• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.2166-2176
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• 2017

Electricity price prediction plays a crucial part in making the schedule and managing the risk to the competitive electricity market participants. However, it is a difficult and challenging task owing to the characteristics of the nonlinearity, non-stationarity and uncertainty of the price series. This study proposes a hybrid improved strategy which incorporates data preprocessor components and a forecasting engine component to enhance the forecasting accuracy of the electricity price. In the developed forecasting procedure, the Seasonal Adjustment (SA) method and the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) technique are synthesized as the data preprocessing component; the Coupled Simulated Annealing (CSA) optimization method and the Least Square Support Vector Regression (LSSVR) algorithm construct the prediction engine. The proposed hybrid approach is verified with electricity price data sampled from the power market of New South Wales in Australia. The simulation outcome manifests that the proposed hybrid approach obtains the observable improvement in the forecasting accuracy compared with other approaches, which suggests that the proposed combinational approach occupies preferable predication ability and enough precision.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.28 no.7
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• pp.97-105
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• 2014

This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002~2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP.

• East Asian mathematical journal
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.553-566
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• 2021

In the over-the-counter market, option's buyers could have a problem for default risk caused by option's writers. In addition, many participants try to maximize their benefits obviously in investing the financial derivatives. Taking all these circumstances into consideration, we deal with the vulnerable power options under a constant elasticity variance (CEV) model. We derive an analytic pricing formula for the vulnerable power option by using the asymptotic analysis, and then we verify that the analytic formula can be obtained accurately by comparing our solution with Monte-Carlo price. Finally, we examine the effect of CEV on the option price based on the derived solution.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.15
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• pp.239-261
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• 2001

There are many kinds of risk in int'l trade by internet network, such as credit risk, mercantile risk, contingency risk, exchange risk, physical risk and the risk on internet network. Especially, risk management against credit risk and the risk on internet network are very important. The former is conventional but more important these days. The latter is a new risk that has been incurred owing to the int'l trade by internet network. The system of risk management against the former are firstly, to surely research credit of counterpart by internet, secondly, to certify the entity by password or fingerprint, thirdly, to pay the price under a letter of credit, fourthly, to use the system of int'l trade such as bolero, trade card, finally, to use the authority of electronic trade services. The system of risk management against the latter are firstly, to install the firewall on the own computer network, secondly, to entrust the management own computer network to the network security services firm, thirdly, to electronically communicate with counterpart through the certification authority, finally, to insure against the own network risk with the security insurance company.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.643-665
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• 2014

We study the optimal policy of the contracual arrangement in raising the debt-to-equity ratio for oil, gas and mining project finance deals. We investigate the impact of the optimal contractual relationship between counterparties on the soundness of projects, differing in output price volatility and country risk. Key findings are: first, the existence of EPC sponsors and off-takers generally raises the debt-to-equity ratio. In particular, EPC sponsors and off-taking sponsors jointly mitigate the credit risk caused by counntry risk. Seocond, off-taking and EPC contracts jointly help mitigate the credit risk caused by the country risk, rather than the price volatility. Indeed, the contractual structure raises the debt-to-equity ratio.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.69-101
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• 2008

We empirically investigate the option leverage property that should be priced under much more general conditions than the Black-Scholes assumptions and the option redundancy property that is based on the assumption that the underlying asset price follows a one-dimensional diffusion process and examine the systematic risk factors implied in the return dynamics of KOSPI 200 index options. We find that the option leverage pattern is similar to the theoretical result but the options are not redundant securities and in the nonlinear structure of option payoffs, the traders of KOSPI 200 index options price the systematic higher-moments and the negative volatility risk premium significantly affects delta-hedged gains, even after accounting for jump fears. But the empirical evidence on jump risk preference is less conclusive.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.327-347
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• 2008

This study proposes a new answering mechanism of deciding whether to purchase or not under uncertainty-real risk answering mechanism (R-RAM) for real transaction and hypothetical risk answering mechanism (H-RAM). It IS also. shown that the traditional answering mechanism (TAM) assumed in most of existing contingent valuation methods should be applied in a real transaction without uncertainty. While the willingness to pay (WTP) being simply compared with the bidding price m TAM, the mean of WTP should be greater than the bidding pnce at least by the risk premium for a purchase decision m R-RAM and H-RAM. Only difference between R-RAM and H-RAM is risk premium. The H-RAM takes a smaller risk premium than the R-RAM. This study proposes the contingent valuation method (CVM) with H-RAM could be an alternative to reducing the under-or over-estimation of WTP by comparing the WTP estimates obtained from three different CVMs with TAM, R-RAM and H-RAM.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2004.06a
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• pp.488-493
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• 2004

This study discusses what determinants are important to enter the worldwide railroad market. Survey analysis is used to decide the determinants of export in the international railroad markets. The Study finds that with price factors, non-price factors such as technological innovation and technological transference are important, too. For manufacturing, market experience and know - how, financing and supports in the government level in the areas of strategical alliance and regulation are essential. For non-tariff factors, technical risk and characteristics of markets are considered.

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.1355-1376
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• 2019

We investigate the valuation of participating life insurance policies with default risk under a geometric regime-switching jump-diffusion process. We derive explicit formula for the Laplace transform of the price of participating contracts by solving integro-differential system and then price them by inverting Laplace transforms.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.47-64
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• 2022

Purpose: This study's goal is to investigate how perceived risk of Japanese electronic product affect the negative emotion and the avoidance intentions. In addition, this is difference in the effect of perceived risk on negative emotions and avoidance intentions according to the presence or absence of substitutes. Research design, data and methodology: Perceived risks of Japan products are decided by four dimensions, they are economic risk, social risk, psychological risk and physical risk. The reach model is made by the theory of risk-avoid. We requested this survey to 5808 customers by panel and web site, received 559 replied. We used 528 questionnaires excluding unreliable data. For the analysis, smart PLS is used. Results: Psychological risk has influence on negative emotion and avoidance intension. Social risk and physical risk affected negative emotion, but did not directly affect avoidance intention. Economic risk affects avoidance intension, but it has no effect of negative emotion. The existence of Japanese products' substitute only effects the relationship of economic risk and avoidance intention. Conclusions: Korean consumers behavior their buying and using of Japan product as financial benefit and satisfaction, not only risk. It is suggested that Korean company should make and develop unique product with good price.