• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.77-105
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• 2021

Natural gas consumption in Asia is growing at fast tempo because of various factors such as economic growth in the region, urbanization, coal-to-gas switch at power and industry sector. Due to geographical characteristics and lack of international pipeline connections between countries in the continent, majority of natural gas exported to Asian consumers is transported by tankers on the sea in the form of liquefied natural gas. As Asian market is the most lucrative market with the fastest demand growth, the competitions between LNG sellers for market share in Asian market are strengthening. The competitions accelerated, especially after the introduction of large volume of incremental supply into the market by new exporters from the U.S., Australia, and Russia. Cheniere Energy, the first exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the lower 48 states of U.S. has not adopted the traditional price formation mechanism and business model. Traditionally, prices of long-term LNG contracts have been indexed to the price of competing fuels, such as crude oil. The company adopted a pricing mechanism and business model based on a cost-plus system. Cheniere Energy opted for the safer and the risk-free pricing system, that annually guarantees a fixed amount of revenue to the seller. The company earns the same amount of money, regardless of natural gas price dynamics in the domestic and international market, but possibly with less revenue. However, by introducing and successfully implementing the safer and risk- free business model, Cheniere Energy, a company of a relatively smaller size in comparison with major oil and gas companies, became an example to other smaller-sized companies in the U.S. The company's business model demonstrated how to enter and operate LNG business amid increasing competitions among sellers in the U.S. and international market.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.513-522
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• 2014

Using the assumption that the price of a stock follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility, Black and Scholes (BS) derived a formula that gives the price of a European call option on the stock as a function of the stock price, the strike price, the time to maturity, the risk-free interest rate, the dividend rate paid by the stock, and the volatility of the stock's return. However, implied volatilities of BS method tend to depend on the stock prices and the time to maturity in practice. To address this shortcoming, we estimate the implied volatility function as a function of the strike priceand the time to maturity for data consisting of the daily prices for KOSPI200 call options from January 2007 to May 2009 using support vector regression (SVR), the multiple additive regression trees (MART) algorithm, and ordinary least squaress (OLS) regression. In conclusion, use of MART or SVR in the BS pricing model reduced both RMSE and MAE, compared to the OLS-based BS pricing model.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.39-55
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• 2019

Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.115-130
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• 2018

This study investigated the factors influencing the termination of the JooTeakYeonKeum contract according to its rate increase, and aimed to identify the differences in the factors affecting the cancellation of the contract according to the collateralized house price range. The results showed that the higher the cumulative increase rate of the mortgage housing price at the time of subscription is, the higher the monthly payment, the larger the gap between the monthly payment and the minimal living expenses for aging, the lower the net population moving rate in the previous month, and the lower the cumulative mortgage. Moreover, the JooTeakYeonKeum contract is terminated. The factors affecting the termination of the contract are different in each interval of the price range of the mortgage housing. To confirm this, a mortgage price range model was constructed and analyzed. The results showed that 60% of the elderly participants in the JooTeakYeonKeum program subscribed thereto with a below-average subsidized housing price. It was confirmed that the factors affecting the termination of the contract differ by price range. Lowering the risk of increasing the JooTeakYeonKeum termination rate will be a significant way of boosting the welfare of elderly people aged 65 and older, and of easing the impact of population aging.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.31-39
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• 1998

A simple general equilibrium model, where risk aversion and dividend process switching play a key role, shows that a stock price in a bubble-free economy can be observationally equivalent to that of the intrinsic bubble economy. Specifically, I seek a set of conditions under which the functional form of asset prices in the bubble-free economy is the same as that in the intrinsic bubble approach.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.495-501
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• 2004

HJM representation of the term structure of interest rates sometimes produces the negative interest rates with positive probability. This paper shows that the condition of positive interest rates can be derived from the jump diffusion process, if a proper positive martingale process with the compensated jump process is chosen. As in Flesaker and Hughston, the condition is incorporated into the bond price process.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.249-273
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• 2010

Often in practice, the implied volatility of an option is calculated to find the option price tomorrow or the prices of, nearby' options. To show that one does not need to adhere to the Black- Scholes formula in this scheme, Figlewski has provided a new pricing formula and has shown that his, alternating passive model' performs as well as the Black-Scholes formula [8]. The Figlewski model was modified by Henderson et al. so that the formula would have no static arbitrage [10]. In this paper, we show how to construct a huge class of such static no arbitrage pricing functions, making use of distortions, coherent risk measures and the pricing theory in incomplete markets by Carr et al. [4]. Through this construction, we provide a more elaborate static no arbitrage pricing formula than Black-Sholes in the above scheme. Moreover, using our pricing formula, we find a volatility curve which fits with striking accuracy the synthetic data used by Henderson et al. [10].

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.63-77
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• 2003

Group buying is one of the most popular transaction patterns on the internet at least in Korea. Nevertheless, it is hard to find academic researches for it in view of consumer behavior. In this paper, we analyze factors which determine consumer's attitude toward and intention of participation in Internet group buying by comparison of Internet individual one. For this purpose, we propose “lowering price”, “decreasing risk” and “reducing transaction cost” as relative advantages and "lack of product assortment" and "delay of time" as relative disadvantages over individual buying on the Internet. For empirical test, Internet users who have some experiences of individual buying but not group ones on the Internet are surveyed and analyzed. In result, a satisfying model fitness for structural equation model is derived and most hypotheses except the relationship between "decreasing risk" and "attitude toward Internet group buying" are accepted. Our results provide not only academic contribution by suggestion of a research framework but also practical insight by discussion of diverse features in Internet group buying.verse features in Internet group buying.

• Archives of design research
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.103-110
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• 2001

The purpose of this study is to test the typicality effects to aesthetic response according to product orientation (design-oriented vs function- oriented) and perceived purchase risk. This study overcame the limitations of existing researches which haven't had the consensus about the relationship between typicality and preference and consequently suggested the typicality effect to aesthetic response by analyzing this relationship with product orientation and perceived purchase risk. The results of this study showed the inverted U-shaped relationship in design-oriented products and no relationship in function-oriented products between typicality and preference.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.45
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• pp.3-31
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• 2010

The passing of property in goods affects contractual rights and duties. It is the point on which depend issues as diverse as the seller's entitlement to sue for the price and the incidence of risk of loss of casualty to the goods. The passing of property may also have an incidental effect on the remedies of the parties, including specific performance. But Incoterms do not deal with how the goods should reach the agreed point of delivery. While Incoterms specifically deal with questions of division of risk of loss of or damage to the goods between seller and buyer, they do not deal with property or transfer of title of the goods. Indeed, it was not even possible to agree on uniform rules on these questions in the CISG. Therefore, the parties to a contract of sale should provide for these matters themselves in the contract of sale and closely observe what the applicable law requires for the transfer of ownership to the goods and other property rights.