• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.79-87
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• 2016

Purpose - Since 1990, the sudden stop in capital flows has caused the economic crisis. The purpose of this research is to suggest the policy measures to mitigate the risk of the sudden stop in capital flows. To this end, we examine the theoretical framework and analyze the case study for countries which are faced with the sudden stop. Also we examine the structural problems of the foreign exchange market in Korea and derive the policy implications to prevent the sudden stop. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria of whether the sudden stop in capital flows occurs are based upon Calvo et al. (2008). In case the proxy variable for the balance of capital account decreases from the average by over twice standard deviation, we determine that the sudden stop occurs for that country. The sample period is from January 1990 to December 2008, as in Calvo (2014). The sample countries are 17 developed countries and 19 emerging market countries, which are different from those of the previous papers as Agosin and Huaita (2012), and Calvo (2014). When the exchange market pressure index(EMPI) is deviated from the average by over three times standard deviation, we determine that the foreign exchange market is unstable for that country. Results - We find that the characteristics of the sudden stop in capital flows are the bunching or contagion among countries, the rapid drop in real effective exchange rate, and the huge decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Many countries tried to increase foreign exchange reserves and regulate capital flows. Also the foreign exchange market in Korea are found to be the volatile exchange rate, the vulnerable external debt and careless management of the foreign exchange derivatives transaction risk. Conclusions - To lessen the risk in the sudden stop of capital flows, this research suggests the some useful policy measures. To enhance the foreign exchange and distribution market stability, we should improve the price mechanism of exchange rate, hold the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves, prevent excessive inflows of foreign exchange and promote sound transactions of foreign exchange derivatives.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.79-116
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• 2008

This paper examines and estimates GARCH-VaR models (RiskMetrics, GARCH, IGARCH, GJR and APARCH) with three different distributions such as Gaussian normal, Student-t, Skewness Student-t Distribution using the daily price data from Korean Stock Market during Jan. 1, 1980-Sept. 30, 2004. It also compares them. In-sample test, this finds that for all confidence level as $90%{\sim}99.9%$, the performance and accuracy of IGARCH with ${\lambda}=0.87$ and skewness Student-t distribution are superior to other models and distributions in long position, but GARCH and GJR with Skewness Student-t distribution in short position. For above 99% confidence level, the performance and accuracy of IGARCH with ${\lambda}=0.87$ in both long and short positions are superior to other models and distributions, but Skewness Student-t distribution for long position and Student-t distribution for short position are more accuracy and superior to other distributions. In-out-of sample test, these results also confirm the evidences that the above findings are consistent as well.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.141-147
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• 2019

This paper analyzes the price movements and the possibility of delisting by research and development intensity of firm which made technological innovation disclosure in the Korean stock market. The sample consists of firms listed on the KRX which made technological information disclosure between January 2002 and December 2014. The results are summarized as follows. The higher R&D intensity is observed for the delisted firms group. The logit regression result shows that the research and development intensity is a significant predictor of the possibility of delisting. This shows that exposure to the risk of delisting may increase as the proportion and uncertainty of intangible assets in the assets of individual firms increases. This empirical result is expected to serve as a good guide line for the stakeholders.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.135-166
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• 2008

This paper reports the empirical results of comparing the willingness to pay(WTP) for health risk reductions and the willingness to accept(WTA) for risk increases using experimental market methods in the first time in Korea. Health risks were defined as probabilities of premature death from exposure to one of As, Pb, and THM in tap water. A total of six experimental markets with 15 participants in each experiments were held using 20 repetitive Vickrey second-price sealed-bid auctions. To compare the effects of market experiences, trading a marketed good, candy bar, was introduced before the trading the non-marketed good, drinking water risks. Moreover, an objective risk information was provided after the first 10 trials to incorporate learning processes. Regardless of marketed or non-marketed goods, the mean of WTA exceeded the mean of WTP at the first auction trial. As experimental trials proceeded, the disparity between WTA and WTP for marketed goods disappeared. However results for non-marketed goods were rather mixed to the extent that WTA for health risks from As (relatively high risk leves) were significantly larger than WTP, while there were no significant difference between WTA and WTP for health risks fro Pb and THM (relatively low risk levels). On the other hand, participants seemed to respond in a 'rational' manner to the objective risk information provided, with positive learning effects of market-like experience(especially in the WTA experiments).

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.42
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• pp.275-305
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• 2009

Marine insurance contracts, which intended to provide indemnity against marine risks upon the payment of price, known as a premium, originated in Northern Italy in the late 12th and early 13th centuries. The law and practice were later introduced into England through the Continent. It is, therefore, quite exact that English and European marine insurance law have common roots. Nevertheless, significant divergences between English and European insurance systems occurred since the late 17th century, mainly due to different approaches adopted by English courts. The rule of warranty in English marine insurance was developed and clarified in the second part of the 18th century by Lord Mansfield, who laid the foundations of the modern English law of marine insurance, and developed different approaches, especially in the field of warranty in marine insurance law. Since the age of Lord Mansfield, English marine insurance law has a unique rule on warranty. This article is, therefore, designed to analyse the overall rule of the rule of warranty in English marine insurance law. The result of analysis are as following. First, warranties are incorporated to serve a very significant function in the law of insurance, that is, confining or determining the scope of the cover agreed by the insurer. From the insurer's point of view, such the function of warranties is crucial, because his liability, agreed on the contract of insurance, largely depend on in, and the warranties, incorporated in the contract play an essential role in assessing the risk. If the warranty is breached, the risk initially agreed is altered and that serves the reason why the insurer is allowed to discharge automatically further liability from the date of breach. Secondly, the term 'warranty' is used to describe a term of the contract in general and insurance contract law, but the breach of which affords different remedies between general contract law and insurance contract law. Thirdly, a express warranty may be in any form of words from which the intention to warrant is to be inferred. An express warranty must be included in, or written upon, the policy, or must be contained in some document incorporated by reference into the policy. It does not matter how this is done. Fourthly, a warranty is a condition precedent to the insurer's liability on the contract, and, therefore, once broken, the insurer automatically ceases to be liable. If the breach pre-dates the attachment of risk, the insurer will never put on risk, whereas if the breach occurs after inception of risk, the insurer remains liable for any losses within the scope of the policy, but has no liability for any subsequent losses. Finally, the requirements on the warranty must be determined in according to the rule of strict construction. As results, it is irrelevant: the reason that a certain warranty is introduced into the contract, whether the warranty is material to the insurer's decision to accept the contract, whether or not the warranty is irrelevant to the risk or a loss, the extent of compliance, that is, whether the requirements on the warranty is complied exactly or substantially, the unreasonableness or hardship of the rule of strict construction, and whether a breach of warranty has been remedied, and the warranty complied with, before loss.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.19-32
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• 2011

The risk assessment is essential for tunnel design in order to minimize risks associated with uncertainty about geological conditions and tunneling method. This paper provides a comparative risk analysis of a large single bore TBM driven tunnel against sequentially excavated NATM tunnel for a mixed-face large-diameter urban tunnel project near or under a river. The focus of this assessment is on the risks associated with the tunnel excavation methods, in particular whether a TBM or NATM presents more or less risk to achieve the planned excavation duration and bring the project within the estimated bid price. First, the impacts and risks to tunnel construction under each method were discussed, and the risks were scored and ranked in the order of perceived severity and likelihood. Finally, the assessment from a risk based perspective was conducted to decide which alternate tunneling method is more likely to deliver the project with the least time and cost. It is very important to note that this study is only applied to this tunnel project with specific geological conditions and other contract requirements.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.76-86
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• 2016

Recently, the Contracts of International Construction Business has been decreased from the beginning of 2015 in Korea, although it has been steadily increased until 2014. This trend could be caused by Low-Price Contracts, the lack of Know-how and experience in operating, the poor management of Claims and Low-Profitability in Business. It has been recognized that the qualitative improvement of Business Contacts are necessary for successful Projects. In the Bidding Process, therefore, Experience data as In-House Data and Lessons Learned for projects should be strategically involved to assure riskless offers. Accordingly the Proposal Process are needed to be organized and enhanced by including processes for risks review about technical, marketing and commercial part during the bidding. This paper proposes a Risk Management Process model during Bidding Phase, using Risk Evaluation Method through the project life-cycle. The Concept of Model is to define CSF (Critical Success Factor) in the bidding process and Risk Factors are linked to CSF and Organization based on RAM (Responsibility assignment matrix).

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.52-60
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• 2021

Due to the significant size of overseas construction projects, the cost overrun has enormous impacts on the financial status of construction companies. The managers' appropriate perception and identification of key risk factors in the construction phase notably affect the performance of projects. However, the actual impacts of risk factors and local manager' s perception of them could be deviated. For this reason, we aim to compare the performance of actual cases and general opinions of responsible practitioners in terms of risk factors relevant to cost overruns in order to present a practical strategy for risk management. Firstly, factors classified from literature review were used to simulate 290 cost overruns data sets from 20 cases by introducing Monte-Carlo Simulation and were ranked by standardized coefficients through multiple regression analysis. Secondly, a survey was conducted against 42 local managers to rank their perception of impact on cost overrun with identical factors by using Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA). Comparison results show that conflicts such as 'conflict with subcontractors' and 'conflict with the local community' have caused excessive cost overrun. However, managers' perception of these as less significant than the actual influences and consider other risks such as 'material price fluctuation' and 'construction quality errors', as relatively serious. Therefore, education for local managers on conflict risks needs to be presented.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.244-248
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• 2012

We present a simple numerical method for pricing American put options under a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. Our analysis is done in a general framework where only the risk-neutral transition density of the underlying asset price is given. We obtain an integral equation of early exercise premium. By exploiting a modification of the integral equation, we propose a novel and simple numerical iterative valuation method for American put options.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.25-41
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• 2000

This study examined the relationships of store preference with perceived store attributes and consumers' individual characteristics and the impacts of shopping situations on actual store choice. Data were obtained from an on-site questionnaire survey to a convenience sample of young consumers. A total of 456 responses was analyzed. Based on store preference and store choice, respondents were divided into four preference(or choice) groups of: Independent fashion specialty store; Independent general fashion store; Department store and Brand-franchised store. MANOVA, ANOVA and $\chi$$^2$ analyses revealed that there were significant differences among 4 store preference groups on 3 store attribute factors(price, promotion, and merchandise & displays), fashion involvement, perceived financial risk and 5 demographic characteristics(age, gender, marital status, education and spending). Also, there were significant differences among 4 store choice groups on 3 shopping situations the respondents had experienced. Based on the results, the study provided a profile of each store preference group and marketing implications.