• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Analysis Model

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Establishment of Analysis Process and Risk Management Model of Planning Phase in Private Development Project (민간 개발 프로젝트 기획단계의 분석절차 및 리스크 관리 모델 구축)

  • Heo Yeol;Kim Soo-Yong;Yang Jin-Kook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.408-413
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    • 2004
  • Early planning phase of private development project is an important part in mercy of failure and success of all project. Hut reliability of analysis result existing planning phase in not high to the importance. So we analyzed a basic problem point through case study and research data analysis of planning phase in private development project. After this, there is a cause in no establishment of systemic model about work processing and method of planning phase. We would like to suggest the solution through establishment of planning phase analysis processing and risk management model. We think that suggested analysis method increase the credibility of analysis result. With this, we anticipate we suggest the guideline in project process phase and that assist the effective accomplishment of project.

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A rapid modeling method and accuracy criteria for common-cause failures in Risk Monitor PSA model

  • Zhang, Bing;Chen, Shanqi;Lin, Zhixian;Wang, Shaoxuan;Wang, Zhen;Ge, Daochuan;Guo, Dingqing;Lin, Jian;Wang, Fang;Wang, Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2021
  • In the development of a Risk Monitor probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model from the basic PSA model of a nuclear power plant, the modeling of common-cause failure (CCF) is very important. At present, some approximate modeling methods are widely used, but there lacks criterion of modeling accuracy and error analysis. In this paper, aiming at ensuring the accuracy of risk assessment and minimizing the Risk Monitor PSA models size, we present three basic issues of CCF model resulted from the changes of a nuclear power plant configuration, put forward corresponding modeling methods, and derive accuracy criteria of CCF modeling based on minimum cut sets and risk indicators according to the requirements of risk monitoring. Finally, a nuclear power plant Risk Monitor PSA model is taken as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method and accuracy criteria, and the application scope of the idea of this paper is also discussed.

Developing the Sarcopenia Risk Assessment Model in Korean Adults (한국 성인의 근감소증 위험도 평가점수 모형 개발)

  • Eun-Jung, Bae;Il-Su, Park
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a model for comprehensively evaluating the risk of sarcopenia in Korean adults and to generate the sarcopenia risk scorecard model based on the results. Methods: The participants of the study were 7,118 adults without sarcopenia in the first basic survey, and a longitudinal analysis was conducted using data from the 1st to 8th survey (2006-2020) of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA). The data were analyzed using Rao-Scott chi-square test and weighted Cox proportional hazards regression of complex sampling design. The sarcopenia risk scorecard model was developed by Cox proportional hazards regression using points to double the odds (PDO) method. Results: The findings show that the risk factors for sarcopenia in Korean adults were gender, age, marital status, socioeconomic status, body mass index (BMI), regular exercise, diabetes and arthritis diagnosis. In the scorecard results, the case of exposure to the highest risk level was 100 points. The highest score range were given in the order of age over 65, low BMI, and low socioeconomic status. Conclusions: The significance of this study is that the causal relationship between various factors and the occurrence of sarcopenia in Korean adults was identified. Also, the model developed in this study is expected to be useful in detecting participants with risk of sarcopenia in the community early and preventing and managing sarcopenia through appropriate health education.

Development of Accident Cause Analysis Model for Construction Site (건설업 사고 발생원인 파악을 위한 사고 분석 모델 개발)

  • Lim, Won Jun;Kee, Jung Hun;Seong, Joo Hyun;Park, Jong Yil
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2019
  • Accident analysis models were developed to improve the construction site safety and case studies was conducted. In 2016, 86% of fatality accidents occurred due to simple unsafe acts. Structure related accidents are less frequent than the non structure related causes, but the number of casualties per accident is two times higher than non structure one. In the view of risk perception, efforts should be given to reduce accidents caused by low frequency - high consequence structure related causes. In case of structure related accident, structural safety inspection and management (including quality), ground condition management / inspection technology, and provision of risk information delivery system in case of non structure related accident were proposed as a solution. In analysis of relationship between safety related stakeholder, the main problem were the lack of knowledge of controller and player, loss of control due to duplicated controls, lack of communication system of risk information, and relative position error of controller and player.

MiR-34b/c rs4938723 Polymorphism Significantly Decreases the Risk of Digestive Tract Cancer: Meta-analysis

  • Ji, Tian-Xing;Zhi, Cheng;Guo, Xue-Guang;Zhou, Qiang;Wang, Guo-Qiang;Chen, Bo;Ma, Fei-Fei
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.6099-6104
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    • 2015
  • Background: Previous studies investigating the association between miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism and cancer risk showed inconclusive. Here, we performed meta-analysis to investigate the association between miR- 34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism and digestive cancer risk. Materials and Methods: Literature database including PubMed, OVID, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for publications concerning the association between the miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism and digestive cancer risk. Results: A total of 6 studies consisting of 3246 cases and 3568 controls were included in this meta-analysis. The combined analysis suggested the miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism significantly reduced digestive cancer risk under allelic model, homogeneous co-dominant model and recessive model (C vs T: OR=0.88, 95%CI=0.82-0.95, p-value=0.001; CC vs TT: OR =0.67, 95%CI=0.57-0.80, p-value=0.000; CC vs TT/TC: OR=0.68, 95%CI=0.58-0.80, p-value=0.000). Q-test and I2 test revealed no significant heterogeneity in all genotype comparisons. The Begger's funnel plot and Egger's test did not show significant publication bias. Conclusions: The current evidence supports the conclusion that the miR-34b/c rs4938723 polymorphism decreases an individual's susceptibility to digestive cancers.

Modeling the Aviation Safety Risk Management (항공안전 위기관리 모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Jin;Kim, Yeon-Myeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.1 s.87
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2006
  • To develop a crisis management for aviation safety, this study has defined crisis management includes risk management which is eliminates or lowers risks prior to accidents and emergency response after the accidents. This study takes a look at different kinds of crisis managements, risk managements and statistical methods of other nations and fields in order to develop a risk management model. Through surveys which have 102 risk factors that include air traffic control, maintenance and airport sectors, the weight of each risk factor was calculated and the probability was divided to develop a model for risk management. The risk management model of this study is conducted using four steps (risk management plan, risk factor identification, weight and probability analysis, decision making) and 4 standards of weight along with 5 standards of probability This study takes a look at Predictions through a quantitative method using a risk index for the risk management model An effective risk management model should have a wide and continuous collection of data and adopt various methods using this model. The crisis management could not be very effective only using a pre-active risk management. So it should also be conducted by using a pro-active response system to protect additional damage and to prevent accidents of the same nature. From the results, the most important points were the establishment of command and control accountabilities, and cooperation of related organizations.

The Evaluation-based CBR Model for Security Risk Analysis (보안위험분석을 위한 평가기반 CBR모델)

  • Bang, Young-Hwan;Lee, Gang-Soo
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.34 no.7
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    • pp.282-287
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    • 2007
  • Information society is dramatically developing in the various areas of finance, trade, medical service, energy, and education using information system. Evaluation for risk analysis should be done before security management for information system and security risk analysis is the best method to safely prevent it from occurrence, solving weaknesses of information security service. In this paper, Modeling it did the evaluation-base CBD function it will be able to establish the evaluation plan of optimum. Evaluation-based CBD(case-based reasoning) functions manages a security risk analysis evaluation at project unit. it evaluate the evaluation instance for beginning of history degree of existing. It seeks the evaluation instance which is similar and Result security risk analysis evaluation of optimum about under using planning.

Occupational Cooking and Risk of Uveal Melanoma: a Meta-analysis

  • Ge, Yi-Rui;Tian, Nong;Lu, Yan;Wu, Yong;Hu, Qin-Rui;Huang, Zheng-Ping
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.4927-4930
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    • 2012
  • Background: Many observational studies have assessed the possible association between occupational cooking and uveal melanoma risk, but reported results are controversial. Our goal was to evaluate the association between occupational cooking and uveal melanoma risk by conducting a meta-analysis of observational studies. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched through June 2012 to identify all eligible studies. The pooled odds ratio (OR) with its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was used to evaluate this association. Either a fixed- or a random-effects model were used to calculate pooled ORs. Results: Five case-control studies involving a total of 1,199 cases and 6,927 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, occupational cooking was associated with an increased risk of uveal melanoma (OR: 1.81, 95%CI 1.33-2.46, P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis by gender suggested occupational cooking was associated with increased risk of uveal melanoma in both men (OR: 2.16, 95%CI 1.06-4.40, P = 0.034) and women (OR: 1.92, 95%CI 1.19-3.10, P = 0.008). Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests that occupational cooking is associated with an increased risk of uveal melanoma in both men and women.

Analysis of Urban Network Operability and Crash Risk Change Caused by Rainfall Using Two-fluid Model Parameters (Two-fluid Model 파라미터를 활용한 강우에 따른 도시부 네트워크 운영성 및 위험도 변화 분석)

  • Lee, Jaehyeon;Moh, Daesang;Kim, Sunho;Lee, Chungwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2020
  • The Two-fluid Model, proposed by Herman and Prigogine in 1979, is a macroscopic model for describing network operability in urban networks. Since the Two-fluid Model parameters change according to the traffic flow characteristics, it is necessary to identify the cause of flow change when analyzing the operability using the parameters. This study compared the crash risk according to rainfall using the Two-fluid Model parameters, and explained that the driving behavior affects the operability of the urban network. The results of the parameters estimation showed poor network operation under rainfall condition. The factors of drivers' crash risk perception model were calculated, and driving behavior was analyzed due to crash risk according to rainfall. In both the morning and evening, drivers tended to slow down their speeds to reduce the crash risk, because the risk on rainy days could be high when the speed was the same as on a sunny days. However, the crash risk was still higher on rainy days than sunny. In the future, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between the network operation and the crash risk in various networks and to improve both.

UNCERTAINTY IN DAM BREACH FLOOD ROUTING RESULTS FOR DAM SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT

  • Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.215-234
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    • 2002
  • Uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results was analyzed in order to provide the basis fer the investigation of their effects on the flood damage assessments and dam safety risk assessments. The Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling technique was used to generate random values for two uncertain input parameters (i.e., dam breach parameters and Manning's n roughness coefficients) of a dam breach flood routing analysis model. The flood routing results without considering the uncertainty in two input parameters were compared with those with considering the uncertainty. This paper showed that dam breach flood routing results heavily depend on the two uncertain input parameters. This study indicated that the flood damage assessments in the downstream areas can be critical if uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results are considered in a reasonable manner.

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