• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Propagation

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The Risk Assessment of Tunnel Fire Through Real Scale Fire Test (실물터널 화재실험을 통한 터널화재 위험도 평가)

  • 최준석;최병일;김명배;한용식;장용재;이유환;황낙순;김필영
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 2002
  • The real scale tunnel fire tests are carried out for the first time in domestic range to assess the extent of risk in the tunnel fire. The tunnel dimension is 465 m in length, 9.2 m in width and 6.5 m in height. Gasoline pools with 0.25 MW∼2.5 MW size and a 1500CC passenger car are used as fire sources. Six jet fans are used to change the flow velocity inside the tunnel. Temperatures at total 86 points in the tunnel are measured to find the temperature distribution and smoke behavior in the real tunnel fire. In the experiment, it is examined that the important parameters to assess the extent of risk in tunnel fire such as back layering of smoke front, descending of smoke layer and the fire size of a real passenger car.

Decision Making of Seismic Performance Management Using Seismic Risk Assessment (지진위험도평가 방법을 이용한 내진성능관리 의사결정)

  • Kim, Dong Joo;Choi, Ji Hye;Kim, Byeong Hwa
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2019
  • The strategy for the management of earthquakes is shifting from post recovery to prevention; therefore, seismic performance management requires quantitative predictions of damage and the establishment of strategies for initial responses to earthquakes. Currently, seismic performance evaluation for seismic management in Korea consists of two stages: preliminary evaluation and detailed evaluation. Also, the priority of seismic performance management is determined in accordance with the preliminary evaluation. As a deterministic method, preliminary evaluation quantifies the physical condition and socio-economic importance of a facility by various predetermined indices, and the priority is decided by the relative value of the indices; however, with the deterministic method it is difficult to consider any uncertainty related to the return-year, epicenter, and propagation of seismic energy. Also this method cannot support tasks such as quantitative socio-economic damage and the provision of data for initial responses to earthquakes. Moreover, indirect damage is often greater than direct damage; therefore, a method to quantify damage is needed to enhance accuracy. In this paper, a Seismic Risk Assessment is used to quantify the cost of damage of road facilities in Pohang city and to support decision making.

Direct fault-tree modeling of human failure event dependency in probabilistic safety assessment

  • Ji Suk Kim;Sang Hoon Han;Man Cheol Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2023
  • Among the various elements of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), human failure events (HFEs) and their dependencies are major contributors to the quantification of risk of a nuclear power plant. Currently, the dependency among HFEs is reflected using a post-processing method in PSA, wherein several drawbacks, such as limited propagation of minimal cutsets through the fault tree and improper truncation of minimal cutsets exist. In this paper, we propose a method to model the HFE dependency directly in a fault tree using the if-then-else logic. The proposed method proved to be equivalent to the conventional post-processing method while addressing the drawbacks of the latter. We also developed a software tool to facilitate the implementation of the proposed method considering the need for modeling the dependency between multiple HFEs. We applied the proposed method to a specific case to demonstrate the drawbacks of the conventional post-processing method and the advantages of the proposed method. When applied appropriately under specific conditions, the direct fault-tree modeling of HFE dependency enhances the accuracy of the risk quantification and facilitates the analysis of minimal cutsets.

Is Trust Transitive and Composable in Social Networks?

  • Song, Hee Seok
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.191-205
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the topic of predicting interpersonal trust in online social networks is receiving considerable attention, because trust plays a critical role in controlling the spread of distorted information and vicious rumors, as well as reducing uncertainties and risk from unreliable users in social networks. Several trust prediction models have been developed on the basis of transitivity and composability properties of trust; however, it is hard to find empirical studies on whether and how transitivity and composability properties of trust are operated in real online social networks. This study aims to predict interpersonal trust between two unknown users in social networks and verify the proposition on whether and how transitivity and composability of trust are operated in social networks. For this purpose, we chose three social network sites called FilmTrust, Advogato, and Epinion, which contain explicit trust information by their users, and we empirically investigated the proposition. Experimental results showed that trust can be propagated farther and farther along the trust link; however, when path distance becomes distant, the accuracy of trust prediction lowers because noise is activated in the process of trust propagation. Also, the composability property of trust is operated as we expected in real social networks. However, contrary to our expectations, when the path is synthesized more during the trust prediction, the reliability of predicted trust did not tend to increase gradually.

A Method to Find the Core Node Engaged in Malware Propagation in the Malware Distribution Network Hidden in the Web (웹에 숨겨진 악성코드 배포 네트워크에서 악성코드 전파 핵심노드를 찾는 방안)

  • Kim Sung Jin
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2023
  • In the malware distribution network existing on the web, there is a central node that plays a key role in distributing malware. If you find and block this node, you can effectively block the propagation of malware. In this study, a centrality search method applied with risk analysis in a complex network is proposed, and a method for finding a core node in a malware distribution network is introduced through this approach. In addition, there is a big difference between a benign network and a malicious network in terms of in-degree and out-degree, and also in terms of network layout. Through these characteristics, we can discriminate between malicious and benign networks.

Correlation Analysis of KCNQ1 S140G Mutation Expression and Ventricular Fibrillation: Computer Simulation Study (KCNQ1 S140G 돌연변이 발현과 심실세동과의 상관관계 분석을 위한 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Jeong, Daun;Lim, Ki Moo
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 2017
  • Background and aims: The KCNQ1 S140G mutation involved in $I_{ks}$ channel is a typical gene mutation affecting atrial fibrillation. However, despite the possibility that the S140G gene mutation may affect not only atrial but also ventricular action potential shape and ventricular responses, there is a lack of research on the relationship between this mutation and ventricular fibrillation. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the correlation and the influence of the KCNQ1 S140G mutant gene on ventricular fibrillation through computer simulation studies. Method: This study simulated a 3-dimensional ventricular model of the wild type(WT) and the S140G mutant conditions. It was performed by dividing into normal sinus rhythm simulation and reentrant wave propagation simulation. For the sinus rhythm, a ventricular model with Purkinje fiber was used. For the reentrant propagation simulation, a ventricular model was used to confirm the occurrence of spiral wave using S1-S2 protocol. Results: The result showed that 41% shortening of action potential duration(APD) was observed due to augmented $I_{ks}$ current in S140G mutation group. The shortened APD contributed to reduce wavelength 39% in sinus rhythm simulation. The shortened wavelength in cardiac tissue allowed re-entrant circuits to form and increased the probability of sustaining ventricular fibrillation, while ventricular electrical propagation with normal wavelength(20.8 cm in wild type) are unlikely to initiate re-entry. Conclusion: In conclusion, KCNQ1 S140G mutation can reduce the threshold of the re-entrant wave substrate in ventricular cells, increasing the spatial vulnerability of tissue and the sensitivity of the fibrillation. That is, S140G mutation can induce ventricular fibrillation easily. It means that S140G mutant can increase the risk of arrhythmias such as cardiac arrest due to heart failure.

Consequence Analysis of Hydrogen Blended Natural Gas(HCNG) using 3D CFD Simulation (CFD를 활용한 수소-천연가스 혼합연료에 대한 피해영향 분석)

  • Kang, Seung-Kyu;Bang, Hyo-Jung;Jo, Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2013
  • This study evaluated comparison of the risk according to the type of fuel by three-dimensional simulation tool(FLACS). The consequence analysis of fire explosion and jet-fire was carried out in the layout of a typical high-pressure gas filling stations using CNG, hydrogen and 30%HCNG. Under the same conditions, hydrogen had a 30kPa maximum overpressure, CNG had a 0.4kPa and HCNG had a 3.5kPa. HCNG overpressure was 7.75 times higher than the CNG measurement, but HCNG overpressure was only 11.7% compared to hydrogen. In case of flame propagation, hydrogen had a very fast propagation characteristics. On the other hand, CNG and HCNG flame propagation velocity and distance tended to be relatively safe in comparison to hydrogen. The estimated flame boundary distance by jet-fire of hydrogen was a 5.5m, CNG was a 3.4m and HCNG was a 3.9m.

Establishment of propagation system for Alstroemeria plants by using hormones and gelling agents (호르몬 및 배지 고형제를 이용한 알스트로메리아 식물체 대량증식 체계 확립)

  • Yang, Hwan Rae;Lee, Sang Hee;Kim, Jong Bo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.167-171
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    • 2018
  • Alstroemeria (Alstroemeriaceae) is one of the most important cut flowers in international market. But, its characteristics such as low multiplication rates, time consuming process and high risk of carrying viral disease, in vitro propagation techniques based on rhizome meristems culture have been developed. In this study, we conducted this experiment to investigate the effect of hormones and gelling agents on the growth for Alstroemeria in vitro tissue culture. The highest number of shoot and root formation were obtained from the growth medium contains BA 1.0 mg/L and NAA 0.1 mg/L. When 0.25% of gelrite was added up to 50% shoots and roots length were observed compared to other gelling agents. Using these results, it is expected to contribute to the establishment of mass production systems in Alstroemeria.

A Study on the Modeling Mechanism for Security Risk Analysis in Information Systems (정보시스템에 대한 보안위험분석을 위한 모델링 기법 연구)

  • Kim Injung;Lee Younggyo;Chung Yoonjung;Won Dongho
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.12C no.7 s.103
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    • pp.989-998
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    • 2005
  • Information systems are today becoming larger and mostly broadband-networked. This exposes them at a higher risk of intrusions and hacking than ever before. Of the technologies developed to meet information system security needs, risk analysis is currently one of the most actively researched areas. Meanwhile, due to the extreme diversity of assets and complexity of network structure, there is a limit to the level of accuracy which can be achieved by an analysis tool in the assessment of risk run by an information system. Also, the results of a risk assessment are most oftennot up-to-date due to the changing nature of security threats. By the time an evaluation and associated set of solutions are ready, the nature and level of vulnerabilities and threats have evolved and increased, making them obsolete. Accordingly, what is needed is a risk analysis tool capable of assessing threats and propagation of damage, at the same time as security solutions are being identified. To do that, the information system must be simplified, and intrusion data must be diagrammed using a modeling technique this paper, we propose a modeling technique information systems to enable security risk analysis, using SPICE and Petri-net, and conduct simulations of risk analysis on a number of case studies.

An Integrative Method of FTA and FMEA for Software Security Analysis of a Smart Phone (스마트 폰의 소프트웨어 보안성 분석을 위한 FTA와 FMEA의 통합적 방법)

  • Kim, Myong-Hee;Toyib, Wildan;Park, Man-Gon
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.2 no.12
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    • pp.541-552
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    • 2013
  • Recently software security of the smart phone is an important issue in the field of information science and technology due to fast propagation of smart technology in our life. The smart phone as the security critical systems which are utilizing in terminal systems of the banking, ubiquitous home management, airline passengers screening, and so on are related to the risk of costs, risk of loss, risk of availability, and risk by usage. For the security issues, software hazard analysis of smart phone is the key approaching method by use of observed failures. In this paper, we propose an efficient integrative framework for software security analysis of the smart phone using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) to gain a convergence security and reliability analysis technique on hand handle devices. And we discuss about that if a failure mode effect analysis performs simpler, not only for improving security but also reducing failure effects on this smart device, the proposed integrative framework is a key solution.