• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.13-23
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• 2015

This study addresses the question as to whether the option prices have useful predictive information on the direction of stock markets by investigating a forecasting power of volatility curvatures and skewness premiums implicit in S&P 500 index option prices traded in Chicago Board Options Exchange. We begin by estimating implied volatility functions and risk neutral price densities every minute based on non-parametric method and then calculate volatility curvature and skewness premium using them. The rationale is that high volatility curvature or high skewness premium often leads to strong bullish sentiment among market participants. We found that the rate of return on the signal following trading strategy was significantly higher than that on the intraday buy-and-hold strategy, which indicates that the S&P500 index option prices have a strong forecasting power on the direction of stock index market. Another major finding is that the information contents of S&P 500 index option prices disappear within one minute, and so one minute-delayed signal following trading strategy would not lead to any excess return compared to a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

• Journal of the Korea Fashion and Costume Design Association
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.1-18
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to investigate the consumers' characteristics in terms of information source usage and purchase channel choice focusing on apparel purchasers in the multichannel retailing environment. The specific research objects are as follows: analyzing consumer's information source usage and purchase channel choice when buying their own clothing, examining the differences of consumers' characteristics according to the groups who are classified by their information source usages, and examining the differences of consumers' characteristics according to the purchase channel choice. The data was collected from adults over 20 years of age who had bought their own clothing within the last year. The questionnaire was carried out during September 2019, using a professional internet research panel, and 490 useful data sets were analyzed by utilizing descriptive statistics, factor analysis, reliability analysis, chi-squared test, ANOVA and a Duncan-test using SPSS 21.0. The findings showed that there were also significant differences of consumers' characteristics which included age, gender, monthly clothing expenditure, purchase price, shopping value and perceived risk according to the consumer's information source usage and their purchase channel choice.

• Plant Journal
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.39-43
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• 2011

Due to the recent uncertainty of market situations such as the escalation of petroleum prices, increased production capacities of plants, limitations of the available EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contractors, and the increase of raw material prices, EPC contractors have had a tendency to include a higher reserve contingency in the lump-sum turnkey contract price. In order to overcome the changes in the market, the plant project construction industry has started to apply the converted lump-sum turnkey contract in plant construction market. This study was focused to find the associated risks and to analyse the identified risks on recent trend of application of the new contract type, which is the converted lump-sum turnkey contract. It was recognized from the analysis that quality and cost have more high priority risks than other project objectives. This paper also suggests the mitigation plan for identified risks to achieve project objectives appropriate to the converted lump-sum turnkey project from the viewpoint of an EPC contractor keeping transparency with owner.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.18
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• pp.189-218
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• 2002

The EPC/Turnkey Contract goes to the extreme in allocating risks to the contractor and depending on the types of project, this may be regarded as unacceptable. It has also gone to the extreme in the extent to which the contractor is responsible for the specification and design of the Works. The employer is not responsible for correctness of any information provided by him nor for correctness of any specification or other matter included in the Employer's Requirements, except the definition of the intended purpose and criteria for testing and performance. With such conditions it is surprising that the employer is entitled to interfere in the contractors performance to an extent that is close to what is norm for a construction contract with employer design and with normal risk allocation. The combination of risk allocation and inappropriate administrative provisions makes the EPC/Turnkey Contract a document that will meet severe resistance from contractors. It is also likely that employers will see the risks and difficulties from their own perspective. It is a fiction that the EPC/Turnkey Contract will give the employer a contact with a certainty of final price and completion date. It is not a fiction that the EPC/Turnkey Contract carries many seeds for disputes between the parties. The Orange Book has become an accepted document even if it clearly contains some weaknesses. Some of these have been corrected in the Plant Contract. In my opinion FIDIC should let users become more familiar with the Plant Contract as a follow up to the Orange Book.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.27-38
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• 2013

Word-of-mouth (WOM) communication (traditionally important in consumption) is expanding its influence into cyber space and is playing an important role in online shopping. Consumers who use online shopping might not readily make purchasing decisions due to information overload, lack of accurate product recognition, and the distrust of commercial information. Subsequently, people use WOM communication for a mutual interchange with others who share common concerns, interests, and purposes. This study examines the consumer characteristics, perceived risk on online shopping and benefits of online shopping according to WOM behavior that may significantly affect consumer actions. Factor analysis, t-test, one-way ANOVA, cluster analysis, and Chi-square analysis were used for statistical analysis to identify the differences in consumer characteristics. Online WOM behavior consumers purchased more various items than offline WOM behavior consumers; however, the most influential purchasing factor was price regardless of WOM behavior. Offline WOM behavior consumers have shown higher perceived online shopping risks and benefits.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.122-123
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• 2018

Recently, CM at Risk delivery system(CM@R) that could solve the problems of Design Bid Build delivery(DBB) system has been emerging. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the contractor carries out the construction within the GMP. In CM @ R, the construction company with expertise in construction participates from the design stage to reflects the construction know-how in the design. On the other hand, the modification design frequently occurs due to the change of the construction cost when negotiating the GMP. In addition, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. This study proposes a probabilistic GMP estimation method applying MCS to the BIM - based cost prediction model, in order to extract the accurate quantity information when estimating the GMP and to cope with the change of the construction cost inherent in uncertainty.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.107-120
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• 2010

In today's uncertain economic environment, the evaluation of safety for investment alternatives is of practical importance in manufacturing companies. This paper examines a method of quantitatively evaluating profitability and risk for multiple alternatives using the total-cost unit-cost domain. The paper assumes such factors as unit sales price, sales and production volume, unit variable cost, fixed cost, and yield for each alternative. The paper incorporates the relationship between production capacity and demand, distinguishing between cases of production capacity surplus and shortage for each year over the entire planning horizon. The paper investigates the case in which the values of each factor independently move in the direction of decreasing profit each year, and clarifies the procedure of comparing safety among multiple investment alternatives on a single consolidated total-cost unit-cost domain. The difficulty of the problem lies in the method of consolidating multiple total-cost unit-cost domains into a single domain since the combination of years of capacity surplus and shortage depends upon the change values in each factor under consideration. A systematic method of evaluating profitability as well as risk is presented, and the validity of the proposed method is verified using a numerical example.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.297-309
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• 2021

In this study, to capture the skewness and kurtosis detected in both conditional and unconditional return distributions of the stock markets of Kazakhstan and Russia, two versions of normal mixture GARCH models are employed. The data set consists of daily observations of the Kazakhstan and Russia stock prices, and world crude oil price, covering the period from 1 June 2006 through 1 March 2021. From the empirical results, incorporating the long memory effect on the returns not only provides better descriptions of dynamic behaviors of the stock market prices but also plays a significant role in improving a better understanding of the return dynamics. In addition, normal mixture models for time-varying volatility provide a better fit to the conditional densities than the usual GARCH specifications and has an important advantage that the conditional higher moments are time-varying. This implies that the volatility skews implied by normal mixture models are more likely to exhibit the features of risk and the direction of the information flow is regime-dependent. The findings of this study contain useful information for diverse purposes of cross-border stock market players such as asset allocation, portfolio management, risk management, and market regulations.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.351-360
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• 2022

This study aims to determine the factors that can influence investors in selecting stocks in the Indonesian capital market to establish an optimal portfolio, and find phenomena that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic so that buying interest / the number of investors increased in the Indonesian capital market. This study collection technique uses primary data obtained from the survey questionnaire and secondary data which is market data, stock price movement data sourced from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Indonesian Central Securities Depository, and Bank Indonesia, as well as empirical literature on behavior finance, investment decision, and interest in buying stock. The method used in this research is the survey questionnaire analysis with the SEM (statistical approach). The results of the analysis using SEM show that investor behavior influences the stock-buying interest, investor behavior, and the stock-buying interest influences investor decision-making. However, risk management does not influence investor-decision making. This occurs when the investigator's psychological capacity produces more decision information by decreasing all potential biases, allowing the best stock selection model to be selected. When the investigator's psychological capacity creates more decision information by reducing biases, the optimum stock selection model can be chosen.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.19-27
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• 2022

This study compares and analyzes wholesale(or price-only) contract, revenue-sharing contract, quantity-flexibility contract, and channel-rebate contract in a decentralized supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer. By setting the parameters of each coordination contract based on the previous results, we conduct simulations using @RISK for several combinations of these parameters. Under the supply chain coordination, we evaluate the probability of successfully signing a contract and the participant in favor of each contract. As a result, the quantity-flexibility contracts is most advantageous for the retailer and the channel-rebate contracts is most advantageous for the supplier. It revealed that revenue-sharing contracts can be used more flexibly because they can be selected in the widest range to redistribute profits between supplier and retailer.