• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Price

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An Exploratory Study on Tie-in Promotion (제휴 프로모션에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lee, Eun Mi;Park, Hyun Hee;Jeon, Jung Ok
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.27-50
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    • 2011
  • In today's market scenario, consumers are bombarded with similar promotional messages. It means that managers have to pay attention to promotion strategy to create strong effect as well as to break through the monotony. In this context, although there are strong needs concerning tie-in promotion, research investigating tie-in promotion is limited. Therefore, we extracted tie-in promotion tools and defined the concept of each tie-in promotion tool by analyzing various tie-in promotion cases which are executed in current market. In addition, consumer's recognition of tie-in promotion was investigated through the in-depth interview. The results of case analysis of tie-in promotion and in-depth interview are summarized as follows. First, 9 tie-in promotion tools were extracted: tie-in price reductions, tie-in coupons, tie-in membership, tie-in contests, tie-in premiums (tangibility, intangibility), tie-in payment terms, tie-in sample, tie-in event(culture event, charity event, experience event) and tie-in fund·rebate. Second, 3 categories of the recognition of the consumer for tie-in promotion were extracted: features of preferred tie-in promotion, expectation benefit of tie-in promotion, and risk factors of tie-in promotion. Especially, at the aspect of features of preferred tie-in promotion, fit between consumer pursuit benefit and tie-in promotion was found to be interesting. Moreover, the recognition of the consumer for tie-in promotion were divided with positive(preferred tie-in promotion features, expectation benefit of tie-in promotion) and negative(risk factors of tie-in promotion) factors. In conclusion, the company's effort will be necessary to lower the perceived risk level occurring from the process of accomplishing the tie-in promotion strategy since consumers recognize both positive and negative effects of tie-in promotion.

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The Effect of BDI on the Network Connectedness of Shipping Companies: Focusing on CoVaR Network Connectedness (BDI가 해운선사 네트워크 연계성에 미치는 영향: CoVaR 네트워크 연계성을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Dae-Sung ;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.269-283
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    • 2023
  • Based on daily data from January 4, 2016 to September 27, 2022, the impact of extreme movements of BDI on shipping companies' network connectivity was analyzed using CoVaR network connectivity. The main results and policy implications are as follows. First, according to the copula model results, the Student-t copula was selected as the most suitable model for COSCO, HMM, HRAG, MAERSK, and WAN. EVER was selected as a time-varying Gumbel copula, and YANG was selected as a time-varying rotated-Gumbel copula. Second, as a result of analysis using the TVP-VAR model, the linkage between shipping companies tended to increase when the BDI turned into an extreme risk state. In the comparison of net connectivity, the roles of COSCO and EVER changed. In addition, in the analysis of net pairwise connectivity, it was found that the change in the extreme risk state of BDI also affected the connectivity of shipping companies. In particular, EVER, WAN, and COSCO showed large changes. Taken together, the extreme fluctuations in BDI changed the role of Asian shipping companies, intensifying competition among shipping companies and strengthening risk delivery. It was confirmed that BDI has a great influence on the network connectivity of shipping companies and has an important influence on the stability of the stock market network. Therefore, the results of this study should consider not only the connectivity of shipping companies according to market conditions, but also the connectivity in extreme situations.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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Low price type inspection and monitoring system of lithium ion batteries for hybrid vessels (하이브리드 선박용 리튬 배터리의 저가형 감시시스템 구현)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-joo;Kim, Min-kwon;Lee, Sung-geun
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2016
  • Batteries are used for main power engine in the fields such as mobiles, electric vehicles and unmanned submarines, for starter and lamp driver in general automotive, for emergency electric source in ship. These days, lead-acid and the lithium ion batteries are increasingly used in the fields of the secondary battery, and the lead-acid battery has a low price and safety comparatively, The lithium ion battery has a high energy density, excellent output characteristics and long life, whereas it has the risk of explosion by reacting with moisture in the air. But Recently, due to the development of waterproof, fireproof, dustproof technology, lithium batteries are widely used, particularly, because their usages are getting wider enough to be used as a power source for hybrid ship and electric propulsion ship, it is necessary to manage more strictly. Hybrid ship has power supply units connected to the packets to produce more than 500kWh large power source, and therefore, A number of the communication modules and wires need to implement the wire inspection and monitor system(WIIMS) that allows monitoring server to transmit detecting voltage, current and temperature data, which is required for the management of the batteries. This paper implements a low price type wireless inspection and monitoring system(WILIMS) of the lithium ion battery for hybrid vessels using BLE wireless communication modules and power line modem( PLM), which have the advantages of low price, no electric lines compared to serial communication inspection systems(SCIS). There are state of charge(SOC), state of health(SOH) in inspection parts of batteries, and proposed system will be able to prevent safety accidents because it allows us to predict life time and make a preventive maintenance by checking them at regular intervals.

A Correlation Analysis between International Oil Price Fluctuations and Overseas Construction Order Volumes using Statistical Data (통계 데이터를 활용한 국제 유가와 해외건설 수주액의 상관성 분석)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.273-284
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the impact of international oil price fluctuations on overseas construction orders secured by domestic and foreign companies. The analysis employs statistical data spanning the past 20 years, encompassing international oil prices, overseas construction orders from domestic firms, and new overseas construction orders from the top 250 global construction companies. The correlation between these variables is assessed using correlation coefficients(R), determination coefficients(R2), and p-values. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between international oil prices and overseas construction orders. The correlation coefficient between domestic overseas construction orders and oil prices is found to be 0.8 or higher, signifying a significant influence. Similarly, a high correlation coefficient of 0.76 is observed between oil prices and new orders from leading global construction companies. Further analysis reveals a particularly strong correlation between oil prices and overseas construction orders in Asia and the Middle East, potentially due to the prevalence of oil-related projects in these regions. Additionally, a high correlation is observed between oil prices and orders for industrial facilities compared to architectural projects. This suggests an increase in plant construction volumes driven by fluctuations in oil prices. Based on these findings, the study proposes an entry strategy for navigating oil price volatility and maintaining competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Key recommendations include diversifying project locations and supplier bases; utilizing hedging techniques for exchange rate risk management, adapting to local infrastructure and market conditions, establishing local partnerships and securing skilled local labor, implementing technological innovations and digitization at construction sites to enhance productivity and cost reduction The insights gained from this study, coupled with the proposed overseas expansion strategies, offer valuable guidance for mitigating risks in the global construction market and fostering resilience in response to international oil price fluctuations. This approach is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic and foreign construction firms seeking success in the international arena.

Survey on Dietary Behaviors and Intakes of Instant Noodle (Ramyeon) Soup among College Students (일부 대학생들의 라면 섭취 관련 식행동과 국물 섭취 실태 조사)

  • Kim, Hyung-Sook;Lee, Eun-Young;Kim, Kyungmin;Kim, Kyung Won;Pyun, Jinwon;Chung, Sang-Jin;Kwon, Young Hye;Yeo, Ikhyun;Lee, Sangyun;Nam, Kisun
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.365-371
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    • 2013
  • High intakes of sodium may increase the risk of hypertension or cardiovascular diseases. According to the 2010 Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey, the average intake of sodium was 4,878 mg/day with salt, kimchi, soy sauce, fermented soybean paste and Ramyeon being the five main sources of sodium. In order to identify solutions to reduce the intake of sodium, we investigated the intake patterns and eating behaviors of Ramyeon among 347 college students (male 146, female 201) using survey questionnaires. The average age of study subjects was 23.7 years for males and 20.5 years for females. The average Body Mass Index ($kg/m^2$) was 21.9 for males and 20.1 for females. The average frequency of Ramyeon intake was 2.0 times/week. The main reason for eating Ramyeon was convenience (56%), followed by good taste (27%), low price (11%) and other reasons (9%). The criteria for choosing Ramyeon were taste (72%), convenience (14%), price (7%), nutrition (1%), and the other factors (2%). Males' average intake of Ramyeon soup (61%) was higher than that of the females (36%). The estimated intake of Ramyeon soup by survey showed a positive correlation with the measured intake of Ramyeon soup. Sodium contents of Ramyeon were measured separately for the noodles and the soup, which were 1,185 mg/serving and 1,148 mg/serving each. Therefore, the amount of sodium intake can be reduced if students eat less Ramyeon soup. Also, we observed that dietary behaviors and soup intakes of Ramyeon between the sexes were different. Appropriate nutritional education for proper eating habits may help decrease the intake of sodium.

A Study of Investment effectiveness about Equity Linked Securities(ELS) ; focused on Step-down type ELS (주가연계증권(ELS)의 투자효과에 관한 연구 : 스텝다운형 ELS를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Heeseog;Kim, Sunje
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.103-122
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to present the direction of ELS investment by analyzing the actual investment return of the ELS commodities and analyzing the investment effect of ELS that investors have felt unsatisfactory at financial marketing service. The research method is based on the step-down type ELS. We calculated the probability of achieving early redemption condition and maturity repayment condition, early redemption estimated yield, and maturity repayment estimated yield. As the study result, the probability of achieving 100% of the early redemption condition was 74.5%, and the probability of the early redemption condition 95% was 83.0%, 90% was 89.5%, 85% was 92.5%, and 80% was 96.5% respectively. In the case of the lowest 75%, the probability of holding to maturity is analyzed to be 2.5%, and the probability of early redemption is high. The probability of the stock price growth within 65% of the maturity repayment condition was 98.5% and the probability of the stock price growth within 60%~45% of the maturity repayment condition was 100%. 65% of maturity repayment condition was analyzed as 1.5% risk of principal loss, and the probability of achieving the committed yield of maturity was high. As a key measure of ELS investment, it is advantageous to select a commodity with a low rate of maturity repayment and a high rate of early redemption.

Evaluation on the impact of Lowest Bid Contracts on Site Operations in times of Severe Economic Downturn (건설경기 침체기의 최저가 낙찰제 건설현장의 운영 실태분석과 개선 방안 도출)

  • Koo, Bon-Sang;Jang, Hyoun-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.146-153
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    • 2009
  • The year 2008 was a hard year for Korea's construction companies. The real estate downturn resulted in halting new construction and stopping existing work, and inflation of global oil prices caused price hikes in rebar and concrete materials. As a solution to reducing the budget, the newly appointed government announced plans to increase low cost bid contracts from 10 billion to 30 billion won. When such economical and political factors negatively impact the construction market, projects based on low cost contracts are the hardest hit. Many problems already inherent in low cost bid contracts become accentuated. Consequently, this provides an opportune time to actually study and analyze the issues in these projects. This paper introduces the findings made from investigating four projects struggling to make ends meet in the year 2008. Results show that flow of cash (i.e., liquidity), or lack thereof, was the root cause which in turn was hampered by failed mechanisms for design changes, material inflation. Attributing cash flow risk to the bottom of the production structure (i.e., small business subcontractors) was also a problem within the industry. Contractors need a better way to prepare against material price fluctuations, and owners need to assist in expediting payment during times of extreme downturn.

A Study on the Dynamic Correlation between the Korean ETS Market, Energy Market and Stock Market (한국 ETS시장, 에너지시장 및 주식시장 간의 동태적 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Guo-Dong Yang;Yin-Hua Li
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.189-208
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    • 2023
  • This paper analyzed the dynamic conditional correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market and stock market. This paper conducted an empirical analysis using daily data of Korea's carbon credit trading price, WTI crude oil futures price, and KOSPI index from February 2, 2015 to December 30, 2021. First, the volatility of the three markets was analyzed using the GARCH model, and then the dynamic conditional correlations between the three markets were studied using the bivariate DCC-GARCH model. The research results are as follows. First, it was found that the Korean ETS market has a higher rate of return and higher investment risk than the stock market. Second, the yield volatility of the Korean ETS market was found to be most affected by external shocks and least affected by the volatility information of the market itself. Third, the correlation between the Korean ETS market and the stock market was stronger than that of the WTI crude oil futures market. This paper analyzed the correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market, and stock market and confirmed that the level of financialization in the Korean ETS market is quite low.