• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Price

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A Study on the Strategies of Hedging System Trading Using Single-Stock Futures (개별주식선물을 이용한 시스템트레이딩 헤징전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Nam-Hyun
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2014
  • We investigate the hedging effectiveness of incorporating single-stock futures into the corresponding stocks. Investing in only stocks frequently causes too much risk when market volatility suddenly rises. We found that single-stock futures help reduce the variance and risk levels of the corresponding stocks invested. We use daily prices of Korean stocks and their corresponding futures for the time period from December 2009 to August 2013 to test the hedging effect. We also use system trading technique that uses automatic trading program which also has several simulation functions. Moving average strategy, Stochastic's strategy, Larry William's %R strategy have been considered for hedging strategy of the futures. Hedging effectiveness of each strategy was analyzed by percent reduction in the variance between the hedged and the unhedged variance. The results clearly showed that examined hedging strategies reduce price volatility risk compared to unhedged portfolio.

The Development and Application of Office Price Index for Benchmark in Seoul using Repeat Sales Model (반복매매모형을 활용한 서울시 오피스 벤치마크 가격지수 개발 및 시험적 적용 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2020
  • As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.

An Analysis on the pass-through of Korean export prices of Exchange rate changes (글로벌 금융위기 이후 환률변동과 수출가격)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.229-249
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    • 2011
  • The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

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GMP Calculation Process in CM at Risk for Public Construction Project (공공 건설사업 CM at Risk 적용시 GMP 산출 프로세스)

  • Kim, Gun-Sung;Jin, Zheng-Xun;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.48-49
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    • 2020
  • Recently the diversification of construction market and the continuous reduction of construction amount are raising the need of alternative delivery method in the construction industry. The foreign advanced companies actively adopted the CM at Risk delivery method where they perform the service of agent CM in the design phase, and agree GMP(Guaranteed Maximum Price) with the client at the time of 50~80% completion of design. Even in Korea they began to apply that method to pilot projects. In CM at Risk, through the early participation of builder, the level of design completion can be improved and the change order and construction period delay can be minimized. On the other hand, GMP is usually calculated when the design is about 80% complete, so there is uncertainty in the construction cost. Therefore, in this research, the increased amounts of construction cost are analyzed in a number of public construction projects, and GMP calculation process is proposed using the analysis results and CBR(Case-Based Reasoning) technique to reduce the construction cost increase in the construction phase.

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Market Risk Premium in Korea: Analysis and Policy Implications (한국의 시장위험 프리미엄: 분석과 시사점)

  • Se-hoon Kwon;Sang-Buhm Hahn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - This study provides an overview of existing research and practices related to market risk premiums(MRP), and empirically estimates the MRP in Korea, particularly using the related option prices. We also seek to improve the current MRP practices and explore alternative solutions. Design/methodology/approach - We present the option price-based MRP estimation method, as proposed by Martin (2017), and implement it within the context of the Korean stock market. We then juxtapose these results with those derived from other methods, and compare the characteristics with those of the United States. Findings - We found that the lower limit of the MRP in the Korean stock market shows a much lower value compared to the US. There seems to be the possibility of a market crash, exchange rate volatility, or a lack of option trading data. We investigated the predictive power of the estimated values and discovered that the weighted average of the results of various methodologies using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is superior to the individual method's results. Research implications or Originality - It is required to explore various methods of estimating MRP that are suitable for the Korean stock market. In order to improve the estimation methodology based on option prices, it is necessary to develop the methods using the higher-order(third order or above) moments, or consider additional risk factors such as the possibility of a crash.

Portfolio of Real Estate Price Index for ICT Environment Study on Diversification Effect (ICT 환경에서 부동산 가격지수 포트폴리오 분산효과에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Dae-Seub;Min, Guy-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 2014
  • ICT environment to the survey released by the Bureau of Statistics 2012 Household Finance. Korean Welfare survey 24.9% of all households in financial assets, real estate is about three times more than 69.9%, respectively. The problem is that the information is slow and income deciles(deciles 1-4), a relatively high proportion of households with low(78.8 to 69%) of the real estate assets of the expansion of the world economy with low growth and low uncertainty, work from home due to the information changes in the structure of the economy, such as increases in real estate prices remain exposed to the risk of a phenomenon such as Pour House Pour Talent and low-income people is bound to be more serious symptoms. This low correlation is by constructing a composite asset portfolio, the weighted average risk of the individual assets while increasing overall revenue decrease that risk is based on the principle of portfolio by type and different areas in the ICT environment in a portfolio of real estate price index low correlation to financial assets by including the effect of dispersion stable complex asset portfolio and empirical Growth was divided.

A Study on the Accomodation of Trade Usage or Practice in CISG (UN 통일매매법(統一賣買法)(CISG)에서 국제무역관습(國際貿易慣習)의 수용여부(受容與否)에 관한 고찰(考察))

  • Oh, Won-Suk
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.12
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    • pp.163-200
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    • 1999
  • The CISG entrusts many problems to trade or practice : for example the problems which can't be compromised between civil law system and common law system ; the problems in which the application of usage or practice in universal ; the problems of rapid change according to trade circumstance. The purpose of this paper is to confirm whether the CISG is accomodating the usage or practice in its Text, and to find which topic is most closely related to usage or practice in CISG. The Article 9 in the CISG is a provision of usages or practices applicable to contract. But the problems of the CISG in the accomodation of usages or practices are that it lacks the definitions of ‘usage’ and ‘practices’, the CISG is not concerned with the validity of any usage according to Article 4, and the application of usage or practice may differ in litigation and arbitration The topics such as delivery of goods, payment of price and the transfer of risk are most closely related to usages and practices. The delivery of goods and the transfer of risk are determined by the trade terms like FOB or CIF. But the method of identification and the risk for the sale of goods in transit can't be determined by the trade terms in INCOTERMS(1990). So the CISG may serve as complementing role. In payment of price, the trade term does not refer to the time and place of payment. So the CISG may be the basis of interpretation. Likewise the usages and practices such as trade terms, UCP and so on, can be expected to play a significant role in complementing and interpreting the CISG.

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Impact of Price Control on Drug Expenditure and Factors Associated with the Drug Switch among Statins: Analysis of HIRA-NPS Data (스타틴 의약품의 약가인하 효과 및 약물 교체 관련 요인: 건강보험심사평가원 환자표본자료를 이용한 분석)

  • Lee, Hye-Jae;Lee, Tae-Jin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.112-123
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    • 2013
  • Background: Under the risk of financial sustainability of National Health Insurance, Korean government attempted a series of regulations over pharmaceutical prices. The first price-cut was implemented to the hyperlipidemial treatments, and the prices of statins were reduced on 15th, April in 2009. The purposes of this study are 1) to investigate the impact of this price-cut on pharmaceutical expenditure, and 2) to identify the factors associated with drug-switch among statins. Methods: Using the national patients sample data, this study conducted time series analysis on the expenditures, prices, and volumes of statin drugs. To understand the factors associated with drug-switch, the multinomial logit model was analyzed at the patients level. Results: The results of time series analysis demonstrated that the price-cut of hyperlipidemic medicines did not lead to the reduced expenditure, suggesting the increased volume was the major cause. The multinomial logit analysis identified the switch of healthcare provider as the significant factor that was highly associated with drug-switch, implying the physicians' preference was the major motivation of drug-switch. Conclusion: Without control of utilization, price regulation itself could not reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. This suggests that the pharmaceutical regulations should be implemented on the basis of understanding of provider behaviors. The findings of this study will form the first step for further empirical studies.

A Study on Essential Concepts, Tools, Techniques and Methods of Stock Market Trading: A Guide to Traders and Investors (주식 거래의 필수 개념, 도구, 기법 및 방법에 관한 연구: 거래자와 투자자를 위한 안내서)

  • Sukhendu Mohan Patnaik;Debahuti Mishra
    • Advanced Industrial SCIence
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.21-38
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    • 2023
  • An attempt has been made in this article to discuss the fundamentals of technical analysis of the stock market. A retail investor or trader may not have the wherewithal to source that kind of information. Technical analysis requires a candlestick chart only. Most of the brokers in India provide charting solutions as well. Studying the price action of a security or commodity or Forex generally indicates a price pattern. Prices react at certain levels and widely known as support and resistance levels. Since whatever is happening with the price of the security is considered to be a part of a pattern or cycle which has already played out sometime in the past, these studies help a keen technical analyst to identify with certain probability, the future movement of the price. Study of the candlestick patterns, price action, volumes and indicators offer the opportunities to identify a high probability trade with probable target and a stop loss. A trader or investor can take high probability trade or position and control only her losses.

A study on the efficient application of the replicating portfolio according to the tax imposition within K-OTC market for activating financial transactions of small-medium and venture business (중소 벤처 기업의 금융거래 활성화를 위하여 K-OTC 시장에서 조세부과에 따른 복제포트폴리오의 효율적 활용에 대한 연구)

  • Yoo, Joon-soo
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2018
  • This paper makes a theoretical approach to the differences between transaction tax and capital gains tax when the financial instruments are traded and imposed taxes in K-OTC market, a newly emerging off-board market. Since it is difficult to reduce risk to the level which investors would like to pursue - depending on the taxation methods of portfolio-composed financial instruments - when it comes to forming a synthetic bond to hedge risk, this paper also seeks for effective taxation methods to make this applicable. First of all, to thoroughly review the taxation balance of synthetic bonds, this paper analyzed the effects of the transaction tax and capital gains tax imposed upon synthetic bonds according to the changes in final stock price and strike price in K-OTC market, and analyzed after-tax profit differences among them depending on whether income tax deduction took place or not. As a result of the research upon the tax gap in transaction tax and capital gains tax according to the changes of final stock prices, it was shown that imposing transaction tax is more likely to be effective for some level of risk hedging with replicating portfolio considering taxation policies and financial markets, since the effect of the transaction tax has a much lower tax gap than that of capital gains tax. In addition, in relation to whether income tax deduction was permitted or not, it was proved that the effect of the transaction tax and the capital gains tax vary depending on the variation in the strike price. Above all, it was shown that if the strike price is lower than the stock price, the transaction tax will be less affected by the existence of income tax deduction than the capital gains tax, while both will be equally affected by the existence of income tax deduction if the strike price is higher than the stock price. Further study would be to demonstrate the validation of this in the K-OTC market with actual financial instruments and, also, to seek for a more systematic hedging method by using a ratio analysis approach to the calculation of the option transaction tax