• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Assessments

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Vulnerability AssessmentunderClimateChange and National Water Management Strategy

  • Koontanakulvong, Sucharit;Suthinon, Pongsak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.204-204
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    • 2016
  • Thailand had set the National Water Management Strategy which covered main six areas in the next 12 years, i.e., by priority: (1) water for household, (2) water for agricultural and industrial production, (3) water for flood and drought management, (4) water for quality issue, (5) water from forest conservation and soil erosion protection, (6) water resources management. However due to the climate change impact, there is a question for all strategies is whether to complete this mission under future climate change. If the impact affects our target, we have to clarify how to mitigate or to adapt with it. Vulnerability assessment was conducted under the framework of ADB's (with the parameters of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and the assessments were classified into groups due to their different characteristic and the framework of the National Water Management Strategy, i.e., water supply (rural and urban), water for development (agriculture and others), water disasters (floods (flash, overflow), drought, water quality). The assessments identified the parameters concerned and weight factors used for each groups via expert group discussions and by using GIS mapping technology, the vulnerability maps were produced. The maps were verified with present water situation data (floods, drought, water quality). From the analysis result of this water resources management strategy, we found that 30% of all projects face the big impacts, 40% with low impact, and 30% for no impact. It is clear that water-related agencies have to carefully take care approximately 70% of future projects to meet water resources management strategy. It is recommended that additional issues should be addressed to mitigate the impact from climate risk on water resource management of the country, i.e., water resources management under new risk based on development scenarios, relationship with area-based problems, priority definition by viewpoints of risk, vulnerability (impact and occurrence probability in past and future), water management system in emergency case and water reserve system, use of information, knowledge and technology in management, network cooperation and exchange of experiences, knowledge, technique for sustainable development with mitigation and adaptation, education and communication systems in risk, new impact, and emergency-reserve system. These issues will be described and discussed.

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A Study on Safety Improvement for Packaged Hydrogen Refueling Station by Risk Assessment (위험성 평가를 통한 패키지형 수소충전소 안전성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • KANG, SEUNGKYU;HUH, YUNSIL;MOON, JONGSAM
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.635-641
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the components of packaged hydrogen filling station were analyzed and risk factors were examined. Risk scenarios were constructed and quantitative risk assessments were conducted through a general risk assessment program (phast/safeti 7.2). Through the risk assessment, the range of damage according to accident scenarios and the ranking that affects the damage according to the risk factors are listed, and scope of damage and countermeasures for risk reduction are provided. The quantitative risk assessment result of the packaged hydrogen filling station through this task will be used as the basic data for improving the safety of the packaged filling system and preparing safety standards.

Modeling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes during refrigerated storage of un-packaging mixed press ham at household

  • Lee, Seong-Jun;Park, Myoung-Su;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Journal of Preventive Veterinary Medicine
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.143-147
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    • 2018
  • The present study aimed to develop growth prediction models of Listeria monocytogenes in processed meat products, such as mixed pressed hams, to perform accurate microbial risk assessments. Considering cold storage temperatures and the amount of time in the stages of consumption after opening, the growth of L. monocytogenes was determined as a function of temperature at 0, 5, 10, and $15^{\circ}C$, and time at 0, 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. Based on the results of these measurements, a Baranyi model using the primary model was developed. The input parameters of the Baranyi equation in the variable temperature for polynomial regression as a secondary model were developed: $SGR=0.1715+0.0199T+0.0012T^2$, $LT=5.5730-0.3215T+0.0051T^2$ with $R^2$ values 0.9972 and 0.9772, respectively. The RMSE (Root mean squared error), $B_f$ (bias factor), and $A_f$ (accuracy factor) on the growth prediction model were determined to be 0.30, 0.72, and 1.50 in SGR (specific growth rate), and 0.10, 0.84, and 1.35 in LT (lag time), respectively. Therefore, the model developed in this study can be used to determine microorganism growth in the stages of consumption of mixed pressed hams and has potential in microbial risk assessments (MRAs).

Health Risk Assessments using GIS Method for the Abandoned Asbestos Mines (GIS 기법을 이용한 폐석면 광산의 위해성 평가)

  • Choi, Jin-Beom;Son, Ill;Noh, Jin-Hwan
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2011
  • Health risk assessments for the abandoned asbestos mine were usually performed with activity-based sampling (ABS) method, which was not a effective tool for indexing health risk on an exact small area of mine. A newly proposed potential index of health risk (PIHR) was applied with proper spatial determination of geographical information system (GIS) to assess quantitatively health risks. A new trial was applied to a certain abandoned mine in Boryong as follows: A high grade area of PIHR was estimated 7.8% of the whole area of the mine (about 27.3 ha). Based on US EPA IRIS (integrated risk information system) model considering lifetime excess cancer risk (LECR), the health risk assessment indicated that the high grade area increased from 3.0 ha through 12.9 ha to 19.5 ha with an increase of asbestos contents in soil from 0.36% (1E-04 level) through 0.1% (3E-05 level) to 0.04% (1E-05 level). These results can be effectively applied to determine reclamation area of the abandoned asbestos mine.

FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI ACCIDENT: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE ACTIONS FROM THE RISK PERSPECTIVES

  • Yang, Joon-Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2014
  • The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

An Application of Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment for An Incineration Facility (소각설비에 대한 확률론적 환경위험성 평가 적용)

  • Kim, Young Jae;Jang, E.J.;Ahn, K.S.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • A wide spectrum of risk assessments including qualitative and quantitative approaches and the analyses of its consequence were performed for an environmentally sensitive object such as incineration facility. To find out the major risk concerns, HAZOP(Hazard and Operability) were performed. Then, the frequency of hazardous gas release scenarios was calculated. Finally consequence analyses were performed for the gas release scenarios. On the basis of analyses through evaluation, a more innovative way for making a better control system or the enhancement of operation procedure was given. The results from these analyses would act as a substantial benefits for the incineration facility operator, and giving some measured information for the neighbors and the people involved.

Fall Risk Assessments Based on Postural and Dynamic Stability Using Inertial Measurement Unit

  • Liu, Jian;Zhang, Xiaoyue;Lockhart, Thurmon E.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Slip and fall accidents in the workplace are one of the top causes of work related fatalities and injuries. Previous studies have indicated that fall risk was related to postural and dynamic stability. However, the usage of this theoretical relationship was limited by laboratory based measuring instruments. The current study proposed a new method for stability assessment by use of inertial measurement units (IMUs). Methods: Accelerations at different body parts were recorded by the IMUs. Postural and local dynamic stability was assessed from these measures and compared with that computed from the traditional method. Results: The results demonstrated: 1) significant differences between fall prone and healthy groups in IMU assessed dynamic stability; and 2) better power of discrimination with multi stability index assessed by IMUs. Conclusion: The findings can be utilized in the design of a portable screening or monitoring tool for fall risk assessment in various industrial settings.

Development of a Cost-benefit Model for the Management of Structural Risk on Oil Facilities in Mexico

  • Leon, David-De;Alfredo H-S. Ang
    • Computational Structural Engineering : An International Journal
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2002
  • A reliability-based cost-benefit model for the risk management of oil platforms in the formulation of optimal decisions based on life-cycle consideration is proposed. The model is based on structural risk assessments and the integration of social issues and economics into the management decision process. Structural risks result from the platform's exposure to the random environmental loading associated with the offshore site where it is located. Several alternative designs of a typical platform are proposed and assessed from the cost-effectiveness viewpoint. This assessment is performed through the generation of cost/benefit relationships that are used, later on, to select the optimal design.

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Exposure Assessment in Risk Assessment

  • Herrick Robert F.
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.426-430
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    • 1994
  • The assessment of exposure is an important component of the risk assessment process. Exposure information is used in risk assessment in at least two ways: 1) in the identification of hazards and the epidemiologic research investigating exposure-response relationships and 2) in the development of population exposure estimates. In both of these cases, the value of a chemical risk assessment is enhanced by improvements in the quality of exposure assessments. The optimum exposure assessment is the direct measurement of population exposure; however, such measurements are rarely available. Recent developments in methods for exposure assessment allow estimates to be made that are valid representations of actual exposure. The use of these exposure estimates to classify exposures correctly enhances the likelihood that causal associations between exposure and response will be correctly identified and that population risks will be accurately assessed.

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RISK-INFORMED REGULATION: HANDLING UNCERTAINTY FOR A RATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF SAFETY

  • Zio, Enrico
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.327-348
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    • 2008
  • A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated.