• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Risk stratification

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Vehicular Collision Risk Assessment on the Highway Bridges in South Korea (국내 고속도로 교량의 차량 충돌 위험도 평가)

  • Min, Geun-Hyung;Kim, Woo-Seok;Cho, Jun-Sang;Gil, Heung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2016
  • Vehicle collision to bridges has been known as one of the causes of bridge collapse, and the emergency plans and disaster management has been recently emphasized to secure public safety. This study conducted risk assessment of vehicular collision to bridges for highway bridges in Korea. Risk assessment consists of three steps; preliminary risk analysis(PRA), simplified risk analysis(SRA) and detailed risk analysis(DRA). The PRA firstly screens out the possibility of occurrence of the event. The SRA identifies influencial factors to risk of the event and evaluates risk scores to determine risk levels and necessity of DRA that investigates the risk of the bridge in detail. This study focuses on the methodology of the risk assessment, especially the SRA, and the stratification methods which evaluate risk levels of vehicular collision. The analysis results were compared to the reported vehicular collision accidents. The proposed method can be utilized in similar disaster management area.

A predictive nomogram-based model for lower extremity compartment syndrome after trauma in the United States: a retrospective case-control study

  • Blake Callahan;Darwin Ang;Huazhi Liu
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to utilize the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database to identify risk factors associated with developing acute compartment syndrome (ACS) following lower extremity fractures. Specifically, a nomogram of variables was constructed in order to propose a risk calculator for ACS following lower extremity trauma. Methods: A large retrospective case-control study was conducted using the TQIP database to identify risk factors associated with developing ACS following lower extremity fractures. Multivariable regression was used to identify significant risk factors and subsequently, these variables were implemented in a nomogram to develop a predictive model for developing ACS. Results: Novel risk factors identified include venous thromboembolism prophylaxis type particularly unfractionated heparin (odds ratio [OR], 2.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.33-3.05; P<0.001), blood product transfusions (blood per unit: OR 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.18], P<0.001; platelets per unit: OR 1.16 [95% CI, 1.09-1.24], P<0.001; cryoprecipitate per unit: OR 1.13 [95% CI, 1.04-1.22], P=0.003). Conclusions: This study provides evidence to believe that heparin use and blood product transfusions may be additional risk factors to evaluate when considering methods of risk stratification of lower extremity ACS. We propose a risk calculator using previously elucidated risk factors, as well as the risk factors demonstrated in this study. Our nomogram-based risk calculator is a tool that will aid in screening for high-risk patients for ACS and help in clinical decision-making.

Post-polypectomy surveillance: the present and the future

  • Masau Sekiguchi;Takahisa Matsuda;Kinichi Hotta;Yutaka Saito
    • Clinical Endoscopy
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.489-495
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    • 2022
  • An appropriate post-polypectomy surveillance program requires the effectiveness of reducing colorectal cancer and safety. In addition, the post-polypectomy surveillance program should consider the burden of limited medical resource capacity, cost-effectiveness, and patient adherence. In this sense, a risk-stratified surveillance program based on baseline colonoscopy results is ideal. Major international guidelines for post-polypectomy surveillance, such as those from the European Union and the United States, have recommended risk-stratified surveillance programs. Both guidelines have recently been updated to better differentiate between high- and low-risk individuals. In both updated guidelines, more individuals have been downgraded to lower-risk groups that require less frequent or no surveillance. Furthermore, increased attention has been paid to the surveillance of patients who undergo serrated polyp removal. Previous guidelines in Japan did not clearly outline the risk stratification in post-polypectomy surveillance. However, the new colonoscopy screening and surveillance guidelines presented by the Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society include a risk-stratified post-polectomy surveillance program. Further discussion and analysis of unresolved issues in this field, such as the optimal follow-up after the first surveillance, the upper age limit for surveillance, and the ideal method for improving adherence to surveillance guidelines, are warranted.

5,10-Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Colon Cancer Risk: a Meta-analysis

  • Fang, Xin-Yu;Xu, Wang-Dong;Huang, Qian;Yang, Xiao-Ke;Liu, Yan-Yan;Leng, Rui-Xue;Pan, Hai-Feng;Ye, Dong-Qing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.19
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    • pp.8245-8250
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    • 2014
  • Previous studies investigating the association between 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene polymorphisms and colon cancer risk have generated conflicting results. The aim of our meta-analysis was to clarify the precise association. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify all relevant studies. Pooled odds ratio (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to estimate the strength of the association. In this meta-analysis, a total of 13 articles, involving 5,386 cases and 8,017 controls met the inclusion criteria. Overall, a significant association was found between colon cancer risk and the MTHFR C667 polymorphism (TT vs CC+CT: OR=0.79; 95%CI=0.65-0.96; p=0.017). Stratification by ethnicity revealed that MTHFRC667 was associated with colon cancer risk in the non-Asian group (TT vs CC+CT:OR=0.77, 95%CI=0.68-0.89, p=0.000; TT vs CC: OR=0.84, 95%CI=0.73-0.97, p=0.016). Stratification by source of control indicated that MTHFR C667 also correlated with colon cancer risk in the population-based subgroup (TT vs CC: OR=0.85, 95%CI=0.74-0.97, p=0.017; TT vs CC+CT: OR=0.78, 95%CI=0.68-0.89, p=0.000) and hospital-based subgroup (TT vs CC+CT: OR=0.65, 95%CI=0.49-0.86, p=0.003). However, risk was significantly increased for MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms and colon cancer risk in hospital-based studies (C vs A: OR=1.52, 95%CI=1.26-1.83, p=0.000; CC+AC vs AA: OR=1.93, 95%CI=1.47-2.49, p=0.000) but reduced in population-based studies (CC vs AA: OR=0.83, 95%CI=0.70-0.99, p=0.042). In conclusion, the results of our meta-analysis suggest that the MTHFR C667 polymorphism is associated with reduced colon cancer risk, especially for non-Asian populations.

IL-6-6331 (T/C, rs10499563) is Associated with Decreased Risk of Gastric Cancer in Northern Chinese

  • Yang, Li;Sun, Ming-Jun;Liu, Jing-Wei;Xu, Qian;Yuan, Yuan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.7467-7472
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    • 2013
  • Background: Polymorphisms of genes encoding cytokines could be potential biomarkers to predict risk of gastric cancer (GC). Here, we investigated the association between the IL-6 -6331 (T/C, rs10499563) polymorphism in its promoter region and GC risk. Methods: In this case-control study of 215 GC cases and 518 non-cancer controls, the IL-6 -6331 (T/C, rs10499563) polymorphism was genotyped by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Results: Individuals with the TC or CC genotype were associated with a significantly decreased risk of GC (OR=0.710, 95%CI: 0.504-0.999, P=0.049) compared with TT wild-type carriers. Ther C allele was also associated with significantly decreased risk of GC (OR=0.715, 95%CI: 0.536-0.954, P=0.023) compared with the T allele. In the stratification analysis, TC or CC genotypes were associated with significantly decreased GC risk in subgroups of males, people older than 60, and H. pylori-positive cases. However, no significant interaction was observed for TC or CC genotypes with H. pylori infection. On stratification with the Lauren classification, TC or CC genotypes were associated with significantly decreased risk of diffuse-type GC (OR=0.497, 95%CI: 0.266-0.925, P=0.027), also in subgroups of males, people older than 60, and H. pylori-positive cases. Conclusions: The IL-6 -6331 (T/C, rs10499563) polymorphism is associated with genetic susceptibility of GC and may have the potential to predict GC risk.

CT-Based Leiden Score Outperforms Confirm Score in Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events for Diabetic Patients with Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

  • Zinuan Liu;Yipu Ding;Guanhua Dou;Xi Wang;Dongkai Shan;Bai He;Jing Jing;Yundai Chen;Junjie Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.10
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    • pp.939-948
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Evidence supports the efficacy of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-based risk scores in cardiovascular risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to compare two CCTA-based risk score algorithms, Leiden and Confirm scores, in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and suspected CAD. Materials and Methods: This single-center prospective cohort study consecutively included 1241 DM patients (54.1% male, 60.2 ± 10.4 years) referred for CCTA for suspected CAD in 2015-2017. Leiden and Confirm scores were calculated and stratified as < 5 (reference), 5-20, and > 20 for Leiden and < 14.3 (reference), 14.3-19.5, and > 19.5 for Confirm. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as the composite outcomes of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization. The Cox model and Kaplan-Meier method were used to evaluate the effect size of the risk scores on MACE. The area under the curve (AUC) at the median follow-up time was also compared between score algorithms. Results: During a median follow-up of 31 months (interquartile range, 27.6-37.3 months), 131 of MACE were recorded, including 17 cardiovascular deaths, 28 nonfatal MIs, 64 unstable anginas requiring hospitalization, and 22 strokes. An incremental incidence of MACE was observed in both Leiden and Confirm scores, with an increase in the scores (log-rank p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, compared with Leiden score < 5, the hazard ratios for Leiden scores of 5-20 and > 20 were 2.37 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53-3.69; p < 0.001) and 4.39 (95% CI: 2.40-8.01; p < 0.001), respectively, while the Confirm score did not demonstrate a statistically significant association with the risk of MACE. The Leiden score showed a greater AUC of 0.840 compared to 0.777 for the Confirm score (p < 0.001). Conclusion: CCTA-based risk score algorithms could be used as reliable cardiovascular risk predictors in patients with DM and suspected CAD, among which the Leiden score outperformed the Confirm score in predicting MACE.

Lymph Node Ratio is More Predictive than Traditional Lymph Node Stratification in Lymph Node Positive Invasive Breast Cancer

  • Bai, Lian-Song;Chen, Chuang;Gong, Yi-Ping;Wei, Wen;Tu, Yi;Yao, Feng;Li, Juan-Juan;Wang, Li-Jun;Sun, Sheng-Rong
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.753-757
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    • 2013
  • Objective: To evaluate the relationships between lymph node ratio (LNR, the ratio of positive lymph nodes in excised axillary lymph nodes) and disease-free survival (DFS) by comparing with traditional absolute positive lymph node number (pN classification) for prediction of breast cancer (BC) progrnosis. Methods and Patients: We retrospectively reviewed patients who received comprehensive therapy in Department of Breast Surgery, Hubei Cancer Hospital, China from Jan 2002 to Dec 2006 (Group A), and Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, China from Jun 2008 to May 2012 (Group B). Patients were allocated to low-risk (${\leq}0.20$), intermediate-risk (> 0.20 but ${\leq}0.65$), high-risk (>0.65) groups by LNR. The primary endpoint was 5-DFS. Results: A total of 294 patients were included in our study. LNR was verified as a negative prognostic factor for DFS (P=0.002 in Group A, P<0.0001 in Group B). Then we found the effects of pN and LNR delamination on disease-free survival (DFS) had statistical significance (P=0.012 for pN and P=0.031 for LNR stratification in Group A, both of them P<0.001 in Group B). Compared to pN staging, LNR staging displayed superior performance in prognosis, the adjusted hazard ratio of recurrence being 2.07 (95%CI, 1.07 to 4.0) for intermediate risk group (P=0.030) and 2.44 (95%CI, 1.21 to 4.92) for high risk group (P=0.013) in Group A. Conclusions: LNR stratification proved an adverse prognostic factor of DFS in lymph nodes positive invasive BC using cut-off values 0.20 and 0.65, and was more predictive than traditional pN classification for 5-DFS.

Meta-analysis on risk stratification of malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

  • Roh, Young-Eun;Jang, Hyun Ji;Cho, Min-Jung
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.208-215
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    • 2017
  • Background: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a cardiomyopathy characterized by predominant right ventricular fibro-fatty replacement, right ventricular dysfunction and ventricular arrhythmias. It is a rare but important cause of sudden cardiac death in children and young adults. A meta-analysis on risk stratification of major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events indicating the need for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in ARVC was performed. Methods: The pubmed database was searched from its inception to May 2015. Of the 433 citations identified, 12 were included in this meta-analysis. Data regarding major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events were retrieved in 817 subjects from the studies. For the variables, a combined odds ratio (OR) was calculated using a fixed-effects meta-analysis. Results: Extensive right ventricular dysfunction (OR, 2.44), ventricular late potential (OR, 1.66), inducible ventricular tachyarrhythmia during electrophysiology study (OR, 3.67), non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (OR, 3.78), and history of fatal event/sustained VT (OR, 5.66) identified as significant risk factors (p<0.0001). Conclusion: This meta-analysis shows that extensive right ventricular dysfunction, ventricular late potential, inducible ventricular tachyarrhythmia during electrophysiological study, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and history of sustained ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation are consistently reported risk factors of major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events indicating implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in patients with ARVC.

Association of TERT rs2736098 Polymorphism with Cancer Risk: a Meta-analysis

  • Zhang, Xiao-Jing;Xu, Zhi;Gong, Yong-Ling;Tang, Cui-Ju;Chen, Jin-Fei
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.4943-4946
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    • 2012
  • Studies have reported an association between the TERT rs2736098 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and cancer susceptibility, but the results remain inconclusive. Toprovide a more precise estimation of the relationship, a meta-analysis of 8 published studies including 8,070 cases and 10,239 controls was performed. Stratification by sample size, genotyping method, source of controls and ethnicity were used to explore the source of heterogeneity. In the overall analysis, no significant association was found between the TERT rs2736098 polymorphism and cancer risk. However, the result showed the rs2736098 was significantly associated with an increased cancer risk and the heterogeneity was effectively decreased for homozygote comparison by removal of two studies: OR = 1.337 (95% CI = 1.183-1.511; Pheterogeneity = 0.087). In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, a significantly increased risk of cancers was found among Asians (OR = 1.413, 95% CI = 1.187-1.683 for AA versus GG). Our meta-analysis did not show that the TERT rs2736098 plays an important role in cancer risk. More studies with larger sample size and well-matched controls are needed to confirm the findings.

Coronary Artery Calcium Data and Reporting System (CAC-DRS): A Primer

  • Parveen Kumar;Mona Bhatia
    • Journal of Cardiovascular Imaging
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2023
  • The Coronary Artery Calcium Data and Reporting System (CAC-DRS) is a standardized reporting method for calcium scoring on computed tomography. CAC-DRS is applied on a per-patient basis and represents the total calcium score with the number of vessels involved. There are 4 risk categories ranging from CAC-DRS 0 to CAC-DRS 3. CAC-DRS also provides risk prediction and treatment recommendations for each category. The main strengths of CAC-DRS include a detailed and meaningful representation of CAC, improved communication between physicians, risk stratification, appropriate treatment recommendations, and uniform data collection, which provides a framework for education and research. The major limitations of CAC-DRS include a few missing components, an overly simple visual approach without any standard reference, and treatment recommendations lacking a basis in clinical trials. This consistent yet straightforward method has the potential to systemize CAC scoring in both gated and non-gated scans.