• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Price

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Analysis of Global Food Market and Food-Energy Price Links: Based on System Dynamics Approach

  • Kim, Gyu-Rim
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.105-124
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    • 2009
  • The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.

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Evaluating Stock Value using Data Envelopment Analysis (자료포괄분석(DEA)을 이용한 주식의 가치 평가)

  • Kim, Bum-Seok;Kim, Myung-S.;Min, Jae-H.
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2011
  • This study suggests a DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) based model to evaluate the value of corporate stock. The model integrating PER(Price-Earning Ratio), PBR(Price-BookValue Ratio), PSR(Price-Sales Ratio) and volatility in DEA structure has an advantage of overcome the limitation of traditional financial ratio based models. In order to show the effectiveness of the suggested model. we compare the performance of portfolio composed by DEA approach with those of portfolios made by traditional approaches such as PER, PBR, and PSR in terms of stock return and volatility. Specifically, we use the data of all the enterprises listed on the S&P 500 in the U.S. in 2007 and 2009 as the sample data for the experiments. The results of the experiments show that the performance of the DEA approach is clearly better than those of other approaches. Particularly, in sharply plummeting market, the performance of the DEA approach is shown to be prominently better than those of other approaches as the DEA approach reflects investment risk as well as profitability and growth. The DEA score combining the existing investment indices may serve as a useful barometer for selecting a stable and profitable portfolio.

The Effect of Yearly Purchase Price Pattern in Electricity Transaction Between Utility and IPPs (IPP와의 전력거래에서 연도별 요금지불 구조의 영향)

  • 김창수;진병문;권영한
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.265-271
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    • 1999
  • In recent years, the electric utility industry in Korea has undergone fast change. Private power generation has been introduced by competitive bidding to improve economic efficiency and to strengthen the competitive generation market. In these private generation projects, the yearly pattern of purchase price between the utility and IPPs is very important. Currently, the levelized payment schedule is applied to capacity payment, and price escalation rates are reflected to energy payment. In this paper, we Proposed different patterns of payment and analyzed the outcomes. As a result, we found possibility of applying the partial front-loading pattern in Korean market to share the risk of the long-term business. And, the importance of discount rate is also found.

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The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Housing and Business Cycle (경기변동과 주택형태별 수익률에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.455-475
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    • 2009
  • According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.

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The Composition of Pharmaceutical Expenditure in National Health Insurance and Implications for Reasonable Spending (건강보험 약품비 구성 분석을 통한 지출효율화 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Hye-Jae
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.360-368
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    • 2018
  • Background: The proportion of pharmaceutical expenditure out of total health-care expenditure in South Korea is high. In 2016, 25.7% of national health insurance (NHI) spending was for pharmaceuticals. Given the increasing demands for the access to newly introduced medicines and following increase in pharmaceutical spending, the management of NHI pharmaceutical expenditure is becoming more difficult. Methods: This study analyzed the data claimed to NHI for pharmaceutical reimbursement from 2010 to 2016. Results: The policy implications with respect to the trends and problems in spending by drug groups were elicited. First, the proportion of off-patent drugs spending which were treated to chronic disease was much higher than anti-cancer drug spending. Second, the spending to the newly introduced high-costed medicine increased, however, current price-reduction mechanism was not sufficient to manage their expenditure efficiently. Conclusion: Our system seems to need several revisions to improve the efficiency of pharmaceutical expenditure and to cope with high-costed medicines. This study suggested that the prices of off-patent drugs need to be regularly readjusted and the Price-Volume Agreement System should be operated more flexibly as well.

The Effects of Intellectual Capital and Financial Leverage on Evaluating Market Performance

  • OBEIDAT, Samer;AL-TAMIMI, Khaled;HAJJAT, Emad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.201-208
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to identify the key factors that affect the financial market performance (Price-Earnings Model) through a sample of 35 public shareholding industrial companies on the Amman Stock Exchange for the period 2010-2019, using statistical models and methods, such as the Simple Linear Regression Model, Correlation Coefficient, and dispersion board. The study results showed the nonexistence of a statistically significant effect between the intellectual capital and market value added (MVA) and market performance. Results also showed a statistically significant positive effect between financial leverage (FL) and the market performance, where the interpreted variation reached 64%. It showed from the analysis results that the relationship between (MVA) and market performance (P/E) agrees with the study hypotheses, while the result related to (FL) disagrees with the study hypotheses. The study recommends that public shareholding industrial companies should focus more on intellectual capital and show its value in the annual financial statements and reports, and those companies that have high profitability and the chance to hold gains and profits should rely less on debt and more on retained earnings, due to the high risk of debt and in line with the present unstable circumstances in Jordan, especially in light of the global Covid-19 crisis.

Pricing Strategy within the U.S. Streaming Services Market: A Focus on Netflix's Price Plans

  • Kweon, Heaji J;Kweon, Sang Hee
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2021
  • Online streaming wars are intensifying. Netflix is known as the market leader in the streaming business. However, since 2019, Netflix has been losing subscribers in the United States and is at a turning point where it needs to reassess its current position in the market. While Netflix is losing dominance, rivals Amazon Prime and Hulu continue to gain market shares. Studies from Deloitte and PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated a new shift in the streaming landscape caused by the abundance of streaming options and rising subscription costs. Recent surveys showed that consumers are excited about new streaming services, such as Disney +. Nearly two-thirds of consumers intend to terminate or downgrade one or more of their current subscriptions to make room for a new service. Moreover, it seems that consumers want ad-supported options. In Deloitte's latest Digital Media Trends survey, 65% responded that they would watch ads to eliminate or reduce subscription costs. Seventy percent of Hulu's subscribers choose its lower-priced ad-supported plan. NBC recently launched its own streaming service, Peacock, with a free ad-supported option. This opposes Netflix's brand identity of "no ads" and premium differentiation. With increasing pressure from competition and the growing risk of subscriber loss, Netflix needs to diversify its price plans. The company could try implementing the lower-priced mobile-only plan they are currently testing or plan to test in other regions. Netflix should also consider features or benefits for loyal subscribers to maintain a stronger consumer base.

An Analysis of Relationship between the Level of Satisfaction of Domestic Products and Purchase Intention of Imported Organic Products (국내산 친환경농산물 만족도와 수입산 유기농산물 구입의향 관계 분석)

  • Han, Jae-Hwan;Jeong, Hak-Kyun
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.159-171
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the level of satisfaction of domestic Environment-friendly agricultural products and purchase intent of imported organic products. To accomplish the objective of the study a consumer survey was administered for quantitative analysis regarding consumption patterns. The bivariate probit with sample selection model was employed for empirical analysis on the relationship. The estimation results showed that to increase continuously the consumption, it is necessary to improve the quality satisfaction compared to the price, and that it is also necessary to increase the reliability of the certification system and the awareness that the consumption is helpful for health promotion to increase the quality satisfaction compared to price. In addition, it was concluded that in order to induce the purchase of domestic organic products rather than imported organic products, efforts to improve the safety of domestic products, remove the risk of residual pesticides, and increase the reliability of domestic products compared to imported products are needed. Therefore, to reduce the proportion of purchases of imported organic products and increase the consumption of domestic products, raising awareness that the consumption is conducive to health promotion, enhancing the safety of domestic products, and providing accurate information on the safety of imported products are required.

Stock Price Prediction and Portfolio Selection Using Artificial Intelligence

  • Sandeep Patalay;Madhusudhan Rao Bandlamudi
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2020
  • Stock markets are popular investment avenues to people who plan to receive premium returns compared to other financial instruments, but they are highly volatile and risky due to the complex financial dynamics and poor understanding of the market forces involved in the price determination. A system that can forecast, predict the stock prices and automatically create a portfolio of top performing stocks is of great value to individual investors who do not have sufficient knowledge to understand the complex dynamics involved in evaluating and predicting stock prices. In this paper the authors propose a Stock prediction, Portfolio Generation and Selection model based on Machine learning algorithms, Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used for stock price prediction, Mathematical and Statistical techniques are used for Portfolio generation and Un-Supervised Machine learning based on K-Means Clustering algorithms are used for Portfolio Evaluation and Selection which take in to account the Portfolio Return and Risk in to consideration. The model presented here is limited to predicting stock prices on a long term basis as the inputs to the model are based on fundamental attributes and intrinsic value of the stock. The results of this study are quite encouraging as the stock prediction models are able predict stock prices at least a financial quarter in advance with an accuracy of around 90 percent and the portfolio selection classifiers are giving returns in excess of average market returns.

CM at Risk Case Study on Guaranteed Maximum Price Contract - Focused on Cases for USA - (책임형 CM 발주방식의 최대공사비보증계약 사례연구 - 미국 공공발주 프로젝트 사례 중심 -)

  • Jeong, Jinhak;Han, Jonghoon;Lee, Joosung;Ahn, Yonghan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.22-30
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to derive basic data of the Guaranteed Maximum Price(GMP) process and to present specimens that can be used at the time of execution of CM at Risk project in South Korea. CM at Risk project is issued in South Korea, but the actual data is lack. On the other hand, CM at Risk project is universalized and the market of the CM at Risk is steadily growing. Because of that, in this study, The United States cases was selected as a sample. GMP consists of CM's fee, CM contingency, project direct cost, project indirect cost, allowance. GMP negotiations are performed before the end of design completion, and after 3 rounds of estimation comparison, preliminary GMP is confirmed. GMP can be multiple contract and it is useful for Procurement of long lead materials and early construction. If the actual cost is lower than expected GMP, sharing of the saving is an option since the conflict of interests between the client and the contractor can occur.