• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Price

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An Application of the Smart Beta Portfolio Model: An Empirical Study in Indonesia Stock Exchange

  • WASPADA, Ika Putera;SALIM, Dwi Fitrizal;FARISKA, Putri
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.9
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2021
  • Stock price fluctuations affect investor returns, particularly, in this pandemic situation that has triggered stock market shocks. As a result of this situation, investors prefer to move their money into a safer portfolio. Therefore, in this study, we approach an efficient portfolio model using smart beta and combining others to obtain a fast method to predict investment stock returns. Smart beta is a method to selects stocks that will enter a portfolio quickly and concisely by considering the level of return and risk that has been set according to the ability of investors. A smart beta portfolio is efficient because it tracks with an underlying index and is optimized using the same techniques that active portfolio managers utilize. Using the logistic regression method and the data of 100 low volatility stocks listed on the Indonesia stock exchange from 2009-2019, an efficient portfolio model was made. It can be concluded that an efficient portfolio is formed by a group of stocks that are aggressive and actively traded to produce optimal returns at a certain level of risk in the long-term period. And also, the portfolio selection model generated using the smart beta, beta, alpha, and stock variants is a simple and fast model in predicting the rate of return with an adjusted risk level so that investors can anticipate risks and minimize errors in stock selection.

A Basic Study on the Development of Profit Risk Management Model for Apartment Projects (아파트 개발 프로젝트의 수익 리스크 관리모델에 관한 기초연구)

  • Son, Seunghyun;Lee, Sungho;Han, Bumjin;Na, Young-Ju;Kim, Ji-Myung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.215-216
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    • 2022
  • Profit, the performance of an apartment development project, is directly affected by the sales ratio, unit sale price, financial costs, land costs and construction costs. However, these factors fluctuate in response to changes in the environment, including various stake holders, and the profits fluctuate as a result. In order to ensure that profits are managed within target levels, these factors must be able to be predicted, controlled and monitored and managed up to the start, sale, and end stages of the project. The purpose of this study is to develop a profit risk management model for apartment development projects. The results of this study will contribute to the establishment of academic basis for the dynamic management of project profits that fluctuate with time and environment. And in practice, it will help project developers manage their business revenue to the proper level. In addition, the risks that occur from time to time can be identified quantitatively and visually, and it is expected that it will be easier to derive consensus points for smooth business progress by reducing conflicts of interest among stakeholders.

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The Implementation of IFRS 17 and the Value Relevance of Policy Reserve (IFRS 17 시행과 책임준비금의 가치관련성)

  • Abisheva Tomiris;Seokhee Cho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.351-365
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the value relevance of the relative sizes of the contractual service margin (hereafter CSM) and the risk adjustment for non-financial risk (hereafter RA). Additionally, the paper examines how the relative size of the CSM impacts the relative value relevance of net assets and net income. Design/methodology/approach - This study conducted an empirical analysis utilizing the quarterly financial data and stock price information of domestically listed insures (including life and non-life insurers) from 2023 onwards. Specifically, regression analysis and parallelism tests were employed in the research. Findings - Firstly, the empirical analysis of the value relevance of CSM and RA showed that CSM has a significant positive value relevance with firm value, while RA has a significant negative value relevance with firm value. Secondly, it was found that as the CSM increases, the value relevance of net income increases, whereas the value relevance of net assets decreases. Research implications or Originality - Despite both CSM and RA being components of insurance contract liabilities, their differing impacts on firm value suggest that the capital market has a relatively clear understanding of the characteristics of CSM and RA. The finding that the value relevance of reported current earnings increases with larger CSM indicates that CSM-focused management is desirable from the perspective of enhancing firm value.

Influences of channel assessment on the usage levels of multi-channels by product category in decision making process for purchasing fashion products (패션상품 구매의사 결정과정에서의 상품유형별 채널평가가 멀티채널 이용도에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sung Ryul;Kim, Mi Sook
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.803-816
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    • 2016
  • The purposes of this study were to investigate the influences of channel assessments on the usage of multi-channels by product types, and the differences in the usage of multi-channels among product types in buying decision making process for fashion products. Data were collected from 510 consumers in their 20s to 50s with purchasing experiences through multi-channel distribution system and living in Seoul and Kyunggi province; 491 were analyzed after deleting incomplete questionnaires. Factor analysis, multiple regression analysis and one-way ANOVA were used for statistical analysis by using SPSS 18.0. The results were as follows: 5 factors were extracted for channel assessment: utility, accuracy, risk, price benefit and sharing information. Price benefits, utility and sharing information for online channel tended to influence positively on the usage of online channel and online+offline channels. Accuracy and low perceived risk of offline influenced positively on offline and on+offline channel usages. The usage levels of on-line and off-line channels for cosmetics were significantly lower than the usage levels for clothes and accessories on information search, evaluation of alternatives, and purchase stages. Significant differences were also found in the usage levels of multi-channels (on+off-line) on information search and evaluation of alternatives stages. The usage levels of the multi-channels for clothes were the highest followed by those of accessories and cosmetics in order.

A Regression Model for Forecasting the Initial Sales Ratio of Apartment Building Projects (아파트 프로젝트의 초기 분양률 예측 회귀모델)

  • Son, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Do-Yeong;Kim, Sun-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2019
  • There are various factors affecting the success and failure of an apartment building project. However, after the unit sale price has been determined and the sale has started, the most important factor affecting on the project is the initial sales ratio for one month after the sale. Generally, developers predict an initial sales ratio by various data such as economic situation, the trend of the housing market, and the house price near the business place. However, it is very difficult for these factors to be calculated quantitatively in connection with the initial sales ratio. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a regression model for forecasting the initial sales ratio of apartment building projects. For this study, pre-sales data collection, correlation analysis between influencing factors, and regression model development are performed sequentially. The results of this study are used as basic data for predicting the initial sales ratio in the feasibility analysis of apartment building projects and are used as key data for the development of the risk management model.

Analyzing Spatial Correlation between Location-Based Social Media Data and Real Estates Price Index through Rasterization (격자기반 분석을 통한 위치기반 소셜 미디어 데이터와 부동산 가격지수 간의 공간적 상관성 분석 연구)

  • Park, Woo Jin;Eo, Seung Won;Yu, Ki Yun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the spatial relevance between the regional housing price data and the spatial distribution of the location-based social media data is explored. The spatial analysis with rasterization was applied to this study, because the both data have a different form to analyze. The geo-tagged Twitter data had been collected for a month and the regional housing price index about sales and lease were used. The spatial range of both data includes Seoul and the some parts of the metropolitan area. 2,000m grid was constructed to consider the different spatial measure between two data, and they were combined into the constructed grids. The Hotspot Analysis was operated using the combined dataset to see the comparison of spatial distribution, and the bivariate spatial correlation coefficients between two data were measured for the quantitative analysis. The result of this study shows that Seocho-gu area is detected as a common hotspot of tweet and housing sales price index data. though the spatial relevance is not detected between tweet and housing lease price index data.

A Study on the Long-Run Equilibrium Between KOSPI 200 Index Spot Market and Futures Market (분수공적분을 이용한 KOSPI200지수의 현.선물 장기균형관계검정)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyuk;Lim, Soon-Young;Park, Kap-Je
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.111-130
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    • 2008
  • This paper compares long term equilibrium relation of KOSPI 200 which is underling stock and its futures by using general method fractional cointegration instead of existing integer cointegration. Existence of integer cointegration between two price time series gives much wider information about long term equilibrium relation. These details grasp long term equilibrium relation of two price time series as well as reverting velocity to equilibrium by observing difference coefficient of error term when it renounces from equilibrium relation. The result of this study reveals existence of long term equilibrium relation between KOSPI200 and futures which follow fractional cointegration. Difference coefficient, d, of 'two price time series error term' satisfies 0 < d < 1/2 beside bandwidth parameter, m(173). It means two price time series follow stationary long memory process. This also means impulse effects to balance price of two price time series decrease gently within hyperbolic rate decay. It indicates reverting speed of error term is very low when it bolts from equilibrium. It implies to market maker, who is willing to make excess return with arbitrage trading and hedging risk using underling stock, how invest strategy should be changed. It also insinuates that information transition between KOSPI 200 Index market and futures market does not working efficiently.

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Cigarette price rise induced change in youth smoking rate (담배가격 인상에 따른 청소년 흡연율 변화)

  • Min, Gyeong-Mun;Seo, Young-Ho;Park, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.451-461
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated changes in the youth smoking rate and smoking cessation rates before and after a cigarette price increase in 2015. Specifically, the changes in smoking rate, smoking cessation attempt rate, selection rate and amount of smoking were investigated using primary data pertaining to Korean Youth Risk Behavior obtained from a web-based survey of youth general characteristics, mental health, subjective grade, drinking and smoking related characteristics before and after a cigarette price increase. To accomplish this, 800 middle school and high school students in 9th (2013), 10th (2014), 11th (2015) were surveyed. The current youth smoking rate was slightly decreased from 9.7% in 2013 to 9.2% in 2014, while the smoking rate in 2015 decreased significantly by 15.2% after the cigarette price increased to 7.8%. These results confirmed that increasing cigarette price is very effective at decreasing youth smoking rate, providing motivation to stop smoking and preventing smoking. The prevention of smoking and inducement to stop smoking during adolescence is very important because the majority of teenage smokers continue smoking into their adulthood. In addition to expanding a completely non-smoking area and a comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship should be urgently sought, and the effect can be maximized when the WHO FCTC faithfully implements the already-founded treaty.

Analysis of the Influence of Design Score and Price Score for Design Build Bidding (설계시공일괄입찰에서 설계점수와 가격점수의 영향력 분석)

  • Lee, Jinhak;Woo, Sungkwon;Lee, Siwook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.44-51
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    • 2023
  • Selecting appropriate bidding system in construction projects considering the characteristic of project can be a make-or-break element, so the understanding for bidding system of public construction projects is ever more important from the perspective of both the owner and the contractor. The design-build bidding is commonly referred to as turnkey in Korea, and is a bidding method that is often applied to large public construction projects because it allows new technologies to be applied to the design and facilitates risk management for the owner. In this bidding method, there are only two factors (design score and price score) that affect the selection of the winning bidder, so it is important to understand the influence of each factor, but there is little research on the subject. This study aims to provide a basis for establishing bidding strategies for understanding the influence between design score and price score by analyzing various design-build bidding data of public construction projects. The results of the study show that design score is the factor that has more influence on the ranking of bidders in all three weighted evaluation methods: design-emphasized, price-emphasized, and equalized evaluation. In addition, we found that the correlation between design and price scores was not significant due to the unique bid evaluation structure in Korea.

Study on the Risk Management of the CERs Investment - Regarding Registration Risks and Price Change Risk in Investing Primary CERs - (탄소배출권 투자와 위험관리방안 연구 - 일차배출권(Primary CER) 투자 시 등록위험 및 가격변동 위험을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Chang Seok;Kim, Yun Soung;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.115-131
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    • 2011
  • Out of all the possible actions that can be taken to respond to greenhouse gas reduction, including development of greenhouse gas reduction technology, infrastructure, actions to improve energy saving and efficiency, and offset with carbon emission reductions (CERs), this study shall focus on the investment on CERs. This study will take a look at risks involved with investing in CERs such as UN registration refusal risk and CERs price fluctuation, and will design risk management model which shall be verified. The goal of this paper is to provide optimized CERs investment strategies for different types of investors, such as general trading companies seeking for investment opportunities and financial companies with plans for green products development and investment by preparation for carbon market. It is expected that the global competitiveness of domestic financial companies shall be improved by taking actions on carbon market instead of previous passive response to climate change and that Korea, the number two Carbon Emissions supplier and number one derivatives market in terms of volume, shall be able to lead the worldwide carbon market.