential desorption experiments were conducted for Zn using a natural soil (NS) in background status by aging (1, 30 and 100 days). The sorption isotherm showed that Zn had high sorption capacity but low sorption affinity in NS. Sequential desorption was biphasic with appreciable amount of sorbed Zn residing in the desorption-resistant fraction after several desorption steps. The biphasic desorption behavior of Zn was characterized by a biphasic desorption model that includes a linear term to represent labile or easily-desorbing fraction and a Langmuirian-type term to represent desorption-resistant fraction. The biphasic desorption model indicated that the size of the maximum capacity of desorption-resistant fraction ($q^{irr}_{max}$) increased with aging in NS. Desorption kinetics and desorption-resistance of Zn in the soils collected from mine tailings (MA, MB and MC collected from surface, subsurface soils and mine waste, respectively) were investigated and compared to the bioavailability to earthworm (Eisenia fetida). Desorption kinetic data of Zn were fitted to several desorption kinetic models. The ratio ($q_{e,d}/q_0$) of remaining Zn at desorption equilibrium ($q_{e,d}$) to initial sorbed concentration ($q_0$) was in the range of 0.53~0.90 in the mine tailings which was higher than that in NS, except MA. The sequential desorption from the mine tailings with 0.01M Na$NO_3$ and 0.01M $CaCl_2$ showed that appreciable amounts of Zn are resistant to desorption due to aging or sequestration. The SM&T (Standard Measurements and Testing Programme of European Union) analysis showed that the sum of oxidizable (Step III) and residual (Step IV) fractions of Zn was linearly related with its desorption-resistance ($q^{irr}_{max}$) determined by the sequential desorption with 0.01M Na$NO_3$ ($R^2$= 0.9998) and 0.01M $CaCl_2$ ($R^2$= 0.8580). The earthworm uptake of Zn and the desorbed amount of Zn ($q_{desorbed}$ = $q_0-q_{e,d}$) in MB soil were also linearly related ($R^2$ = 0.899). Our results implicate that the ecological risk assessment of heavy metals would be possible considering the relation between desorption behaviors and bioavailability to earthworm.

Development and Assessment of Hedging Rule for Han River Reservoir System Operation against Severe Drought (한강수계 저수지군의 갈수대응 운영을 위한 Hedging Rule의 개발과 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Jeong Yup;Park, Myung Ky;Lee, Gi Ha;Jung, Kwan Sue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.10
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    • pp.891-906
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    • 2014
  • This study suggests the hedging rule of MIP (Mixed Integer Programing) in counting the risk evaluation criteria of the objective function and constraints in order to provide the optimum operating rule in reservoir system as constraining water shortage as much as possible which may happen in the downstream control point of water supply in the aspect of water system management. The proposed model is applied to the Han-river reservoir system for two testing periods (Case I: Jan. 1993~Dec. 1997, Case II: Jan. 1999~Dec. 2003). The model based on the hedging rule with trigger volume, estimated in this study shows that in Case I, the monthly minimum discharge was $310.6{\times}10^6m^3$ in the single operation, $56.3{\times}10^6m^3$ in the joint operation, and $317.5{\times}10^6m^3$ in the hedging rule and also, in Case II, the monthly minimum discharge was found to be $204.2{\times}10^6m^3$ in the single operation, $111.2{\times}10^6m^3$ in the joint operation, and $243.7{\times}10^6m^3$ in the hedging rule. In conclusion, the hedging rule, proposed in this study can decrease vulnerability while guarantees reliability and resiliency.

Spatial panel analysis for PM2.5 concentrations in Korea (공간패널모형을 이용한 국내 초미세먼지 농도에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Jong Hyun;Kim, Young Min;Kim, Yongku
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.473-481
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    • 2017
  • It is well known that the air quality of 92% of the world is known to exceed the standard of WTO and the death caused by air pollution is almost 6 million per year. The $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in Korea is the second most serious among the OECD countries following Turkey. Since the $PM_{2.5}$ has a direct effect on the respiratory system, it has been actively studied in domestic and foreign countries. But current research on the $PM_{2.5}$ is limited in weather factor or air pollutants. In this paper, we consider the influence of spatial neighbor with weather factor or air pollutants using spatial panel model. We applied the proposed method to 25 borough of Seoul in Korea. The result shows a significant effect of spatial neighbor on the $PM_{2.5}$ concentration fields.

Model Development of Nursing Care System for Women's Health : Based on Nurse-Midwifery Clinic (여성의 건강을 위한 간호전달체계 모형개발 - 조산원 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Yeong-Suk
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.133-145
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    • 1999
  • The purposesof the study are to analyze the community nursing center in U.S.A and to develop the model of nursing care system based on nurse-midwifery clinic in community for women's health in Korea. 1. In America nursing center is defined as nurse-anchored system of primary care delivery or neighborhood health center. Nursing centers are identified the following four types: (1) community outreach centers, which are similar to traditional public health clinics: (2) institutional-based centers following the mission of a large institution, such as a hospital or university: (3) wellness/health promotion centers, which offer screening, education, counseling, triage, and health maintenance services: and (4) independent practice. Nursing centers are a concept of services provided by nurses in practice arrangements in a community. Nursing centers offer a variety of services, ranging from primary care provided by advanced practice nurses with medical acute management and nursing care to the more traditional education, health promotion, screening wellness and coordination services. Some services, such as the care provided by advanced practice nurses are reimbursed under various insurance plan in some instances and states, where as others, such as preventive and educational services, are not. Thus, lack of reimbursement has threatened the survival of some centers. Licensing of nursing centers varies by state and program and accreditation of nursing centers is also limited. 52% of centers are affiliated with another facility and 48% are freestanding centers. The number of registered nurse at the nursing centers ranges from just one to 115, with a mean of eight RNs peragency and a median of three. Nursing centers avail ability varies: 14% are open 24 hours, 27% have variable short hours, 23% are open 6-7 days per week, and 36% are open Monday- Friday. As the result of my visiting three health centers in Seattle and San Francisco, the women's primary care nurse practitioners focus on a systematic and comprehensive assessment of the health status of women and diagnosis and management of common physical and psychosocial health concerns of women in ambulatory settings. Therapeutic nursing strategies are directed toward self-care, risk reoduction, health surveillance, stress reduction, healthy nutrition, social support, healthy coping, psychological well-being, and pharmacological therapy. They function as primary care providers for the well ness and illness care of women from adolescence through the older adult years and pregnant families. 2. In Korea a nurse-midwife practices independently for pregnant women's health including childbearing family at her own clinic in community. Her services are reimbursed under national health insurance but they are not paid on a fee-for-service schedule covering items. Analyzing the nursing centers in America, I suggest that nurse-midwifery clinics offer primary care for women and home care for chronic ill patients. The health law and health insurance policy should be reovised in order to expand nurse-midwife's and home care nurse's roles at nurse-midwifery clinic.

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Slow Sorption of Hydrophobic Organic Contaminants in Natural Soils (자연토양에서의 소수성 유기오염물질의 느린 흡착)

  • Shin, Won Sik;Park, Taehyo;Ahn, Taebong;Chun, HeeDong
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2001
  • Sorption studies were conducted to determine if slow sorption fraction is observed in recent1y deposited organic matter by studying wetland soils explicitly. Sorption characteristics of hydrophobic organic compounds (chlorobenzene and phenanthrene) in recently deposited freshwater marsh soils were determined using a batch sorption procedure. Relative indicators of organic matter age were assessed using several techniques including the ratio of elemental oxygen to carbon in the organic matter. Slow sorption characteristics for both surface marsh soil (top 0-2 cm, <5 years old) and deeper marsh soil (below 10-cm, >20 years old) were compared against relatively older PPI (Petro Processors, Inc. Superfund site) and BM (Bayou Manchac) soils to investigate whether soil age can cause differences in sorption of organic compounds in wetland soils. Increases in sorption non-linearity of slow sorption model parameters (increase in KF and decrease in N) explain the existence of slow sorption fraction. The results of slow sorption model indicates the presence of a sizable slow sorption fraction; 25.4 - 26.3% (chlorobenzene) and 1.4 - 1.9% (phenanthrene) of the sorbed mass in wetland soils and 40.0 - 55.93% (chlorobenzene) and 2.9 - 3.19% (phenanthrene) of the sorbed mass in PPI and BM soils, respectively. The slow sorption fraction increased in the order of surface < deeper < PPI < BM soil indicating that size of the slow sorption fraction increases with soil organic matter age.

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Study of flood prevention alternative priorities using MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) (MCDM을 이용한 홍수방어대안 우선순위 정립에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Donghwa;Jeong, Soonchan;Lee, Eunkyung;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.169-179
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    • 2017
  • Recently, due to global warming and climate change in Korea, local heavy storm occurs frequently. In this study, the risky areas for flooding in urban areas are analyzed for flood inundation based on two-dimensional urban flood runoff model (XP-SWMM) focusing on coastal high flood-risk urban areas. In addition, the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) technique is utilized in order to establish the flood defense structural measures. The alternative flood reduction method are compared and the optimum flood defense measures are selected. A simulation model was used with three structural flood prevention measures (drainage pipe construction, water detention, flood pumping station). In order to decrease the flooding area, flood assessment criteria are suggested (flooded area, maximum inundation depth, damaged residential area, construction cost). Priorities of alternatives are determined by using compromise programming. As a result, the optimal flood defence alternative suggested for Janghang Zone 1 is flood pumping station and for Janghang Zone 2, 3 are drainage pipe construction.

The Application of Fuzzy Logic to Assess the Performance of Participants and Components of Building Information Modeling

  • Wang, Bohan;Yang, Jin;Tan, Adrian;Tan, Fabian Hadipriono;Parke, Michael
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2018
  • In the last decade, the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) as a new technology has been applied with traditional Computer-aided design implementations in an increasing number of architecture, engineering, and construction projects and applications. Its employment alongside construction management, can be a valuable tool in helping move these activities and projects forward in a more efficient and time-effective manner. The traditional stakeholders, i.e., Owner, A/E and the Contractor are involved in this BIM system that is used in almost every activity of construction projects, such as design, cost estimate and scheduling. This article extracts major features of the application of BIM from perspective of participating BIM components, along with the different phrases, and applies to them a logistic analysis using a fuzzy performance tree, quantifying these phrases to judge the effectiveness of the BIM techniques employed. That is to say, these fuzzy performance trees with fuzzy logic concepts can properly translate the linguistic rating into numeric expressions, and are thus employed in evaluating the influence of BIM applications as a mathematical process. The rotational fuzzy models are used to represent the membership functions of the performance values and their corresponding weights. Illustrations of the use of this fuzzy BIM performance tree are presented in the study for the uninitiated users. The results of these processes are an evaluation of BIM project performance as highly positive. The quantification of the performance ratings for the individual factors is a significant contributor to this assessment, capable of parsing vernacular language into numerical data for a more accurate and precise use in performance analysis. It is hoped that fuzzy performance trees and fuzzy set analysis can be used as a tool for the quality and risk analysis for other construction techniques in the future. Baldwin's rotational models are used to represent the membership functions of the fuzzy sets. Three scenarios are presented using fuzzy MEAN, AND and OR gates from the lowest to intermediate levels of the tree, and fuzzy SUM gate to relate the intermediate level to the top component of the tree, i.e., BIM application final performance. The use of fuzzy MEAN for lower levels and fuzzy SUM gates to reach the top level suggests the most realistic and accurate results. The methodology (fuzzy performance tree) described in this paper is appropriate to implement in today's construction industry when limited objective data is presented and it is heavily relied on experts' subjective judgment.

Estimation of Ventilation Rates in Korean Homes Using Time-activity Patterns and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentration (시간활동양상 및 이산화탄소 농도를 이용한 한국 주택 환기량 추정)

  • Park, Jinhyeon;Ryu, Hyeonsu;Heo, Jung;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the ventilation rate of residential homes in Korea through tracer gas methods using indoor and outdoor concentrations of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) and $CO_2$ generation rates from breathing. Methods: In this study, we calculated the number of occupants in a home by time through data on the average number of people per household from the Korean National Statistical Office and also measured the amount of $CO_2$ generation by breathing to estimate the indoor $CO_2$ generation rate. To estimate the ventilation rate, several factors such as the $CO_2$ generation rate and average volume of residential house provided by the Korean National Statistical Office, indoor $CO_2$ concentrations measured by sensors, and outdoor $CO_2$ concentrations provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration, were applied to a mass balance model for residential indoor environments. Results: The average number of people were 2.53 per household and Koreans spend 61.0% of their day at home. The $CO_2$ generation rate from breathing was $13.9{\pm}5.3L/h$ during sleep and $15.1{\pm}5.7L/h$ in a sedentary state. Indoor and outdoor $CO_2$ concentrations were 849 ppm and 407 ppm, respectively. The ventilation rate in Korean residential houses calculated by the mass balance model were $42.1m^3/h$ and 0.71 air change per hour. Conclusions: The estimated ventilation rate tended to increase with an increase in the number of occupants. Since sensor devices were used to collect data, sustainable data could be collected to estimate the ventilation rate of Korean residential homes, which enables further studies such as on changes in the ventilation rate by season resulting from the activities of occupants. The results of this study could be used as a basis for exposure and risk assessment modeling.

Predicting the Fetotoxicity of Drugs Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 약물의 태아 독성 예측 연구)

  • Myeonghyeon Jeong;Sunyong Yoo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.490-497
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    • 2023
  • Pregnant women may need to take medications to treat preexisting diseases or diseases that develop during pregnancy. However, some drugs may be fetotoxic and lead to, for example, teratogenicity and growth retardation. Predicting the fetotoxicity of drugs is thus important for the health of the mother and fetus. The fetotoxicity of many drugs has not been established because various challenges hinder the ability of researchers to determine their fetotoxicity. The need exists for in silico-based fetotoxicity assessment models, as they can modernize the testing paradigm, improve predictability, and reduce the use of animals and the costs of fetotoxicity testing. In this study, we collected data on the fetotoxicity of drugs and constructed fetotoxicity prediction models based on various machine learning algorithms. We optimized the models for more precise predictions by tuning the hyperparameters. We then performed quantitative performance evaluations. The results indicated that the constructed machine learning-based models had high performance (AUROC >0.85, AUPR >0.9) in fetotoxicity prediction. We also analyzed the feature importance of our model's predictions, which could be leveraged to identify the specific features of drugs that are strongly associated with fetotoxicity. The proposed model can be used to prescreen drugs and drug candidates at a lower cost and in less time. It provides a predictive score for fetotoxicity risk, which may be beneficial in the design of studies on fetotoxicity in human pregnancy.

Study on the Consequence Effect Analysis & Process Hazard Review at Gas Release from Hydrogen Fluoride Storage Tank (최근 불산 저장탱크에서의 가스 누출시 공정위험 및 결과영향 분석)

  • Ko, JaeSun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.449-461
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    • 2013
  • As the hydrofluoric acid leak in Gumi-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do or hydrochloric acid leak in Ulsan, Gyeongsangnam-do demonstrated, chemical related accidents are mostly caused by large amounts of volatile toxic substances leaking due to the damages of storage tank or pipe lines of transporter. Safety assessment is the most important concern because such toxic material accidents cause human and material damages to the environment and atmosphere of the surrounding area. Therefore, in this study, a hydrofluoric acid leaked from a storage tank was selected as the study example to simulate the leaked substance diffusing into the atmosphere and result analysis was performed through the numerical Analysis and diffusion simulation of ALOHA(Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres). the results of a qualitative evaluation of HAZOP (Hazard Operability)was looked at to find that the flange leak, operation delay due to leakage of the valve and the hose, and toxic gas leak were danger factors. Possibility of fire from temperature, pressure and corrosion, nitrogen supply overpressure and toxic leak from internal corrosion of tank or pipe joints were also found to be high. ALOHA resulting effects were a little different depending on the input data of Dense Gas Model, however, the wind direction and speed, rather than atmospheric stability, played bigger role. Higher wind speed affected the diffusion of contaminant. In term of the diffusion concentration, both liquid and gas leaks resulted in almost the same $LC_{50}$ and ALOHA AEGL-3(Acute Exposure Guidline Level) values. Each scenarios showed almost identical results in ALOHA model. Therefore, a buffer distance of toxic gas can be determined by comparing the numerical analysis and the diffusion concentration to the IDLH(Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health). Such study will help perform the risk assessment of toxic leak more efficiently and be utilized in establishing community emergency response system properly.